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yorkie1999

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35 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

So, is this roughly where we currently are with Brexit........?

 

- Unsurprisingly, May's pretend/non-existent negotiations with the EU have yielded no meaningful concessions.

- However, this pretence has allowed her to postpone the meaningful vote until 12th March, which was her intention in the first place (run down the clock, then pressure parliament to pass her deal at last minute).

- The Cooper/Letwin amendment might win approval, triggering a vote on 13th March as to whether May should request a short Article 50 extension if her deal has been rejected the previous day. 

- May is pretending to oppose Cooper/Letwin, but would really like it to succeed, as she'd be able to use it as a threat to force the ERG, DUP & Lab Brexiteers to support her deal on 12th March, for fear of losing Brexit altogether.

- If May's deal loses on 12th and the amendment passes on 13th, it's distinctly possible that the EU will reject our application for a short extension as meaningless given lack of any plan, so we could be heading for No Deal with a week to go

- If the EU agrees such an extension, we'd have 3 months to sort it out, as only a longer, more meaningful extension would be possible after that due to complications (EU elections, budget contributions etc.)

- If May's deal is defeated & the request for an extension is made but rejected (or is itself rejected), there will be parliamentary moves to get a 2nd referendum (or possibly an election), which might then succeed

- More likely than a bill for a 2nd referendum, something like the Kyle/Wilson amendment might pass, approving May's deal subject to a 2nd referendum (allying Remainers & Soft Brexiteers to exclude Hard Brexiteers)

- Meanwhile, Corbyn will be under intense party pressure to support a referendum or at least Kyle/Wilson, while May is under intense pressure from both wings of her party

- Oh, and even if May's Deal does pass, future legislation to implement it might not pass and/or might require an Article 50 extension due to all the delays (though the EU would probably agree that extension as an end  would be in sight....apart from the years of negotiations over the future relationship :D)

 

Meanwhile, I pity any poor sod dependent on import/export, just-in-time supply lines or foreign investment.

 

There really is a strong chance of last-minute chaos or an accidental, unplanned No Deal, isn't there? And a strong likelihood of massive public controversy, whatever the final outcome? What a pitiful and damaging fiasco! 

Is there any way you could explain to me why you think this? The eu are already discussing extensions, surely the pressure our side would be far too much to simply ignore the offer of an extension if it was there. Even if I don't personally see the point of an extension (since May will play the same stall tactics again) I can't see it not being taken when the alternative is no deal. 

 

Still don't think May's deal will pass though, so interesting times still ahead. 

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1 minute ago, Innovindil said:

Is there any way you could explain to me why you think this? The eu are already discussing extensions, surely the pressure our side would be far too much to simply ignore the offer of an extension if it was there. Even if I don't personally see the point of an extension (since May will play the same stall tactics again) I can't see it not being taken when the alternative is no deal. 

 

Still don't think May's deal will pass though, so interesting times still ahead. 

 

Probably need a flow chart to try to understand the potential outcomes but.....

 

There's a distinct chance that May will lose her meaningful vote on 12th March, then parliament will pass the motion to request a short extension on 13th March.

It'll presumably take the EU a few days to finalise their response and it's distinctly possible that they'll reject that request unless it has some purpose (deal likely to be passed, UK wants to negotiate Softer deal, UK election/referendum in offing).

 

It seems that the EU would be happy with a short extension to finalise implementation of May's deal, if passed. It also seems happy with the idea of a longer extension (e.g. 1-2 years, transition period) but that's unlikely to win a parliamentary majority. It's not at all clear that the EU would accept a request for a short extension with no solution on the horizon.....hence the possibility of political mayhem or No Deal in late March.

 

That might not happen, of course. May might win a majority for her deal on 12th March, parliament might agree a much longer extension or the EU might agree a short extension in the hope that something comes up (though that couldn't go on beyond June/July, probably).

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54 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Probably need a flow chart to try to understand the potential outcomes but.....

 

There's a distinct chance that May will lose her meaningful vote on 12th March, then parliament will pass the motion to request a short extension on 13th March.

It'll presumably take the EU a few days to finalise their response and it's distinctly possible that they'll reject that request unless it has some purpose (deal likely to be passed, UK wants to negotiate Softer deal, UK election/referendum in offing).

 

It seems that the EU would be happy with a short extension to finalise implementation of May's deal, if passed. It also seems happy with the idea of a longer extension (e.g. 1-2 years, transition period) but that's unlikely to win a parliamentary majority. It's not at all clear that the EU would accept a request for a short extension with no solution on the horizon.....hence the possibility of political mayhem or No Deal in late March.

 

That might not happen, of course. May might win a majority for her deal on 12th March, parliament might agree a much longer extension or the EU might agree a short extension in the hope that something comes up (though that couldn't go on beyond June/July, probably).

May is holding her own MPs ,the Electorate, Uks Business  to ransom...the opposition has no argument,and nobody is there to tell her she's fired!!!

 

I am a socialist and lean perhaps to center-left.  No way is Corbyns politics far left,he is just a Moron,and just Labours eequivalent to T.May..just ,stubbornly-stupid.

Plus neither not listening to their people on the street,but their own party's inner voices..

 

Though now with me it is immaterial,it still hurts that UK backbenchers have lost their voice (both sides of the house). the Daily-politics have been deliberately Pushed aside..and your elected local politician either side of the divide seem to have no voice or actual 'Say'...

 

My next choice of vote,will be in the German...Local/MEP/country elections...so as an expat I have no further influence with any UK vote..

I was a remainer,but the Brexitiers have been kicked in the teeth,and any great political moves and Actions the UK could of taken on their behalf, has been ruined...UK had a big chance to become quasi a new Island state with separate ties to Europe,and the rest of future business partners...

That has been blown!!  over these last 3 years,and what's worse....nobody in power or in business advisory organisations saw or even realised this side of the coin...The UK has and Island with its N.Irish partner had an alternative,because it wasn't landlocked...

.UK politics and it's cronies ..Blew it...!!!

The words and action on negotiate and Deals...we're not necessary, only perhaps on the leaving costs,per responsibilities to contract-EU-payment...

Edited by fuchsntf
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So many satellite TV channels have disappeared over the years. First, Mrs.T banned RHD. Then we had the D2MAC system to watch Filmnet, TV1000 and Canal+. Then we had an era of digital hacks. Nowadays, encrypted European channels are verboten. So much for European integration!  

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1 hour ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

The whole brexit fiasco has been caused by the remainers saboteuring every solution May has come up with, they’ll be a second referendum and we’ll vote to remain, the manoeuvres made by the remainers has been very clever.

It's almost as if they're competent and have a plan, unlike our glorious leave politicians.

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4 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

The whole brexit fiasco has been caused by the remainers saboteuring every solution May has come up with, they’ll be a second referendum and we’ll vote to remain, the manoeuvres made by the remainers has been very clever.

I read that in the voice of Mark Lawrenson. 

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6 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

The whole brexit fiasco has been caused by the remainers saboteuring every solution May has come up with, they’ll be a second referendum and we’ll vote to remain, the manoeuvres made by the remainers has been very clever.

The fiasco has been caused by people believing the twin myths of a) complete national sovereignty existing in the modern world and b) British exceptionalism. It is on these myths that Brexit was founded. 

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5 minutes ago, bovril said:

The fiasco has been caused by people believing the twin myths of a) complete national sovereignty existing in the modern world and b) British exceptionalism. It is on these myths that Brexit was founded. 

I would say both of those factors are inextricably linked tbh. When you believe that your country is exceptional, you also tend to believe it can stand alone and uniquely sovereign.

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5 minutes ago, bovril said:

The fiasco has been caused by people believing the twin myths of a) complete national sovereignty existing in the modern world and b) British exceptionalism. It is on these myths that Brexit was founded. 

Built on lies by both sides, everyone I speak to are sick of the whole thing.

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And I'm sure this has been covered before, but Brexit and other similar events from 2016 and more recently are indicative of a pushback from those who believe the last word on every single important matter involving a nation should be left to that nation and only that nation.

 

Is this compatible with the way the Earth is and changes now?

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Built on lies by both sides, everyone I speak to are sick of the whole thing.

During the campaign there were lies on both sides, yes. But there was more truth on the remain side, in my humble opinion.

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14 minutes ago, bovril said:

And sorry but you can't really say "there were lies on both sides and this is why we are in this mess". Brexit won. We are Brexiting. 

I missed the whole campaign as I was out of the country. And that’s been my whole issue with the referendum to begin with - I was only abroad for 6 months but for such a huge colossal decision Cameron essentially called a snap referendum with 4 months of debates and created a situation whereby absolutely everyone on all sides could make any claim or promise they wanted but not a single one of them were accountable for it nor were even in any power to see it through if their side won.

 

The result can’t be reversed because the ballot paper promised it would be implemented and neither did it imply that there would be a second referendum afterwards just in case.

 

Cameron and his aides have royally ****ed this up for the whole country and should be held accountable for it.

 

And the only person who has actually pointed this out is Danny ****ing Dyer.

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