2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[KrefelderFox666]

13 minutes ago, HereBeFoxes said:

I have made my own Premier League Result Simulator model to join in the fun; it uses recent form (in the results shown here last 6 matches) and uses that to estimate probabilities for home win, draw, away win for all the remaining matches.  It then runs 10000 iterations of the rest of the season, allocating the points per match according to those probabilities to assign the final points tally, breaking ties by GD assuming all upcoming games are won 1-0 or drawn 0-0.  It is of course, bollocks, but here are the results:

 

Man City come top in 99.7% of scenarios, and second in the other 0.3%.

Leicester come top 0.1% of the time, second 44.6% of the time, third 41.4% of the time, fourth 12.8%, fifth 1.3% and 6th 0.2%

Man Utd top 0.2%, second 48%, third, 36.6%, fourth 13.6%, fifth 1.5%, and 6th 0.2%

Chelsea second 7.6%, third 20.1%, fourth 52.7%, fifth 13.2%, lower (6th to 9th) 6.4%.

West Ham second 0.1%, third 0.7%, fourth 6.1%, fifth 26.6%, lower (6th to 13th) 66.5%

Everton second 0.2%, third 0.9%, fourth 7.4%, fifth 21.4%, lower (6th to 13th) 70.2%

Spurs second 0.1%, third 0.6%, fourth 6%,fifth 24%, lower (6th to 14th) 69.4%

 

So there you have it.  Definitive proof that we're finishing in the top 4 with 85% probability.  No need to finish the season I'd say.

 

I make it 98.5% probability based on your numbers. You missed coming 4th.

[HereBeFoxes]

Just now, KrefelderFox666 said:

I make it 98.5% probability based on your numbers. You missed coming 4th.

Well hopefully that will give you faith in the predictions!

 

(I meant top 3 - ie CL regardless of other European successes).

[murphy]

2 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

But does not penultimate mean 'the last but one'?

 

(Just checked - it does)

Yes, hence the end of the world joke.  One of my better ones I thought and I must confess that I'm a little wounded that it passed unnoticed. 

 

So anyway, you can have a 'very moment' being a pinpoint of time but it doesn't refer to penultimate.  As you say, you can't be very penultimate, so the op is right in phrasing and wrong in his meaning as I read it but of course I could be wrong and in general I defer to your pedantry expertise.  One for pedantry central.

[HighPeakFox]

1 minute ago, murphy said:

Yes, hence the end of the world joke.  One of my better ones I thought and I must confess that I'm a little wounded that it passed unnoticed. 

 

So anyway, you can have a 'very moment' being a pinpoint of time but it doesn't refer to penultimate.  As you say, you can't be very penultimate, so the op is right in phrasing and wrong in his meaning as I read it but of course I could be wrong and in general I defer to your pedantry expertise.  One for pedantry central.

Sorry, the joke wasn't lost on me, but I was on the accuracy mainline...

[FoxOnWheels]

3 hours ago, Frank Large's Black Book said:

Until last season I loved this type of thing, had my own spreadsheets and everything.

 

For me now it's "one game at a time"

 

doesn't stop me coming in here though

 

 

Exactly the same here! I want to see the numbers but at the same time don’t want to look past the next game 

[Leicester_Loyal]

4 hours ago, Gerard said:

 

Absolute rubbish.

 

Betting markets make Tottenham about a 16% chance and Liverpool over an 18% chance of top four. There is still a quarter of a season to go, I hope BR and the players aren't as complacent as you about finishing top four.

I'll quote this post when Spurs and Liverpool start to rest players in the EPL and neither catch us

[nwl fox]

1 hour ago, HereBeFoxes said:

I have made my own Premier League Result Simulator model to join in the fun; it uses recent form (in the results shown here last 6 matches) and uses that to estimate probabilities for home win, draw, away win for all the remaining matches.  It then runs 10000 iterations of the rest of the season, allocating the points per match according to those probabilities to assign the final points tally, breaking ties by GD assuming all upcoming games are won 1-0 or drawn 0-0.  It is of course, bollocks, but here are the results:

 

Man City come top in 99.7% of scenarios, and second in the other 0.3%.

Leicester come top 0.1% of the time, second 44.6% of the time, third 41.4% of the time, fourth 12.8%, fifth 1.3% and 6th 0.2%

Man Utd top 0.2%, second 48%, third, 36.6%, fourth 13.6%, fifth 1.5%, and 6th 0.2%

Chelsea second 7.6%, third 20.1%, fourth 52.7%, fifth 13.2%, lower (6th to 9th) 6.4%.

West Ham second 0.1%, third 0.7%, fourth 6.1%, fifth 26.6%, lower (6th to 13th) 66.5%

Everton second 0.2%, third 0.9%, fourth 7.4%, fifth 21.4%, lower (6th to 13th) 70.2%

Spurs second 0.1%, third 0.6%, fourth 6%,fifth 24%, lower (6th to 14th) 69.4%

 

So there you have it.  Definitive proof that we're finishing in the top 4 with 85% probability.  No need to finish the season I'd say.

 

That actually makes me feel slightly less anxious, thank you! One question though, is there a reason you've left Liverpool out? 

Edited 15 March 2021 by nwl fox

[Ricey]

12 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Based on latest update - it's looking pretty unlikely that 70 will be required for 4th. Could be in the 63-68 points range. 

Looking at the fixtures I doubt very much it will be lower that 66. I think more likely we'll need 68+. Liverpool for example face some real dross from here on in. I can see them getting to 68 now that they have some players back from injury.

[Deeg67]

Man City’s second 11 might win the league.  That’s the problem with getting too amped up over Pep rotating players.

[OhYesNdidi]

8 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

Man City’s second 11 might win the league.  That’s the problem with getting too amped up over Pep rotating players.

Man City’s under 23s knocked us out of the league cup a couple of seasons ago, just ridiculous!

[coolhandfox]

25 minutes ago, Ricey said:

Looking at the fixtures I doubt very much it will be lower that 66. I think more likely we'll need 68+. Liverpool for example face some real dross from here on in. I can see them getting to 68 now that they have some players back from injury.

Liverpool would need 22 points that 7 wins and a draw from 9 games 

 

With Man U, Leeds, Arsenal and Villa to play. 

[rachhere]

6 hours ago, HereBeFoxes said:

I have made my own Premier League Result Simulator model to join in the fun; it uses recent form (in the results shown here last 6 matches) and uses that to estimate probabilities for home win, draw, away win for all the remaining matches.  It then runs 10000 iterations of the rest of the season, allocating the points per match according to those probabilities to assign the final points tally, breaking ties by GD assuming all upcoming games are won 1-0 or drawn 0-0.  It is of course, bollocks, but here are the results:

 

Man City come top in 99.7% of scenarios, and second in the other 0.3%.

Leicester come top 0.1% of the time, second 44.6% of the time, third 41.4% of the time, fourth 12.8%, fifth 1.3% and 6th 0.2%

Man Utd top 0.2%, second 48%, third, 36.6%, fourth 13.6%, fifth 1.5%, and 6th 0.2%

Chelsea second 7.6%, third 20.1%, fourth 52.7%, fifth 13.2%, lower (6th to 9th) 6.4%.

West Ham second 0.1%, third 0.7%, fourth 6.1%, fifth 26.6%, lower (6th to 13th) 66.5%

Everton second 0.2%, third 0.9%, fourth 7.4%, fifth 21.4%, lower (6th to 13th) 70.2%

Spurs second 0.1%, third 0.6%, fourth 6%,fifth 24%, lower (6th to 14th) 69.4%

 

So there you have it.  Definitive proof that we're finishing in the top 4 with 85% probability.  No need to finish the season I'd say.

 

Gavin Williamson could have done with your help last summer!

[Gerard]

5 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I'll quote this post when Spurs and Liverpool start to rest players in the EPL and neither catch us

 

Liverpool are the most likely team to catch one of the top four according to the exchanges and the spreads. I can't believe anyone thinks Liverpool are out of it as by definition that also means you think we're as good as home and hosed for a top four spot.

Edited 15 March 2021 by Gerard

[Ricey]

26 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

Liverpool would need 22 points that 7 wins and a draw from 9 games 

 

With Man U, Leeds, Arsenal and Villa to play. 

I just think tonight’s win is huge for them. Back to winning ways and now 3 weeks rest, depending on internationals. If there was ever a team that could benefit from a 3 weeks break it’s Liverpool.

 

Maybe they won’t get to 68 points, but I think in a few matches time we’ll be talking about them as our biggest threat.

[OntarioFox]

70 points does it for me. So we need 14 points from our last 27 - tougher than it sounds with some of the fixtures on the horizon, but absolutely doable, especially if we capitalise on that run of favourable fixtures from mid-April to early May.

On current form, I do expect us to lose against Man City, but stranger things have happened.

Palace, West Brom, Southampton and Newcastle we should be aiming to win.

West Ham, a win would be great, but a draw is no bad result if it keeps our noses ahead of them.

 

And then another draw or win from somewhere else.

This being Leicester City, I wouldn't be in the slightest bit surprised if we lose against a West Brom or a Newcastle, but pick up a win against Man Utd. or Chelsea to balance that out.

I'd rather not have it come down to the last day again, but doing it against Tottenham with a crowd back in would be amazing.

[Leicester_Loyal]

30 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Liverpool are the most likely team to catch one of the top four according to the exchanges and the spreads. I can't believe anyone thinks Liverpool are out of it as by definition that also means you think we're as good as home and hosed for a top four spot.

Just can't see them winning what's likely to be 9 games (including tonights game) to catch us, as well as competing in Europe as well. We've basically got a 10 point head start, with 9 games to play.

 

Be nice if a result or two goes our way next weekend.

 

 

Edited 15 March 2021 by Leicester_Loyal

[Ricey]

8 hours ago, OntarioFox said:

70 points does it for me. So we need 14 points from our last 27 - tougher than it sounds with some of the fixtures on the horizon, but absolutely doable, especially if we capitalise on that run of favourable fixtures from mid-April to early May.

On current form, I do expect us to lose against Man City, but stranger things have happened.

Palace, West Brom, Southampton and Newcastle we should be aiming to win.

West Ham, a win would be great, but a draw is no bad result if it keeps our noses ahead of them.

 

And then another draw or win from somewhere else.

This being Leicester City, I wouldn't be in the slightest bit surprised if we lose against a West Brom or a Newcastle, but pick up a win against Man Utd. or Chelsea to balance that out.

I'd rather not have it come down to the last day again, but doing it against Tottenham with a crowd back in would be amazing.

I'd be shocked if we picked up maximum points in those four games. Even at our very best earlier in the season we were occasionally dropping points against these sort of sides.

 

A a win against West Ham will be huge as it gives us the chance to slip up in one of the four matches afterwards.

[kyleolly]

28 minutes ago, Ricey said:

I'd be shocked if we picked up maximum points in those four games. Even at our very best earlier in the season we were occasionally dropping points against these sort of sides.

 

A a win against West Ham will be huge as it gives us the chance to slip up in one of the four matches afterwards.

Have we not already beat all four of these this season?

[Steven]

15 hours ago, HereBeFoxes said:

I have made my own Premier League Result Simulator model to join in the fun; it uses recent form (in the results shown here last 6 matches) and uses that to estimate probabilities for home win, draw, away win for all the remaining matches.  It then runs 10000 iterations of the rest of the season, allocating the points per match according to those probabilities to assign the final points tally, breaking ties by GD assuming all upcoming games are won 1-0 or drawn 0-0.  It is of course, bollocks, but here are the results:

 

Man City come top in 99.7% of scenarios, and second in the other 0.3%.

Leicester come top 0.1% of the time, second 44.6% of the time, third 41.4% of the time, fourth 12.8%, fifth 1.3% and 6th 0.2%

Man Utd top 0.2%, second 48%, third, 36.6%, fourth 13.6%, fifth 1.5%, and 6th 0.2%

Chelsea second 7.6%, third 20.1%, fourth 52.7%, fifth 13.2%, lower (6th to 9th) 6.4%.

West Ham second 0.1%, third 0.7%, fourth 6.1%, fifth 26.6%, lower (6th to 13th) 66.5%

Everton second 0.2%, third 0.9%, fourth 7.4%, fifth 21.4%, lower (6th to 13th) 70.2%

Spurs second 0.1%, third 0.6%, fourth 6%,fifth 24%, lower (6th to 14th) 69.4%

 

So there you have it.  Definitive proof that we're finishing in the top 4 with 85% probability.  No need to finish the season I'd say.

 

Monte Carlo method?

[Ricey]

37 minutes ago, kyleolly said:

Have we not already beat all four of these this season?

We drew against Palace.

 

But my point is that all season with dropped some points in 'winnable' matches every few weeks, so no reason to think it won't happen again. Luckily we've always recovered well. I'd be happy with 9 points out of the 4.

[Jobyfox]

The Palace game was a bit of a one off as it was before Iheanacho channeled his inner Pele 

[Ric Flair]

9 hours ago, Ricey said:

I just think tonight’s win is huge for them. Back to winning ways and now 3 weeks rest, depending on internationals. If there was ever a team that could benefit from a 3 weeks break it’s Liverpool.

 

Maybe they won’t get to 68 points, but I think in a few matches time we’ll be talking about them as our biggest threat.

What's been odd about Liverpool is they haven't had any injuries to their front 3 other than Jota who was the spare part anyway and then he's come back just as Firminho is out for a bit. Neither have their 2 powerhouses at full back who get obscene amounts of assists.

 

They completely imploded and although defensively they still have issues, you could easily see them winning their remaining 9 games. I don't think they will but they could, they have won that many games without breaking sweat a few seasons on the bounce.

[davieG]

The Independent's view.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/premier-league-top-four-fixtures-man-utd-liverpool-chelsea-leicester-b1817494.html

[Ricey]

Just now, Ric Flair said:

What's been odd about Liverpool is they haven't had any injuries to their front 3 other than Jota who was the spare part anyway and then he's come back just as Firminho is out for a bit. Neither have their 2 powerhouses at full back who get obscene amounts of assists.

 

They completely imploded and although defensively they still have issues, you could easily see them winning their remaining 9 games. I don't think they will but they could, they have won that many games without breaking sweat a few seasons on the bounce.

We know their potential, we know they are easily capable of picking up 22+ out of the final matches. They also have a final four matches of Southampton, West Brom, Burnley and Palace. All four will likely not have anything to play for at that stage.

[Ric Flair]

26 minutes ago, Ricey said:

We know their potential, we know they are easily capable of picking up 22+ out of the final matches. They also have a final four matches of Southampton, West Brom, Burnley and Palace. All four will likely not have anything to play for at that stage.

Yeah, it's these next 4 league games of theirs, if they win all of them then we will have to be aiming for 6 wins out of our last 9