Renart Posted 9 February 2016 Author Share Posted 9 February 2016 OK, i have calculated it for you. You stand to win £5K if Leicester succeed. Now bet £1000 split between Arsenal, Spurs and Man City. Arsenal - bet £478 @ 9/4 Man City - bet £307 @ 7/2 Totts - bet £215 @ 5/1 All these are current odds. If Leicester win you get £4000 profit. If any of the others win you get £1075 profit. If you bet double on Arsenal, Tottenham and Man City at those odds you would win - Leicester £3000, Totenham £2150, Arsenal £2150, Man City £2150 - GUARENTEED! Well, this is not true as you haven't factored in the remainder of the £1000 I just placed... For example, Arsenal bet £478 @9/4 returns £1075.50 - 522 (1000 - 478) = £553 + I just lost £5 from the original bet = £448. (Edit: I am correct on this am I not?) Admittedly, £448 is better than £0, and it allows me to keep the possibility of winning £4000 but is it better than £1300 right now? Or is better than £1000 now and the possibility of £1000 later? Or £500 now with the possibility of £3000 later? Thanks for all the advice guys. I am likely to cash-out or at least partially cash-out, but will take a couple of days to have a think about it - work out what amount would best serve my needs and what, if any, to leave in. I do also have £100 that I can also cash out from a separate £5 bet I placed on Leicester finishing Top 4 - that also helps. Thanks for everything, especially to those who have offered me really genuine and considered advice. COYB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozleicester Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Yeh, ive changed my mind... take the money and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col city fan Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 only betfair that i can think of let you do a partial cash out. in my opinion as an ex bookie, cash out is a con they make. the money they would give you means they have placed the same bet as you elsewhere to get more return and aint giving you a fair cut. in the long run you lose a fiver if we don't win the league. im not the best financially myself but whats a fiver? 10 fags and a pint if you are lucky? if £1300 can help you out with something then go for it. but if we do it you will kick yourself for the 3.7k you missed out on because of it. come back to us after the arsenal game. if we win it should go over at least 2500 and you can at least cash out knowing you beat the house. Bet 365 do partial cash out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Let it ride, Renart. We are going to do this, and it will sour your moment (if only a little) if you've bottled it. You may even find yourself subconsciously wanting us to fail, during the run-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Flair Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 When we beat Arsenal on Sunday and Man City/Spurs is a draw then the bookies will be begging for you to cash out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawy2510 Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Personally I would cash-out, as much as I love Leicester I also would like to have £1300 to help clear some debt or help towards getting married. Its tough but "IF" we lost the next 2 games or other teams start to catch us your odds will reduce dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 It depends on your financial situation I guess... I'm not exactly rolling in it but if it were me, and I do believe we're going to win the league - I'd let it roll, £1,300 is a lot of money but it's something I could make up with work, and I calculating the way we played, who we have played, how many times we've lost, our confidence, our literal fearlessness - there's something magical about this season that I've never witnessed in any Sport since I was a nipper...there really is... but from reading your OP, if I were in your situation I'd probably cash out though. How much would you stand to win if we do win the league? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain... Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Didn't Arsenal winning on Sunday put them as favourites again? Are the odds still the same when you made this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain... Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 only betfair that i can think of let you do a partial cash out. in my opinion as an ex bookie, cash out is a con they make. the money they would give you means they have placed the same bet as you elsewhere to get more return and aint giving you a fair cut. in the long run you lose a fiver if we don't win the league. im not the best financially myself but whats a fiver? 10 fags and a pint if you are lucky? if £1300 can help you out with something then go for it. but if we do it you will kick yourself for the 3.7k you missed out on because of it. come back to us after the arsenal game. if we win it should go over at least 2500 and you can at least cash out knowing you beat the house. All betting is a con, all odds are set to make bookies money, cash out is no different. Cash out is there to encourage more people to bet, by giving them more factors to consider and more options to bet. Look at the advice on here, "partial cash out", "hedge your bets" etc cash out is there to get you on their website looking at odds more during the course of your bet, thinking more about options and almost convincing yourself you can be clever and beat the bookies when you have already beaten them. The only time you have an option of cashing out is when the odds have come in, if you are a serious/statistically minded gambler you would never cash out, but to a part gambler like Renart it is so tempting, because all he can see is the possibility of getting nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 If you don't cash out how long and how much will it cost you to clear your credit card. It could well be worth a lot more to you than the £1300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScouseFox Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 only betfair that i can think of let you do a partial cash out. in my opinion as an ex bookie, cash out is a con they make. the money they would give you means they have placed the same bet as you elsewhere to get more return and aint giving you a fair cut. in the long run you lose a fiver if we don't win the league. im not the best financially myself but whats a fiver? 10 fags and a pint if you are lucky? if £1300 can help you out with something then go for it. but if we do it you will kick yourself for the 3.7k you missed out on because of it. come back to us after the arsenal game. if we win it should go over at least 2500 and you can at least cash out knowing you beat the house. 365 & paddy do partial cash out too. probably skybet and maybe a few others too. it's obviously a "con" and not "value" to a hardened gambler (unless your bet loses then in hindsight it was a good idea) but to someone who isn't very experienced at it, no offence @@Renart, the percentages lost here or there are probably irrelevant. to him it's £5 into £1300, £5 into £5000 or £5 into £0. it's not about the "true cashout value" or "beating the bookie" or any other gambling idea. it's about having over a grand in place of a fiver or potentially having nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manwell Pablo Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Never bet more than you can afford to loose they say, only conundrum is you're only actually losing a fiver I suppose. . One thing I will say against what a lot of people in here have said is if your going to leave it, leave it longer than Arsenal, Wenger is one manager who seemed to totally have our number and I can't see us getting a result which will mean the price will drop before it improves, you may as well take it now if your going to. Even if we win it's best left a few games, with Baggies and Narch at home straight after the way we've been playing recently we will take them apart. Think that stuck out for me is you said you aren't a gambler. I'd just take your money and forget it if £1300 is a lot to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxholecharlie Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 I am not a gambling man so can't offer advise about odds or what ever. But I know one thing, if this is as it seems to be a lot of money to you then cash it in. If we don't win the league you will look back and say if only. Take the money mate and consider what a great season on and off the field it has been for you. All the best with married life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col city fan Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Never bet more than you can afford to loose they say, only conundrum is you're only actually losing a fiver I suppose. . One thing I will say against what a lot of people in here have said is if your going to leave it, leave it longer than Arsenal, Wenger is one manager who seemed to totally have our number and I can't see us getting a result which will mean the price will drop before it improves, you may as well take it now if your going to. Even if we win it's best left a few games, with Baggies and Narch at home straight after the way we've been playing recently we will take them apart. Think that stuck out for me is you said you aren't a gambler. I'd just take your money and forget it if £1300 is a lot to you. Not again! It's 'lose'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simster Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Forgive me for interrupting, but this interested me so I posted it on our (Brighton) forum. I think the consensus was that rather than cashing out, you should lay some of the bet off at Betfair. Leicester were layable yesterday at 3.45 (now 3.6).At 3.45, the OP could lay the £1300 that he obviously needs, thus exposing himself to £3185 if Leicester do win the league.That means that if Leicester win the league, his net winnings would be £5000 on the original bet, less the £3185 liability above, which is £1,815. If Leicester don't win the league, he'd win the £1300 laid on Betfair. The only downside to this is that he would need to tie up £3185 at Betfair until May. On the other hand, if the OP cashes out the £1300 on his original bet, he doesn't benefit any further if Leicester do win the league, which obviously we all hope happens. He could be kissing goodbye to another £500+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rincewind Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 I am not sure. If I had bet a fiver on this I would not expect to be in this position so it would be £5 loss. If I needed the money I would cash out and be £1300 better off. The £5000 would not happen unless City won it so would not belong to me or anyone in fact. It would be in betting limbo. If you bet the fiver for a laugh being a City fan and do not need the money then I would be tempted to see the outcome as you would if they were currently bottom. The fiver would be gone and you would shrug your shoulders and say its only a fiver. Just be happy that you have the predicament.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simster Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 I'd be interested to know whether the cash out amount has shrunk owing to the fact that the price for a Leicester title win has drifted a bit since he posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renart Posted 9 February 2016 Author Share Posted 9 February 2016 The difference is £5. You've opened yourself up to a lot of existential angst (and other people's) by asking for advice on this forum. Ask yourself what you've really to lose or gain. £1300 is not a huge amount of money in the scheme of your life - £5000 makes a bigger difference. You put the bet on as a punt - when City weren't expected to even make a stab at it. Now you're creating this huge emotional problem for yourself over a speculative bet. It's money that you never could have expected to make anyway. If you win you'll be the bloke who fleeced a bookie (and who doesn't love that - except said bookie) - if you lose then it's a fiver and City haven't done it. Can I say one thing, there is no existential angst or huge emotional problem. I said in the OP that it was 'starting to eat me up a little' and that it 'is starting to get real and it is starting to feel irresponsible not to take it', but I also said that 'this is going to be my decision' and that I 'would love some opinions'. At present, this thread has been both interesting, fun and informative. It has served its purpose and given me opinion, options, stimulated discussion and has been fun. Until this time it hasn't gone the way of many threads on here and turned into something else. I think that is probably why @@Col city fan has enjoyed it so much. I appreciate your concern but don't worry. I spend quite a bit of time on this forum and thought that people would be interested, that is all; it is a forum after all. Maybe all of these opinions might not be helpful in the long run but I have learnt a lot and have been quite refreshingly surprised by the detail of the debate and ideas coming from this. I might be frustrated, after all of this has been concluded, if I feel that I made the wrong decision but it would only be frustration - I am getting married in June and Leicester are top of the league! Forget the bet for a minute. I love my club but if Leicester lose the chance to win the league they will still have had an amazing year and I will still by getting married. If they win the league then that is a phenomenal bonus in an already phenomenal year! The money is important and it will affect but not define this year! Thanks for your concern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renart Posted 9 February 2016 Author Share Posted 9 February 2016 Let it ride, Renart. We are going to do this, and it will sour your moment (if only a little) if you've bottled it. You may even find yourself subconsciously wanting us to fail, during the run-in. Dude, you know that I am always in the habit of listening to you (seriously).... ha ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renart Posted 9 February 2016 Author Share Posted 9 February 2016 365 & paddy do partial cash out too. probably skybet and maybe a few others too. Mate, your change of avatar picture thing has really confused me and I cannot take you seriously anymore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Dude, you know that I am always in the habit of listening to you (seriously).... ha ha! Can we see a screen print on Monday to show us what the decision was ? I'm hoping you were sensible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renart Posted 9 February 2016 Author Share Posted 9 February 2016 Didn't Arsenal winning on Sunday put them as favourites again? Are the odds still the same when you made this thread? I'd be interested to know whether the cash out amount has shrunk owing to the fact that the price for a Leicester title win has drifted a bit since he posted. The cash out amount is still the same but this thread was started after the Arsenal game (wasn't it?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 to be fair to the guy who stands to win 25k... i think sometimes you sort of start believing that you knew it would happen - even if it was a laugh at the time - i guess what he might have meant is if we kept our incredible form on to avoid relegation we'd be up there, and it's exactly what we did... we played quite a few different teams at the start of 2015 - beating most and hardly losing any ... no reason why that couldn't continue - and when i put it like that, i bloody well wish i'd have put a bet on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renart Posted 9 February 2016 Author Share Posted 9 February 2016 Can we see a screen print on Monday to show us what the decision was ? I'm hoping you were sensible As it is at the moment: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeds Fox Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 Well done Renart. Great punt. I can only see your cashout value being worth around £1200-2000 right up until the final few games. The reason being, at least one of Arsenal, Man City or Spurs are going to keep up with us until the final few games, and that's also relying on us not to slip up. If you're planning on waiting to see if the cash out increases to then cash out for a higher sum, I'd just do it now. From here on in I'd say your decision is all or nothing. A bad result against Arsenal and the cashout will fall towards a grand and may not rise much before you think it's time to take the money and run. The statement from people 'you'll only have lost a fiver' is nonsense. You made an investment that's worth £1330 in CASH to you right now, that is essentially yours to take, so that would be a loss. There's a difference between a result going against you on an Accumulator which has 'lost' you £x of potential winnings and having an actual cashout value on a bet. I'm sure you'll make the right choice! Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.