HoustonFox Posted 12 April 2016 Posted 12 April 2016 Every time I read this I get more and more nervous but more and more excited. Spurs really looked good on Sunday, I just hope we can get over the line... One loss for them will be devastating in my opinion. It's the Championship run in again to see who blinks....
Les-TA-Jon Posted 13 April 2016 Author Posted 13 April 2016 Thanks for all the kind words guys - It's just a simple Excel sheet! Spurs can't get to 79 points. If we get to 79 points and Spurs draw just one game then we've won the league. Well Spurs can get to 80 if they get maximum points... But yes, the point still stands, as in my last update, that Spurs are in a perilous position - they basically can't really drop many points at all and retain a realistic chance You need to get your priorities straight. It's this pesky PhD I'm doing
stripeyfox Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 So we know that we need 9 points, assuming that Spurs win all five remaining games Of course it could be less, but how much exactly? Spurs have five games left. For my calcs I am going to gift them three wins (at least) If they: W4 D1 L0 - we need 7 points W4 D0 L1 - we need 6 points W3 D2 L0 - we need 5 points W3 D1 L1 - we need 4 points W3 D0 L2 - we need 3 points (I've allowed for us needed +1 point due to our inferior GD) Made me feel better (for a short time at least)
Merging Cultures Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 When Spurs draw away against Chelsea and we are away at Man U... I think that will be it. I hope we win the next two, giving us 6 points, and then we will draw at Man U giving us 7. Chelsea will shut up shop, park the bus, build a wall and not let them win.
Merging Cultures Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 Knock yourselves out: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cgGyFlVP4oSzODci3-CvJA2phL6wA9HPbFAKpSgXIvk/edit?usp=sharing
ramboacdc Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 Hahaha - sorry guys was really busy yesterday afternoon and today - here it is: UPDATE after Sunderland So obviously as we all know by now - we are but 9 points away from the title, regardless of any other results. With 15 points to play for, that's 3 wins, or 2 wins and 3 draws. But of course the 9 points needed can only go down. Spurs really can't afford to drop much at all, assuming we don't come unstuck ourselves. We can drop 6 points in the next 5 games and still get the 9 points required - a rate of 1.2 points dropped per game - when our average so far this season is 0.81 (27 points dropped in 33 games). We can look at tables and stats all we want, but what is likely to occur in the next few matches? It's very conceivable that both teams will drop a few points. With our cushion, that's where it get's worse for Spurs. For instance, if we get just 4 more points, and spurs drop 4 points it's over. Ultimately there's very little margin for error for Spurs. But this discussion is assuming that we will continue to slug it out as we have recently and find a way to win. Can we really just keep plodding on? Who knows. But I think things could get very tight, if we were to lose against a very good West Ham, with Carroll and Payet in great form, and Spurs take the initiative with a win at Stoke. All of a sudden we could have 'only' a 4 point gap. And sure that's technically still a 'two-result' cushion with 4 games to go, but the squad could become self-aware and feel like they've got something to lose. Of course we could win our next two, Spurs win and draw theirs and we'd be on 78 points, the same as Spurs' total potential max. surely we play before or after spurs for game 4 now we are half 5 kick off on saturday?
zealot Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 Knock yourselves out: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cgGyFlVP4oSzODci3-CvJA2phL6wA9HPbFAKpSgXIvk/edit?usp=sharing Loving your work Merging Cultures! This would be fun: Leicester City 72 34 West Ham h d 1 35 Swansea h d 1 36 Man U a d 1 37 Everton h d 1 38 Chelsea a d 1 5 77 Tottenham Hotspur 65 34 Stoke a w 3 35 West Brom h d 1 36 Chelsea a d 1 37 Southampton h w 3 38 Newcastle a w 3 11 76
zealot Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 Loving your work Merging Cultures! This would be fun: Leicester City 72 34 West Ham h d 1 35 Swansea h d 1 36 Man U a d 1 37 Everton h d 1 38 Chelsea a d 1 5 77 Tottenham Hotspur 65 34 Stoke a w 3 35 West Brom h d 1 36 Chelsea a d 1 37 Southampton h w 3 38 Newcastle a w 3 11 76 OH GOD! note to self - don't post excel tables into thread
Merging Cultures Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 Loving your work Merging Cultures! This would be fun: Leicester City 72 34 West Ham h d 1 35 Swansea h d 1 36 Man U a d 1 37 Everton h d 1 38 Chelsea a d 1 5 77 Tottenham Hotspur 65 34 Stoke a w 3 35 West Brom h d 1 36 Chelsea a d 1 37 Southampton h w 3 38 Newcastle a w 3 11 76 Thanks!! That looks like squeeky bum time though!! Would much prefer if we won it with a draw at Man U
Guest LCFC_World Posted 13 April 2016 Posted 13 April 2016 Did a premier league prediction table, and this is what i got. I was not biased when doing this... 1 Leicester 81 2 Tottenham 78 3 Arsenal 77 It's gonna be close...
FoxFossil Posted 14 April 2016 Posted 14 April 2016 OH GOD! note to self - don't post excel tables into thread Takes a PhD apparently
MONreborn Posted 17 April 2016 Posted 17 April 2016 Ok so just done soone maths. The max points that spurs can get are 80. If they draw a game then their max is 78 points. Therefore 2 wins will take us to 79. Two wins may be enough! All fingers crossed against swansea. Possibly the biggest game in our history ( until the next one!) If stoke can even get a draw tomorrow I think the city will be buzzing!
Merging Cultures Posted 17 April 2016 Posted 17 April 2016 Ok so just done soone maths. The max points that spurs can get are 80. If they draw a game then their max is 78 points. Therefore 2 wins will take us to 79. Two wins may be enough! All fingers crossed against swansea. Possibly the biggest game in our history ( until the next one!) If stoke can even get a draw tomorrow I think the city will be buzzing! No need to do the maths, just look a few posts up.
Les-TA-Jon Posted 19 April 2016 Author Posted 19 April 2016 UPDATE after West Ham and Spurs v Stoke I hate this now - I feel sick just thinking about the next 4 weekends... So - as we all know - we now need 'just' 8 points to win the league, regardless of what anyone else does. 3 points guarantees us a top 2 finish too. Let's be optimistic... We 'only' need 2 wins and 2 draws. Or 3 wins and a draw. We can 'afford' to drop 4 points. That's at the same time as Spurs winning their remaining 4 games - a tough order in this league? West Brom can frustrate. Chelsea are still no slouches. Soton are still chasing Europe. Newcastle could be fighting for their lives. We 'only' need 8 points and that requirement can only go down. We've dropped 0.85 points per game so far, if we maintain that we win the league on 82 points. We've got incredible fighting spirit, having lost only 3 times all season and only 4 times in the last 43 matches! We kept going against West Ham, despite a crap ref and 1 man down. They'll be buzzing surely? They won't be thinking about anyone or anything else, but those 8 points. Spurs have dropped 1 point per game, meaning they could conceivably finish on 76. They play after us on the next three occasions. We still get to set the agenda. Anytime they are struggling, drawing or losing a game, they'll be looking at the 'abyss'. Let's be pessimistic... But that's a whopping 8 points out of 12. We can 'only' drop 4 points. We may have to win 3 out of 4 to win! Is that too perilous? We've got the tougher 4 fixtures on paper: Swansea - all the pressure is on us to win Man Utd - chasing top 4 and coming into form Everton - erm....? Who know's which will turn up. Lukaku is deadly Chelsea - still no slouches We've got to assume that Spurs will win all their remaining games, they won 6 in a row earlier in the season from 16/01/16 to 28/02/16 (fixture 22 to 27). Could they do the same here? They're free scoring at the moment - solid defense too. The momentum seems to be with them. And Vardy is missing for 2 games minimum and it's conceivable that he might not play again this season (1 for the double yellow + 3 for calling the ref a fvcking cvnt - surely a 3 match ban in any case...?) Vardy isn't just any old striker that can be replaced. He epitomizes our play and our whole attacking style is set up to use and exploit him. Without him I'd worry that we'd revert to a lump it up to Ulloa approach - scrappy 1-0's may be coming again - which is fine - it just won us 5 games, but it's potentially too fragile, when we can't afford to drop many more points. I'm losing my mind....
zealot Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 UPDATE after West Ham and Spurs v Stoke I hate this now - I feel sick just thinking about the next 4 weekends... So - as we all know - we now need 'just' 8 points to win the league, regardless of what anyone else does. 3 points guarantees us a top 2 finish too. Let's be optimistic... We 'only' need 2 wins and 2 draws. Or 3 wins and a draw. We can 'afford' to drop 4 points. That's at the same time as Spurs winning their remaining 4 games - a tough order in this league? West Brom can frustrate. Chelsea are still no slouches. Soton are still chasing Europe. Newcastle could be fighting for their lives. We 'only' need 8 points and that requirement can only go down. We've dropped 0.85 points per game so far, if we maintain that we win the league on 82 points. We've got incredible fighting spirit, having lost only 3 times all season and only 4 times in the last 43 matches! We kept going against West Ham, despite a crap ref and 1 man down. They'll be buzzing surely? They won't be thinking about anyone or anything else, but those 8 points. Spurs have dropped 1 point per game, meaning they could conceivably finish on 76. They play after us on the next three occasions. We still get to set the agenda. Anytime they are struggling, drawing or losing a game, they'll be looking at the 'abyss'. Cheers Jon. Let's just focus on the optimistic. We're still in the driving seat and it is completely in our hands. I'd have ravenously bitten the hand off of anyone that would have offered this situation at the start of the season. 5 points clear with four to play. Yes PLEASE! I'm not even going to read the pessimistic part of your post
foxes_rule1978 Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 We only need 5 points if Spurs lose one game... we still have this, just hope Chelsea and Southampton turn up against them.
Strokes Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 We only need 5 points if Spurs lose one game... we still have this, just hope Chelsea and Southampton turn up against them. I wouldn't discount west brom, they have upset bigger teams than Spurs in the past.
AndWhat? Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 Spurs draw away at Chelsea and win the rest of their matches, we win against Swansea and Everton and lose to United and Chelsea and we win the league at home to Everton. That isn't that unrealistic. Well, it is because it would mean Leicester ****ing City are Champions of England!
filbertway Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 Fancy us to reclaim the 7pt lead this weekend, West Brom are going to have one of their trademark tight games and get a lovely 0-0. Then we beat United to win the title. Schlupp hitting the cross bar from half a yard out and kingy heading in the rebound.
tsintskaro Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 I wouldn't discount west brom, they have upset bigger teams than Spurs in the past. like Leicester
Guest Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 Nothing to worry about, wait till next game you'll see. Vardy isn't be all and end all we have some world class players
Suffolk exile Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 After last night's win and Vardy's suspension looming, it has made me even more determined to do it inspite of us being robbed of Vardy. It would add even more glory to it. But I am starting to feel anxious and having feelings of self-doubt for the first time. We can still do this, can't we?
Rincewind Posted 19 April 2016 Posted 19 April 2016 Just hope West Brom Chelsea etal put up more fight against Spurs than Stoke Looks like it is up to the City to do the job without help. Suits me but more nerve racking.
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.