Brexit!

[The Guvnor]

2 hours ago, Donk said:

Is no deal and everything that could bring more credible? The no deal that is simultaneously a negotiating strategy and something that we want to blame the EU for making us accept? The no deal that is simultaneously the worst case scenario and base scenario all in one depending on who is ordered to re write the yellow hammer report headings? the no deal that is so bad itll be so damaging for both sides both must absolutely work to avoid it, yet so insignificant all the consequences are project fear? (a silly term anyway)

 

Or is it the mythical deal that is definitely out there, but no one can ever negotiate, but every leaver knows what it is telepathically, despite never being asked of its details or have provided any details of, and there is always someone who could deliver it but that person is somehow never in power and never will be?

 

We already have the best possible deal. Certainly the best available deal NOW. Can it be improved? possibly. Can we help shape its future? absolutely.

 

Case closed. No further discussions necessary.

 

 

Well whether it's more credible should be up to the leave voters to decide in any referendum not the Labour Party, and when posters talk about leavers being terrified of a second referendum, not at all, but it cannot be a stitch up which is what Corbyn is describing. If we are going down the second referendum road there needs to be another extension giving enough time for grown up negotiations, the options then being a binary choice, the renegotiated deal which would need to be outside of the CU and SM and a no deal clean break, it is the only option which wouldn't be a total betrayal to the 17.4 million, and let me ask you this question would the EU be more motivated to offer a deal ,which may be as simple as compromising on the back stop, if the alternative on the second vote was Brino or a clean break Brexit.

 

[BlueSi13]

Lots of excitment today but in practical terms changes very little at this stage.  

 

Boris seemingly going nowhere and still insistent we are leaving on the 31st:

 

 

 

 

[BlueSi13]

3 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

Well whether it's more credible should be up to the leave voters to decide in any referendum not the Labour Party, and when posters talk about leavers being terrified of a second referendum, not at all, but it cannot be a stitch up which is what Corbyn is describing. If we are going down the second referendum road there needs to be another extension giving enough time for grown up negotiations, the options then being a binary choice, the renegotiated deal which would need to be outside of the CU and SM and a no deal clean break, it is the only option which wouldn't be a total betrayal to the 17.4 million, and let me ask you this question would the EU be more motivated to offer a deal ,which may be as simple as compromising on the back stop, if the alternative on the second vote was Brino or a clean break Brexit.

 

Strong rumours that Labour will also push for EU citizens to be allowed to vote in a 2nd referendum to remove any threat of us even voting for BRINO or BRemain.  

 

If we don't come out on the 31st we are going to a very VERY dark place.

[Donk]

2 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Lots of excitment today but in practical terms changes very little at this stage.  

 

Boris seemingly going nowhere and still insistent we are leaving on the 31st:

 

 

 

 

The practical terms are whoever votes conservative are more than happy to be led by a careerist serial liar who misled the queen, just so they can "win" brexit which they cant describe anyway because it could be any form of brexit. We still dont know.

 

The 2nd referendum is whats needed where all confirmed plans are on the table and then one obtains a majority.

 

Elections are fought on more than one issue. A 2nd referendum wouldnt be.

 

Said it a million times. Bored of saying it. Youre scared of the 2nd referendum, youd lose it, youre clinging on to an out of date mandate based on outright untruths, willful ignorance and empty rhetoric and youre happy to put your trust in a liar to "deliver" something to you with no benefits.

 

 

[The Guvnor]

2 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Lots of excitment today but in practical terms changes very little at this stage.  

 

Boris seemingly going nowhere and still insistent we are leaving on the 31st:

 

 

 

 

At this stage perhaps, but recall to Parliament will see a pack of wolves that have tasted blood, Bercow will be determined to explore every avenue to accomodate a new bill which will allow someone other than the PM, maybe a senior civil servant, to request the Extension which as we know could be another 12 months. Nothing can be ruled out now that the tails are wagging the dog.

[The Guvnor]

3 minutes ago, Donk said:

The practical terms are whoever votes conservative are more than happy to be led by a careerist serial liar who misled the queen, just so they can "win" brexit which they cant describe anyway because it could be any form of brexit. We still dont know.

 

The 2nd referendum is whats needed where all confirmed plans are on the table and then one obtains a majority.

 

Elections are fought on more than one issue. A 2nd referendum wouldnt be.

 

Said it a million times. Bored of saying it. Youre scared of the 2nd referendum, youd lose it, youre clinging on to an out of date mandate based on outright untruths, willful ignorance and empty rhetoric and youre happy to put your trust in a liar to "deliver" something to you with no benefits.

 

 

The best way for a mandate on Brexit is not a stitch up referendum its a General Election and that's been said a million times and everyone is bored of saying that.

[Donk]

5 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Strong rumours that Labour will also push for EU citizens to be allowed to vote in a 2nd referendum to remove any threat of us even voting for BRINO or BRemain.  

 

If we don't come out on the 31st we are going to a very VERY dark place.

Full steam ahead the dark place then.

 

The sector i work in was described as facing big challenges in the yellow hammer document.

 

Im not saying those changes would be removed totally, but the chances of losing my job would certainly be minimised and ill happily carry on my life eating nice food with the level of choice we have now, without the possibility of oil shortage.

 

I live a simple life. Brexit doesnt benefit me in any way. Id love to keep it that way.

 

 

[BlueSi13]

2 minutes ago, Donk said:

The practical terms are whoever votes conservative are more than happy to be led by a careerist serial liar who misled the queen, just so they can "win" brexit which they cant describe anyway because it could be any form of brexit. We still dont know.

 

The 2nd referendum is whats needed where all confirmed plans are on the table and then one obtains a majority.

 

Elections are fought on more than one issue. A 2nd referendum wouldnt be.

 

Said it a million times. Bored of saying it. Youre scared of the 2nd referendum, youd lose it, youre clinging on to an out of date mandate based on outright untruths, willful ignorance and empty rhetoric and youre happy to put your trust in a liar to "deliver" something to you with no benefits.

 

 

You don't know because you've had your fingers in the your ears for three years pretending it isn't happening.  We voted to restore full sovereign control over our laws, trade and borders and to walk away from Emperor Guy's new age of Empires.

 

Did you know that in the last 13 polls a week prior to the referendum, remain was comfortably ahead in 10 of them?  John Curtice has made it clear that there hasn't been a significant shift in public opinion.  Current General Election polling also doesn't suggest a strong shift in the polls.  Your confidence may be a tad misplaced.

 

But may I ask what version of remain would be on the ballot paper?  What do we do about Schengen?  The Euro?  Further transferring of powers to Brussels?  An EU army?

 

Also, why would any leave voter take part in a 2nd referendum when already had senior MP's state they wouldn't respect a 2nd leave vote?  Why would any leave voter expect a 2nd leave vote to be respected after such RELENTESS resistance to the first after 3 years?

[BlueSi13]

7 minutes ago, Donk said:

Full steam ahead the dark place then.

 

The sector i work in was described as facing big challenges in the yellow hammer document.

 

Im not saying those changes would be removed totally, but the chances of losing my job would certainly be minimised and ill happily carry on my life eating nice food with the level of choice we have now, without the possibility of oil shortage.

 

I live a simple life. Brexit doesnt benefit me in any way. Id love to keep it that way.

 

 

And you say the Brexiteers are extreme.  Be careful of what you wish for.

[BlueSi13]

15 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

At this stage perhaps, but recall to Parliament will see a pack of wolves that have tasted blood, Bercow will be determined to explore every avenue to accomodate a new bill which will allow someone other than the PM, maybe a senior civil servant, to request the Extension which as we know could be another 12 months. Nothing can be ruled out now that the tails are wagging the dog.

It's going to be fascinating but my understanding is that the PM can still prorogue again or he could deny Royal Assent to any future bills.  Coming out that the PM is now looking at alternative methods to get a Queen's speech.  

[bovril]

Personally I think allowing EU citizens to finally have a say on whether or not they lose their current rights is anything but 'dark'. 

[Wolfox]

 

[Dames]

As long as the Queen doesn’t kick off and doesn’t apply pressure for a resignation then this will all play very nicely into Johnsons hands. He has managed to paint himself as the man of the people and no matter what he does lawful or not, those that oppose him or hold different views are the enemies of democracy and Boris is its Champion.

 

Buckingham Palace has been very quiet today and I imagine they are weighing up their response very carefully, the future of the country potentially hinges on it. 

 

 

[The People's Hero]

Yeah but will we still be able to play EuroMillions?

[Heathrow fox]

1 hour ago, bovril said:

Personally I think allowing EU citizens to finally have a say on whether or not they lose their current rights is anything but 'dark'. 

Stupid idea.If remain won with a 4 million majority, it would be blamed squarely on “them foreigners”With some justification.If anything is going to make things worse it’s that.

[bovril]

Just now, Heathrow fox said:

Stupid idea.If remain won with a 4 million majority, it would be blamed squarely on “them foreigners”With some justification.If anything is going to make things worse it’s that.

We should disenfranchise people to protect them from abuse? Presumably that extends to old people at the next General Election, so the younger generation don't write mean things about them on twitter. 

[HappyHamza]

2 hours ago, The Guvnor said:

The best way for a mandate on Brexit is not a stitch up referendum its a General Election and that's been said a million times and everyone is bored of saying that.

This is clearly not true. 

You say this because you want brexit and think the remain vote will be split more than the leave vote in a GE.

Leave won the referendum but the leave now being offered is not the same as the leave being offered then.  

That might not make a difference to the majority of leavers but it is likely to make a difference to some of the floating voters that chose leave based on the Norway model pushed by farage at the time.

We need a final say. If it's leave then it's leave.  A GE muddies the water. 

It needs to be a clear brexit only decision. 

Alternative vote system.

No deal vs deal vs remain

One gets knocked out first round (probably deal at this point) and we end up with no deal vs remain. 

Surely that would be the absolute fairest mechanism?

 

Edited 24 September 2019 by HappyHamza

[HappyHamza]

25 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said:

Stupid idea.If remain won with a 4 million majority, it would be blamed squarely on “them foreigners”With some justification.If anything is going to make things worse it’s that.

I wouldn't have a problem with us extending votes to full resident immigrants AFTER brexit is dealt with. 

Although I'm a remainer I can't see how you could bring this in before we've dealt with this issue. 

What I do think is that 16 year olds - who can work, pay tax and join the army - should absolutely have a vote. 

Edited 24 September 2019 by HappyHamza

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

 

Ignoring Hard/Clean/WTO Brexit, let's go back to the 2017 General Election and look at the Brexit manifesto promises those MP's made to their constituencies when they won their seats:

 

Conservative manifesto - Leave the European Union - Hard-leave with a deal but prepared to leave without one

Labour manifesto - Leave the European Union - Soft-leave with a deal most likely involving staying in the single market and customs union but ending free movement.

Liberal Democrat manifesto - 2nd referendum.

 

Let's have a look where we are now:

 

Conservatives - Leave the European Union - Leave with a deal but prepared to leave without one

Labour - 2nd referendum - Rigged with a BRINO vs Remain option.

Liberal Democrats - Revoke and cancel.

 

That isn't anywhere close to being representative of where we were in 2017.  Only the Conservatives have remained consistent but have been subsequently undermined by the now ousted rebels.

 

The country has never been in greater need of a General Election.  But we all know why the opposition won't grant one..

 

 

You're right about the LD shift (which I oppose) - and that Labour has shifted to support a 2nd referendum.

 

You omit to mention that Labour's 2017 referendum explicitly committed them to oppose No Deal, which they are doing.

Also, Labour spent 2 years seeking that "soft leave with a deal", including voting for various soft leave options during the "indicative votes" & taking part in weeks of talks with May.

The "soft leave with a deal" options were voted down en masse by Tories/DUP & talks with May were unsuccessful....so they sought another solution via a referendum. Should they have kept their 2017 stance forever, despite public frustration?

A solution needs to be found that most people can live with. I'm no fan of Corbyn, but he's taken a lot of flak for not going more Remainer to suit most of his membership/MPs/voters.

 

I think it could be worth the risk of including No Deal as 1 of 3 referendum options (Deal/No Deal/Remain), each needing 50% to win. But I understand why Labour don't want to offer an option they think would be disastrous (I agree) for which they could then be blamed......and I don't notice the Tories offering any compromise to break the logjam.

 

"Leave with a deal but prepared to leave without one" is a fair summary of May, but certainly not of Johnson. He might say that, but his actions disprove his words. He has prioritised No Deal.

He has made demands he knows will be unacceptable (ditch backstop) but made no realistic alternative proposals. He has repeatedly announced great progress when no meaningful meetings are happening.

He has thrown 21 MPs out for opposing No Deal. He has lost a minister (Rudd) who resigned because he was focusing almost exclusively on No Deal. He has repeatedly refused to request an extension if he fails to get a deal - and he has unlawfully suspended democracy to avoid scrutiny of his plans. That's strong evidence of a No Deal focus.....and, if he was seeking a deal and just using No Deal as a threat, wouldn't he have at least submitted proposals to negotiations?

 

I'd gladly bet you £10 that we get an election by December, supported by the opposition. You correctly identify one reason why Labour wants to delay it until after 31/10: electoral tactics.

 

You don't identify the other reason: a genuine concern that Boris would use an election to (legitimately) shut down parliament for 4-5 weeks campaigning and allow us to drift into No Deal with no scrutiny.

This is a genuine concern, as Boris has already unlawfully shut down parliament & repeatedly said that he will not request an extension, despite being ordered to do so by parliament. Cummings even "joked" about using this ruse.

 

Yes, Labour's inclination to delay until after 31st Oct is partly tactics - but so is Boris' desire to have an election before 31st Oct. So far, Corbyn has had the votes to get his way & Boris hasn't, after losing his majority & throwing out his rebels.

- Boris wants an election before 31st October as that's his best chance of a majority: he can run a divisive "people v. parliament" campaign, promising to leave by 31st Oct, by No Deal if necessary & hoovering up Brexit Party votes while the opposition parties are divided, potentially giving him 5 years of untrammeled power with 30-35% of the vote under FPTP....making No Deal a self-fulfilling prophecy if he wants it.

- Labour knows that delaying till after 31st Oct takes No Deal out of the equation short-term, reduces the credibility of Boris' Brexit promises, reduces the chance of him hoovering up Brexit Party votes, increases the chance of divisions with Farage helping the opposition to win etc. 

 

Why should Labour adopt tactics (immediate election) to suit Boris? The SNP might break ranks to do so, as they potentially stand to take almost every seat in Scotland. Actually, Corbyn is naive, arrogant & stupid enough to fall into the Tory trap....fortunately, it seems those around him like Starmer & McDonnell have a bit more sense. Mind you, Labour was further behind in the polls in 2017 and supported May's election....

 

(Deleted your polls to save space - they do make the tactical point, but ignore the genuine concern about No Deal being brought in by devious means)

 

Btw. Could be a weird election when it does happen - Tories (or Brexit Party) winning Labour Leave seats, LDs winning prosperous Tory seats, SNP tartanwash in Scotland & a load of weird, unintended results in 3-way seats?

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, HappyHamza said:

This is clearly not true. 

You say this because you want brexit and think the remain vote will be split more than the leave vote in a GE.

Leave won the referendum but the leave now being offered is not the same as the leave being offered then.  

That might not make a difference to the majority of leavers but it is likely to make a difference to some of the floating voters that chose leave based on the Norway model pushed by farage at the time.

We need a final say. If it's leave then it's leave.  A GE muddies the water. 

It needs to be a clear brexit only decision. 

Alternative vote system.

No deal vs deal vs remain

One gets knocked out first round (probably deal at this point) and we end up with no deal vs remain. 

Surely that would be the absolute fairest mechanism?

 

Exactly this.

 

Surely with this format no one would have the right to complain. Proper, deliverable alternatives presented and let the people decide based on all the facts. If turkeys decide to vote for Christmas, well at least know what’s in the stuffing.

[WigstonWanderer]

Surely if Johnson tries to prorogue Parliament again over the 31st Oct deadline it would be immediately struck down by the courts now that they have a precedent to follow?

[ozleicester]

Imagine if Corbyn had been guilty of a subversion of democracy

 

[Wolfox]

 

[Voll Blau]

15 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

You don't know because you've had your fingers in the your ears for three years pretending it isn't happening.  We voted to restore full sovereign control over our laws, trade and borders and to walk away from Emperor Guy's new age of Empires.

 

Did you know that in the last 13 polls a week prior to the referendum, remain was comfortably ahead in 10 of them?  John Curtice has made it clear that there hasn't been a significant shift in public opinion.  Current General Election polling also doesn't suggest a strong shift in the polls.  Your confidence may be a tad misplaced.

 

But may I ask what version of remain would be on the ballot paper?  What do we do about Schengen?  The Euro?  Further transferring of powers to Brussels?  An EU army?

 

Also, why would any leave voter take part in a 2nd referendum when already had senior MP's state they wouldn't respect a 2nd leave vote?  Why would any leave voter expect a 2nd leave vote to be respected after such RELENTESS resistance to the first after 3 years?

What do we do about Schengen?

 

We don't join it, as we're under no obligation to do so

 

The Euro?

 

We don't join it, as we're under no obligation to do so.

 

Further transferring of power to Brussels?

 

Like what? Which powers? Where's the evidence this will happen?

 

An EU Army?

 

Again, some evidence that this is definitely going to go ahead rather than pure whataboutery based on, presumably, one or two comments from a *tiny proportion* of people involved in the EU would be useful in allowing people to make an informed decision.

 

In the meantime EU = status quo, which looks pretty good to me compared to whatever we actually end up doing by leaving. So I'll go for that, ta.  The EU is by no means a perfect organisation, but this process has taught me the benefits of being part of it vastly outweigh the negatives.

Edited 25 September 2019 by Voll Blau

[Finnaldo]

3 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

What do we do about Schengen?

 

We don't join it, as we're under no obligation to do so

 

The Euro?

 

We don't join it, as we're under no obligation to do so.

 

Further transferring of power to Brussels?

 

Like what? Which powers? Where's the evidence this will happen?

 

An EU Army?

 

Again, some evidence that is is definitely going to go ahead rather than pure whataboutery based on, presumably, one or two comments from a *tiny proportion* of people involved in the EU would be useful in allowing people to make an informed decision.

 

In the meantime EU = status quo, which looks pretty good to me compared to whatever we actually end up doing by leaving. So I'll go for that, ta.  The EU is by no means a perfect organisation, but this process has taught me the benefits of being part of it vastly outweigh the negatives.

 

We could always create a proper plan for any future Brexit and have that ready for if we're 'forced' into actually doing any of this.

 

I doubt we will though.