FT General Election Poll 2019

[SecretPro]

4 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Parliament did not want to get brexit done, that’s why we are having this GE and why the election is solely about brexit. It’s been 3 1/2 years nearly and we need a direction of travel from our elected representatives. We already know what the people think.

Not strictly true though is it, more the case that Boris didn't want to allow parliament longer than three days to ratify his deal, which parliament in the end actually voted through. And the last statement isn't a given either; Brexit has changed much in the last 3 years, what voters voted for and what they are actually likely to end up with are two very different things. On being able to consider the actual terms of brexit over the last three years I know of many that have changed their mind. The polls also suggest should there be a second referendum then the result may be entirely different.

 

Whilst I can see why people make statements like 'The people voted for brexit, so we have to now do brexit' I think that statement airbrushes the facts regarding the lies told and false promises made during the original campaign.

[David Guiza]

And yet I still feel like I've seen too much of Patel and Rees-Mogg 

 

[leicsmac]

19 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I am!  We will emerge as a country able to choose it's own path.

...can you be a bit more specific on this one in terms of examples and why exactly it's a good thing in todays world? Genuinely curious.

 

17 minutes ago, twoleftfeet said:

It was more that the decisions we make aren't not based about what is best for us but on what we want. the nature of democracy dictates that the majority win other wise we would not be a nation but a lose group of tribes still fighting for supremacy.

I posit that this vote has rather clearly shown that the UK is almost exactly that anyway.

 

I agree that impulse decisions are made every day, and not all of them are good. Society exists pretty much entirely so that those bad decisions harm no one but the person making them or are at least mitigated in one way or another - and this is about as far from that in terms of negative effects on a lot of people as it can possibly be.

 

I know this is seguing into a discussion about self-determination now and that's pretty deep territory, but I do think a large part of what's going on now does, indeed, come down to that.

[Alf Bentley]

52 minutes ago, Beliall said:

I'm coming on here to say the same thing, my mind is being pulled from left to right trying to make this decision, getting flyers from Lib Dems telling me only they can stop Boris, getting letters from labour telling me to vote Lib Dem, I dont understand it at all. I weant to vote labour, but if they are posting letters telling everyone to vote yellow, then what does that do to my vote? why cant we just vote for who we want? why not post a letter asking me to vote labour? I want to vote, but for the first time since i started voting, im seriously considering not bothering. Or Voting Green.

 

Are you really getting letters from Labour telling you to vote Lib Dem? 

 

If you live in Newhaven, that puts you in the Lewes constituency, I think? If so, the Lib Dems are actually telling the truth for once (probably). They tend to make claims that they are set to win seats that they aren't, but they do stand a chance in Lewes - and, barring an unprecedented electoral earthquake, Labour don't.

 

Of course, you can vote for whoever the hell you like and ignore calls to vote tactically to stop Boris. The reason this even occurs is because of our stupid voting system. Under any reasonable, more proportional system, you could just vote for whoever you liked without risk of "wasting your vote" on a party that had no chance in your particular area.

 

I feel like writing to my old Labour MP from 20 years ago, when Labour had a big majority. I went to lobby him for Labour to keep their 1997 manifesto promise of a referendum on electoral reform. He rejected this, saying that First Past the Post was beneficial as it gave us strong majority governments. I might write back to him to ask if he's still of that opinion, after Iraq, coalition, austerity, Brexit, strong-and-stable Theresa, her DUP deal, Boris proroguing, Boris possibly getting a majority & 5 years of unrestricted power over Brexit & everything else on 42% of the vote.... The MP is retiring but his seat in Coventry is one of those that might go Tory...... Gee! Thanks for all those years, past & future, of strong, beneficial government, Geoffrey!!  

[Tuna]

Just seen this on twitter:

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

What sound advice from Momentum for the doorstep activists 

 

 

 

If that's genuine, whoever wrote it is an absolute moron. Glad to see most people commenting below it (largely Labour supporters) were saying the same.

 

Seems to have been taken down now, anyway.

[Alf Bentley]

40 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Because Boris would be less likely to win that.

 

Not only that. Even if he did win a referendum on his deal (possible), that wouldn't give him 5 years of unrestricted power over our nation.

 

This way, he is able to cynically use Brexit supporters to gain complete power for him and his mates to do whatever they like to our country for the next half-decade.

Everything suggests that he doesn't give much of a shit either way about Brexit - or much else in politics. He's just a cynical opportunist who's using Brexit & the government of our country to boost his power and ego.

 

What he and other leading Tories (who may exert more political influence than him) do with that power, if they get it, we'll just have to wait and see, I suppose.....

[rachhere]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Not only that. Even if he did win a referendum on his deal (possible), that wouldn't give him 5 years of unrestricted power over our nation.

 

This way, he is able to cynically use Brexit supporters to gain complete power for him and his mates to do whatever they like to our country for the next half-decade.

Everything suggests that he doesn't give much of a shit either way about Brexit - or much else in politics. He's just a cynical opportunist who's using Brexit & the government of our country to boost his power and ego.

 

What he and other leading Tories (who may exert more political influence than him) do with that power, if they get it, we'll just have to wait and see, I suppose.....

Sums it up nicely. Just an incredibly selfish man who seems to see this as a big game.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

Not only that. Even if he did win a referendum on his deal (possible), that wouldn't give him 5 years of unrestricted power over our nation.

 

This way, he is able to cynically use Brexit supporters to gain complete power for him and his mates to do whatever they like to our country for the next half-decade.

Everything suggests that he doesn't give much of a shit either way about Brexit - or much else in politics. He's just a cynical opportunist who's using Brexit & the government of our country to boost his power and ego.

 

What he and other leading Tories (who may exert more political influence than him) do with that power, if they get it, we'll just have to wait and see, I suppose.....

I wouldn't have trusted parliament to pass the Boris deal even if it won a public vote - why would I? 

 

This was always only going to be sorted either way with a new parliament, not a second vote.

[ScouseFox]

32 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Boris pocketing a reporters phone after the journo showed him a pic of hospitalised child and, as with every other gaffe, it will be swept under the ever growing carpet.

 

'Any minute now he's gonna do the imaginary tits'

 

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

 

absolutely incredible bit of footage. the most tory thing i've ever seen. literally just "out of sight, out of mind", the same way all tories think about people who aren't rich, people in the north, children, and in fact most of the country. the fact they are going to get a majority vote and actual boris johnson is going to remain in charge of this country, in this day and age, is remarkable. 

 

i don't care much for politics and try to avoid most of it but boris johnson is a massive, massive cu nt. 

[Guest MattP]

15 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Just seen this on twitter:

 

 

He should be going after Channel 4 before the BBC.

 

Outrageous public money is being used to fund a "stop Brexit" news station.

[Beliall]

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Are you really getting letters from Labour telling you to vote Lib Dem? 

 

If you live in Newhaven, that puts you in the Lewes constituency, I think? If so, the Lib Dems are actually telling the truth for once (probably). They tend to make claims that they are set to win seats that they aren't, but they do stand a chance in Lewes - and, barring an unprecedented electoral earthquake, Labour don't.

 

Of course, you can vote for whoever the hell you like and ignore calls to vote tactically to stop Boris. The reason this even occurs is because of our stupid voting system. Under any reasonable, more proportional system, you could just vote for whoever you liked without risk of "wasting your vote" on a party that had no chance in your particular area.

 

I feel like writing to my old Labour MP from 20 years ago, when Labour had a big majority. I went to lobby him for Labour to keep their 1997 manifesto promise of a referendum on electoral reform. He rejected this, saying that First Past the Post was beneficial as it gave us strong majority governments. I might write back to him to ask if he's still of that opinion, after Iraq, coalition, austerity, Brexit, strong-and-stable Theresa, her DUP deal, Boris proroguing, Boris possibly getting a majority & 5 years of unrestricted power over Brexit & everything else on 42% of the vote.... The MP is retiring but his seat in Coventry is one of those that might go Tory...... Gee! Thanks for all those years, past & future, of strong, beneficial government, Geoffrey!!  

They did indeed, with Allistair cambells name and face all over it. 

Thanks for the reply, I have never voted tactically before and while my heart is with labour ill take your advice on board and consider voting Lib Dem, although the final decision will probably be made when im standing there holding the pencil. One thing i have noticed, Labour are the only ones releasing flyers with no mention of the other parties on, and i respect that.

[Alf Bentley]

43 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Haha.  Lets not forget that plenty who advocate a 2nd ref would then vote for Brexit.

 

A Pro-remain colleague suggested at lunchtime that a big majority for Boris would in fact be preferable to a small one as then he can choose to ignore the ERG etc who will no doubt be pushing for non deal come the end of the transition period.  He might be right.

 

Plenty advocating a 2nd ref in order to vote Leave?! 

Plenty would vote Leave if there was a 2nd referendum & they might win, but that's different.

 

Granted, there are some who'll vote for parties advocating a referendum, because they support that party's other policies & who'd then vote Leave in any referendum....

But that applies the other way round: there will be people voting Tory on Thursday despite not supporting Brexit: e.g. because they fear Corbyn more than Brexit or believe that the Tories will cut taxes or be better for business.

 

I take your colleague's point but I imagine there'll be even more ERG types in the next parliament. The party membership is much more pro-Hard Brexit now, particularly after countless thousands of ex-UKIP members joined up. That will surely mean that even more Tory MPs than before will support either a Hard Brexit, extensive divergence or No Deal? Certainly, most of the old pro-EU Tory MPs have left, retired or been expelled.

 

Then there's the structure of negotiations next year. Unlike with the WA, if the UK wanted to extend the transition period, it would have to apply for this by the end of June.....highly unlikely. So, as I understand it, we'd then be tied into fully leaving the EU regime in December, with or without a deal. It seems likely that the only deal that could be done that quickly would be (a) A deal whereby we remained closely aligned with the EU, getting comparatively low-friction trade in exchange for promising to stay aligned with EU standards on employment rights, product standards, consumer/environmental protection etc.; or (b) A very limited deal based on a high-friction relationship, allowing the UK to diverge significantly on regulations/rights but making us face high tariffs & more intensive checks on standards etc. The EU would surely resist any attempt to combine a close, low-friction trade relationship and great freedom to diverge on regulations/standards.....leaving us heading for the December No Deal cliff.

[LiberalFox]

I find it hard to understand how people who voted for Labour two and a half years ago will now vote for the Conservative party. The only thing I can think of is that last time out, while the election was billed as being about Brexit, maybe it is actually this election that is the Brexit election. Last time Theresa May had already enacted article 50 and Jeremy Corbyn had voted for it too, in fact he'd said he'd have enacted it sooner. Corbyn was able to openly support Brexit while getting the support of young remainers and the election was fought on other issues.

 

This election seems to be about Brexit, there hasn't been much debate over other issues at all. Parliament is in deadlock and the public have the choice of giving Johnson the majority he needs to carry out Brexit or to deny that majority most likely leading to continued chaos. Brexit voters are switching their votes from Corbyn to Johnson while more conservative types are not switching away from the Conservatives. 

[chinna]

Disgusting By Boris Johnson

 

[FerrisBueller]

Shock horror as EU Migrants *checks notes* exercise their reciprocal right to live and work in another EU country.

 

Johnson can seriously **** off with this kind of shit, dog whistling for the gammon.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

There are too many variables right now to have any kind of positivity, I’ll be a lot more confident when we know the result of this election.

 

I partly asked that question as I almost never hear Brexiteers express any optimism about how great Brexit will be for us - unlike in 2016 or for some time afterwards.

 

The argument now is purely on democratic grounds - that we voted for it (subtext: "and we can't change our minds; we must go ahead without reconsidering, even if it looks like a pointless or disastrous idea").

Or it's the "let's get Brexit over with" argument, which is a massive delusion. We might formally leave the EU on 31st Jan, but Brexit negotiations and/or consequences will be with us for years to come. Brexit won't be "done" in any meaningful sense - and that's after 11 months in the twilight zone of the transition period, under EU rules, paying for the privilege but with no democratic voice in the EU.

 

Re. your second comment: I was assuming that the election result is a Tory majority. Do you feel optimistic about our future under that scenario & what sort of thriving country will we become? 

 

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

I am!  We will emerge as a country able to choose it's own path.

 

Ah! The rare lesser spotted Brexit optimist!

 

Sorry for being facetious, but back in 2016-17 we used to hear all this bullish stuff about great post-Brexit trade deals all around the world, an easy deal with the EU, cheap food from Africa, the ability to control immigration etc.

I almost never hear any of that now.

 

Any idea what path we'll choose? Whatever it is, how easy will we find it to forge our own path in an increasingly globalised world dominated by nations and regional blocs that are much bigger and more powerful than the UK on every level from trade to diplomacy: EU, USA, China, Russia, India, Japan? Of course, some nations are smaller and less powerful than us, but they are mainly the more distant nations with which it will be impractical to do most of our trade/investment, never mind issues like security cooperation, education/research exchanges/projects etc. Those big nations/blocs will continue to be the most important ones that we'll have to deal with - from a much weaker position - won't they?

 

Vis-a-vis the EU alone, sure, we'd be able to choose our own path.....but if our path diverged significantly so as to threaten their path (competition based on deregulation), we'd end up with a very distant, high-friction trade & general relationship with our closest neighbours, wouldn't we?

[Guest MattP]

Detective Richard Burgon at it again, this time he unearths links between Boris and the Conservative party.

 

 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

Shock horror as EU Migrants *checks notes* exercise their reciprocal right to live and work in another EU country.

 

Johnson can seriously **** off with this kind of shit, dog whistling for the gammon.

It's the whole "citizen of nowhere" thing again, playing to the idea of nationhood.

 

I just don't get it. Well, I get it in that there's a feeling of tribal "belonging" that people often desire and it makes them feel better, but I don't get how it really benefits even most of those people or people they are close to, or almost anyone else, in a tangible way going forward.

[Alf Bentley]

49 minutes ago, Beliall said:

They did indeed, with Allistair cambells name and face all over it. 

Thanks for the reply, I have never voted tactically before and while my heart is with labour ill take your advice on board and consider voting Lib Dem, although the final decision will probably be made when im standing there holding the pencil. One thing i have noticed, Labour are the only ones releasing flyers with no mention of the other parties on, and i respect that.

 

If it's got Alistair Campbell on it, I assume it's unofficial, not official Labour, as he's been expelled from the Labour Party for admitting to voting tactically for the Lib Dems in the Euro elections.

 

While I'd vote tactically myself, I respect the fact that some people don't want to make that dirty compromise. Electoral reform would eliminate that need, but ain't happening any time soon, sadly.

 

Another option you have is to use a vote-swap web site: if you really wanted to vote Labour, you could swap with a Lib Dem supporter in a seat where Labour & not the Lib Dems were the main challenger - you'd promise to vote Lib Dem & they'd promise to vote Labour......means hassle & trusting a stranger, though. 

[Beliall]

41 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

If it's got Alistair Campbell on it, I assume it's unofficial, not official Labour, as he's been expelled from the Labour Party for admitting to voting tactically for the Lib Dems in the Euro elections.

 

While I'd vote tactically myself, I respect the fact that some people don't want to make that dirty compromise. Electoral reform would eliminate that need, but ain't happening any time soon, sadly.

 

Another option you have is to use a vote-swap web site: if you really wanted to vote Labour, you could swap with a Lib Dem supporter in a seat where Labour & not the Lib Dems were the main challenger - you'd promise to vote Lib Dem & they'd promise to vote Labour......means hassle & trusting a stranger, though. 

Signed up for the vote swap, lets see what happens, it was likkely i would vote Lib dem anyway the way things are going, so if i can get someone to vote Labour then it wont be for naught

[Heathrow fox]

58 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I find it hard to understand how people who voted for Labour two and a half years ago will now vote for the Conservative party. The only thing I can think of is that last time out, while the election was billed as being about Brexit, maybe it is actually this election that is the Brexit election. Last time Theresa May had already enacted article 50 and Jeremy Corbyn had voted for it too, in fact he'd said he'd have enacted it sooner. Corbyn was able to openly support Brexit while getting the support of young remainers and the election was fought on other issues.

 

This election seems to be about Brexit, there hasn't been much debate over other issues at all. Parliament is in deadlock and the public have the choice of giving Johnson the majority he needs to carry out Brexit or to deny that majority most likely leading to continued chaos. Brexit voters are switching their votes from Corbyn to Johnson while more conservative types are not switching away from the Conservatives. 

Yes and it wasn’t like the Labour Party weren’t warned about this a thousand times.There really hasn’t been a significant shift in public opinion regarding Brexit.

[Dahnsouff]

Sorry - just popped in. Is this an election thread or a Momentum thread?

 

Asking for a friend...

Edited 9 December 2019 by Dahnsouff

[Guest MattP]

Kinder, gentler politics. 

 

 

[ScouseFox]

is that meant to be a bad thing?