FT General Election Poll 2019

[Strokes]

30 minutes ago, MattP said:

We are living in a seriously crazy time, if polls are correct people are going to lose their minds.

[Alf Bentley]

46 minutes ago, MattP said:

We are living in a seriously crazy time, if polls are correct people are going to lose their minds.

 

I think some people will lose their minds whatever the outcome - just different groups of people depending on whether polls are right or wrong.

 

Mayhem, as you suggest, if there's a Boris majority. Mainly on Twitter & Facebook, I presume (glad I'm not on Twitter & will be able to ignore the odd idiot on Facebook). But I imagine there'll be a few crazy real-life protests, too....and a lot more when it comes to 31st January and we formally leave the EU, before starting on the long grind of the main part of Brexit, namely working out the nation's future. I expect public weeping, hymn-singing and the odd riot on 31st January.... I mean, as you know, I'll have massive concerns about where we're heading if Boris does win, but let's keep a bit of British stiff upper lip or sophisticated European decorum here! 

 

But I can imagine the Brexiteers losing their minds, too, if the polls are wrong & we end up with Corbyn strolling up Downing Street, then applying for a further Brexit extension & announcing plans for a 2nd referendum. The boneheads will be out in force then, with Yaxley-Lennon sticking his oar in and the odd headcase trying to torch a mosque in protest against the Brussels dictatorship or whatever...

 

Then there's the chance that Boris might be just narrowly short of a majority, leaving Remainers jubilant that Brexit is dead.....only to find that he cobbles up some compromise with Labour Leave MPs or the DUP so that either Brexit proceeds with amendments or there's another extension to negotiate such amendments....

 

Then there's the prospects for 2020. A referendum if the polls are wrong. But, if the polls are right, a gradual realisation that, for all sorts of reasons, life will be somewhere between the same and worse for most people once "Brexit is done" on 31st Jan. After 31st Jan, I presume Brexit hysteria would go quiet for a few months, but some people will start to wonder why nothing's changed for the better. Then, 1st July is the deadline for requesting an extension to the transition period, I think? Presumably a Boris majority govt wouldn't request an extension, so we'd be heading towards more desperate negotiations and a No Deal cliff-edge at the end of the year?

 

The only thing we can be certain about is that there's going to be mayhem, followed by more mayhem.....before we move on to the serious mayhem. Perhaps we need to reappoint Theresa Mayhem as PM?  

[Foxin_Mad]

If Comrade Jezbollah gets in I will definitely loose my mind, and most likely my livelihood and my home. As if he pushes through his manifesto my business has 18 months tops. 

 

Still, Hopefully I can benefit from some of the free money and stuff he promises and I wont have to do anymore work. Quite frankly there is no point if he enacts his manifesto; I may as well just wait for the free money package to arrive.

 

 

[The Fox Covert]

[twoleftfeet]

this is a sad fact that if the Tories win that universities across the nation will offer support to thier students. This happened at the uni i was attending after the brexit referendum.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

Survation, the polling company 'the left' love and trust more than any other (apparently)

 

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

6 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Survation, the polling company 'the left' love and trust more than any other (apparently)

 

 

Survation were 1.4% off for the Conservative vote in 2017 (they predicted 41% as opposed to 42.4%) and they were spot on for Labour (41%). Clearly it could have been a fluke but the gap doesn't seem to be closing at all. Britain Elects' aggregator has the Tories up 0.4% and Labour down 0.1% on average. 

 

Obviously the only poll that matters is on Thursday. 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

Tories now a shorter price with the bookies for a majority this election than they were for the last one.

 

May was 1/3 on the night, Boris is as short as 1/5.

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Tories now a shorter price with the bookies for a majority this election than they were for the last one.

 

May was 1/3 on the night, Boris is as short as 1/5.

 

A hung parliament isn't 5000-1 yet, is it? 

 

Just checked......

Best odds: Hung Parliament 4-1; LCFC to win PL 16-1; Labour to win majority 33-1 

[leicsmac]

It's looking a lot like a Tory majority of about 15-20 if the pollsters and bookies have it right...which with a few notable exceptions, they usually do.

 

Is it purely a desire to see an end to the Brexit saga and dislike of Corbyn that has led more folks in critical areas there, do people think? Or are there other factors that people believe more significant?

[Sol thewall Bamba]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's looking a lot like a Tory majority of about 15-20 if the pollsters and bookies have it right...which with a few notable exceptions, they usually do.

 

Is it purely a desire to see an end to the Brexit saga and dislike of Corbyn that has led more folks in critical areas there, do people think? Or are there other factors that people believe more significant?

It's purely Brexit imo, people are sick to the back teeth of it no matter which way they voted in the referendum in my experience. 

Edited 9 December 2019 by Sol thewall Bamba

[David Guiza]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's looking a lot like a Tory majority of about 15-20 if the pollsters and bookies have it right...which with a few notable exceptions, they usually do.

 

Is it purely a desire to see an end to the Brexit saga and dislike of Corbyn that has led more folks in critical areas there, do people think? Or are there other factors that people believe more significant?

As above, Brexit is a massive issue and I think the fact that there aren't many competing parties to split the Tory vote assists them to a large degree.

 

Many Labour voters, or possible Labour voters, could seemingly vote Lib Dems, Greens, SNP etc depending on where they live. Whereas the majority of Tory voters, or potential Tory voters, are realistically looking at just the Tories, or the Brexit Party depending on where they are. There's no real UKIP etc to split the vote in any fashion. The only other alternative are the remain Tory voters lending their vote to Lib Dems.

 

To be quite honest I'm just finding it all really disheartening, I am fully aware of the flaws of both Corbyn and Labour but they still resonate with me a million times more than Johnson and the Tories do and the fact that the only way it's ever going to change is if they monumentally f it up which, of course, I wouldn't advocate because it's just spiteful. My dream scenario wouldn't even be a Labour majority, it would be a coalition, and that says it all. 

 

I'm seriously dreading Friday morning and the years that follow. Maybe I'll move to Finland . 

[Guest MattP]

19 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's looking a lot like a Tory majority of about 15-20 if the pollsters and bookies have it right...which with a few notable exceptions, they usually do.

 

Is it purely a desire to see an end to the Brexit saga and dislike of Corbyn that has led more folks in critical areas there, do people think? Or are there other factors that people believe more significant?

Bookied odds reflect a Tory majority of about 60-70 at the minute.Whatever happens though surely the Labour party has to look at the direction it is going now? this is the second election on the bounce where there is no chance of them winning a majority and they are just looking to scrape enough seats to be the leaders of a coalition, making the manifesto they stand on pointless anyway.

 

Only the young, BAME and public sector workers are voting for them in great numbers, barely anyone else is.

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, MattP said:

Bookied odds reflect a Tory majority of about 60-70 at the minute.Whatever happens though surely the Labour party has to look at the direction it is going now? this is the second election on the bounce where there is no chance of them winning a majority and they are just looking to scrape enough seats to be the leaders of a coalition, making the manifesto they stand on pointless anyway.

 

Only the young, BAME and public sector workers are voting for them in great numbers, barely anyone else is.

That all may or may not be on the spot, but the answer I'm looking for is the significant reasons *why*, really...especially if the gap will be as big as 60-70.

 

NB. Poll of all polls has Tory majority 20 last time I checked, is there that much distance between pollsters and bookies projections?

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's looking a lot like a Tory majority of about 15-20 if the pollsters and bookies have it right...which with a few notable exceptions, they usually do.

 

Is it purely a desire to see an end to the Brexit saga and dislike of Corbyn that has led more folks in critical areas there, do people think? Or are there other factors that people believe more significant?

 

If the pollsters & bookies are right, a bigger Tory majority than that looks likely.....unless there's a big impact from tactical voting, differential turnout, late swing or whatever.

 

My impression is that it is largely Brexit + Corbyn....but that begs the question "why?" on both points.

 

I'd say that the Tory "get Brexit done" slogan seems to have succeeded. For a sizeable chunk of voters, particularly in Labour Leave seats, that means implementing their 2016 instruction to "take back control". If Brexit proceeds, we'll have to see whether they feel that Brexit has allowed them to "take back control" - and whether "Brexit is done" if negotiations and/or adverse consequence continue for years. Others attracted by the "get Brexit done" slogan don't have a strong view on the issue but are just sick of hearing about it and of it seemingly preventing anything else getting done. Others again supported Remain, but accept they lost the democratic vote so think Brexit should happen, often not seeing that going down Boris' Brexit path is a massive decision that could have seriously adverse consequences for years or decades to come (yes, I know that's not certain & I know it sounds patronising, but it's what I believe so....tough! ).

 

The reasons for Corbyn's unpopularity are a bit less clear-cut to me. There are no shortage of reasons: reported extremism, lack of credibility of spending plans, "southern elite" profile, unpopularity of right-on lefty thinking, reported anti-semitism in party. Yet many of those causes for unpopularity also apply to Johnson: Tory policies lack credibility (tax/spend arguably a bit less than Labour's, "getting Brexit done" arguably a bit more), even more "southern elite" than Corbyn, plenty of out-of-touch thinking & race issues with him and Tories, too. Of course, Johnson isn't massively popular either, but more voters seem to find him "a natural leader" or entertaining - or are prepared to overlook his perceived flaws & those of his party than are prepared to overlook flaws in Corbyn/Labour. Is that because he'll "get Brexit done" or because the perceived consequences of his policies arouse less fear than Corbyn's? Both? DK....

 

If I'm remotely close to being right about where a Boris Brexit & 5 years of Tory majority govt leads, I expect the Tories to be massively unpopular within a couple of years - to the extent of potentially threatening the future existence of the party. But that's little consolation if we all have to face the real-life consequences of that.....and Labour & other opposition parties will have to look at themselves and ask what responsibility they have for that happening.

 

Postscript (1): Even by historic standards, it looks as if we'll have a massive voting disparity between young Lab/LD voters and older Tory voters. But, it also seems that there's a big gender divide. I just read that the Survation poll above has the Tories 27% ahead among men but Tories & Labour level among women. Both those extraordinary disparities should raise massive questions....

 

Postscript (2): Get yourself over to the "Fun-Packed Election Poll" thread at some point in the next 2-3 days, Mac.....you know it makes sense! 

[Alf Bentley]

A quickie (for once)....

 

Most polls suggest that 50-55% will vote for parties advocating a 2nd referendum (Lab + LD + Green + SNP + Plaid etc.).

 

Just thought I'd mention it before Boris barrels in with his "mandate" to "get Brexit done" Boris-style.

After all, we heard a lot about 90% voting for parties promising to honour the referendum result after 2017..... 

[Kopfkino]

49 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's looking a lot like a Tory majority of about 15-20 if the pollsters and bookies have it right...which with a few notable exceptions, they usually do.

 

Is it purely a desire to see an end to the Brexit saga and dislike of Corbyn that has led more folks in critical areas there, do people think? Or are there other factors that people believe more significant?

Corbyn is well and truly despised in the kind of areas the Conservatives are targeting. 

 

I was fortunate enough to be able to help run some focus groups at the back end of last year and early this year and the strength of feeling against him was incredible (I wish I'd asked opinions on Thatcher to compare them). Theresa May wasnt necessarily popular as a politician but there were often some warm words, or at least not scathing words, used about her. Boris never came up cos he was out of the picture at that time but I can imagine what the reaction to him is. For a lot of people his bad points will just invoke a shrug. People bang on about him being a liar etc, but most people have that perception of politicians anyway, it's always baked in. 

 

And do remember this should have been in the offing last time. The big difference this time is the Con manifesto doesn't include any major own goals and the Lab manifesto was expected and sounds ridiculous. The care policy last time really hurt them. This time its just Brexit and nurses. Simple and effective at this point in time.

[Alf Bentley]

17 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Corbyn is well and truly despised in the kind of areas the Conservatives are targeting. 

 

I was fortunate enough to be able to help run some focus groups at the back end of last year and early this year and the strength of feeling against him was incredible (I wish I'd asked opinions on Thatcher to compare them). Theresa May wasnt necessarily popular as a politician but there were often some warm words, or at least not scathing words, used about her. Boris never came up cos he was out of the picture at that time but I can imagine what the reaction to him is. For a lot of people his bad points will just invoke a shrug. People bang on about him being a liar etc, but most people have that perception of politicians anyway, it's always baked in. 

 

And do remember this should have been in the offing last time. The big difference this time is the Con manifesto doesn't include any major own goals and the Lab manifesto was expected and sounds ridiculous. The care policy last time really hurt them. This time its just Brexit and nurses. Simple and effective at this point in time.

 

Interesting. Can you remember what precise reasons people gave for their strength of feeling against Corbyn & what exactly they were scathing about? 

 

I'm sure what you say is true, but it would be interesting to understand precise reasons - and where people got their impressions/information from.

 

What you say about people assuming most/all politicians are liars rings true, too.

 

Edited 9 December 2019 by Alf Bentley

[Strokes]

If it wasn’t for brexit, there is no way I would vote conservative on Thursday.

[Finnaldo]

Boris will be PM then I suspect, good stuff.

 

Should have a clear majority as well, we'll see exactly what Boris has to offer.

 

If it's comments like this, we'll see where that leaves us on international standings.

 

https://www.irishpost.com/news/boris-johnson-pledges-stop-eu-migrants-treating-uk-part-country-174975

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

If it wasn’t for brexit, there is no way I would vote conservative on Thursday.

 

Are you optimistic about where Brexit will lead? What sort of country do you think we'd emerge as?

[leicsmac]

Thanks for all the responses so far.

 

Judging by what I've heard so far, I think it comes down to me simply not understanding the depth of feeling behind Brexit...I do not understand the strength of the tribal sentiment viz a viz "taking back control" and/or the sentiment to "get it done" no matter the how so the UK can be somehow over it all. Like DG above, that so many people buy into an idea I personally think irrational and with the strength of sentiment they do is deeply disheartening, chiefly because it affects the view of the future so much, which as folks around here know I consider to be really important.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, leicsmac said:

Thanks for all the responses so far.

 

Judging by what I've heard so far, I think it comes down to me simply not understanding the depth of feeling behind Brexit...I do not understand the strength of the tribal sentiment viz a viz "taking back control" and/or the sentiment to "get it done" no matter the how so the UK can be somehow over it all. Like DG above, that so many people buy into an idea I personally think irrational and with the strength of sentiment they do is deeply disheartening, chiefly because it affects the view of the future so much, which as folks around here know I consider to be really important.

I think it's more than depth of feeling about Brexit now, it's about your vote meaning something. 

 

Ever since that vote our side has been called thick, racist. Seen people try to ignore it, we've watched a biased speaker aided by politicians telling lies then block it in parliament, we've had non stop Blair, Campbell and Major on the TV telling us it's wrong and it has to be stopped.

 

It's far deeper than just the event itself now, these people cannot be allowed to win and Boris is probably now the only man who can make sure that doesn't happen.

[Kopfkino]

20 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Interesting. Can you remember what precise reasons people gave for their strength of feeling against Corbyn & what exactly they were scathing about? 

 

I'm sure what you say is true, but it would be interesting to understand precise reasons - and where people got their impressions/information from.

 

What you say about people assuming most/all politicians are liars rings true, too.

 

Yeah and I think Boris is clever in that many of his lies people just don't care about or don't really know about themselves. People don't like lying but they factor some of it in as par for the course.

 

Unpatriotic, simple as that. You would (or maybe wouldn't) be surprised by the amount of times 'he hates this country' came up. Russia, IRA and terrorist affiliations, anti-military, anti tough law and order all came up. These were what less than 12 months since Salisbury and not long after the official reports came out I think so that really did figure more heavily than you might think now but once people have made their mind up, its made up. Also, but more-so at the start of this year rather than backend of last year, blocking Brexit was a thing and I imagine now that's huge

 

So, imo, the Queen's speech nonsense will have hurt far more than it should have. Most people probably don't care about the Queen's speech but they do know when its on. The fact he didn't even know when it was on but pretended otherwise (the wrong kind of lie) will have done him no favours at all with people he needs.

[The Guvnor]

This election was called because of Brexit and has predominantly been campaigned on Brexit so it's no surprise that the Tories are ahead with the remain vote split.

Boris is a maverick can't argue with that but the alternative for many is just far too radical with a spend spend spend policy like Viv Nicholson on speed.