Beechey Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 Poll without TIG included: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: It could destroy the Lib Dems, but my instinct is that it will take more votes from Labour than from the Tories. There are a lot more Labour voters opposed to Corbyn's Brexit stance and/or other policies than there are Tory voters opposed to the Tory Brexit stance or other Tory policies, I think - and those who hate May's policies mostly support ERG-type policies, not Remain & centrist policies.... This poll supports that.....but only to some extent. It was obviously done after the Labour defections but before the Tory defections. Anything remotely like this poll would reproduce the 1983 election - Hard Right Tory landslide (probably with the IG being wiped out, but handing lots of Labour seats to the Tories). I think so, despite Brexit even most Tory Remain voters seem to see Corbyn and McDonnell as a bigger threat than anything. I'm not surprised by that poll - I know a few people who voted Labour despite the hard left, if you go a bit more in depth into that poll Labour voters are about 50/50 on who they feel are closer to them in either in the independents or the Corbynites. The only option for Labour to be elected now is just to hope people hate the Tories that much they'll be prepared to let them in. If the hard left does kill the Labour party it's membership can't say it wasn't warned. The Tories at least have the majority of their voters and members behind them if they go in the direction of the right - but it should still be a broad church, just not so broad people like Wollaston can remain in it. Another problem for Labour is whatever they think of Umanna, Leslie, Berger etc - they were decent media performers for the party and those sort of politicians are hard to come by these days - replacing them with more Chris Williamson can't be successful. The one they had on Politics Live was unbelievable yesterday, Faz Shaheen or something and when questioned on Derek Hatton she replied "I was a too young then so no idea" in the way you would expect a schoolkid to answer. We've already had Jared O' Mara, Kate Osamor, the one who went to prison whose name escapes me - they clearly aren't vetting candidates properly. Edited 20 February 2019 by MattP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMX11 Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 24 minutes ago, Beechey said: Might simply be because at the time of the fieldwork, only Labour MPs had defected. I suspect it would be slightly different now. Agreed, however I don't see this splinter group being any significant political force in any case. I would however say that the base of the Con members are pro Brexit and this appears to be the anti Brexit party more than anything else. Labour will therefore in my view be more affected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban.spaceman Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 Awkward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakman Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 I only thing that comes as a surprise with these MP's joining the NCP is how much I fancy Heidi Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 Chris Williamson on Sky News now. "Given what she went through do you think it was right the last time Jeremy Corbyn spoke to Luciana Berger was in 2017?" His response was "Well it takes two to tango" - with a straight face. There won't be any moderates left in the party by 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban.spaceman Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 Jesus H Christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 12 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said: Jesus H Christ. Gerrimin! Seriously though why not? His views are now perfectly in line with the Labour party leadership, NEC and most probably activists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnderbyFox Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 35 minutes ago, MattP said: Chris Williamson on Sky News now. "Given what she went through do you think it was right the last time Jeremy Corbyn spoke to Luciana Berger was in 2017?" His response was "Well it takes two to tango" - with a straight face. There won't be any moderates left in the party by 2020. I've learnt to ignore everything Chris Williamson says, he's just as untrustworthy now as he was when he was the Demon Headmaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 1 hour ago, MattP said: I think so, despite Brexit even most Tory Remain voters seem to see Corbyn and McDonnell as a bigger threat than anything. I'm not surprised by that poll - I know a few people who voted Labour despite the hard left, if you go a bit more in depth into that poll Labour voters are about 50/50 on who they feel are closer to them in either in the independents or the Corbynites. The only option for Labour to be elected now is just to hope people hate the Tories that much they'll be prepared to let them in. If the hard left does kill the Labour party it's membership can't say it wasn't warned. The Tories at least have the majority of their voters and members behind them if they go in the direction of the right - but it should still be a broad church, just not so broad people like Wollaston can remain in it. Another problem for Labour is whatever they think of Umanna, Leslie, Berger etc - they were decent media performers for the party and those sort of politicians are hard to come by these days - replacing them with more Chris Williamson can't be successful. The one they had on Politics Live was unbelievable yesterday, Faz Shaheen or something and when questioned on Derek Hatton she replied "I was a too young then so no idea" in the way you would expect a schoolkid to answer. We've already had Jared O' Mara, Kate Osamor, the one who went to prison whose name escapes me - they clearly aren't vetting candidates properly. Williamson was on Newsnight last night. He's a complete bonehead and I cannot imagine voting for him if he was my local candidate. There are similar morons on the other side, though: Mark François coming on like Corporal Jones, ranting about "Teutonic arrogance" and his father fighting the Germans, Andrew Bridgen claiming all English are entitled to Irish passports... It'll take time for politics and polls to settle down, but when they do I'd expect this Independent Group to do more electoral damage to Labour than to the Tories, as the SDP did in the 80s. But a lot more variables have to come into play yet. Notably, the Brexit outcome and reaction to it, obviously - and who gets the credit or blame for whatever the outcome is. There's also the matter of whether this new Brexit Party, with Farage, gets any traction - or the new UKIP with Tommy Robinson. Support for them will partly depend on what happens with Brexit, obviously. If May gets a great deal and everything works out swimmingly, the Tories will have nothing to fear - and if it's No Deal, they'll have other issues to deal with. There's plenty of scope for discontent among Brexit supporters, though, if she does a compromise they don't like and/or her Brexit deal causes problems in the UK. We haven't heard much of the Brexit Party or UKIP recently, but they could come back into the equation - and would mainly bite the Tories on the arse, electorally, not Labour so much. A lot could change within a few months - in all sorts of directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nalis Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 35 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said: Jesus H Christ. Real life news and the daily mash are getting closer to each other by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban.spaceman Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 4 minutes ago, Nalis said: Real life news and the daily mash are getting closer to each other by the day. Yeah, they’re both equally shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 10 minutes ago, EnderbyFox said: I've learnt to ignore everything Chris Williamson says, he's just as untrustworthy now as he was when he was the Demon Headmaster He's on everything now though so hard to ignore, these public appearances are cleared by the leadership so they appear to be extremely happy with him that he represents them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: But a lot more variables have to come into play yet. Notably, the Brexit outcome and reaction to it, obviously - and who gets the credit or blame for whatever the outcome is. There's also the matter of whether this new Brexit Party, with Farage, gets any traction - or the new UKIP with Tommy Robinson. Support for them will partly depend on what happens with Brexit, obviously. If May gets a great deal and everything works out swimmingly, the Tories will have nothing to fear - and if it's No Deal, they'll have other issues to deal with. There's plenty of scope for discontent among Brexit supporters, though, if she does a compromise they don't like and/or her Brexit deal causes problems in the UK. We haven't heard much of the Brexit Party or UKIP recently, but they could come back into the equation - and would mainly bite the Tories on the arse, electorally, not Labour so much. A lot could change within a few months - in all sorts of directions. Certainly. It's hard to judge where these votes go, we were all left a bit red faced assuming that all those UKIP votes were going to the Tories in 2017 and instead a load of them went across to Labour. I'm not that worried about Tommy Robinson, I'm sure you'll find that naive but he only really has a street movement of a few hundred in reality and about 6% in a yougov poll had a positive view of him - something would have to go seriously wrong with everything for him to manage to get elected by normal folk. I'm right wing, want strict controls on immigration, to leave the EU and think he's right on many things regarding the way our country approaches the politics of Islam - but I'll never vote for him in a million years. Farage on the other hand could be a game changer, he's an extremely effective politician. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 5 minutes ago, MattP said: Certainly. It's hard to judge where these votes go, we were all left a bit red faced assuming that all those UKIP votes were going to the Tories in 2017 and instead a load of them went across to Labour. I'm not that worried about Tommy Robinson, I'm sure you'll find that naive but he only really has a street movement of a few hundred in reality and about 6% in a yougov poll had a positive view of him - something would have to go seriously wrong with everything for him to manage to get elected by normal folk. I'm right wing, want strict controls on immigration, to leave the EU and think he's right on many things regarding the way our country approaches the politics of Islam - but I'll never vote for him in a million years. Farage on the other hand could be a game changer, he's an extremely effective politician. I strongly agree with the two bits that I've put in bold there. I suppose the difference between us on the first one is that I think the chances of something going seriously wrong with everything are much higher than you do. I don't even know whether Robinson wants to get elected, but if a lot goes wrong with Brexit and/or the economy and/or Islamist terrorism and/or migration, then his influence could surge, I reckon, even though he's a minor player so far. Hitler didn't take power because the Germans were genetically or culturally more extremist than the Brits. He took power because things went "seriously wrong with everything" and he "managed to get elected by normal folk". With Farage, it'll depend greatly on what happens with Brexit in the coming weeks/months - and on whether he's still motivated (in interviews, he gives the impression that he's not as fired up as he used to be). Whatever the Brexit outcome, if things go badly or people feel betrayed, he could be a major player again, if he can be bothered - and mainly (not entirely) harmful to the Tories electorally. Interesting times, but not in a good way.....but maybe I'm just getting more risk-averse and small-c conservative as I age? Don't think I am, to be honest - horrible times politically, in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 5 hours ago, ealingfox said: Such is the state of our tabloid culture these days I'm half-tempted to go round all the bookies and see what odds they'll give me on her appearing on a reality tv show within the next 3 years. Private Eye were clearly thinking the same way...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beechey Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 The sheer number of people on Twitter giving abuse to these Labour MPs just crystallises the issue within that party now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 Another Guardian classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beechey Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 3 minutes ago, MattP said: Another Guardian classic. Utterly astonishing that this is a published article. Guardian has outdone themselves with their stupidity this time. Might as well devalue my degrees right now, they're obviously not worth as much as I thought because I'm white. Completely amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 8 minutes ago, Beechey said: Utterly astonishing that this is a published article. Guardian has outdone themselves with their stupidity this time. Might as well devalue my degrees right now, they're obviously not worth as much as I thought because I'm white. Completely amazing. I think Guardian is in such financial difficultly now they have to resort to this sort of click bait - they appear to to be going down the route the Independent has. Not good really as any vibrant democracy needs a competent wide press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlloverthefloorYesNdidi Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said: Private Eye were clearly thinking the same way...... Personally think she would be gold on Im a Celebrity, and wouldnt bs surprised to see her on it next season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wymsey Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 Put her on some talk show with someone like Katie Hopkins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davieG Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 34 minutes ago, AlloverthefloorYesNdidi said: Personally think she would be gold on Im a Celebrity, and wouldnt bs surprised to see her on it next season I'm a Celebrity get me Out of this Syrian Refuge Camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban.spaceman Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 51 minutes ago, MattP said: Another Guardian classic. 46 minutes ago, Beechey said: Utterly astonishing that this is a published article. Guardian has outdone themselves with their stupidity this time. Might as well devalue my degrees right now, they're obviously not worth as much as I thought because I'm white. Completely amazing. 37 minutes ago, MattP said: I think Guardian is in such financial difficultly now they have to resort to this sort of click bait - they appear to to be going down the route the Independent has. Not good really as any vibrant democracy needs a competent wide press. I’ve been saying for a while now that they’re just as bad as the Daily Mail for racial politics. Only the Guardian is far more insidious. ****ing everything is open for a racist interpretations, or misogyny or homophobia. Absolute joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellend Sebastian Posted 20 February 2019 Share Posted 20 February 2019 1 hour ago, MattP said: Another Guardian classic. Matthew, you silly sausage! You forgot to post the link! I know we're all busy, but not to the extent that we can't spare the time to actually read the article before getting indignant. Or have I got that very, very wrong? Anyway: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/feb/20/universities-should-be-punished-for-giving-black-students-lower-grades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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