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[Alf Bentley]

Stephen Bush's analysis of the Julian Smith sacking....

 

"The most consequential decision in terms of government policy may well have already been made: the sacking of Julian Smith as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.  Smith's dismissal is being seen across Westminster as inexplicable because he succeeded where his predecessors failed in negotiating a return to power-sharing in Northern Ireland. Now, the biggest single reason why power-sharing returned was the message that voters in Northern Ireland sent to the DUP and Sinn Féin, by turning away from both parties in part due to the prolonged failure to restore power-sharing. But that Julian Smith established himself as the first Secretary of State for years, and arguably the first since Labour left office, to be respected across Northern Ireland's political firmament and the first since David Cameron left office not to be regarded as a wholly owned subsidiary of the DUP at best or Karen Bradley at worst. The decision however, is not inexplicable: it's a sign of a major policy breach between Downing Street and Smith, and one that has major implications for Northern Ireland and for the next phase of the Brexit talks. One of the ways that Smith paved a way for a restoration of power-sharing was making vital concessions on  prosecutions for members of British armed forces accused of atrocities. It's a cause dear to many Conservative MPs' hearts but it puts the government on a collision course with many in Northern Ireland and the Irish government, regardless of what form of administration emerges from coalition talks. That has two consequences. The first is that I wouldn't be shocked if it means that the return of power-sharing at Stormont proves  to be brief. The second is that it will make the negotiations on the exact shape of the Northern Ireland protocol - which will run concurrently with the next stage of the Brexit talks - more fraught.  The headlines out of this reshuffle will be about the appointments and big beasts. But make no mistake, the sacking of Smith is of far greater importance than anything else Boris Johnson will do today".

[Sol thewall Bamba]

17 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

That ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2035 will not happen for multiple reasons:

 

• The infrastructure we have atm is poor, it will take a lot longer than 15 years in order to sort it all out.
• The price of electric cars, they're sky high vs. older second hand cars, not everyone can afford 10k on a bog standard car.
• The range of the batteries, it's nowhere near enough to suit most people, although this should massively improve over the next 15 years.

If he said 2050 that might make it more realistic, but 15 years is not enough time for us to massively change our motoring world. It takes us about 10 years to decide whether to go ahead with a new airport runway or railway track ffs.

It's not a ban on all petrol and diesel cars, it's a ban of new vehicles using conventional fuels. The second hand market for those vehicles will remain if people can't afford an electric one and when all the new vehicles being sold in the UK are electric, a second hand market emerges very quickly. 

 

In terms of infrastructure, this was a concern of mine but some of the emerging technologies are great. The one that I think will change things a lot are the lamp posts with charging points in them. Would open up a massive amount of residential areas that don't have power in their garages/driveways to charge at home overnight so charging points on motorways etc aren't needed as much. 

 

As you say battery range will increase exponentially over the next 15 years. 250 miles on a charge now isn't unheard of and that's only going to increase. If a good proportion of homes in the UK have access to overnight charging then only people doing ~500 miles a day are going to struggle. 

[Footballwipe]

RE: Electric cars. Can only assume a gadget or gizmo will be invented for a charging device under a car, because how on earth are they going to get the infrastructure in places like the tight, tiny terrace streets of Enderby where street parking is king will be interesting? The range might well increase hugely, but where are these cars supposed to charge?

 

I suspect icing will need to be made a punishable offence, too, as the years roll on. Countless examples of traditional cars blocking charging points in car parks and service stations online. The only way to combat that is a hefty fine.

 

The Top Gear feature on the Porsche with its 20 minute charge time is encouraging, but with just four points in the UK capable of accommodating such a quick charge it's a stark realism into the possibility and the reality.

[Facecloth]

Sajid Javid resigns. Apparently was told he could keep his job as chancellor if he fired all his advisors. He refused and quit.

[bovril]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

So, Toryboys, what's behind the sacking of Julian Smith as N. Ireland Secretary?

 

He's been one of the few ministers to impress me. Got Stormont up and running again. Decent media performer. Comes across as fairly honest & principled for a politician.

 

Is that a factional sacking because he was deemed too closely connected to May & maybe not Cummingsy or Hard Brexity enough?

In Ireland he was respected and had constructive communication.

 

So obviously he had to go. 

[Guest MattP]

20 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Sajid Javid resigns. Apparently was told he could keep his job as chancellor if he fired all his advisors. He refused and quit.

Was in the ST before Christmas they wanted rid of him, delighted for Rishi Sunak though, one of my favourite Tories.

 

I'm absolutely baffled at the departure of Julian Smith, he seems to have done an incredible job of reaching out to everybody across the Irish sea to get the government back up and running, effectively managed to avoid direct rule.

[Carl the Llama]

Looks like Boris has learned lessons from across the pond on the usefulness of being surrounded by acquiescent stooges.

[hackneyfox]

Dominic Cummings behind all of this.

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

Looks like Boris has learned lessons from across the pond on the usefulness of being surrounded by acquiescent stooges.

Doesn't really work here though does it? 

 

If anything in the UK you need a lot of your political opponents near you so they bound by collective responsibility. If they are on the backbenches they are free to rebel.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if the ones being booted are the ones they think are leaking.

[Carl the Llama]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Doesn't really work here though does it? 

 

If anything in the UK you need a lot of your political opponents near you so they bound by collective responsibility. If they are on the backbenches they are free to rebel.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if the ones being booted are the ones they think are leaking.

Doesn't it?  You've been claiming Corbyn and Momentum have been up to it for years but now the Tories are clearly in on the game it's not a thing that happens in UK politics?

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Carl the Llama said:

Doesn't it?  You've been claiming Corbyn and Momentum have been up to it for years but now the Tories are clearly in on the game it's not a thing that happens in UK politics?

Corbyn and Momentum aren't in government with a need to pass legislation so I don't get the comparison here.

[Carl the Llama]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Corbyn and Momentum aren't in government with a need to pass legislation so I don't get the comparison here.

Of course you don't, that would require the capacity to be genuinely critical of right wing politicians.

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

So, Toryboys, what's behind the sacking of Julian Smith as N. Ireland Secretary?

 

He's been one of the few ministers to impress me. Got Stormont up and running again. Decent media performer. Comes across as fairly honest & principled for a politician.

 

Is that a factional sacking because he was deemed too closely connected to May & maybe not Cummingsy or Hard Brexity enough?

Say no mowah!

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Say no mowah!

 

Some pointedly generous tributes, expressions of dismay and worrying analyses of Smith's dismissal: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/13/irish-pm-says-sacked-northern-ireland-secretary-julian-smith-one-of-britains-finest

 

Dublin, the SDLP & Alliance seem alarmed - yet Arlene Foster doesn't seem to have had a major problem with him. He might be a "bone" thrown to the Hard Right / Hard Brexit / English Nationalist wing of the Tory Party, if they didn't like him making concessions to the Irish Nationalist side, even if that was part of a fairly balanced package, it seemed, and one that got devolved govt working again....

 

Alternatively, I suppose it could just be petty spite for him taking views at variance with No. 10 - Penny Mordaunt & Jeremy Hunt were among those dumped last year apparently based on such spite, despite having good reputations....

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Some pointedly generous tributes, expressions of dismay and worrying analyses of Smith's dismissal: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/13/irish-pm-says-sacked-northern-ireland-secretary-julian-smith-one-of-britains-finest

 

Dublin, the SDLP & Alliance seem alarmed - yet Arlene Foster doesn't seem to have had a major problem with him. He might be a "bone" thrown to the Hard Right / Hard Brexit / English Nationalist wing of the Tory Party, if they didn't like him making concessions to the Irish Nationalist side, even if that was part of a fairly balanced package, it seemed, and one that got devolved govt working again....

 

Alternatively, I suppose it could just be petty spite for him taking views at variance with No. 10 - Penny Mordaunt & Jeremy Hunt were among those dumped last year apparently based on such spite, despite having good reputations....

Is it normal for the Taioseach to comment on cabinet reshuffles? Kind of shows how weak GB looks at the moment after Brexit. 

[Alf Bentley]

17 minutes ago, bovril said:

Is it normal for the Taioseach to comment on cabinet reshuffles? Kind of shows how weak GB looks at the moment after Brexit. 

 

I wouldn't have thought so. At least not beyond something formal and bland, welcoming a new appointee or whatever. To offer such a lavishly generous tribute to the person sacked seems very pointed.

 

Of course, it's up to the UK to appoint its ministers, not Ireland or any other country. But it seems like a coded expression of concern, if not alarm - at a time of great sensitivity with Brexit negotiations pending (including crucial stuff on GB/NI/UK/RoI relations), Stormont power-sharing just restored, Irish politics in turmoil etc.

 

His comment being phrased as a compliment to Smith probably means it's not open to objection - but it's really a masked comment on UK internal politics. As you say, that never used to happen in the past, as I recall, though Varadkar has made other pointed comments recently about the strength of the EU in the pending negotiations.....which he'd have hardly done unless he felt absolutely confident that the EU would have Ireland's back in negotiations.

 

Edited 13 February 2020 by Alf Bentley

[Guest MattP]

3 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Of course you don't, that would require the capacity to be genuinely critical of right wing politicians.

What on earth are you going on about?

 

16 minutes ago, bovril said:

Is it normal for the Taioseach to comment on cabinet reshuffles? Kind of shows how weak GB looks at the moment after Brexit. 

Or maybe how weak Leo is? Can say what he wants now he's TINO.

[bovril]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

What on earth are you going on about?

 

Or maybe how weak Leo is? Can say what he wants now he's TINO.

As Bentley says he's made a few comments in the past about Brexit, Johnson, Britain's position in the World and the negotiations.

 

Bloody Irish used to know their place. 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, bovril said:

As Bentley says he's made a few comments in the past about Brexit, Johnson, Britain's position in the World and the negotiations.

 

Bloody Irish used to know their place. 

He was obviously going to speak up for the EU side during the Brexit debate and talk tough going into an election campaign. 

 

He's a irrelevance now though as the Irish people have removed him.

 

All likelihood now we are dealing with Michael Martin during the next stage, or Mary Lou in a bizarre coalition. Either way his opinion means nothing anymore.

[Realjimbo]

4 hours ago, hackneyfox said:

Dominic Cummings behind all of this.

Completely disagree, Cummins isn't behind this, he's front and centre of this.

This unelected megalomaniac is effectively running the country via his idiot puppet Johnson--what does this say about our "democracy"!

And now we have a Chancellor with virtually zero experience who will no doubt be "advised" by guess who...

I've never seen such a dire bunch of nobodies as this present crop (on every side) right at the time our country faces challenges beyond anything since the 1940's.

Cameron made the most basic error when he called his catastrophic referendum - never ask a question you don't beyond doubt know the answer to.

 

Those who live in Churchills fictional golden age are I fear in for a very rude awakening especially with Prime minister Cummins at the helm.

[Kopfkino]

5 hours ago, MattP said:

Was in the ST before Christmas they wanted rid of him, delighted for Rishi Sunak though, one of my favourite Tories.

 

I'm absolutely baffled at the departure of Julian Smith, he seems to have done an incredible job of reaching out to everybody across the Irish sea to get the government back up and running, effectively managed to avoid direct rule.

Rishi Sunak is great but Rishi Sunak won't allowed to be Rishi Sunak cos megalomaniac **** Cummings thinks everyone should be Parker from Thunderbirds

[Finnaldo]

23 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Rishi Sunak is great but Rishi Sunak won't allowed to be Rishi Sunak cos megalomaniac **** Cummings thinks everyone should be Parker from Thunderbirds

I read similar on BBC earlier. Sunak isn’t a particularly experienced MP, yet alone to be head honcho for the Country’s economic stance, it’s likely that No.10 will have greater influence now over the Budget.

 

It really makes you wonder just how much power Cummings wields, he clearly has his reign on the Conservative Party, but how much control does he have over Boris? Even though I’ve always been staunchly anti-Cummings you’d hope Boris would have a leash on him, but maybe it’s the other way round...

 

Mildly concerning really.

[Legend_in_blue]

Sunak has never come across as being particularly bright to me.  He's on a par with Hancock imo.

[StanSP]

Embarrassing 

 

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Sunak has never come across as being particularly bright to me.  He's on a par with Hancock imo.

He got a first in politics, philosophy and economics at Cambridge and followed it up with a masters from Stanford.

 

If he fails it won't be due to not being particularly bright.