Starmer Next Labour Leader

[Mike Oxlong]

I’m not writing any obituaries. The existing seat division coupled with furlough will see the Tories home again next time barring a colossal fvck up. But I do want to see better opposition and a choice of the best not the least best at the next election.

What surprises me is those getting twitchy because Starmer has made a decent start. 

[StanSP]

11 minutes ago, MattP said:

Zero evidence for this at all - if there was an election tomorrow the Tories would gain seats, even if the margin of error overestimated their support.

 

For all his "forensics" his party is polling lower than Corbyn was.

 

 

I admire the optimism of those already writing the obituary of the Johnson government despite being currently on course for a worse result than 2019.

 

But I just get the feeling they might (yet again) be reading a bit too much Twitter and listening to a bit too much Newsnight.

Who has done this? 

 

Most comments I've seen are just grateful there's someone competent in charge to take on the government. Nothing wrong with people being positive about the current Labour leadership (if that's allowed, unsure these days?). 

[Finnaldo]

23 minutes ago, MattP said:

Zero evidence for this at all - if there was an election tomorrow the Tories would gain seats, even if the margin of error overestimated their support.

 

For all his "forensics" his party is polling lower than Corbyn was.

 

 

I admire the optimism of those already writing the obituary of the Johnson government despite being currently on course for a worse result than 2019.

 

But I just get the feeling they might (yet again) be reading a bit too much Twitter and listening to a bit too much Newsnight.

I think you missed the rest of my post where I said that this won’t win seats back over night. The fact is they’ll be voters drawn back on the basis they literally said so themselves.
 

We’ve witnessed a trend of world leaders and governing parties garner high ratings, I’d to point two points you’ve made yourself:

 

1) The Tories have a majority and no reason to call an election, so why on Earth do pollings matter? They shift massively during elections periods regardless, and the next one is four years away. We’re about a month into the current leader’s reign.
 

2) They’re very popular now, but we’ll see what happens when it comes to paying for furlough and the general aftermath and body count of the pandemic.

 

Starmer’s first speech when he won was to say he’d be backing the government and be providing constructive criticism where necessary (as he has done). Was he supposed to be making up 20 points going soft on the government? What a bizarre metric to judge a man who’s been opposition leader for a month in the middle of a pandemic. 
 

At the same time, it’s not stopped Conservative MPs sharing doctored videos of him. 

Edited 14 May 2020 by Finnaldo

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Who has done this? 

 

Most comments I've seen are just grateful there's someone competent in charge to take on the government. Nothing wrong with people being positive about the current Labour leadership (if that's allowed, unsure these days?). 

 

 

23 hours ago, Bilo said:

Depends on how it ends.

 

All political careers have to - it's just whether it's to a standing ovation in Parliament or crying in the back of a Jaguar. 

 

It seems highly unlikely that Johnson's taking the Blair route. 

 

 

On 13/05/2020 at 13:29, martyn said:

Boris will get ground down at this rate.  Starmer is running rings around him No wonder JRM wants the braying mob back asap. 

 

Not sure how he didnt see that Starmer set piece on care homes coming. Could have bluffed/obfuscated and avoided this letter being drafted. 

 

How on earth Boris will make that clarification sound palatable will be interesting. 

 

On 13/05/2020 at 15:15, StriderHiryu said:

Yep it's a classic legal strategy. If you are in for the long haul on a long and complex case, it's not about winning a single exchange, it's about consistently poking holes in the opposition's case over and over. I think it's also smart to go this way because right now if he was too aggressive it could backfire in a way that the Democrats in America faced when they impeached Trump. It could seem like he's trying to spin things politically at a time when the country is in dire straights. It's better for now to be seen to try and do the best for the country whilst subtly reminding everyone that the current government are hopelessly failing at their basic duties. Then next year when the worst of the virus is behind us (hopefully!) they turn the screw with hard-hitting questions as to why key blunders happened in the first place. If they haven't got already, I would expect some major casualties next year like Matt Hancock and co as fall men. Then mop up in the delayed local elections and possibly even look to strike a vote of no confidence, though this latter point I think is unlikely in the short-term.

Obviously I'm slightly exaggerating, but your side would be absolutely pissing themselves if Tories were speaking like this whilst being 20pts behind in the polls and rightly so.

[StanSP]

5 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Starmer’s first speech when he won was to say he’d be backing the government and be providing constructive criticism where necessary (as he has done). Was he supposed to be making up 20 points going soft on the government? What a bizarre metric to judge a man who’s been opposition leader for a month in the middle of a pandemic. 
 

At the same time, it’s not stopped Conservative MPs sharing doctored videos of him. 

Failure for Keir to win points is a win some Tories will happily take

 

1 minute ago, MattP said:

 

 

 

 

Obviously I'm slightly exaggerating, but your side would be absolutely pissing themselves if Tories were speaking like this whilst being 20pts behind in the polls and rightly so.

It's this kind of 'what-aboutery' many of us were labelled with over the years. Okay when you do it sir! 

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

I think you missed the rest of my post where I said that this won’t win seats back over night. The fact is they’ll be voters drawn back on the basis they literally said so themselves.
 

We’ve witnessed a trend of world leaders and governing parties garner high ratings, I’d to point two points you’ve made yourself:

 

1) The Tories have a majority and no reason to call an election, so why on Earth do pollings matter? They shift massively during elections periods regardless, and the next one is four years away. We’re about a month into the current leader’s reign.
 

2) They’re very popular now, but we’ll see what happens when it comes to paying for furlough and the general aftermath and body count of the pandemic.

 

Starmer’s first speech when he won was to say he’d be backing the government and be providing constructive criticism where necessary (as he has done). Was he supposed to be making up 20 points going soft on the government? What a bizarre metric to judge a man who’s been opposition leader for a month in the middle of a pandemic. 
 

At the same time, it’s not stopped Conservative MPs sharing doctored videos of him. 

I was just making sure anybody reading was aware that there is no evidence whatsoever your assertion that he has "won back swathes of voters".

 

He may have done of course, but we don't have a single piece of information that would lead us to that conclusion.

[SecretPro]

Can't believe there's even Tories on here. I'm old enough to remember when football was a working class game.

Edited 14 May 2020 by SecretPro

[Finnaldo]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

I was just making sure anybody reading was aware that there is no evidence whatsoever your assertion that he has "won back swathes of voters".

 

He may have done of course, but we don't have a single piece of information that would lead us to that conclusion.

Apart from the fact it’s quite literally what some voters said on live TV I guess not. 
 

A portion of voters will return now Corbyn is no longer leader. I hope you can bear those semantics 

[Facecloth]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

I was just making sure anybody reading was aware that there is no evidence whatsoever your assertion that he has "won back swathes of voters".

 

He may have done of course, but we don't have a single piece of information that would lead us to that conclusion.

You do know those polls are based on asking 1667 people. They are a good indicator and I have no doubt they know what they are doing, but they are far from proof of anything.

[Kopfkino]

2 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

Can't believe there's even Tories on here. I'm old enough to remember when football was a working class game.

 

And I've got my head far enough out of the sand to know that more working class folk voted Conservative than Labour in December

[SecretPro]

1 minute ago, Kopfkino said:

 

And I've got my head far enough out of the sand to know that more working class folk voted Conservative than Labour in December

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Apart from the fact it’s quite literally what some voters said on live TV I guess not. 
 

A portion of voters will return now Corbyn is no longer leader. I hope you can bear those semantics 

 

7 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

You do know those polls are based on asking 1667 people. They are a good indicator and I have no doubt they know what they are doing, but they are far from proof of anything.

[Kopfkino]

35 minutes ago, MattP said:

Zero evidence for this at all - if there was an election tomorrow the Tories would gain seats, even if the margin of error overestimated their support.

 

For all his "forensics" his party is polling lower than Corbyn was.

 

 

I admire the optimism of those already writing the obituary of the Johnson government despite being currently on course for a worse result than 2019.

 

But I just get the feeling they might (yet again) be reading a bit too much Twitter and listening to a bit too much Newsnight.

 

I'm not sure current polls are particularly representative. They do ask who you'd vote for in a an election tomorrow and there will be a, not insignificant, portion of the population that answers it based on it being utterly absurd to change governments in the middle of the crisis. 

 

The idea that voters will return to the Labour Party now Corbyn's gone is little difference to the arrogance that thought they wouldn't leave in the first place. People may have found it tough to change their vote, and undoubtedly some will return without an obvious excuse to vote Conservative or more likely just not vote, but basic psychology shows it becomes much easier to do something once you've done it for the first time. 

 

The other problem the Labour Party has is its hard to imagine the boundary changes that will now finally happen being beneficial to them. It might make little difference, but it has the possibility of making it even harder. I think they currently need a Tony Blair kind of swing just to get to largest party. Not impossible, and this could be similar to post-92 when the public lost all faith in the competence of the government, but even then they're relying on the SNP (assuming Scotland remains) which in turn affects people's vote choice down here. It seems unlikely they can rely on a Lib Dem/Green surge in Conservative areas which also helped in the 90s.

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I wonder if this was orchestrated at a lower level (Cummings). 

Not a chance at this stage, pointless.

 

At election time if he is doing better than expected? That's when you can expect some dodgy high profile linkage to Starmer/grooming gangs/Savile etc to get it out amongst the public debate.

[Kopfkino]

10 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

Sorry, so used to your drivel I couldn't tell

[Strokes]

40 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I’m not writing any obituaries. The existing seat division coupled with furlough will see the Tories home again next time barring a colossal fvck up. But I do want to see better opposition and a choice of the best not the least best at the next election.

What surprises me is those getting twitchy because Starmer has made a decent start. 

That’s fair enough and believe it or not I want that too, I just wish he would make good on his promise to support the government through the crisis. He has offered nothing in terms of support as far as I can see.

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, Mike Oxlong said:

Can only think they’re rattled already.  

 

 I wonder if this was orchestrated at a lower level (Cummings). 

 

How has Cummings been so Rasputinised that people actually genuinely wonder whether everything that happens is driven by him

[SecretPro]

1 minute ago, Kopfkino said:

Sorry, so used to your drivel I couldn't tell

 

[urban.spaceman]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I rarely seem to understand Twitter, a bit too sophisticated for me. Can you explain?

You've got that the wrong way round. You're too sophisticated for Twitter. It's a ****ing sewer.

[StriderHiryu]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

 

 

 

Obviously I'm slightly exaggerating, but your side would be absolutely pissing themselves if Tories were speaking like this whilst being 20pts behind in the polls and rightly so.

Why do you have to take sides? This isn't football.

 

I want what is best for this country. Do you think this is good enough?
 

- 2nd highest number of official Coronavirus related deaths in the world, ignoring China whose figures are murkier than dishwater.

- Highest number of deaths in Europe, despite seeing what had happened in Italy and having advance warning to prepare for it.

- Our very own Prime Minister telling us repeatedly not to worry and that he was happily shaking the hands of people who already had the virus, whom then contracted said virus and had to be put on oxygen and given a month off work to recover.

- Daily Testing goal of 100K only passed through fudging of the numbers with home delivery kits and still not reaching those numbers consistently now, 14 days after we were told the target would be hit.

- Contact tracing app not rolled out, known problems with it only working in the foreground and not using Google / Apple APIs. Such solutions already exist and are used in other countries.

- PPE nightmare. Still haven't procured enough for our own health service, 400K pieces of equipment were brought from Turkey which turned out to be faulty. Numerous testing kits purchased from China which did not work.

- Test results having to be sent off to American because they could not be processed here.

- Care Homes scandal with old people in the country facing a nightmare situation.
- Inconsistent messaging with people unclear what to do, and lower-class families and workers pushed back into work despite obviously unsafe conditions.

 

Do I like the current Tory party? No I do not. But honestly I couldn't give a monkeys who is in charge of the country be they Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or even Green if they were doing a good job in terms of making this country a good place to live. The Tories did some excellent things in response to this pandemic; the furloughing scheme for those whose livelihood was at risk and loans for small businesses were superb, as was the decision to extend this deadline into October. These are among the best pieces of financial support dished out in the world. But other than that it's been one own goal after another. Confidence in this government is shot for a reason - they have done an appalling job in response to the greatest health pandemic we have seen in our lifetimes.

 

 

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, StriderHiryu said:

Why do you have to take sides? This isn't football.

 

I want what is best for this country. Do you think this is good enough?
 

- 2nd highest number of official Coronavirus related deaths in the world, ignoring China whose figures are murkier than dishwater.

- Highest number of deaths in Europe, despite seeing what had happened in Italy and having advance warning to prepare for it.

- Our very own Prime Minister telling us repeatedly not to worry and that he was happily shaking the hands of people who already had the virus, whom then contracted said virus and had to be put on oxygen and given a month off work to recover.

- Daily Testing goal of 100K only passed through fudging of the numbers with home delivery kits and still not reaching those numbers consistently now, 14 days after we were told the target would be hit.

- Contact tracing app not rolled out, known problems with it only working in the foreground and not using Google / Apple APIs. Such solutions already exist and are used in other countries.

- PPE nightmare. Still haven't procured enough for our own health service, 400K pieces of equipment were brought from Turkey which turned out to be faulty. Numerous testing kits purchased from China which did not work.

- Test results having to be sent off to American because they could not be processed here.

- Care Homes scandal with old people in the country facing a nightmare situation.
- Inconsistent messaging with people unclear what to do, and lower-class families and workers pushed back into work despite obviously unsafe conditions.

 

Do I like the current Tory party? No I do not. But honestly I couldn't give a monkeys who is in charge of the country be they Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or even Green if they were doing a good job in terms of making this country a good place to live. The Tories did some excellent things in response to this pandemic; the furloughing scheme for those whose livelihood was at risk and loans for small businesses were superb, as was the decision to extend this deadline into October. These are among the best pieces of financial support dished out in the world. But other than that it's been one own goal after another. Confidence in this government is shot for a reason - they have done an appalling job in response to the greatest health pandemic we have seen in our lifetimes.

 

 

The only thing I'll add to this is that as much as it might be desired by some people, it isn't possible to remove the political element from the coronavirus crisis because the variance in the governmental responses to it (and as such also some of the results) across the world is heavily driven by...politics.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, StriderHiryu said:

Why do you have to take sides? This isn't football.

 

I want what is best for this country. Do you think this is good enough?
 

- 2nd highest number of official Coronavirus related deaths in the world, ignoring China whose figures are murkier than dishwater.

- Highest number of deaths in Europe, despite seeing what had happened in Italy and having advance warning to prepare for it.

- Our very own Prime Minister telling us repeatedly not to worry and that he was happily shaking the hands of people who already had the virus, whom then contracted said virus and had to be put on oxygen and given a month off work to recover.

- Daily Testing goal of 100K only passed through fudging of the numbers with home delivery kits and still not reaching those numbers consistently now, 14 days after we were told the target would be hit.

- Contact tracing app not rolled out, known problems with it only working in the foreground and not using Google / Apple APIs. Such solutions already exist and are used in other countries.

- PPE nightmare. Still haven't procured enough for our own health service, 400K pieces of equipment were brought from Turkey which turned out to be faulty. Numerous testing kits purchased from China which did not work.

- Test results having to be sent off to American because they could not be processed here.

- Care Homes scandal with old people in the country facing a nightmare situation.
- Inconsistent messaging with people unclear what to do, and lower-class families and workers pushed back into work despite obviously unsafe conditions.

 

Do I like the current Tory party? No I do not. But honestly I couldn't give a monkeys who is in charge of the country be they Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or even Green if they were doing a good job in terms of making this country a good place to live. The Tories did some excellent things in response to this pandemic; the furloughing scheme for those whose livelihood was at risk and loans for small businesses were superb, as was the decision to extend this deadline into October. These are among the best pieces of financial support dished out in the world. But other than that it's been one own goal after another. Confidence in this government is shot for a reason - they have done an appalling job in response to the greatest health pandemic we have seen in our lifetimes.

I'm not arguing in favour or against the government, I have no idea why you have made a long and verbose post that seems to think I am.

 

Public confidence in the government is actually high if you look at any polling on it. You might think it is shot but no evidence suggests it is.

[Mike Oxlong]

4 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

How has Cummings been so Rasputinised that people actually genuinely wonder whether everything that happens is driven by him

Maybe because it’s a good narrative and because  he doesn’t give a shit what people think ! Oh yeah, and because he looks like a weasel.
 

Against the proposition is that he’s too smart to make such a dumb mistake 

 

You’re obviously aware of the Rasputin analogies in the media 

 

 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/09/08/world/europe/dominic-cummings-brexit-boris-johnson.amp.html

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

Maybe because it’s a good narrative and because  he doesn’t give a shit what people think ! Oh yeah, and because he looks like a weasel.
 

Against the proposition is that he’s too smart to make such a dumb mistake 

 

You’re obviously aware of the Rasputin analogies in the media 

 

 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/09/08/world/europe/dominic-cummings-brexit-boris-johnson.amp.html

And the brouhaha with Cambridge Analytica made people perhaps more prepared to entertain conspiracy theories regarding manipulation of information on a massive scale on the internet.

[Mike Oxlong]

16 minutes ago, Strokes said:

That’s fair enough and believe it or not I want that too, I just wish he would make good on his promise to support the government through the crisis. He has offered nothing in terms of support as far as I can see.

I’m not convinced that Boris is open to collaboration as evidenced by the approach with the devolved leaders regarding Sunday’s announcement 

 

I suppose PMQs gives limited opportunity for Starmer to raise matters in the house each week. In particular the care homes fiasco  is deserving of critical analysis 

 

I think Starmer has credited the government for furlough and SEISS but it is a fundamental part of his function to raise and question perceived errors. PMQs already facilitates backslapping by the mechanism of questions from MPs of the ruling party