The "do they mean us?" thread pt 3

[4everfox]

36 minutes ago, don_danbury said:

he has some sort of agenda against rodgers and leicester. odd fellow

Glad I'm not the only one who sees that. They make Sky Sports seem impartial.

[STUHILL]

1 hour ago, 4everfox said:

Rory Jennings is an absolute tool.

He was so biasedly against Rodgers for so long but even he knew he couldn't continue with that narrative anymore. 

 

I have a love/hate thing with their channel. Mostly hate. 

[STUHILL]

1 hour ago, KFS said:

Stopped listening to these after they all started getting on their respective high horses about how they’re better than Sky Sports… all the while ignoring Leicester and talking ‘big 6’ until

they’re blue in the face.

 

Laurence McKenna and Rory Jennings are insufferable.

They have a very unwarranted arrogance. Spend most the time declaring how great they are. 

[Yes]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions, they always seem to rate us below Arsenal and Spurs.

 

Edited 13 August 2021 by Yes

[OntarioFox]

2 hours ago, SecretPro said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58189010

We do have goals all over the team now, but I'm still fairly confident that if Vardy finds the net from open play early doors he will hit the ground running again. He's getting closer and closer - two good saves to be denied against dirty Real and then the one tipped onto the post in the Community Shield. Still looks sharp too IMO, though I know one or two here would disagree with that assesment.

 

Not concerned about a lack of goals with Daka coming in, Harvey back and Kelechi still looking sharp, but a run for Vards and we are genuinely scary. 

 

Is it gonna be pivotal to our season? Sorry Alan, but no. Last season wr finally freed those shackles and proved we're not reliant on him to be successful. But it will certainly help our case!

[SecretPro]

15 minutes ago, Yes said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions, they always seem to rate us below Arsenal and Spurs.

 

Arsenal and Tottenham

[Unabomber]

27 minutes ago, Yes said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions, they always seem to rate us below Arsenal and Spurs.

 

On what are they basing Arsenal and Spurs finishing above us? It can’t be squad, manager or signings that’s for certain. 

[Saxondale]

32 minutes ago, Yes said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions, they always seem to rate us below Arsenal and Spurs.

 

That is such an unimaginative prediction. Putting “””the big six”””” as top six finishers. The only place they’ve stuck their neck out is in saying Brentford will nick 17th place.

[OntarioFox]

45 minutes ago, Yes said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions, they always seem to rate us below Arsenal and Spurs.

 

Not being funny, but how on earth do they pluck these probabilities, and why doesn't each column add up to 100%?

[Kilworthfox]

20 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

On what are they basing Arsenal and Spurs finishing above us? It can’t be squad, manager or signings that’s for certain. 

 

Nostalgia is more important apparently 

[orangecity23]

Brighton are very high in that list considering they are permanent relegation battlers.

[Foxxed]

7 minutes ago, Kilworthfox said:

 

Nostalgia is more important apparently 

And fan base

[Xen]

13 minutes ago, OntarioFox said:

Not being funny, but how on earth do they pluck these probabilities, and why doesn't each column add up to 100%?

The columns don't add up to 100% because there's multiple teams who'll get relegated/reach UCL etc. In theory it should add up to 300%, 400*% and 100%. The 'win league' goes up to 95% before you account for all the <1%s so there could easily be rounding errors, and same for the other two.

*UCL might be slightly higher as in theory more than 4 clubs could make it, but I'm not sure if this model accounts for other qualification methods

 

As for how they calculate it, I believe at least some of it goes off of previous squad performances (possibly over 4-5 years, with weighting on more recent seasons), which would explain why Arsenal/Spurs are just above us. The actual percentages themselves come from them plugging in all those numbers (including attacking/defensive rankings) into a system which simulates the season over and over again, so once you take both into account its easy for slight inaccuracies in the inputs to end up skewing the figures slightly.

 

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the specific values and just focus on the broader 'bands' of clubs in similar positions. From this we'll be fighting it out with Arsenal/Spurs to be best of the rest, and potentially hoping to claw back one of the 'top 4' if they falter; an assessment which most of us could have made without the aid of complicated algorithms...

 

Edited 13 August 2021 by Xen

[Frank Large's Black Book]

1 minute ago, Xen said:

The columns don't add up to 100% because there's multiple teams who'll get relegated/reach UCL etc. In theory it should add up to 300%, 400*% and 100%. The 'win league' goes up to 95% before you account for all the <1%s so there could easily be rounding errors, and same for the other two.

 

As for how they calculate it, I believe at least some of it goes off of previous squad performances (possibly over 4-5 years, with weighting on more recent seasons), which would explain why Arsenal/Spurs are just above us. The actual percentages themselves come from them plugging in all those numbers (including attacking/defensive rankings) into a system which simulates the season over and over again, so once you take both into account its easy for slight inaccuracies in the inputs to end up skewing the figures slightly.

 

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the specific values and just focus on the broader 'bands' of clubs in similar positions. From this we'll be fighting it out with Arsenal/Spurs to be best of the rest, and potentially hoping to claw back one of the 'top 4' if they falter; an assessment which most of us could have made without the aid of complicated algorithms...

 

Or as he's the other side of the Atlantic, just say "Do the math".

 

ps - can someone explain why it's math not maths - Ontario?

[Unabomber]

4 hours ago, Koke said:

The lads on the Kick Off all got us finishing 5th again, which is a fair prediction. Actually, one or two of of them got us 4th but I think that's more of a hatred fot their rivals rather than belief in Leicester. 

 

 

Wow that Rory guy is a right twat. Rodgers wins the FA Cup and still doesn’t go up in his expectations yet he also says he thinks FA Cup is a better achievement than top 4.

[Yes]

Decided to give that Sky Sports “The Overlap Live” stuff a listen and over 2 hours we barely even got a mention, it’s supposed to be a Premier League preview but they spent the first hour talking about the big 6, the second hour they spent a bit of time talking about Everton, Leeds, Newcaslte and Palace (managed by a fan favourite of a big 6 club) before reverting it back to big 6 talk. 
 

I should know better by now but to give so little mention to the FA Cup holders and 5th best team in the country is just downright bizarre, I don’t usually buy into the narrative they don’t like us and whatever but they sure have their favourites.

[Buce]

20 minutes ago, Frank Large&#x27;s Black Book said:

Or as he's the other side of the Atlantic, just say "Do the math".

 

ps - can someone explain why it's math not maths - Ontario?

 

https://www.thesaurus.com/e/grammar/math-vs-maths/

[KingsX]

1 hour ago, Yes said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions, they always seem to rate us below Arsenal and Spurs.

 

 

fivethirtyeight’s annual pre-season reset factors in only two things: existing club ratings, and squad value.

 

Before a season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt. We’ve found that a team’s market value — relative to their league’s average value — is strongly correlated with its end-of-season SPI rating. As a season plays out, a team’s ratings are adjusted after every match based on its performance in that match and the strength of its opponent.

 

In this year’s pre-season ranking, we are suffering, and Arsenal overrated, because of the clubs’ respective late-season runs -- more recent results are the most heavily weighted.  It’s purely results based.  Injuries, etc are not factored in.

 

LCFC dropped to #26 (our lowest ranking in nearly two years) by the end of last season.  Our squad value rising to world #15 has bumped us back up, but only three notches. 

 

euroclubindex have us 20th in Europe, six (!) spots below Arsenal.

[lcfc_forever]

1 hour ago, KingsX said:

 

fivethirtyeight’s annual pre-season reset factors in only two things: existing club ratings, and squad value.

 

Before a season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt. We’ve found that a team’s market value — relative to their league’s average value — is strongly correlated with its end-of-season SPI rating. As a season plays out, a team’s ratings are adjusted after every match based on its performance in that match and the strength of its opponent.

 

In this year’s pre-season ranking, we are suffering, and Arsenal overrated, because of the clubs’ respective late-season runs -- more recent results are the most heavily weighted.  It’s purely results based.  Injuries, etc are not factored in.

 

LCFC dropped to #26 (our lowest ranking in nearly two years) by the end of last season.  Our squad value rising to world #15 has bumped us back up, but only three notches. 

 

euroclubindex have us 20th in Europe, six (!) spots below Arsenal.

Soccernomics is a great read and suggests that the best predictor is the wage bill. Spending is a decent predictor but wage bill is better as football is quite efficient in that regard - the better the player, the more they tend to be paid. 

 

I'd think we now have around 7th or 8th highest wage bill - with the 'so-called big six' followed by perhaps Everton. 

 

Shows how well we've done under Rodgers and over-achieved considerably. 

 

I wouldn't take too much offence to these predictions (although the methodology of the five-thirty-eight model is questionable) as it just highlights how much better we're doing than the resources at our disposal. 

[4everfox]

4 hours ago, STUHILL said:

He was so biasedly against Rodgers for so long but even he knew he couldn't continue with that narrative anymore. 

 

I have a love/hate thing with their channel. Mostly hate. 

That channel has gone massively downhill since Hugh Wizzy isn't on there anymore, he was their voice of reason and a generally enjoyable person to listen to on all things football.

[KingsX]

2 hours ago, lcfc_forever said:

Soccernomics is a great read and suggests that the best predictor is the wage bill. Spending is a decent predictor but wage bill is better as football is quite efficient in that regard - the better the player, the more they tend to be paid. 

 

I'd think we now have around 7th or 8th highest wage bill - with the 'so-called big six' followed by perhaps Everton. 

 

Shows how well we've done under Rodgers and over-achieved considerably. 

 

I wouldn't take too much offence to these predictions (although the methodology of the five-thirty-eight model is questionable) as it just highlights how much better we're doing than the resources at our disposal. 

 

"Squad value" does not equate to "spending on transfers" -- Everton spend more, while we build more value, for one example.

 

No idea why fivethirtyeight use squad value, given how wage bills correlate so closely with success (table position).  One problem is that neither number is out there in the public domain.  Maybe they figure transfermarkt's squad values (based on reported prices, adjusted by a "panel of experts") are closer to reality than player wages, which are often an opaque mix of wages, fees and incentives ...?

 

Anyway, it's just figuring out how to program a computer by throwing esoteric stats against the wall and seeing what sticks.

   - for fivethirtyeight: which combination of statistics best predicts who wins the match and who finishes higher?  (answer: squad value, results, xG and "adjusted goals")

   - for Leicester City Football Club: which combination of stats best predicts who will perform best and fulfill our needs at a given position?  (answer: proprietary)

 

Some folks don't realize these statistical rankings are not the same as weekly panel votes such as American "power rankings".  Once it's decided which inputs to use, there's no further human input until the algorithms are changed.

Edited 13 August 2021 by KingsX

[CosbehFox]

5 hours ago, Yes said:

Decided to give that Sky Sports “The Overlap Live” stuff a listen and over 2 hours we barely even got a mention, it’s supposed to be a Premier League preview but they spent the first hour talking about the big 6, the second hour they spent a bit of time talking about Everton, Leeds, Newcaslte and Palace (managed by a fan favourite of a big 6 club) before reverting it back to big 6 talk. 
 

I should know better by now but to give so little mention to the FA Cup holders and 5th best team in the country is just downright bizarre, I don’t usually buy into the narrative they don’t like us and whatever but they sure have their favourites.

Literally only team not mentioned on Totally Football podcast’s preview 

[An Sionnach]

4 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Literally only team not mentioned on Totally Football podcast’s preview 

Leicester has always been an invisible city, long before football. Few Londoners could tell you exactly where it is apart from up north somewhere. The premiership win put us on the map but old habits die hard. 

[Swalshed]

56 minutes ago, An Sionnach said:

Leicester has always been an invisible city, long before football. Few Londoners could tell you exactly where it is apart from up north somewhere. The premiership win put us on the map but old habits die hard. 

Semper eadem

[Langston]

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Literally only team not mentioned on Totally Football podcast’s preview 

 

That podcast has gone to shit. Football League and Euro ones still half decent though.