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Les-TA-Jon

The road to a 1st Place or 4th Place finish

By Les-TA-Jon, in Leicester City Forum

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
Posted

Even if Spurs beat West Brom, Chelsea and Southampton (taking them to 77 points), we'd only need to win 1 and draw 2 from our next 3 against Swansea, United and Everton in order to only have to match what Spurs do on the last day.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that, but for me that's the worst case scenario. We aren't taking less than 5 points from those 3. With Spurs playing a Newcastle side hopefully clinging on to their Premier League status, we'd have a chance.

As it happens I don't think Spurs will take 9 points from West Brom, Chelsea and Southampton and we'll take more than 5 points against Swansea, United and Everton anyway. Both teams will likely take 7 points from the next 3 games. Unsure on the order but presuming our draw comes against United we'd take the title at home V Everton.

Put another way, all we need to do is match Spurs' results for the next 2 games and we'd have to lose one and draw one of our last games 2 to give Spurs any chance at all. 

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SpinneyHillRanger

SpinneyHillRanger

Posted
Posted

I like that point mentioned before about who concedes first in the games.

 

For us, we do have wiggle room. If the other team scores, we can afford a draw or two. We can also afford to go all out and risk the loss - which if we did, would mean we have to get three wins - assuming spurs win all their games.

 

Personally I wouldn't see a couple of draws a disaster. I can see us beating everton and chelsea team on the last day.

 

 

On the other hand, as was mentioned above - if spurs concede the pressure on them to score 2 goals to get the win, is immense. It is like the away goals rule for them. They have to go for the wins and risk a loss by pushing harder for the win.

 

 

We are still in the driving seat. Beating Swansea will make everything seem a lot easier. Draw swansea and we MUST NOT LOSE at Old trafford. if the unthinkable happens against Swansea, then we are looking at the prospect ofgoing to old trafford looking for a win.

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biggs

biggs

Posted
Posted

One win by us and a loss by them will cause a major meltdown with the spurs fans and much despair in the spurs camp. They look great on recent form but things change quickly in this game and their high flying goal scoring might be set for a stumble. It happens and suddenly the chase will lose all its momentum.

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nnfox

nnfox

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Posted

We don't need to waste time worrying about whether other teams will take points off Spurs.  The way I see it - and I've said it before - we need 4 points from Swansea at home and Man U away.  Then we need another 4 points from Everton at home and Chelsea away.  Even if we lose against Swansea, we still have destiny in our own hands with just 3 to play.  It is all do-able with or without Vardy.  Achieve that then I'd be happy to see Spurs win their next 4 games 10-0.

 

The major benefit from Spurs dropping points would be a bit more positivity around this forum.

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Merging Cultures

Merging Cultures

Posted
Posted

Not that historical performance against opposition means much, but..

 

The last 6 games against our upcoming opponents, we have only taken 31.94% of the available points:

  • Swansea; 9 points = 50%
  • Man U; 4 points = 22%
  • Everton; 7 points = 39%
  • Chelsea; 3 points = 32%

Which over the next 4 games means we would get just 3.83 points (4). Giving us a potential total of just 77. A win against Swansea and a draw against Everton would be about what we'd expect from our previous matches with them. I do not expect us to win away at Man U, but potentially Chelsea could give us something on the last day. However, this is well under our current points per game rate, so we should expect to get more points.

 

Spurs have taken 55.56% of the points from the last 6 games against their upcoming opponents.

 

Available points taken:

  • West Brom; 9 points = 50%
  • Chelsea; 6 points = 33%
  • Southampton; 16 points = 89%
  • Newcastle; 9 points = 50%

Which from the next 4 games, gives them 6.67 points (7). Which would only give them 75 points total. This fits closely to their current points per game of 2, which assumes they would get a maximum of 76 points. I can see Spurs winning at home to West Brom, losing to Chelsea away, then winning at home against Southampton, and Newcastle digging in to get a draw at St James' at avoid relegation?! So, w (h), l (a), w (h), d (a) = 7 points and 75 points total. They are obviously on form at the moment, and so they should expect to win more.

 

This isn't good statistical analysis, but it does give me a bit more confidence. 

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Raw Dykes

Raw Dykes

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Posted

Chances are, Spurs will carry on their great form and win all four of their remaining matches. They might draw a game, but I doubt they'll drop more than 2 points.

 

This means we have to assume they'll get to 80 points and we will need 8 more.

 

I think we would probably have pissed it before the West Ham match, but Vardy's suspension has thrown a little spanner in the works.

 

I'm not really worried about the Swansea match. I think we'll beat them with or without Vardy. They're not a great team, and they have nothing to play for. I think we'll want the win far more than they will.

 

The trip to Old Trafford is the toughest game we have left, especially if we're still without Vardy. They're the only side we have left to play who will actually need the points as much as we will. I'd be happy with a point.

 

Everton at home is one we should win. They were battered by Liverpool last night, are struggling and won't have anything riding on the result. Hopefully, Vardy will be back for this and we'll get the 3 points.

 

If we've got 7 more points on the board by the last match, then we'll probably only need a point at Chelsea (assuming Spurs get maximum points) to win the title. They might be on the beach, and they might rather we won it than the Cocks. There's a good chance it will be a weakened Chelsea side, but then they have got a lot of strength in depth.

 

My nerves will be shredded if we need anything on the final day. Let's get it done before then please.

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biggs

biggs

Posted
Posted

Chances are, Spurs will carry on their great form and win all four of their remaining matches. They might draw a game, but I doubt they'll drop more than 2 points.

 

 

Chances are we will carry on and win our next four matches. We might draw a game but I doubt we'll drop more than 2 points......just saying

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st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted

Just can't see Chelsea getting anything from their game. Even hiddink said all the players are saving themselves for the euros.

Southampton and Newcastle will be the best chance of slip ups. Especially if Newcastle are still fighting for survival

 

current matches are showing that teams with nothing to play for aren't getting results against teams that do. there will always be exceptions but that's the general trend.

 

Southampton will have nothing to play for when they go to WHL. there is a feeling that there is no love lost between the clubs due to poch leaving. however, most of the soton players (not fans) will have plenty of affection for him and will have no desire to stop him achieving his dream. I wouldn't expect them to go the extra mile to get a result.  if we cant get enough points before game 38, then we must hope that Newcastle need something to stay up. a point would be good. three might seem too much and stretch their mental state.

 

Chelsea do have something to play for against spurs. its a local derby and its Chelsea's most bitter London rival (qpr don't count). it matters.

 

we just need to hold our nerve.

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ramboacdc

ramboacdc

Posted
Posted

Obviously I'll do a full update after the match tonight...but this thread is less useful given how close we are. 

 

5 points required max! 

 

If we win just one more game and Spurs don't get maximum points it's ours!

even so i do enjoy looking at the table.

 

its so nice to look at :)

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

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UPDATE after we thrashed the Swans and Spurs bottled it against the Baggies

 

 

 

Well there's really not much more to add. 3 is a magic number.

 

3p08MGI.png

 

Any combination of 3 points gained by us and/or lost by Spurs and we've won the league.

 

I can't fvcking believe it. So we win just 1 game and it's ours. Or we draw 1 game and Spurs drop any more points and it's ours. It's pretty simple now folks!  

 

Obviously we'd want to win the league any way possible, but since it's so close, I'd love us to get 'only' a draw at Man U, so we can win it at home against Everton. 

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