Analysing why City are not claiming victory in the matches where they dominate possession and control the ball - ByJordan Blackwell

[davieG]

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/leicester-city-not-winning-play-6983084

ByJordan Blackwell
06:00, 22 APR 2022
 

In the last two games, from which Leicester City have taken just one point, Brendan Rodgers has been impressed with his side's performances.

Injury-time goals at Newcastle and Everton mean Rodgers has now admitted defeat in a late push for the European spots, but they have not lessened his feelings towards the displays. The football produced by his side for large parts of those games was exactly what he wanted.

In an ideal world, Rodgers would like City to dominate possession – as control of the ball means control of the game – and to move it around with purpose. The problem is that when City have done both of those things this season, more often than not, they haven’t won.

 

The game against Everton is a fine example. City had 63 per cent of the ball, which is the sixth highest share of possession they have had in a Premier League match this term. That they didn’t win fits the pattern. From the seven games in which City have had the most possession this season*, they have drawn two and lost five. No wins.

 

At Goodison Park, City completed 539 passes, their second-highest tally in a Premier League game this season. Yet of the 11 fixtures in which they have completed the most passes**, they have only won one, which was the opening-day victory over Wolves.

In some of the matches on the list, City were unfortunate. There was the defeat at Wolves in which City played some of their best, most progressive football of the season but lost to two strikes from outside the area, for example. And there was the home loss to Arsenal in which Aaron Ramsdale pulled off a series of brilliant saves.

But it feels like too big a pattern for it simply to be written off as luck. So where is it going wrong?

In an attacking sense, it may be that City are dominating the ball and playing more passes because the opposition are sitting deep and allowing them to. But in that case, City are not making the most of what they are being given.

It can be difficult to break down deep-set defences, but even still, Rodgers’ side have been unsuccessful at taking advantage of their control of the ball. It might be predicted that their cumulative chances in these games would add up to a higher expected goals total, but it’s not the case. From the 11 games where City completed the most passes, their average expected goals figure was 1.26. From the other 20 games this Premier League season, it’s 1.37.

If you control possession it should make a difference defensively, and indeed, in the 11 games in which City completed more passes, they did give up fewer chances on average. The list includes the games against Wolves and West Ham in February, which were statistically City’s best defensive performances, but a bit of bad fortune meant they did not come away with victory in either.

In total, for the 11 matches, the expected goals conceded figure was 1.48, while in the other 20 games, it was 1.79. It’s a difference, but City are still giving up greater quality chances than they are creating themselves in the fixtures where they are dominating the ball.

That’s because of their two big flaws. In a lot of those 11 games, City conceded through set-pieces. It’s a quick and easy way to get the ball into dangerous areas; you do not need to dominate possession to win free-kicks and corners. When teams have loaded the areas, City have come up short in defending their goal.

The other is how City defend in transition. When you control play, the opposition will likely try counter attacks, moving the ball forward swiftly before City can get back into position and reorganise themselves. Too often, City not able to do get into shape effectively, and the opposition are taking advantage. Newcastle’s late winner last weekend was a great example.

This is clearly not what City and Rodgers want. Their preferred approach needs to yield results. It probably is the most effective play style – and City have certainly had joy with it in previous seasons when they’ve got it right – but this campaign has shown the gameplan needs a lot of fine-tuning so it can consistently earn points.

*Seven games where City had their highest share of possession: Newcastle 2-1 City, City 2-2 Burnley, Wolves 2-1 City, City 0-2 Arsenal, Brighton 2-1 City, Everton 1-1 City, Aston Villa 2-1 City.

** Eleven games where City completed their highest tally of passes: City 0-2 Arsenal, Everton 1-1 City, City 2-2 Burnley, City 1-0 Wolves, Wolves 2-1 City, Arsenal 2-0 City, Newcastle 2-1 City, Brighton 2-1 City, City 2-3 Tottenham, City 2-2 West Ham, Aston Villa 2-1 City.

[davieG]

Possession and control does not guarantee you will win especially if you keep giving the ball away in unforced situations allowing the opposition to counter. This often results in panic defending leading to either a freekick or a corner = a goal against.

[MarriedaLeicesterGirl]

2 hours ago, davieG said:

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/leicester-city-not-winning-play-6983084

ByJordan Blackwell
06:00, 22 APR 2022
 

In the last two games, from which Leicester City have taken just one point, Brendan Rodgers has been impressed with his side's performances.

Injury-time goals at Newcastle and Everton mean Rodgers has now admitted defeat in a late push for the European spots, but they have not lessened his feelings towards the displays. The football produced by his side for large parts of those games was exactly what he wanted.

In an ideal world, Rodgers would like City to dominate possession – as control of the ball means control of the game – and to move it around with purpose. The problem is that when City have done both of those things this season, more often than not, they haven’t won.

 

The game against Everton is a fine example. City had 63 per cent of the ball, which is the sixth highest share of possession they have had in a Premier League match this term. That they didn’t win fits the pattern. From the seven games in which City have had the most possession this season*, they have drawn two and lost five. No wins.

 

At Goodison Park, City completed 539 passes, their second-highest tally in a Premier League game this season. Yet of the 11 fixtures in which they have completed the most passes**, they have only won one, which was the opening-day victory over Wolves.

In some of the matches on the list, City were unfortunate. There was the defeat at Wolves in which City played some of their best, most progressive football of the season but lost to two strikes from outside the area, for example. And there was the home loss to Arsenal in which Aaron Ramsdale pulled off a series of brilliant saves.

But it feels like too big a pattern for it simply to be written off as luck. So where is it going wrong?

In an attacking sense, it may be that City are dominating the ball and playing more passes because the opposition are sitting deep and allowing them to. But in that case, City are not making the most of what they are being given.

It can be difficult to break down deep-set defences, but even still, Rodgers’ side have been unsuccessful at taking advantage of their control of the ball. It might be predicted that their cumulative chances in these games would add up to a higher expected goals total, but it’s not the case. From the 11 games where City completed the most passes, their average expected goals figure was 1.26. From the other 20 games this Premier League season, it’s 1.37.

If you control possession it should make a difference defensively, and indeed, in the 11 games in which City completed more passes, they did give up fewer chances on average. The list includes the games against Wolves and West Ham in February, which were statistically City’s best defensive performances, but a bit of bad fortune meant they did not come away with victory in either.

In total, for the 11 matches, the expected goals conceded figure was 1.48, while in the other 20 games, it was 1.79. It’s a difference, but City are still giving up greater quality chances than they are creating themselves in the fixtures where they are dominating the ball.

That’s because of their two big flaws. In a lot of those 11 games, City conceded through set-pieces. It’s a quick and easy way to get the ball into dangerous areas; you do not need to dominate possession to win free-kicks and corners. When teams have loaded the areas, City have come up short in defending their goal.

The other is how City defend in transition. When you control play, the opposition will likely try counter attacks, moving the ball forward swiftly before City can get back into position and reorganise themselves. Too often, City not able to do get into shape effectively, and the opposition are taking advantage. Newcastle’s late winner last weekend was a great example.

This is clearly not what City and Rodgers want. Their preferred approach needs to yield results. It probably is the most effective play style – and City have certainly had joy with it in previous seasons when they’ve got it right – but this campaign has shown the gameplan needs a lot of fine-tuning so it can consistently earn points.

*Seven games where City had their highest share of possession: Newcastle 2-1 City, City 2-2 Burnley, Wolves 2-1 City, City 0-2 Arsenal, Brighton 2-1 City, Everton 1-1 City, Aston Villa 2-1 City.

** Eleven games where City completed their highest tally of passes: City 0-2 Arsenal, Everton 1-1 City, City 2-2 Burnley, City 1-0 Wolves, Wolves 2-1 City, Arsenal 2-0 City, Newcastle 2-1 City, Brighton 2-1 City, City 2-3 Tottenham, City 2-2 West Ham, Aston Villa 2-1 City.

The problem is we are not scoring goals (I know, that seems obvious). We have had four league games where we scored more than 2 goals this season, one of which we lost. We had twice as many last season (in fact, we scored more than 2 goals in our first three games of that season), and the same number the season before. We have had 0 games this season where we were comfortably ahead at the 60 minute mark.

Edited 22 April 2022 by MarriedaLeicesterGirl
typo

[Saxondale]

To be fair, we are the experts at understanding that possession does not equal victory, given we won the league by basically letting opposition teams pass the ball round to their hearts’ content.

[An Sionnach]

22 minutes ago, davieG said:

Possession and control does not guarantee you will win especially if you keep giving the ball away in unforced situations allowing the opposition to counter. This often results in panic defending leading to either a freekick or a corner = a goal against.

Spurs beat Man.City twice with 30% possession.. There is no hard  and fast rule.

[winteriscoming]

Sounds very spursy to me. We won the league with less than 30% possession. Having soyuncu and amartey pass to one another 200 times will always increase possession stats. 

[MarriedaLeicesterGirl]

31 minutes ago, davieG said:

Possession and control does not guarantee you will win especially if you keep giving the ball away in unforced situations allowing the opposition to counter. This often results in panic defending leading to either a freekick or a corner = a goal against.

We seem to have a problem keeping the ball and controlling the game, especially when trying to defend a narrow lead. There is also the psychological element: If you keep giving up a goal in injury time, you start worrying about giving up a goal in injury time, and then you fall into the "here we go again trap" which means you set yourself up to give up a goal in injury time.

[smudgerfox]

A very good piece by Jordan - providing substance to what we already suspected 

[Stadt]

We're just not very good at creating chances. We don't create many 1 on 1s, cut backs or tap ins - the sort of chances that are converted more often.

 

When playing the 433 we need to give the striker more support and have our midfielders & wingers go beyond the striker, most of our final third play is really predictable as it goes up to the striker who can only play it back.

Edited 22 April 2022 by Stadt

[lcfc_forever]

I think the piece doesn't take into account some of the rotten luck we've had in a few of those games where we had a higher share of possession.

 

We actually deserved to win most of those games where we've had most possession, for example we hammered Burnley but they scored through an own goal and a superb strike, the linesman and VAR combined to rob us vs Brighton. We were the better team overall vs Wolves, Arsenal and Newcastle as well. 

 

Less an issue with chance creation as we've scored in all those games but the leakiness of our defence - we blew that game vs Arsenal in the first 15 mins, even though we dominated the rest of the match. 

[majaco]

Blackwell has hit a few nails.on the head.   Too many nails.

[PAPA LAZAROU]

56 minutes ago, MarriedaLeicesterGirl said:

We seem to have a problem keeping the ball and controlling the game, especially when trying to defend a narrow lead. There is also the psychological element: If you keep giving up a goal in injury time, you start worrying about giving up a goal in injury time, and then you fall into the "here we go again trap" which means you set yourself up to give up a goal in injury time.

And of course the opposition know it's our weak spot. Their managers must tell them to hit us with all they have got during the last 5 minutes. We have become so predictable it's embarrassing.

[The Quick Brown Fox]

50 minutes ago, Stadt said:

We're just not very good at creating chances. We don't create many 1 on 1s, cut backs or tap ins - the sort of chances that are converted more often.

 

When playing the 433 we need to give the striker more support and have our midfielders & wingers go beyond the striker, most of our final third play is really predictable as it goes up to the striker who can only play it back.

I think us not making those chances comes down to the way in which BR wants us to play, build the play slowly to push teams back. When you let the other team drop and reset their positions and mark their men then you inevitably restrict the chances you have of getting into a 1 on 1. I really dislike the possession football we see too often, but I wouldn't mind it so much if we mixed it up a bit. 

I can't be the only one that screams at the players when they pass sideways or cut back in when their is an obvious ball on which would put us into a great attacking position. 

[fox_up_north]

I desperately want to see a change in these last few league games. Mid table is assured but now is the time to go 2 up top with a diamond or 4231. Anything to change it up. 

[Stadt]

2 minutes ago, browniefox said:

I think us not making those chances comes down to the way in which BR wants us to play, build the play slowly to push teams back. When you let the other team drop and reset their positions and mark their men then you inevitably restrict the chances you have of getting into a 1 on 1. I really dislike the possession football we see too often, but I wouldn't mind it so much if we mixed it up a bit. 

I can't be the only one that screams at the players when they pass sideways or cut back in when their is an obvious ball on which would put us into a great attacking position. 

We look better when the game is stretched, we're not good defensively even when we have 2/3rds of the ball so, more open games actually suit us. We don't have enough guile/not well coached enough to camp in the opposition's half, which is we play so safely. The movement just isn't there to unlock defences.

 

If we engaged a bit deeper out of possession and looked to try and turn the ball over in the middle third more often it'd potentially give us more space to attack into

[KrefelderFox666]

The positive thing is that we are not far away from being very successful. If we can cut out conceeding stupid goals off set pieces or we can be more clinical, then we will reap a lot more points. However, either or both of those need sorting and it has been going on for too long.

[martyn]

On the occasions we do beat an initial press we aren't very good at immediately switching up the tempo to find our attacking threats in space.

 

Happened countless times in the Everton game, especially first half. We'd work the ball effortlessly past initial pressure, but rather than looking to exploit the gaps, we'd just keep moving the ball around midfield at a low tempo allowing the opposition to reset their shape.

 

It happens when we win the ball back in decent areas as well, we always seem to want to "reset" the play by working the ball back to our centre halves rather than looking to spring quick counters or getting the ball quickly out wide.

 

I'm not saying we should look to be a counter attacking side, but we aren't very good currently at exploiting those situations where we have worked the opposition out of their defensive shape.

Edited 22 April 2022 by martyn

[sacreblueits442]

1 hour ago, An Sionnach said:

Spurs beat Man.City twice with 30% possession.. There is no hard  and fast rule.

...Man. City are ready made for the low block!!!

  Sit deep against them and play on the counter.  Not sure why all teams seems to want to engage with them. 

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, Stadt said:

We're just not very good at creating chances. We don't create many 1 on 1s, cut backs or tap ins - the sort of chances that are converted more often.

 

When playing the 433 we need to give the striker more support and have our midfielders & wingers go beyond the striker, most of our final third play is really predictable as it goes up to the striker who can only play it back.

Since Forest, we’ve been so shit scared of being counter attacked - that no one goes beyond their opposition player. Very few overlaps. 
 

At PSV, we finally started to do it. Work the inner channels and overlaps. They couldn’t keep it together. 

[sacreblueits442]

7 minutes ago, martyn said:

On the occasions we do beat an initial press we aren't very good at immediately switching up the tempo to find our attacking threats in space.

 

Happened countless times in the Everton game, especially first half. We'd work the ball effortlessly past initial pressure, but rather than looking to exploit the gaps, we'd just keep moving the ball around midfield at a low tempo allowing the opposition to reset their shape.

 

It happens when we win the ball back in decent areas as well, we always seem to want to "reset" the play by working the ball back to our centre halves rather than looking to spring quick counters or getting the ball quickly out wide.

 

I'm not saying we should look to be a counter attacking side, but we aren't very good currently at exploiting those situations where we have worked the opposition out of their defensive shape.

..we also have the habit of passing for the sake of passing!!!

We can look robotic as we attempt to play in the manner the manager has called for, but the individuals need to understand they can improvise in those situations. 

[mod hero]

I think we would go back to 4231 Iheanacho and in particular Daka are being hung out to dry up top, this formation will allow Maddison to play in his preferred position and play closer to the strikers.

 

great article that by Jordan Blackwell btw

[Paninistickers]

25 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

The positive thing is that we are not far away from being very successful. If we can cut out conceeding stupid goals off set pieces or we can be more clinical, then we will reap a lot more points. However, either or both of those need sorting and it has been going on for too long.

I agree. 

 

Our style is sustainable. It's the same boa constrictor slow death style we've employed with some success in the last 3 seasons.

 

we suffocated man utd in the FA Cup quarters. Palace away in the Vardy Eagle celebration. Bumming Villa 4-1 away (who also scored a grotesquely againt-the-run-of-play just before ht, so it even happened then) when it could easily have been 8 or 9. Leeds away 4-1 (who also scored against run of play) .....countless other examples tobshow what happened at Everton and Newcstle was more right than wrong. 

 

We need a bit of team consistency (it's coming), a bit of form (it's nearly there) a bit of luck (horribly absent all season - it happens some years) and belief.

 

 

[Guest Chocolate Teapot]

21 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I agree. 

 

Our style is sustainable. It's the same boa constrictor slow death style we've employed with some success in the last 3 seasons.

 

we suffocated man utd in the FA Cup quarters. Palace away in the Vardy Eagle celebration. Bumming Villa 4-1 away (who also scored a grotesquely againt-the-run-of-play just before ht, so it even happened then) when it could easily have been 8 or 9. Leeds away 4-1 (who also scored against run of play) .....countless other examples tobshow what happened at Everton and Newcstle was more right than wrong. 

 

We need a bit of team consistency (it's coming), a bit of form (it's nearly there) a bit of luck (horribly absent all season - it happens some years) and belief.

 

 

In all those games we've had either Vardy or an in form iheanacho. The elephant in the room is Vardy - we just don't win many games without him.

Edited 22 April 2022 by Chocolate Teapot

[sacreblueits442]

19 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

We need a bit of team consistency (it's coming), a bit of form (it's nearly there) a bit of luck (horribly absent all season - it happens some years) and belief.

..moreover we need to be a disciplined team!!!

  All the goods things that we tend to do, go out the window when we are on top. We hold on to the ball a little bit longer, we make unnecessary passes, just for the sake of passing, as we lack the ability to keep doing the same process that got us into the position in the first place.

  It is the reason why we are not putting 5 or 6 goals past teams and regularly putting 3 goals away a game does not happen. Instead of being ruthless in how we approach games, we then seem to want to have fun out there, with tricks and flicks and taking shots from almost impossible angles.

 Going back to the Southampton game that night, if you watched how Rodgers was orchestrating the play all game, even in the pouring rain, while the players kept up the pressure and held themselves together to achieve a result equalling scoreline.

 That is the sort of discipline that we need to instill, but we always want to overplay when we are in the ascendancy. 

[Hammo]

A well researched piece which confirms in facts and figures what we have long known to be true - dominating possession and ‘controlling the game’ does not win football matches.

 

In fact, the Rodgers’ brand of circulating the ball repeatedly ad nauseam with little risk of penetration (even when there are spaces to exploit) leads to some pretty drab and frustrating football that - more importantly - is very easy for teams to defend, which in consequence yields few chances, shots on target and therefore goals.

 

We need to mix things up, vary our attacking options and lose the ‘predictable’ tag otherwise, like the often pedestrian style of the team, I fear we are going nowhere fast.