US Presidential Election 2020

[StanSP]

8 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

I take it people realise, win or lose - Trump isn't going away from the political stage. 

 

And I don't mean him not giving up the Presidency. Even if he does leave the White House, he'd still exist as a political figure in the shadow of Biden and in theory, could run again in 4 years time.

Ever so slightly concerning he says he 'won't leave the White House quietly'. When it comes to Trump that could mean all manner of things, worryingly so...

[Bellend Sebastian]

19 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Ever so slightly concerning he says he 'won't leave the White House quietly'. When it comes to Trump that could mean all manner of things, worryingly so...

A massive quack of arse gas with every faltering step, is my guess as to what this means

[leicsmac]

And so we come to it at last - it's all happening tomorrow, so this will be the last swing state polling update I do. At the last count, over 93 million people have voted - Texas indeed has had more people vote early in 2020 than vote at all in 2016. I know what I'd like that to mean, but we won't know until the counting starts.

 

Iowa - Trump + 1.8% (1.2% swing to Trump over the weekend)

Texas - Trump + 1.3% (0.8% swing to Biden)

Ohio - Even (0.6% swing to Biden)

Georgia -  Biden + 0.8% (0.1% swing to Trump)

North Carolina - Biden +1.9% (0.2% swing to Biden)

Florida - Biden + 2.4% (0.5% swing to Biden)

Arizona - Biden + 3.1% (0.4% swing to Biden)

Pennsylvania - Biden + 5.3% (0.2% swing to Biden)

 

And, just for emphasis, Trump does need all of these bar Iowa to win.

Edited 2 November 2020 by leicsmac

[UPinCarolina]

A strange sort of grimness is setting in.

I feel simultaneously anxious and exhilarated; determined and dour.

[Buce]

1 minute ago, UPinCarolina said:

A strange sort of grimness is setting in.

I feel simultaneously anxious and exhilarated; determined and dour.

 

Fingers crossed that sanity prevails.

[Christoph]

17 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Fingers crossed that sanity prevails.

 

Yeah...about that. 

[Finnegan]

On 31/10/2020 at 11:15, StanSP said:

Ever so slightly concerning he says he 'won't leave the White House quietly'. When it comes to Trump that could mean all manner of things, worryingly so...

 

Trump is so full of bluster and has been for so long that people have started to actually believe it, even those that oppose him. Its made us all so paranoid that the world has gone crazy. 

 

You need to take a step back and relax. If he loses, he can tweet til his fingers bleed, come January he's out of there whether he likes it or not. 

 

Every dictator on the planet survives because they have the military in their pocket. Trump has a few racist police and some redneck wannabe brown shirts with no organisation and very little bravery that like targeting skinny teenage hippy liberals. 

 

Trump doesn't have the military, he's turned a lot of veterans off, he's pissed off most of the generals, he's at war with the FBI and CIA and most importantly - even in 2016 he never had the American majority. 

 

The silent majority of Americans aren't bigots, his core base are a fanatical, vocal minority that know full well they're a dying breed, they know every generation is getting more progressive, more open minded, more Liberal, they know that their hateful ideologies are on the ropes and like all cornered, threatened things they're kicking up a hell of a fuss. 

 

There may be riots, may be violence, may be protests, he probably will try and do everything in his power to cling on but come January he's out. And I tell you, the closer to that day, he'll get meeker and milder and quieter if he's got any common sense. People saying he won't be finished in politics. You're having a laugh? He'll be out of the country before Biden's inauguration desperately looking for one of his global dictator friends without an extradition treaty to take him in. 

 

That said, all of that is IF he loses. We've been here before only this time he's trying to commit election fraud on the grandest scale imaginable. The targeted attacks on the US postal service were insane but they went pretty much unchecked and they're currently being realised. So we'll see. 

 

There's zero guarantee of a Biden win. 

[StanSP]

3 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Trump is so full of bluster and has been for so long that people have started to actually believe it, even those that oppose him. Its made us all so paranoid that the world has gone crazy. 

 

You need to take a step back and relax. If he loses, he can tweet til his fingers bleed, come January he's out of there whether he likes it or not. 

 

Every dictator on the planet survives because they have the military in their pocket. Trump has a few racist police and some redneck wannabe brown shirts with no organisation and very little bravery that like targeting skinny teenage hippy liberals. 

 

Trump doesn't have the military, he's turned a lot of veterans off, he's pissed off most of the generals, he's at war with the FBI and CIA and most importantly - even in 2016 he never had the American majority. 

 

The silent majority of Americans aren't bigots, his core base are a fanatical, vocal minority that know full well they're a dying breed, they know every generation is getting more progressive, more open minded, more Liberal, they know that their hateful ideologies are on the ropes and like all cornered, threatened things they're kicking up a hell of a fuss. 

 

There may be riots, may be violence, may be protests, he probably will try and do everything in his power to cling on but come January he's out. And I tell you, the closer to that day, he'll get meeker and milder and quieter if he's got any common sense. People saying he won't be finished in politics. You're having a laugh? He'll be out of the country before Biden's inauguration desperately looking for one of his global dictator friends without an extradition treaty to take him in. 

 

That said, all of that is IF he loses. We've been here before only this time he's trying to commit election fraud on the grandest scale imaginable. The targeted attacks on the US postal service were insane but they went pretty much unchecked and they're currently being realised. So we'll see. 

 

There's zero guarantee of a Biden win. 

Of course I know he's full of bluster. I wasn't really saying he wasn't. Hardly a result of paranoia or anything like that.

My concern actually links to something you go on to say, the bit in bold.

 

Trump might piss off but his supporters won't. Hardly like riots, violence or protests and a mixture of all 3 is something to just dismiss as a small-time, minor thing. Look at how his supporters act/react to anything. His extreme supporters are ridiculous and deluded fanatics. They are enabled by his words (and weird tweets). Given these kind of supporters probably jizz over their guns and militia paraphernalia every night it's slightly worrying (to me) what they could do or what havoc and danger they could pose.

 

'if he's got any common sense'. Nah, he has none. Or very little at best, which is quite blatantly obvious. He'll hang around like a bad smell if he loses. 

[WigstonWanderer]

A broken parody of a democracy, a failing state, a better historian than myself might be able to put it into context. What parallels with the Roman Empire? Is Trump more like Hitler or Mussolini, or just a weird clown?

[Dunge]

As far as Trump’s concerned, there are two potential blows to face. The first has to come from the front, from his opponents. It has to come from the electorate voting for Biden.

 

But the second would potentially come from behind. If Trump gets defeated, but not just that, loses both the Senate and the House, the Republican Party itself has to decide what to do next. And right wing as they are, I’m not convinced they’re on board with public disorder and white supremacists. Has Trump made lots of friends in the party over the last five years, allies who would shake his hand and shield him, or has he made a ton of enemies waiting for their chance to land the metaphorical knife in the back? Losing to Biden could be just the start for him. It could be like Murder on the Orient Express once the rest of the Republican Party has finished with him.

[Lionator]

Trump knows he's toast, their internal polling will prove this. That's why he's already talking about calling in the lawyers. 

[Jattdogg]

The unknown for me and one of the reasons why i think he COULD pull it off is the amount of americans who love him but dont want to admit it to any pollster.

 

Its looking more grim for trump then last election but i just can't shake the feeling he will win. I really really hope he doesnt but preparing myself for ths worst case not because of him but because i have 0 faith in Americans right now. Please prove me wrong tomorrow

Edited 3 November 2020 by Jattdogg

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

The unknown for me and one of the reasons why i think he COULD pull it off is the amount of americans who love him but dont want to admit it to any pollster.

 

Its looking more grim for trump then last election but i just can't shake the feeling he will win. I really really hope he doesnt but preparing myself for ths worst case not because of him but because i have 0 faith in Americans right now. Please prove me wrong tomorrow

I think the pollsters have allowed for this, this time round?

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

It’s amazing how quickly the last 4 years have gone, time flies.

[Milo]

3 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I think the pollsters have allowed for this, this time round?

Also a lot less undecideds this time round. 
 

That was one of the things that skewed 2016 numbers. 

[Barron]

Have any of you actually seen the rallies for Biden?? 6 people and photographers.. Trump rallies are in the 10s of thousands.. 

 

People in the US have seen riots and violence all coming from the left..   this is definitely going to push more voters trumps way.  

 

Theres zero enthusiasm for Biden, just a matter of anyone but Trump.  

[twoleftfeet]

Its a bit different to the UK's election where you sort of got an inkling that the Tories were doing better than they were portrayed on the television coverage. I don't know which way it will swing but if you look on the basis that many businesses are boarding up ready for trouble and the fact that are the civil unrest in recent weeks/ months has predominantly come from the left. 

[urban.spaceman]

16 minutes ago, Barron said:

Have any of you actually seen the rallies for Biden?? 6 people and photographers.. Trump rallies are in the 10s of thousands.. 

 

People in the US have seen riots and violence all coming from the left..   this is definitely going to push more voters trumps way.  

 

Theres zero enthusiasm for Biden, just a matter of anyone but Trump.  

Well at least one of them is taking the virus seriously.

[Buce]

19 minutes ago, Barron said:

Have any of you actually seen the rallies for Biden?? 6 people and photographers.. Trump rallies are in the 10s of thousands.. 

 

People in the US have seen riots and violence all coming from the left..   this is definitely going to push more voters trumps way.  

 

Theres zero enthusiasm for Biden, just a matter of anyone but Trump.  

 

Hello, Barron.

 

Defending your father is very loyal, but you know we don't get a vote in the UK? Just as well, your father is a twat.

[leicsmac]

23 minutes ago, twoleftfeet said:

Its a bit different to the UK's election where you sort of got an inkling that the Tories were doing better than they were portrayed on the television coverage. I don't know which way it will swing but if you look on the basis that many businesses are boarding up ready for trouble and the fact that are the civil unrest in recent weeks/ months has predominantly come from the left. 

....is the conclusion here that Trump will likely win based on the intuition of shop owners, then? Interesting.

[Jon the Hat]

7 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

The unknown for me and one of the reasons why i think he COULD pull it off is the amount of americans who love him but dont want to admit it to any pollster.

 

Its looking more grim for trump then last election but i just can't shake the feeling he will win. I really really hope he doesnt but preparing myself for ths worst case not because of him but because i have 0 faith in Americans right now. Please prove me wrong tomorrow

Lets be honest here, the worst case is not Trump winning.  That gives us four more years of nonsense with some reasonable policy buried in there.

The worst case is months of legal wrangling after a tight win for Biden, during which Biden potentially looks more and more unfit to be president declining into farce, violence on the streets and the US taking it's eye off the ball internationally.

 

[ealingfox]

37 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Lets be honest here, the worst case is not Trump winning.  That gives us four more years of nonsense with some reasonable policy buried in there.

The worst case is months of legal wrangling after a tight win for Biden, during which Biden potentially looks more and more unfit to be president declining into farce, violence on the streets and the US taking it's eye off the ball internationally.

 

 

If, hypothetically, there is farce, violence on the streets and the US taking its eye off the ball internationally after a close win for Biden, that would be because Trump has refused to concede to a democratically-elected new leader. I am interested as to why that would be Biden's fault and how he is the one who is unfit in that scenario.

[leicsmac]

51 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Lets be honest here, the worst case is not Trump winning.  That gives us four more years of nonsense with some reasonable policy buried in there.

The worst case is months of legal wrangling after a tight win for Biden, during which Biden potentially looks more and more unfit to be president declining into farce, violence on the streets and the US taking it's eye off the ball internationally.

 

I'd mostly agree there, but I'd also add that the climate policy of a Trump administration has the potential to be worst case entirely by itself.

[Nalis]

Trump doesnt seem to have the bravado of the 2016 build up, or maybe we've just got used to it?

[bovril]

53 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Lets be honest here, the worst case is not Trump winning.  That gives us four more years of nonsense with some reasonable policy buried in there.

The worst case is months of legal wrangling after a tight win for Biden, during which Biden potentially looks more and more unfit to be president declining into farce, violence on the streets and the US taking it's eye off the ball internationally.

 

Another 4 years of Trump will be a calamity for the US and its allies.