Getting brexit done!

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, oxford blue said:

Regarding the Lib Dems - they had only 10 or 11 MP's who were elected as LD's - yet Swinson must have seen an opportunityto cemet her position as leader and stop Brexit. 

 

Therefore, Swinson must have seen this an opportunity to thwart Brexit, particularly as at that time it was unclear all Conservative candidates would have to agree to Johnson's proposed Brexit.

 

Yep. They'd done well at the Euro elections in May, so no doubt thought they could mop up a decent number of Remain-voting seats, possibly holding the balance of power if the result was close.

Even on election night, after Labour had gnawed away some of their vote in polls, I expected them to do better than they did. I didn't expect the Tories to take so many Lab seats or to hold most Con/LD marginals (net loss overall).

 

I might be making a judgment with hindsight myself now in condemning them for helping Boris get his election. It might have been a calculated gamble gone wrong by Swinson.

Plus, if the SNP alone had agreed to support Johnson's motion for an election, that would have got him over the line as he just needed a simple majority for this odd bit of legislation that was used, despite the original belief that he'd need a 2/3 majority.

Whether the SNP would have been prepared to support the Tories on their own, I don't know - would have been a major risk to their reputation of being seen (as in 1979) as the party who helped the Tories to get a majority.....arguably how they SHOULD be seen!

[Guest MattP]

Last page was a great read, very enjoyable. Some points I'd throw in.

 

The Lib Dems calling an election might have seemed bizarre in hindsight but with a one line bill the Tories had the numbers with just them and the SNP. The Scots knew they would do well and they knew they also had to get an election quite quickly as the Salmomd trial will be all over the media over the next few months.

 

I stand by the point that many on the Remain side didnt see this as a battle they could lose - for whatever reason. Everything from their own echo chamber to their own dodgy polling they were gathering I imagine. There is an old This Week episode where Portillo says to Kendall you need to be careful and she doesn't take any notice at all, insistent with the other guest (think it might have been Caroline Lucas) that the country had changed its mind.

 

Impossible to predict the next election but the Tories will have to cock it up majorly to lose 60 odd seats when you see the sort of majorities they now defending, plenty of evidence many voted to GBD but also plenty of evidence when people vote Tory for the first time they stay there - there are still plenty of "Blue Labour" social conservatives to win over and there will certainly be no end to the Labour party becoming more PC/woke and all the stuff that then follows from that.

 

Totally agree with @Kopfkino on Starmer as well, I dont think hes anything special at all and I'd fully expect Boris as comfortable with him as he was with Corbyn. Very dull and his early appeasement to the left of the party already screams weakness.

[jammie82uk]

19 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Do you have any source for that "apparent" information?

Not at hand but it was widely discussed on twitter at the time it happened 

[oxford blue]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Impossible to predict the next election but the Tories will have to cock it up majorly to lose 60 odd seats

Perhaps slightly off topic, but it could be more...If SNP win Scottish elections next year by a large majority, it will become increasingly difficult for the government to refuse another independence vote. If that happens, and there is a vote for independence, it would seem Conservatives would have a majority for years to come.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, oxford blue said:

Perhaps slightly off topic, but it could be more...If SNP win Scottish elections next year by a large majority, it will become increasingly difficult for the government to refuse another independence vote. If that happens, and there is a vote for independence, it would seem Conservatives would have a majority for years to come.

Its upto the government but I dont see Boris allowing it.

 

The problem is nobody wants to be the PM who loses Scotland, you effectively become another Lord North.

[Ginger_Filbert]

Is it done yet?!

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

Is it done yet?!

 

Doesn't sound like it: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7902843/Ministers-secretly-restart-No-Deal-plans-amid-fears-trade-talks-Brussels-collapse.html 

 

"Ministers have quietly restarted No Deal planning meetings amid fears trade talks with Brussels will collapse, The Mail on Sunday can reveal. Whitehall's EU Exit Operations committee – dubbed XO and chaired by Michael Gove – met on Thursday to begin preparations for a 'disorderly December', should Brussels 'fail to grasp we really are going at the end of the year', said a Cabinet Minister who was present".

 

"Fears are mounting that Brussels's intransigence and insistence on a settlement of fishing access rights before proper trade talks begin will push the negotiations to collapse. In that scenario, the transition phase would end without new border rules in place – hence the Government's reactivation of emergency planning.Referring to the Conservatives' resounding General Election win, Mr Cummings added that Europe would be wrong to think 'a big majority means a softening of our position'. And he warned that Brussels has 'failed to grasp their judges will have no power and we are not interested in level playing fields'."

 

"The Chancellor told the Financial Times: 'There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule-taker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union and we will do this by the end of the year.'"

[FerrisBueller]

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/brexit-exemption-sought-grimsby-seafood-736984.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

 

Grimsby seeking Brexit exemption...

[Carl the Llama]

9 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/brexit-exemption-sought-grimsby-seafood-736984.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

 

Grimsby seeking Brexit exemption...

Surely that quote about not being able to have isolated free trade areas before Brexit is taken out of context?  Surely nobody's stupid enough to paint 2 potential free trade zones as a big, new opportunity for a country giving up free trade everywhere else?

Edited 20 January 2020 by Carl the Llama

[Alf Bentley]

5 hours ago, FerrisBueller said:

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/brexit-exemption-sought-grimsby-seafood-736984.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

 

Grimsby seeking Brexit exemption...

 

The fishing element of the Brexit negotiations could be surprisingly important, considering how few people are now employed in fishing in the UK.

 

UK fishing is now dominated by large corporations, who were allowed to take over most of our quotas. So, there are not many UK jobs in it (except processing) & the importance to us is mainly symbolic (history, identity etc.)....unless there's an upsurge in families / small businesses involved in fishing... But some EU countries - notably Spain & France (& Portugal?) - still have a lot more family businesses/jobs/communities dependent on it, so it will be a priority for them.

 

There's also the oddity that most fish we eat is imported, but most fish we catch is exported!

This dates from 2016 but doubt it's changed much: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4043758/EU-trade-key-success-UK-fish-industry-75-home-caught-fish-exported-majority-fish-eaten-Britons-imported.html

 

"Britons will have to eat more home-caught mackerels and fewer imported prawns if the Government fails to agree a favourable trade deal for the fishing industry with the EU following Brexit. A parliamentary report published today has found that some 75 per cent of fish caught in the UK is exported, mostly to the European Union, while the majority of fish eaten in the UK is imported. For this reason, it argued that trade agreements with the EU ‘will be a key factor to the future success of the UK fishing industry and fish processors’."

 

"Britain imports big quantities of prawns and tuna from the EU, while its main fish export is mackerel. This could be reversed if tariffs were to be imposed on such trades. The report brings in example Norway, which, although being member of the EEA, is still subject to tariffs on certain fish, which, along with export quotas, were ‘a serious obstacle to trade’, according to a Norwegian trade ministry official, Vidar Landmark. He said that while the EEA agreement allowed Norway to export white fish products tariff-free, import quotas and tariffs ranging from 2 per cent to 25 per cent were applied to other valuable species."

[I am Rod Hull]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The fishing element of the Brexit negotiations could be surprisingly important, considering how few people are now employed in fishing in the UK.

 

UK fishing is now dominated by large corporations, who were allowed to take over most of our quotas. So, there are not many UK jobs in it (except processing) & the importance to us is mainly symbolic (history, identity etc.)....unless there's an upsurge in families / small businesses involved in fishing... But some EU countries - notably Spain & France (& Portugal?) - still have a lot more family businesses/jobs/communities dependent on it, so it will be a priority for them.

 

There's also the oddity that most fish we eat is imported, but most fish we catch is exported!

This dates from 2016 but doubt it's changed much: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4043758/EU-trade-key-success-UK-fish-industry-75-home-caught-fish-exported-majority-fish-eaten-Britons-imported.html

 

"Britons will have to eat more home-caught mackerels and fewer imported prawns if the Government fails to agree a favourable trade deal for the fishing industry with the EU following Brexit. A parliamentary report published today has found that some 75 per cent of fish caught in the UK is exported, mostly to the European Union, while the majority of fish eaten in the UK is imported. For this reason, it argued that trade agreements with the EU ‘will be a key factor to the future success of the UK fishing industry and fish processors’."

 

"Britain imports big quantities of prawns and tuna from the EU, while its main fish export is mackerel. This could be reversed if tariffs were to be imposed on such trades. The report brings in example Norway, which, although being member of the EEA, is still subject to tariffs on certain fish, which, along with export quotas, were ‘a serious obstacle to trade’, according to a Norwegian trade ministry official, Vidar Landmark. He said that while the EEA agreement allowed Norway to export white fish products tariff-free, import quotas and tariffs ranging from 2 per cent to 25 per cent were applied to other valuable species."

Did the EU pay British fisherman to scrap their boats and then give grants to other nations to build more less environment friendly ships?. These behemoths the size of the Titanic are endangering a lot wildlife under the sea (including Sponge Bob Squarepants).  I think i`v made this up or it could have been a dream.... I don`t really know to be honest. 

 

For the record.... I only eat fish battered from the chip shop, rollmop and kippers. Who the heck eats prawns ffs.... 

[Guest MattP]

21 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Doesn't sound like it: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7902843/Ministers-secretly-restart-No-Deal-plans-amid-fears-trade-talks-Brussels-collapse.html 

 

"Ministers have quietly restarted No Deal planning meetings amid fears trade talks with Brussels will collapse, The Mail on Sunday can reveal. Whitehall's EU Exit Operations committee – dubbed XO and chaired by Michael Gove – met on Thursday to begin preparations for a 'disorderly December', should Brussels 'fail to grasp we really are going at the end of the year', said a Cabinet Minister who was present".

 

"Fears are mounting that Brussels's intransigence and insistence on a settlement of fishing access rights before proper trade talks begin will push the negotiations to collapse. In that scenario, the transition phase would end without new border rules in place – hence the Government's reactivation of emergency planning.Referring to the Conservatives' resounding General Election win, Mr Cummings added that Europe would be wrong to think 'a big majority means a softening of our position'. And he warned that Brussels has 'failed to grasp their judges will have no power and we are not interested in level playing fields'."

 

"The Chancellor told the Financial Times: 'There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule-taker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union and we will do this by the end of the year.'"

Sensible given No Deal is still possible. Unlikely though as neither side will really want that outcome.

 

At least this time the other side will know we are serious about potentially walking away, something they knew we weren't serious about with the make up of our last parliament.

[Brizzle Fox]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The fishing element of the Brexit negotiations could be surprisingly important, considering how few people are now employed in fishing in the UK.

 

UK fishing is now dominated by large corporations, who were allowed to take over most of our quotas. So, there are not many UK jobs in it (except processing) & the importance to us is mainly symbolic (history, identity etc.)....unless there's an upsurge in families / small businesses involved in fishing... But some EU countries - notably Spain & France (& Portugal?) - still have a lot more family businesses/jobs/communities dependent on it, so it will be a priority for them.

 

There's also the oddity that most fish we eat is imported, but most fish we catch is exported!

This dates from 2016 but doubt it's changed much: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4043758/EU-trade-key-success-UK-fish-industry-75-home-caught-fish-exported-majority-fish-eaten-Britons-imported.html

 

"Britons will have to eat more home-caught mackerels and fewer imported prawns if the Government fails to agree a favourable trade deal for the fishing industry with the EU following Brexit. A parliamentary report published today has found that some 75 per cent of fish caught in the UK is exported, mostly to the European Union, while the majority of fish eaten in the UK is imported. For this reason, it argued that trade agreements with the EU ‘will be a key factor to the future success of the UK fishing industry and fish processors’."

 

"Britain imports big quantities of prawns and tuna from the EU, while its main fish export is mackerel. This could be reversed if tariffs were to be imposed on such trades. The report brings in example Norway, which, although being member of the EEA, is still subject to tariffs on certain fish, which, along with export quotas, were ‘a serious obstacle to trade’, according to a Norwegian trade ministry official, Vidar Landmark. He said that while the EEA agreement allowed Norway to export white fish products tariff-free, import quotas and tariffs ranging from 2 per cent to 25 per cent were applied to other valuable species."

And talking of fishing.... 

 

 Yes she is a Brexit Party MEP.

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, I am Rod Hull said:

Did the EU pay British fisherman to scrap their boats and then give grants to other nations to build more less environment friendly ships?. These behemoths the size of the Titanic are endangering a lot wildlife under the sea (including Sponge Bob Squarepants).  I think i`v made this up or it could have been a dream.... I don`t really know to be honest. 

 

For the record.... I only eat fish battered from the chip shop, rollmop and kippers. Who the heck eats prawns ffs.... 

The Sandwich brigade...Roy kean knows them..

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Sensible given No Deal is still possible. Unlikely though as neither side will really want that outcome.

 

At least this time the other side will know we are serious about potentially walking away, something they knew we weren't serious about with the make up of our last parliament.

 

I agree with both bits of that first line. No Deal could happen for a multiplicity of reasons, given the number and complexity of different issues involved, extending well beyond trade.

 

The whole process could also be complicated by differences between different EU countries, as well as those between the EU27 and the UK. Different EU countries have very different individual relationships with the UK with regard to different issues and to the importance of those issues: e.g. big trade deficit with Germany v. important trading relationship & big surplus with Ireland; importance of fishing to France, Spain, Portugal; big immigration influx from Poland v. outflow to Spain; importance of defence & security relationship with France etc.

 

I agree that a complete No Deal on the future relationship seems unlikely, as it would damage both sides too much (not only on trade - stuff like defence, crime, orderly if limited migration & fishing).

For that reason, I hope (and tend to believe) that neither side will be reckless enough to either walk away or cause the other to walk away. I can see it ending up with a limited, bare-bones agreement by December. To cover crucial issues like security, data, crime, defence, fishing & a high-friction, low-alignment trade relationship (tariffs, quotas & regulatory barriers v. wide freedom to diverge)? I'm a bit unclear to what extent the EU will negotiate on migration or whether most of that will be negotiated by individual EU states?

 

I can see some issues not being sorted out by December. But I don't think the EU will be anticipating an extension to the transition period. All their talk of establishing priorities for negotiation by December suggests that, while they think it won't all be done by then, they do think that "Brexit proper" will happen then, with no extension......just with some issues unresolved or only provisionally resolved. There could be big struggles over what the priorities are, of course.

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, I am Rod Hull said:

Did the EU pay British fisherman to scrap their boats and then give grants to other nations to build more less environment friendly ships?. These behemoths the size of the Titanic are endangering a lot wildlife under the sea (including Sponge Bob Squarepants).  I think i`v made this up or it could have been a dream.... I don`t really know to be honest. 

 

For the record.... I only eat fish battered from the chip shop, rollmop and kippers. Who the heck eats prawns ffs.... 

 

I almost never eat prawns and do eat mackerel & the odd rollmop, so I'd be OK, too.....though a lot of chip shop fish is imported, I think?

 

I don't know much about the terms under which fishermen have been paid by the EU and/or the UK national govt to scrap their boats (both, I think?).

 

But this is interesting about who gets the UK fishing quotas (controlled by UK, not EU): https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

 

"Just five families on the Sunday Times Rich List hold or control 29% of the UK’s fishing quota....more than two-thirds of the UK’s fishing quota is controlled by just 25 businesses – and more than half of those are linked to one of the biggest criminal overfishing scams ever to reach the British courts.Meanwhile, in England nearly 80% of fishing quota is held by foreign owners or domestic Rich List families, and more than half of Northern Ireland’s quota is hoarded onto a single trawler".

 

"The investigation found:

- The five largest quota-holders control more than a third of UK fishing quota

- Four of the top five belong to families on the Sunday Times Rich List

- The fifth is a Dutch multinational whose UK subsidiary – North Atlantic Fishing Company – controls around a quarter of England’s fishing quota

- Around half of England’s quota is ultimately owned by Dutch, Icelandic, or Spanish interests...."

 

A lot of the big, environmentally-unfriendly ships are fishing UK quotas, I think, though I'm no expert.

[Guest MattP]

Brexit passes Lords unamended. Nine days to go. It's been one hell of a fight to get to this.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51210602

[BoyJones]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

Brexit passes Lords unamended. Nine days to go. It's been one hell of a fight to get to this.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51210602

Massive thank you to Jeremy Corbyn for being a key player in ensuring we left the EU. 

[Ginger_Filbert]

Happy brexit week to all the brexiteers. 

Edited 27 January 2020 by Ginger_Filbert

[Jon the Hat]

21 minutes ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

Happy brexit week to all the brexiteers. 

Thanks.  It’s been a long time coming!  I’m on dry January which will come to an end on Friday night at 11ish

[Alf Bentley]

41 minutes ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

Happy brexit week to all the brexiteers. 

 

Are you not wishing happy Brexit week to all us Remainers, too?

We're part of "the people", too, you know. 

 

Anyway, happy Brexit future to us one and all. Can't pretend that I'm optimistic, but let's see what happens.

 

19 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Thanks.  It’s been a long time coming!  I’m on dry January which will come to an end on Friday night at 11ish

 

That's like the person running the marathon who collapses in the finishing straight. It's still a fail, Jon. 

Perhaps you could jump on a ferry to Calais and celebrate at midnight there? 

 

Anyway, bad news I heard is that Australia is applying to join the EU..... 

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Are you not wishing happy Brexit week to all us Remainers, too?

We're part of "the people", too, you know. 

 

Anyway, happy Brexit future to us one and all. Can't pretend that I'm optimistic, but let's see what happens.

 

 

That's like the person running the marathon who collapses in the finishing straight. It's still a fail, Jon. 

Perhaps you could jump on a ferry to Calais and celebrate at midnight there? 

 

Anyway, bad news I heard is that Australia is applying to join the EU..... 

Ha.  I didn’t start till the 4th so already failed.

[Guest MattP]

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

It just gets funnier.

[SpacedX]

On 20/01/2020 at 20:46, I am Rod Hull said:

Who the heck eats prawns ffs.... 

Ask Roy Keane.