Getting brexit done!

[Salisbury Fox]

4 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

It's up for the EU to decide about that, I'm not talking about Scotland going fully politically and financially independent and joining the EU as a separate nation but Scotland remaining in the EU and remaining in the UK. We've seen that over Northern Ireland the EU (and begrudgingly the UK and DUP) have been willing to treat that part of the UK differently to Great Britain. I see no reason why Scotland shouldn't be allowed to remain within the EU. 

I think the EU have had their fingers burnt with Greece and so I doubt there is the appetite for it tbh. It is far from certain that Scotland will vote for independence despite what Sturgeon says. I am assuming that there will be less reliance on the black gold that was the basis for most of the the white paper this time and they still have not answered the currency question.  The impending Salmond court case may throw a spanner in the works too. 

[LiberalFox]

12 minutes ago, Salisbury Fox said:

I think the EU have had their fingers burnt with Greece and so I doubt there is the appetite for it tbh. It is far from certain that Scotland will vote for independence despite what Sturgeon says. I am assuming that there will be less reliance on the black gold that was the basis for most of the the white paper this time and they still have not answered the currency question.  The impending Salmond court case may throw a spanner in the works too. 

I wouldn't count on them not voting for independence, naive to think it'll be a fully rational decision based on economics. If they do go independent it'll be bad for Scotland and bad for England. If the EU reject Scottish membership as part of a region of the Uk that's a whole lot better than Scotland going independent first and then being rejected!  

[Salisbury Fox]

5 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I wouldn't count on them not voting for independence, naive to think it'll be a fully rational decision based on economics. If they do go independent it'll be bad for Scotland and bad for England. If the EU reject Scottish membership as part of a region of the Uk that's a whole lot better than Scotland going independent first and then being rejected!  

I agree that it will be bad for us both. I am not saying they wouldn’t vote for independence, just that it will be a lot harder for them this time round as all of the negatives of Brexit are now exposed and they have yet to address the currency and deficit questions previously brought out. That’s before you talk about frictionless trade and that independence is likely to bring more austerity.  They have some significant issues to address too which can’t all be blamed on Westminster i.e. the drugs issues, lower life expectancy, failing education.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

This I think is a key point - we are looking to balance addition controls on free movement with additional controls on goods.  We know the tensions already, and it is much harder to face face turning off access than it is to delay turning it on.  I think with a positive approach we should get there by the deadline.

 

It's not just a case of ending free movement. I'm sure that the EU are assuming that will be a UK demand. That would be balanced by a certain level of trade friction. That's already assumed, I think.

 

The "level playing field" concept also comes into the equation. If the UK wants the ability to diverge from EU standards/regulations on employment, environment, product standards etc, the EU is likely to only agree a very remote trading relationship.

As Boris had the "level playing field" moved from the WA into the non-binding Political Declaration, that strongly suggests that he wants the right to diverge......the December 2020 deadline & continued power of the ERG & expectations among Tory party members & voters are further reasons to think that we are heading for either a very limited, high-friction deal with right to diverge or No Deal.

 

There are also suggestions that the UK staying in close alignment with the EU would make a UK-US trade deal difficult. I lack the knowledge to say whether that is true, but it's certainly what Trump has been saying.

 

As I said, anyone who believes we're heading for a close trading relationship with the EU (with little economic/social impact) is deluding themselves, I think.

 

There's also the fact that, with the WA, the UK has already signed away several of its most important levers for exerting pressure on the EU: by passing the WA, we commit to paying the divorce settlement, protecting EU citizens' rights & avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland (though not in the Irish Sea between GB and NI).

 

Of course, the EU would prefer a close deal - and certainly to avoid a No Deal.....but not at the cost of undermining their own Single Market or employment/environment/consumer rights standards. 

After the WA, we'll be in an even weaker negotiating position than we were before. A high-friction deal or No Deal will harm the EU, but it will harm the UK massively more, so they have no reason to capitulate and offer a close trading relationship if UK wants to diverge on standards/regulations.

[Beechey]

1 hour ago, LiberalFox said:

I wouldn't count on them not voting for independence, naive to think it'll be a fully rational decision based on economics. If they do go independent it'll be bad for Scotland and bad for England. If the EU reject Scottish membership as part of a region of the Uk that's a whole lot better than Scotland going independent first and then being rejected!  

Economics I feel would be the driver of any debate. Scotland is now absolutely leaving the EU with the rest of the UK come the end of January, meaning if it left the UK, it would be out of both the EU market (18% of Scottish exports) and UK market (65% of Scottish exports). I say it a lot, but Scottish independence is even crazier than no-deal Brexit. It's genuinely cuckoo-land stuff. The currency issue alone buried the last referendum, that issue is still not solved, and the fiscal outlook for Scotland given the price of oil is so much worse than in 2014. Add on top of that a probably hard border with the country you do a vast majority of your trade with in favour of membership of an organisation that takes not even 20% of your exports and you're looking at a hard sell for the 'Yes' campaign.

Edited 17 December 2019 by Beechey

[Innovindil]

Meanwhile, as ceremonial matters continue at Westminster, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has given his reaction to the news that Boris Johnson plans to formally enshrine in law a UK-EU post-Brexit trade deal deadline of 31 December 2020.

 

"We will do the maximum," Mr Barnier told reporters, when asked if it was possible to reach such a deal in just 11 months.

 

Even Barnier getting in the Christmas spirit of getting brexit done. To the maximum! 

 

[Guest MattP]

People are getting ridiculously carried away about Scottish independence. 

 

Yes the SNP swept the election but they didn't even hit 40% of the vote.

 

The debate will be a nightmare for them as well, the austerity they'll have to go through to join the EU, the border between the countries. The loss of trade from the UK - I think the best chance they had was 2014.

[Innovindil]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

People are getting ridiculously carried away about Scottish independence. 

 

Yes the SNP swept the election but they didn't even hit 40% of the vote.

 

The debate will be a nightmare for them as well, the austerity they'll have to go through to join the EU, the border between the countries. The loss of trade from the UK - I think the best chance they had was 2014.

New stick. Same horse. 

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

People are getting ridiculously carried away about Scottish independence. 

 

Yes the SNP swept the election but they didn't even hit 40% of the vote.

 

The debate will be a nightmare for them as well, the austerity they'll have to go through to join the EU, the border between the countries. The loss of trade from the UK - I think the best chance they had was 2014.

 

They got 45% of the vote, according to the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/scotland

 

I certainly agree that they're a long way from getting independence sewn up, though.

 

But IF there's an adverse impact from the Brexit outcome in Dec. 2020, and IF they then win a majority in the Scottish elections in 2021......their best chance might come in 2021.

Of course, the UK Govt might just refuse to authorise a referendum.....where that would lead, I don't know, but possibly to an awful lot of strife.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

They got 45% of the vote, according to the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/scotland

 

I certainly agree that they're a long way from getting independence sewn up, though.

 

But IF there's an adverse impact from the Brexit outcome in Dec. 2020, and IF they then win a majority in the Scottish elections in 2021......their best chance might come in 2021.

Of course, the UK Govt might just refuse to authorise a referendum.....where that would lead, I don't know, but possibly to an awful lot of strife.

Thanks, I read they got 39% - no idea where that came from.

 

I just think they are facing a nightmare in the debate, they somehow got away with it last time but won't next. 

 

The Scottish elections will be key - no majority then no chance of a referendum. The Unionists need to get their house in order.

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Thanks, I read they got 39% - no idea where that came from.

 

I just think they are facing a nightmare in the debate, they somehow got away with it last time but won't next. 

 

The Scottish elections will be key - no majority then no chance of a referendum. The Unionists need to get their house in order.

 

I agree that the Scottish elections are likely to be key.

 

But however much the unionists get their house in order, I reckon the Brexit outcome/impact could be crucial.

If that's benign, the SNP might do badly in the Scottish elections, having been in power there for so long.

But if Brexit has serious adverse impact after December 2020, that could absolutely play into the SNP's hands.

 

I actually wonder if Johnson has already written off Scotland & N. Ireland in his own mind.

 

Did you see that mini-speech he gave a few days ago, when he was waxing rhetorical about the "one nation" Tory Britain?

I can't remember the precise places he named but it was something like.....

"One nation, from Carlisle to Carshalton, Newcastle to Newquay, Holyhead to Hertford, Peterborough to Pembroke" (I've mostly made up the towns he named, but the point is: they were all in England or Wales).

[Carl the Llama]

3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

It is a negotiating tactic.  Why would it be a bad idea?

If it's just a negotiating tactic and we're just pretending to subscribe to a guaranteed no-deal scenario if talks aren't completed on time, all on the basis that the EU will also be incentivised to avoid being hit by the loss of free trade between us, then that's the equivalent of threatening to break our hands so we can slightly bloody the EU's face. 

 

Besides, if it's so obvious to you then don't you think the folks at Schumann will be just as aware, rendering the tactic moot?

[String fellow]

That point about Boris's one-nation speech referencing only English and Welsh towns was very well made. If Scotland does go its own way, it'll probably be partly as a result of the Scots having been taught the idea that the English are their auld enemy, based on historical events such as the Battles of Flodden (1513) and Culloden (1746). Vexillologists will no doubt have fun redesigning the Union Jack (red, white and green?) if/when the Saltire gets removed. 

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, String fellow said:

That point about Boris's one-nation speech referencing only English and Welsh towns was very well made. If Scotland does go its own way, it'll probably be partly as a result of the Scots having been taught the idea that the English are their auld enemy, based on historical events such as the Battles of Flodden (1513) and Culloden (1746). Vexillologists will no doubt have fun redesigning the Union Jack (red, white and green?) if/when the Saltire gets removed. 

 

Have a rep point for introducing me to a new word....even if my aging brain will quickly forget it again. 

 

For anyone who can't be arsed to Google.... "Vexillology is the study of the history, symbolism and usage of flags or, by extension, any interest in flags in general".

 

Perhaps we could use the flag of St. George with a Welsh dragon in one of the white quarters (at least unless and until the Taffs say farewell, too)?

 

 

[Charl91]

10 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

You are assuming that no Brexiteers voted for any party other than the Conservatives and the Brexit party.  Quite likely that some voted for a 2nd referendum, which as everyones seems to keep saying is not just a way to remain but putting the outcome fo Brexit negotiations back to the people.

I'm not making assumptions based on parties that people voted for in the G.E, but rather on polling done on people's attitudes towards staying/leaving the E.U.

 

There's too many factors at play (especially with FPTP) to say that the general election shows that there's a majority for Brexit. Polls show that opinion still hasn't really changed at all.

 

 

Edited 17 December 2019 by Charl91

[purpleronnie]

I don't really follow the whole Brexit thing anymore but why does Mr Johnson want to enshrine in law that he'll end the transition period at the end of Dec 2020?

 

We'll be out of the EU in Jan, surely that's what the brexitiers want, do they really care if the trade deal takes a little longer than a year?  Seems a bit odd that the PM is essentially making a rod for his own back.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, purpleronnie said:

I don't really follow the whole Brexit thing anymore but why does Mr Johnson want to enshrine in law that he'll end the transition period at the end of Dec 2020?

 

We'll be out of the EU in Jan, surely that's what the brexitiers want, do they really care if the trade deal takes a little longer than a year?  Seems a bit odd that the PM is essentially making a rod for his own back.

All about committing to the promises he made to the electorate - same reason he's enshrining the 34billion to the NHS in law.

[purpleronnie]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

All about committing to the promises he made to the electorate - same reason he's enshrining the 34billion to the NHS in law.

Just seems very odd that you would make a promise about a transition period.  Especially when its a trade deal that can have lasting effects for decades.

[reynard]

5 minutes ago, purpleronnie said:

Just seems very odd that you would make a promise about a transition period.  Especially when its a trade deal that can have lasting effects for decades.

With the majority he has got he can promise whatever he wants, do whatever he wants without scrutiny, and without any fall out for another 5 years. He has a major political issue with Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland but just now he's on the crest of a wave and it is best to get any decisions that might backfire out of the way at the start of his term in office rather than at the end just before any potential election. Not that this might backfire but who knows. Currency market certainly reacted nervously.

[Lionator]

Will those moaning about unelected EU bureaucrats be complaining about Zac Goldsmith and Nicky Morgan being in the cabinet?

[st albans fox]

59 minutes ago, purpleronnie said:

I don't really follow the whole Brexit thing anymore but why does Mr Johnson want to enshrine in law that he'll end the transition period at the end of Dec 2020?

 

We'll be out of the EU in Jan, surely that's what the brexitiers want, do they really care if the trade deal takes a little longer than a year?  Seems a bit odd that the PM is essentially making a rod for his own back.

 

 

He wants it done sap so he can get on with other stuff ......if left to it’s own devices, an FTA could rumble on for years and he needs the public to see benefits from brexit before the next GE ... the first year or so after a deal could possibly see a drop in GDP  ... suspect they will get a simplified deal done which can be added to ..... whilst things are being negotiated, it’s feasible that companies will not countenance big investment here .....the automated nature of currency dealing shown today as the possibility of new deal increased by a few percent, even though the general take on it is its posturing.  

[Strokes]

27 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Will those moaning about unelected EU bureaucrats be complaining about Zac Goldsmith and Nicky Morgan being in the cabinet?

Will those that said the EU is democratic stop moaning?

[Carl the Llama]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

Will those that said the EU is democratic stop moaning?

Is that a no?

[Strokes]

29 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

Is that a no?

I’ll happily support the abolition of the House of Lords, as I’ve always stated. Am I going to complain about each and every peerage? No.

 

But I’m sure your quite happy with it? As they were appointed by elected officials.

[Carl the Llama]

Just now, Strokes said:

I’ll happily support the abolition of the House of Lords, as I’ve always stated. Am I going to complain about each and every peerage? No.

 

But I’m sure your quite happy with it? As they were appointed by elected officials.

I'm actually not all that fussed but you guys looked like you were having fun being petty and I wanted to join in.