Case for the Defence

[Tielemans63]

*spolier alert*....there isn't one.

 

I'm not the best at maths, but I've been saying for ages that our defence will be the reason I think we'll go down, and I've also bemoaned the fact that we seem to concede two goals every week...and have done for a while. So I thought I'd actually look into it and see if what I'm saying actually adds up.  

 

I've found the following:

 

In 22/23, the bottom three all went down with the following 'Goals conceded per game' ratios:

 

Reading- conceded 68 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.48

 

Blackpool - conceded 72  goals - goals conceded per game = 1.57

 

Wigan - conceded 65 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.41

 

The average for the bottom 3 that season was 1.49 goals conceded per game

 

In 23/24, the bottom three conceded the following:

 

Birmingham conceded 65 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.41

 

Huddersfield conceded 77  goals - goals conceded per game = 1.67

 

Rotherham - conceded 89 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.93

 

The average for the bottom 3 that season was 1.67 goals conceded per game.

 

In 24/25, the bottom three conceded the following:

 

Luton conceded 69 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.50

 

Plymouth conceded 88 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.91

 

Cardiff - conceded 73 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.59

 

The average for the bottom 3 that season was also 1.67 goals conceded per game (same as previous season).

 

 

Here's the fun bit; we are currently conceding an average of 1.61 goals per game. That's a worse record than 6 of those 9 relegated sides in the last 3 years. That actually jumps up to 1.83 goals per game since the start of November. Only Plymouth and Rotherham can 'beat' that stat in the past 3 years and is way above the average for each season.

 

Lastly 1.72 - that's the number of goals we have conceded on average per game since the start of 2022, excluding the title winning season under Enzo. So for 3 seasons, this has been allowed to happen, with largely the same personnel in place.

 

If (when) we get relegated, a complete overhaul of the defence has to be priority #1. For us to have been so brittle for 4 years is unforgivable. The stats are right there.

 

 

[HarryDee8]

The defence is currently our weakest part. I think we have enough up ahead from the last few games.

 

Those 2 goals we gave away were soft. Lack of communication between the centre backs there and no one taking charge.  

 

Stop leaking goals and we got a chance!  Think Garry Rowett knows what needs to be sorted out

[murphy]

I think that we have lacked organisation and leadership in defence plus we have no protection from midfield and there is a chronic lack of pace. 

 

Also, we have been tactically naive trying to see out a full half of football from a winning position by retreating into our own half, inviting attack.  Or paying such a high line that we are exposed by a hoof over the top. 

 

Heads drop when we concede and we have no full hacks. Other teams have worked out that they should target our left side and that we can't deal with crosses. 

 

Also, we ha e a terrible record for bring caught cold out of the blocks.  The number of times we concede early is ridiculous. 

 

Apart from that, the defence is fine. 

[The Doctor]

lack of organisation and the most mentally weak team in the world, always expecting to concede, is the problem. Do we still have any sort of sports psychologist on staff?

[Trav Le Bleu]

Our GD whilst not great, reflects the fact that we've been docked 6 pts. There's 4 teams above us with worse GD. Coincidentally, had we not had the penalty 6 pts, we'd be 4 places higher. 

 

Not great, but better than present. Current form needs to at least start turning. Our earlier season form, while not brilliant, would've seen us mid-table - a combination of the deduction and truly awful form have done us.

 

We've got the 8th highest GF. Scoring isn't a problem. Myself, I'd welcome a 0-0, just so we can start believing that we can defend.

[Richmondfox]

57 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

lack of organisation and the most mentally weak team in the world, always expecting to concede, is the problem. Do we still have any sort of sports psychologist on staff?

They don't need a sports psychologist, they need good old fashioned cyber bullying or even better, a Huth, Morgan and Waskileski talking to.

 

It's always someone else's problem to deal with.  So many times you see the midfield drift away instead of busting a gut to catch up the metre gap.  The players back off and allow the crosses to be made, they never attempt to press or at the least put them off.  Okoli and Nelson are terrible at defending a cross.  I think Nelson would have a better career as a  midfielder.  He would do a better job than Skipp in passing the ball to the players during an attack.

[sdb]

Both keepers, all full backs and most CBs are properly poor players. None of them are good. Combine that with no protection from our central midfielders, and downright lazy wingers, there's no light at the end of the tunnel. There are no leaders and we are physically weaker than probably every side in the league. We are ****ed. 

[foxfanazer]

1 hour ago, Tielemans63 said:

*spolier alert*....there isn't one.

 

I'm not the best at maths, but I've been saying for ages that our defence will be the reason I think we'll go down, and I've also bemoaned the fact that we seem to concede two goals every week...and have done for a while. So I thought I'd actually look into it and see if what I'm saying actually adds up.  

 

I've found the following:

 

In 22/23, the bottom three all went down with the following 'Goals conceded per game' ratios:

 

Reading- conceded 68 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.48

 

Blackpool - conceded 72  goals - goals conceded per game = 1.57

 

Wigan - conceded 65 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.41

 

The average for the bottom 3 that season was 1.49 goals conceded per game

 

In 23/24, the bottom three conceded the following:

 

Birmingham conceded 65 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.41

 

Huddersfield conceded 77  goals - goals conceded per game = 1.67

 

Rotherham - conceded 89 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.93

 

The average for the bottom 3 that season was 1.67 goals conceded per game.

 

In 24/25, the bottom three conceded the following:

 

Luton conceded 69 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.50

 

Plymouth conceded 88 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.91

 

Cardiff - conceded 73 goals - goals conceded per game = 1.59

 

The average for the bottom 3 that season was also 1.67 goals conceded per game (same as previous season).

 

 

Here's the fun bit; we are currently conceding an average of 1.61 goals per game. That's a worse record than 6 of those 9 relegated sides in the last 3 years. That actually jumps up to 1.83 goals per game since the start of November. Only Plymouth and Rotherham can 'beat' that stat in the past 3 years and is way above the average for each season.

 

Lastly 1.72 - that's the number of goals we have conceded on average per game since the start of 2022, excluding the title winning season under Enzo. So for 3 seasons, this has been allowed to happen, with largely the same personnel in place.

 

If (when) we get relegated, a complete overhaul of the defence has to be priority #1. For us to have been so brittle for 4 years is unforgivable. The stats are right there.

 

 

That's a very wordy way of saying we're just shite in absolutely every department 

[Vacamion]

 

You can blame the defenders, with justification, but if the keepers won't come for stuff that is looping from high into the 6 yard box, or they palm saves into the feet of attackers, or get caught fannying about trying to play it out, you're going to have a bad time.

 

 

[Haywood_6]

I can’t be the only one seeing this but our insistence on playing such a high line from set pieces is killing us as well. I don't get it. We're gambling on catching them offside but I really don't think it's worth the risk

 

If I'm the opposition then im seeing that as an open invitation. Just put a half-decent delivery into the area behind the Leicester defence and because their all is  back pedalling, you'll either cause chaos or score a tap in...

 

I'm no expert but surely a deeper line would be better? So the centre backs to actually face the play and attack the ball moving forward.

 

I just think defensively we need to simplify the game and we seem to over complicate it 

[jayfox26]

We need Vestergaard back. Okoli and Nelson cannot play together. I assume Souttar isnt likely to be seen this season. 

[foxfanazer]

Just now, jayfox26 said:

We need Vestergaard back. Okoli and Nelson cannot play together. I assume Souttar isnt likely to be seen this season. 

Said nobody ever

[steve555]

24 minutes ago, Vacamion said:

 

You can blame the defenders, with justification, but if the keepers won't come for stuff that is looping from high into the 6 yard box, or they palm saves into the feet of attackers, or get caught fannying about trying to play it out, you're going to have a bad time.

 

 

Quite right, the cross for the 2nd goal was in the air along while, keeper should be claiming that. 1st goal was headed in from about 3 yards. Of course the defence is at fault but Begovic should be coming for both of those.

[Wasyls Pec Deck]

Grim. And players signed to play in the league above 🤣 

[cropstonfox]

1 minute ago, steve555 said:

Quite right, the cross for the 2nd goal was in the air along while, keeper should be claiming that. 1st goal was headed in from about 3 yards. Of course the defence is at fault but Begovic should be coming for both of those.

Agreed,we have unfortunately 2 poor keepers.Along with poor full backs.

[Trav Le Bleu]

We're probably a good watch for the neutral.

 

Aside from Coventry, we've had the most goals, 99 for and against (Coventry 105), in our matches, plus our goals tally F and A

are much closer (Coventry's GD is 36) and when we score it often seems to be worldies rather than the more basic tappings or headers from crosses.

[jayfox26]

1 hour ago, foxfanazer said:

Said nobody ever

I dont particularly like him but we can't keep playing Okoli and Nelson, it doesn't work and we dont have any other options. 

[orangecity23]

A case for the defence? Sure there is:

 

 

[GrobyLCFC31]

7th highest scorers currently in the division 

23rd best defensive record 

 

Completely the polar opposite to last time we got relegated to L1 ( that year we got relegated with the second best defensive record - 45 goals conceded in 46 games ) 

 

IF and its a big IF Rowett can fix the leaks we’ve got a chance of survival!
 

Cant afford to be conceding 2 goals and 10+ shots a game and relying on outscoring opposition, it’s not sustainable 

 

Edited 21 February by GrobyLCFC31

[Nolucklcfc]

Nelson desperately needs an experienced head next to him. He’s just not ready to be the main man in defence. 

[Chief Keef]

1 hour ago, foxfanazer said:

Said nobody ever

Statistically the best CB and third best player in the league this season according to Sofascore btw. Not saying I would necessarily agree with that but he must be doing something that our other defenders aren’t.
 

 

[OntarioFox]

We've not even had an issue scoring goals this season, which given that our actual strikers are non-existant is nothing short of a miracle. 

 

We all know what the issue is - we need three goals to win most games, and even that wasn't enough to see off Southampton.

 

 

Rowett's got a seemingly simple job on his hands, but with this lot it's a big ask. Individual errors and failures to do the basics when it comes to tracking opposite numbers have been our undoing, and today Stoke showed how piss-poor we are at defending any sort of well-placed cross with pace.

 

He doesn't really need to coach our attacking players, besides Mavididi who is a greedy bastard who has been costing us chances all season by failing to make the right decisions in the final third. The backline need nearly all of the focus.

 

My question is - What's Gary Rowett's favourite pizza, and when will we get to order one?

[Pita]

We got a group of players some good some bad but we don’t have a team 

[Blue.Fox84]

Still amazes me how we haven’t played a back 5 

 

We’re leaking goals for fun and have issues in attack. 532 or a 541 surely can help solve some of our issues and make us more difficult to play against and give us a different approach in attack 

[Chief Keef]

Don’t want to throw too much negativity in the way of Ben Nelson as I do like him and think he has the qualities to do well for us in the right system. 
 

But our average goals conceded per game before he came into the team was 1.08, and has gone up to 1.86 with him in the team. There are many other factors at play and it’s not all down to him. But he is definitely a part of the problem at the moment.