Points Required for Survival

[nnfox]

I think 46 or 47 will be enough.  I can't see us getting 50, that would require a monumental upturn in form for us and Blackburn.

[OwnGoal]

The injured players returning will be a boost. JJ is essential for survival. Ramsay coming back and staying fit would be a big help. Along with the loanee from Man City them three at least look like footballers. 

[Guy]

When we were relegated to League One last time in 2008 we finished on 52 points with something ridiculous like a -3 goal difference! 

Edited 13 February by Guy

[purpleronnie]

What a game the final game could be.  Weird that its Blackburn again given they stayed up by beating us a couple of seasons a go.

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

I've resigned myself to getting relegated at Blackburn on the final day, if not earlier because we have players that just don't have the mental or physical fight within them to pull themselves out of the shit. Too many passengers, too many mercenaries and has-beens, and too many players on wages they shouldn't be on. 

 

It doesn't bode for a successful outcome. Survival on the final day of the championship isn't, and should not be, classed as a success even. 

If we do stay up, I think the most likely scenario is staying up by 1 point or GD, due to Blackburn/Portsmouth/West Brom being worse than us. 

Edited 13 February by Les-TA-Jon

[Fox92]

1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Results in return fixtures of remaining games:

 

18 points - exactly what we need to finish on 50...

 

But yeah agree with your concerns. Especially since 10 of those 18 points we gained in the reverse fixtures, appear very hard to replicate now. 

If only football was played like that. We're not going to win at Ipswich, I highly doubt we'll even beat Norwich at home or get at draw at Middlesbrough.

 

It's criminal we lost to Charlton, Oxford, Sheffield United and Blackburn all at home.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Just now, Fox92 said:

If only football was played like that. We're not going to win at Ipswich, I highly doubt we'll even beat Norwich at home or get at draw at Middlesbrough.

 

It's criminal we lost to Charlton, Oxford, Sheffield United and Blackburn all at home.

Yeah I literally addressed this

 

Quote

But yeah agree with your concerns. Especially since 10 of those 18 points we gained in the reverse fixtures, appear very hard to replicate now

 

[Fox92]

35 minutes ago, Guy said:

When we were relegated to League One last time in 2008 we finished on 52 points with something ridiculous like a -3 goal difference! 

We had something stupid like the third best defensive record in the league, just couldn't score.

 

This season we can't stop conceding.

[Fox92]

Just now, Les-TA-Jon said:

Yeah I literally addressed this

 

 

I know.

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 minute ago, Fox92 said:

It's criminal we lost to Charlton, Oxford, Sheffield United and Blackburn all at home.

And yeah I said earlier in the season that 1 point out of 12 vs Portsmouth, Blackburn, Oxford and Charlton at home could be the results that relegate us...

[Sol thewall Bamba]

42 minutes ago, Guy said:

When we were relegated to League One last time in 2008 we finished on 52 points with something ridiculous like a -3 goal difference! 

Most points anyone had ever been relegated on wasn't it?

Edited 13 February by Sol thewall Bamba

[It'sblueupnorth]

37 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

We had something stupid like the third best defensive record in the league, just couldn't score.

 

This season we can't stop conceding.

2nd best defence with the worst attack iirc. The team that went down in 08 would comfortably beat the team we’ve got now 

[LCFCJohn]

1 hour ago, Qwerty said:

So far we’ve averaged 1.1875 points per game.  If that continues, we’ll get 16 points in the remaining 14 games, giving us a total of 48 points. 
Blackburn have averaged 1.03 points per game , so they would end up with 47 points. 
Oxford 40 points. 

On a different subject, I find it surprising that Portsmouth aren’t being penalised for having such a crap pitch that they’re 3 matches behind.  If they’d taken steps to fix it, it would have cost a fortune, and they’d have breached PSR, so they’d have been punished for that anyway! 

Infrastructure doesn’t count towards PSR does it, and a new pitch/fixing the pitch whilst a financial outlay for the owners, would surely be under infrastructure?

[Guy]

1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Most points anyone had ever been relegated on wasn't it?

We were only trumped in that respect by Peterborough in 2013 who amassed 54 Championship points and like us, finished three from bottom....!

Edited 13 February by Guy

[squidsworth]

At the moment, you've got to assume 50 would be enough, but could easily change.  It's that last spot that worries me most.  Every time we fail to win sees another team disappearing far into the distance. 

So we will be left in a small group of 3 or 4 where it's 50/50 if you go down or not, probably based on who does best in the last 5 or so games.

Whilst most other teams will expect to be there and fight like hell, we'll be moping about feeling sorry for ourselves, offer no fight whatsoever, and go down with a whimper. 

I reckon 45pts for us, tops. The returning players are likely to be too little, too late. We're already broken, by then, we'll be properly busted.

[Lambert09]

Anything can happen in the run in. Teams that actually fight for it can pull off stranger results. If we aren’t clear 4 games out we will drop. Because we are so mentally fragile. Don’t back any of what we have to step up 

[Ian Nacho]

We've got a torrid run over the next 5 but if we lose them all we could be in a position where we'd need to win about 6 of our last 10. 

[Bourbon Fox]

3 hours ago, Qwerty said:

So far we’ve averaged 1.1875 points per game.  If that continues, we’ll get 16 points in the remaining 14 games, giving us a total of 48 points. 
Blackburn have averaged 1.03 points per game , so they would end up with 47 points. 
Oxford 40 points. 

On a different subject, I find it surprising that Portsmouth aren’t being penalised for having such a crap pitch that they’re 3 matches behind.  If they’d taken steps to fix it, it would have cost a fortune, and they’d have breached PSR, so they’d have been punished for that anyway! 

To reach 50 points we'd need to increase our ppg to 1.3.

 

We've got 1 point from the last 7 games. 

Edited 13 February by Bourbon Fox

[CosbehFox]

It will be 47 to stay up. 5 wins gets us there. Win the home games but these ****ers aren’t good for that 

[Spanner73]

5 hours ago, honeybradger said:

knowing our luck Blackburn are about to go on a strong run of results and we will be left adrift at the end of the next 5 games

Hopefully 

[coolhandfox]

Criminal that we have allowed King to manage 3 games, result in 0 pts.

 

Its like 22/23 all over again.

 

I've accepted we are going down.

[Guy]

3 hours ago, Fox92 said:

We had something stupid like the third best defensive record in the league, just couldn't score.

 

This season we can't stop conceding.

It was also similar in a way to parts of this season in so far as we could beat the better teams that season (ie 1-4 at West Brom, who went up) but struggle against those in and around us at the time ie Colchester! 

[RonnieTodger]

I wouldn’t even back us to win at Hillsborough right now. To stand any chance, we need some kind of catalyst. A new manager, JJ coming back early or Thomas being displaced. 
 

[J.Lisemore]

The reality is that we will be relying on other teams to keep losing. I can’t see this team winning again this season, unless our board wake up and appoint a half decent manager to shore up the defence. 

[Guest Jonboy1999]

Blackburn could be 6 points ahead of us next time we play against Stoke 😬