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StanSP

Starmer Next Labour Leader

By StanSP, in General Chat

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Strokes

Strokes

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Surely you have to take in to account a lot of people didn't vote Labour purely because of Corbyn? And they did it out of the principle of not liking him/wanting him so didn't want him in power. They used their vote to send a statement of not wanting him as a leader of Labour, let alone the country. I don't think it's that inconceivable their vote could swing back to Labour now there's a much more efficient person in charge of the party. The volume of people in that position I'm not sure...

Yes but I imagine quite a few voted Tory for the very first time and now it’s not unthinkable to do so, so he has to win them back.

BlueSi13

BlueSi13

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, hackneyfox said:

Stop now you're making a Johnson of yourself.

 

You're failing on both statistics and economics.

 

Ouch...so forensic ;)

 

Ask a 100 people at your workplace whether they think you're doing a good job.  I think we both know you'd prefer 57 of them to say yes you are, rather than 40.  

BlueSi13

BlueSi13

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Strokes said:

Yes but I imagine quite a few voted Tory for the very first time and now it’s not unthinkable to do so, so he has to win them back.

True, a lot of taboos were well and truly broken in December.  

 

Another thing to consider that this wasn't a flash in the pan result.  Take Bolsover for example...the constituency had slowly been turning blue since 1997:

 

Bolsover Labour Majority:

1997 - 27,149

2001 - 18,777

2005 - 18,437

2010 - 11,182

2015 - 11,778

2017 - 5,288

2019 - Conservative gain (majority 5,299)

 

This pattern is common across the country.  Labours decline has been long and slow, it hasn't all been because of Corbyn.

 

Re-gaining the trust of the country will take a lot longer than some are predicting and with them being led by a man that has spent the past four years trying to reverse the largest democratic vote in the countries history, it's only going to make things even more difficult.

Guest Bilo

Guest Bilo

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

Huh?

 

So nearly 60% of the country thinks Boris is doing a good job compared to Starmer on 40% so that of course puts Starmer ahead.

 

I suppose Labour are ahead in the polls as well despite being 20 points behind? 

 

Boris Johnson could make the whole country millionaires at midnight tonight.  Wouldn't stop a third of the country thinking he's satan reborn.

But, using the same logic, 35% of people think Johnson is doing a bad job compared to only 17% who think Starmer is ballsing it up. We can both be selective with the figures, which is why the net approval rating is the key one.

Guest Bilo

Guest Bilo

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Ouch...so forensic ;)

 

Ask a 100 people at your workplace whether they think you're doing a good job.  I think we both know you'd prefer 57 of them to say yes you are, rather than 40.  

I'd be a lot more concerned if 35 people thought I was shit than I would if only 17 did. 

 

It cuts both ways.

Mike Oxlong

Mike Oxlong

Posted
Posted

The last election seemed to be won by a vote on the least bad option. Hopefully the next one will be based on a choice between two decent options. Whatever your leanings it’s got to be good to have effective opposition. Starmer’s done no more than made a good start. I viewed him as a bit wooden but he’s been better than I expected and he may yet grow into his position. And Boris does have the potential to fvck up big time. Can he deliver on expectations ? Interesting times ahead. 

murphy

murphy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bilo said:

But, using the same logic, 35% of people think Johnson is doing a bad job compared to only 17% who think Starmer is ballsing it up. We can both be selective with the figures, which is why the net approval rating is the key one.

That's not a great way of looking at it.  I mean how can Starmer do a bad job? 

 

Ask the wrong question?  Wear a silly hat?  He has no responsibilities in this crisis so how can he mess it up?

Guest Bilo

Guest Bilo

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, murphy said:

That's not a great way of looking at it.  I mean how can Starmer do a bad job? 

 

Ask the wrong question?  Wear a silly hat?  He has no responsibilities in this crisis so how can he mess it up?

His responsibility is to hold the government to account and ask the questions that need asking, together with setting himself up as a plausible alternative. He's doing that very well. 

Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Abrasive fox said:

Wouldn't class the average tory member as an everyday person but maybe thats just me.

There are now plenty of working class everyday people who are Tory voters though, so those people need to be convinced to swing back Red. If Starmer can't relate to them, he'll have trouble winning back all the seats they lost in December.

leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

 

 

Re-gaining the trust of the country will take a lot longer than some are predicting and with them being led by a man that has spent the past four years trying to reverse the largest democratic vote in the countries history, it's only going to make things even more difficult.

In normal Brexit-dominated times I would certainly agree with this. However, given the current times I think that the next election might not actually feature Brexit and its consequences as the priority issue at all.

 

Never thought I'd see an issue supersede Brexit in terms of voting importance in the minds of the majority of the British public for a long time (though personally I disagree with that assertion), but even though the body count may have stopped rising in 2024 the Covid outbreak and the fallout from it may well do exactly that.

 

As such, I wouldn't be so quick to write off drastic change.

Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Bilo said:

His responsibility is to hold the government to account and ask the questions that need asking, together with setting himself up as a plausible alternative. He's doing that very well. 

This is my issue with opposition parties at times of crisis, they are solely reactive. It is of course part of the job to ask questions, especially about how things are going wrong. However, such times do not prohibit opposition from presenting alternate lines of thought, presenting the Government with a better way to operate within the crisis. If the job of an opposition is to act as a reflection pool only, the public is being painfully undersold.

CosbehFox

CosbehFox

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

 

Boris Johnson could make the whole country millionaires at midnight tonight.  Wouldn't stop a third of the country thinking he's satan reborn.

Good description to be honest.

 

Known, proven liar

Ethically questionable

Moral-less when it comes to relationships 

 

Mike Oxlong

Mike Oxlong

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dahnsouff said:

This is my issue with opposition parties at times of crisis, they are solely reactive. It is of course part of the job to ask questions, especially about how things are going wrong. However, such times do not prohibit opposition from presenting alternate lines of thought, presenting the Government with a better way to operate within the crisis. If the job of an opposition is to act as a reflection pool only, the public is being painfully undersold.

When devolved leaders say they first heard of the different approach in England (Stay Alert/Active encouragement to return to work if you can’t work at home) from the media I can’t see Boris and Dom taking too much notice of suggestions from the opposition regarding better ways for the government to operate 

Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Oxlong said:

When devolved leaders say they first heard of the different approach in England (Stay Alert/Active encouragement to return to work if you can’t work at home) from the media I can’t see Boris and Dom taking too much notice of suggestions from the opposition regarding better ways for the government to operate 

When in opposition, you are always preaching in part to next elections electorate, disputing a governmental position or decision is fine, but doing so with an alternate approach can be later referred too. (In the build up to the next election)

This is what I personally want from my opposition, be they red, blue or whatever. This is not to say cross examination of governmental decisions is not worthwhile, of course it is, its crucial, but it should not be the only ammunition available to an opposition.

murphy

murphy

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Bilo said:

His responsibility is to hold the government to account and ask the questions that need asking, together with setting himself up as a plausible alternative. He's doing that very well. 

I Know.  Piece of piss,

 

Would you rather be the bloke leading the country through a pandemic and economic crisis, or the bloke whose job it is to complain about it?  I was just saying that I think it is difficult for him to do a bad job.  A misstep by Starmer won't result in the loss of thousands of lives.

 

That said, he does look a much more credible leader than Corbyn, but then so does my neighbour's cat.

Mike Oxlong

Mike Oxlong

Posted
Posted

The care homes situation looks scandalous but the furlough scheme will give the government plenty of credit with many voters at the next election even though  the self employed will not feel quite so grateful if the SEISS scheme isn’t extended beyond June. 

Finnaldo

Finnaldo

Posted
Posted

I don’t want to wade in to this argument too far because it’s going around in circles a bit, but there were plenty of voters on election night who were interviewed and said straight “I’d never vote Tory again, but I’ll vote for them to get Corbyn out”. The attitude of many of them I saw interviewed and a few I know personally looked like it pained them to even tick the Conservative box. 
 

I’m not saying he’s going to win the red wall back over night, but just being competent means he’s already won a swathe of votes back. The rest remains in the air.

Guest Harrydc

Guest Harrydc

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, StanSP said:

Surely you have to take in to account a lot of people didn't vote Labour purely because of Corbyn? And they did it out of the principle of not liking him/wanting him so didn't want him in power. They used their vote to send a statement of not wanting him as a leader of Labour, let alone the country. I don't think it's that inconceivable their vote could swing back to Labour now there's a much more efficient person in charge of the party. The volume of people in that position I'm not sure...

I'm unsure. From what I've heard Labour have lost a lot of members who were signed up since Starmer took over. The leaked Labour reports has a lot to do with that I believe. 

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Mike Oxlong said:

This is often expressed as a given as if the Labour leader needs to have a flat cap and a coal blackened face to be electable. The last posh boy barrister who led that party was their most successful leader at the polls for generations. 

 

22 hours ago, Bilo said:

It's surreal that, in a country where an Old Etonian with de Pfeffel as a middle name just won a landslide majority driven by working-class votes, a barrister who grew up in a North London semi is declared to be unrelatable because he built a successful law career for himself. 

People still aren't getting it if this is what they think, people will respect him for making a career for himself, but understanding the electorate is what connects with them. It's the culture of Labour that has seen it lose its core vote, it's everything from Lord Mandelson's diversity obsession to Emily Thornberry openly showing her distain to a St Georges Cross.

 

As @BlueSi13 points out below, this has been happening for a while now - if Labour members want to convince themselves they lost the working class work because of Corbyn it might be comforting but it's not to help them. I'd put good money on the working class shift away from Labour continuing under Starmer rather than reversing now the taboo is broken. There are probably still a few million Attlee/Blue Labour types who still hold the belief of faith, flag and family. 

 

Until the Labour party stops being part of that group of people that wants to control what people say, do and sometimes even think it won't win many of its base back.

 

The last couple of years were the culmination of it, they went a stage further and told them they didn't even respect their vote, let alone what they think and the fingerprints of Starmer are all over that.

 

18 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

True, a lot of taboos were well and truly broken in December.  

 

Another thing to consider that this wasn't a flash in the pan result.  Take Bolsover for example...the constituency had slowly been turning blue since 1997:

 

Bolsover Labour Majority:

1997 - 27,149

2001 - 18,777

2005 - 18,437

2010 - 11,182

2015 - 11,778

2017 - 5,288

2019 - Conservative gain (majority 5,299)

 

This pattern is common across the country.  Labours decline has been long and slow, it hasn't all been because of Corbyn.

 

Re-gaining the trust of the country will take a lot longer than some are predicting and with them being led by a man that has spent the past four years trying to reverse the largest democratic vote in the countries history, it's only going to make things even more difficult.

 

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

I don’t want to wade in to this argument too far because it’s going around in circles a bit, but there were plenty of voters on election night who were interviewed and said straight “I’d never vote Tory again, but I’ll vote for them to get Corbyn out”. The attitude of many of them I saw interviewed and a few I know personally looked like it pained them to even tick the Conservative box. 
 

I’m not saying he’s going to win the red wall back over night, but just being competent means he’s already won a swathe of votes back. The rest remains in the air.

Zero evidence for this at all - if there was an election tomorrow the Tories would gain seats, even if the margin of error overestimated their support.

 

For all his "forensics" his party is polling lower than Corbyn was.

 

 

I admire the optimism of those already writing the obituary of the Johnson government despite being currently on course for a worse result than 2019.

 

But I just get the feeling they might (yet again) be reading a bit too much Twitter and listening to a bit too much Newsnight.

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