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Wymsey

US Presidential Election 2020

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35 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Could it actually end up exciting ?  I mean is there a possibility that ‘abe Lincoln’ could actually become Lazarus!! ???

The way I see it, probably not. As long a one of these states is called for Biden on election night, that's it.

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42 minutes ago, I am Rod Hull said:

Sleepy Joe.... "show the tape, put it on your website" lol

 

 

I hope he does end fossil fuel subsidies...followed by the fossil fuel industry for energy generation and vehicle powering of almost any kind.

 

All the jobs and all the money in the world mean absolutely naff all when the food and potable water you can buy with it is so scarce due to increased temperatures that you can no longer afford it.

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Pretty depressing that Joe is forced to shy away from policies banning environmentally destructive, climate change endangering activities like fracking in order to get elected. Makes you think that whoever gets elected the US will continue on its environment-destroying trajectory :(

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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I was watching SNL yesterday and it was ridiculous for it to be spelled out that both Biden and Trump are older than both Clinton and Bush Jr. (Biden by some way and Trump by a month or so, but the point stands)

 

That's absolutely ridiculous. If they insist on minimum age limits before you can run for president, surely they should consider maximum ages? It's an utter joke than 74 & 77 are the ages of the candidates. Sometimes you need saving from yourself.

 

Also RE: the election, I'm interested to know what crap will be going down at polling stations on the day. You just know some gun-toting right-wing idiot is going to do something stupid at a polling place.

 

What a cesspool this election could well be. Imagine if Biden won Texas, not even Despot Donald could argue with that result.

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Just now, Footballwipe said:

I was watching SNL yesterday and it was ridiculous for it to be spelled out that both Biden and Trump are older than both Clinton and Bush Jr. (Biden by some way and Trump by a month or so, but the point stands)

 

That's absolutely ridiculous. If they insist on minimum age limits before you can run for president, surely they should consider maximum ages? It's an utter joke than 74 & 77 are the ages of the candidates. Sometimes you need saving from yourself.

 

Also RE: the election, I'm interested to know what crap will be going down at polling stations on the day. You just know some gun-toting right-wing idiot is going to do something stupid at a polling place.

 

What a cesspool this election could well be. Imagine if Biden won Texas, not even Despot Donald could argue with that result.

Don Quayle the VP for Bush senior is the same age as Trump. That blows my mind.

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Seems like Biden confused Trump for George Bush? Or was it George Washington? :ph34r:

 

 

Come on, Joe. It's crunch time. You can't be making goofs like this a week out from the election, it allows the orange cvnt to push his "he's too old and senile" rhetoric. 

 

Honestly, why couldn't Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson just run and it would already be decided by now.

 

 

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1 hour ago, RoboFox said:

Seems like Biden confused Trump for George Bush? Or was it George Washington? :ph34r:

 

 

Come on, Joe. It's crunch time. You can't be making goofs like this a week out from the election, it allows the orange cvnt to push his "he's too old and senile" rhetoric. 

 

Honestly, why couldn't Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson just run and it would already be decided by now.

 

 

Lol oh dear that cant help  and if i was Trump i would use that big time.

 

Joe gotta do better for sure but does make you wonder.

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1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54700307

 

Barrett confirmed as the newest SC judge. I guess we'll see what consequences this might have for the upcoming election, to say nothing of womens and LGBT rights.

The whole idea of politically motivated top judges seems crazy to me.

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16 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

The whole idea of politically motivated top judges seems crazy to me.

It seemed crazy to the Founders too, hence their design of a judiciary that would be supposedly politically independent.

 

In practice...well, one can see how well that has turned out now.

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8 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

The whole idea of politically motivated top judges seems crazy to me.

 

The randomness of which presidents end up nominating Supreme Court judges, based on death/incapacity, also seems absurd.

 

Just checked:

- Bush Sr. nominated 1 in 4 years

- Clinton 1 in 8 years

- Bush Jr. 2 in 8 years

- Obama 2 in 8 years

- Trump 3 in 4 years so far

 

Trump might (hopefully) be booted out shortly, yet his nominations could dominate the Supreme Court for up to 40 years, as they're all aged late 40s/early 50s.

The only judge aged over 80 is reputedly a liberal judge.

 

If (big IF) the Democrats do win the Presidency, House of Reps and Senate, I wonder if they'll try to reform the system?

Would be massively controversial and divisive, I imagine, so might make sense to wait and see how the Supreme Court acts in response to the pro-conservative legal cases that would doubtless be brought before them.....

 

Anyone know how easy or difficult it would be to institute such a reform? Would it require a 2/3 Senate majority or a referendum or anything? Or anyone have an opinion on what the Dems would do if they did have such power from January?

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Another way of looking at those nominations.....

 

They've all been appointed in the last 32 years.

 

During those 32 years, the Republicans have held the presidency for 16 years and the Democrats for 16 years.

Yet Republican Presidents have ended up nominating 6 of the judges and Democrat Presidents only 3......based largely on the randomness of personal lifespans.

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16 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The randomness of which presidents end up nominating Supreme Court judges, based on death/incapacity, also seems absurd.

 

Just checked:

- Bush Sr. nominated 1 in 4 years

- Clinton 1 in 8 years

- Bush Jr. 2 in 8 years

- Obama 2 in 8 years

- Trump 3 in 4 years so far

 

Trump might (hopefully) be booted out shortly, yet his nominations could dominate the Supreme Court for up to 40 years, as they're all aged late 40s/early 50s.

The only judge aged over 80 is reputedly a liberal judge.

 

If (big IF) the Democrats do win the Presidency, House of Reps and Senate, I wonder if they'll try to reform the system?

Would be massively controversial and divisive, I imagine, so might make sense to wait and see how the Supreme Court acts in response to the pro-conservative legal cases that would doubtless be brought before them.....

 

Anyone know how easy or difficult it would be to institute such a reform? Would it require a 2/3 Senate majority or a referendum or anything? Or anyone have an opinion on what the Dems would do if they did have such power from January?

I understand that the Constitution doesn't specify the amount of Supreme Court justices, but I'd imagine attempting to change it would be political suicide and a clear attempt to 'pack the court' which I think would undermine the legitimacy of the institution. I think 9 justices have been used since the middle to late 19th century. 

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28 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The randomness of which presidents end up nominating Supreme Court judges, based on death/incapacity, also seems absurd.

 

Just checked:

- Bush Sr. nominated 1 in 4 years

- Clinton 1 in 8 years

- Bush Jr. 2 in 8 years

- Obama 2 in 8 years

- Trump 3 in 4 years so far

 

Trump might (hopefully) be booted out shortly, yet his nominations could dominate the Supreme Court for up to 40 years, as they're all aged late 40s/early 50s.

The only judge aged over 80 is reputedly a liberal judge.

 

If (big IF) the Democrats do win the Presidency, House of Reps and Senate, I wonder if they'll try to reform the system?

Would be massively controversial and divisive, I imagine, so might make sense to wait and see how the Supreme Court acts in response to the pro-conservative legal cases that would doubtless be brought before them.....

 

Anyone know how easy or difficult it would be to institute such a reform? Would it require a 2/3 Senate majority or a referendum or anything? Or anyone have an opinion on what the Dems would do if they did have such power from January?

The Dems have a few possible options for reform:

 

- grant Puerto Rico and Washington DC "statehood", giving them seats in the Senate. Those two places would almost invariably elect Dem senators, so that's another four Dem senators.

- abolish the filibuster, whereby a motion in the Senate doesn't need 60 votes to win, just a simple majority, in most cases (this is the most likely thing to happen)

- expand the Supreme Court by a few seats. This can be done in the Senate with a simple majority, but it's considered as a nuclear option simply because it would escalate matters: the Dems do it now with a majority, the Repubs could do exactly the same with their own majority in the future.

 

FWIW I can see some kind of (unspoken) bargain being made whereby the Dems don't expand the Court on the proviso that the Court rules often in favour of established precedent, especially on hot button issues like abortion and LGBT rights.

Edited by leicsmac
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One week to go, and...

 

Texas - Trump + 2.5% (0.3% swing to Trump over the last five days)

Ohio - Trump +1.2% (0.4% swing to Trump)

Iowa - Biden + 0.1% (0.2% swing to Biden)

Georgia -  Biden + 0.2% (0.2% swing to Biden)

North Carolina - Biden +1.7% (0.6% swing to Trump)

Florida - Biden + 2.0% (1.0% swing to Trump)

Arizona - Biden + 2.5% (0.2% swing to Trump)

Pennsylvania - Biden + 5.3% (0.4% swing to Trump)

 

Trump making headway in Florida, but not much happening elsewhere with not much time left. Iowa and Georgia seem to be full-on coin flips now.

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6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

One week to go, and...

 

Texas - Trump + 2.5% (0.3% swing to Trump over the last five days)

Ohio - Trump +1.2% (0.4% swing to Trump)

Iowa - Biden + 0.1% (0.2% swing to Biden)

Georgia -  Biden + 0.2% (0.2% swing to Biden)

North Carolina - Biden +1.7% (0.6% swing to Trump)

Florida - Biden + 2.0% (1.0% swing to Trump)

Arizona - Biden + 2.5% (0.2% swing to Trump)

Pennsylvania - Biden + 5.3% (0.4% swing to Trump)

 

Trump making headway in Florida, but not much happening elsewhere with not much time left. Iowa and Georgia seem to be full-on coin flips now.

 

Thanks. Good to see these overviews, Mac.

 

I wonder what impact the latest police shooting and riots in Philadelphia might have on the Pennsylvania result?

Could be important, as Pennsylvania might be the closest-run contest if the race tightens from where the polls say it is - due to shifting opinions, comparative turnout, voter suppression or whatever.

 

Am I right in thinking that Trump basically has to win all the states listed (or others where he's further behind)?

Unfortunately, all apart from Pennsylvania still look within a small swing, even if he has to win them all - presumably why the 538 site still gives him 12% chance of winning.

 

C4 News also reported that the Supreme Court had ruled against an attempt to allow postal votes date-stamped but not counted before election day - from Wisconsin, I think, where he trails by a few percentage points?

On Florida, I saw a report suggesting that Trump's campaign had been successful in turning Floridian Latinos (esp. of Cuban parentage) against Biden by depicting him as a communist associated with Castro etc.

 

Strap yourselves in for mayhem of one sort or another, I expect, be that courts, social media accusations, riots or armed militias...... 

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The question could well be less 'can Biden win?' and more 'what happens when trump refuses to accept the results?' There was a very detailed/terrifying long read in The Atlantic going over this possibility. I think it should be free to read to most. Turns out the system really isn't built to counter the possibility of a sitting president refusing to concede.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

 

edit: I just reread the whole thing again from when it was first published a few weeks ago Oof, really worth a read if you have the time. Some extremely scary shit could go down between election and inauguration days.

Edited by what?
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1 hour ago, what? said:

The question could well be less 'can Biden win?' and more 'what happens when trump refuses to accept the results?' There was a very detailed/terrifying long read in The Atlantic going over this possibility. I think it should be free to read to most. Turns out the system really isn't built to counter the possibility of a sitting president refusing to concede.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

 

edit: I just reread the whole thing again from when it was first published a few weeks ago Oof, really worth a read if you have the time. Some extremely scary shit could go down between election and inauguration days.

 

Gave it a skim read - and it was a good read. Can imagine myself returning to that article over the next 2-3 months.

 

I'm assuming there'll be all sorts of shenanigans (legal & political manoeuvres, possible disruption of voting/counts, intimidation, allegations of fraudulent postal voting, abuse of electoral colleges etc.) - and possibly significant violence.

I also assume that Trump won't concede if he loses - would be nice to be proved wrong.

 

I still tend to assume, based on instinct more than knowledge of the US, that it will make a big difference whether the result is very close or not.

If Biden gets a clear win, I presume a lot more of the public would be outraged at any attempted abuse and that it would make it harder for the Supreme Court to help Trump - and more likely that forces of law and order might intervene to protect democracy?

If it's another knife-edge result, I'm guessing all bets are off - and that it would be easier for Trump to get away with contesting the outcome and possibly retaining power.

 

As for Biden, I presume he won't be in a rush to concede either, unless Trump unexpectedly wins big. Especially as it seems that late counts could favour the Democrats.

I suppose a lot will depend, too, on the outcome of the elections for the 2 houses of Congress.

 

We're living in extraordinary - and quite scary times, as you say.

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