2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[turlo]

10 minutes ago, Lichfieldfox. said:

I'm nuts then. Does anyone really think Liverpool will gain 8 more points than us in next 5 games? Statistically we have a far better chance of getting ahead of Man Utd especially if they lose to Liverpool and us.

If we fail to get 6 points from Southampton and Newcastle and then Liverpool beat Man Utd then yes I could see us both ending up on 69 points and it going down to goal difference. Liverpool getting a draw would be the best result as far as I'm concerned, as it pretty much counts Liverpool out of the top 4 race and keeps Man Utd within our sights. . 

[gw_leics772]

1 hour ago, Gerard said:

The good thing about that table is it can never get any worse and can only improve. 

Yours maybe, I've taken it to a whole new level. You owe me an hour of my life!

 

**** it, I'd have only wasted it. 🤪

[gw_leics772]

1 hour ago, nnfox said:

At the end of the day we can only affect our own results.  If we beat Southampton then honestly I'm not that bothered by the Liverpool result.  If we lose, then that's slightly different.  I'd happily take Utd and Liverpool drawing right now.

 

I still think any two wins will probably be enough.  One win might even do it, but regardless, we have a massive say in who qualifies given that we play Chelsea and Spurs.

 

I think finishing 2nd in the league in this era would be phenomenal.  Coupled with an FA Cup final, it's epic.

If you ignore man city who have spent the world, we are 1 game away from the double.

 

(Ignore the super league 6 and we've already done the double. Happy days!)

[jmono84]

2 hours ago, Gerard said:

I see the table like this: our points total versus our opponents maximum total. Every time we get a result I can add points to our total and every time our opponents drop points I'll take it off their maximum possible points.

 

Chelsea 73

West Ham 70

--------------------------

Everton 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

Leeds 62

Leicester 62

 

If people are cheering on Liverpool away at Man Utd and they win then Liverpool are certainly equipped to win their last four which leaves us needing two wins and two draws from our last five games. It's absolutely mental that anyone wants Liverpool to win at Man Utd and I can only surmise they have no grasp of the situation..

Need to get Villa in there. They have 6 games remaining and could get to 63pts 😜😜

[Gerard]

12 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

Love how people seem to think West Ham, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton are going to win the last 5.

 

Only West Ham have managed to win 5 in the last 10

 

Spur have won 5 in the last 11

 

Everton have won 5 in the last 12

 

Liverpool have won 5 in the last 13

 

 

It's not that people think they will, it's the possibility.

 

People think we can chase Man Utd down who have a 5pt lead on us but think we can't be caught by 4 teams from 5th-8th behind us. There is little value in the places between 2nd & 4th but the drop off is massive from 4th to 5th. 

 

Anyone who puts more value on us finishing 2nd than fears finishing 5th is a moron IMO. They have absolutely no concept of risk/reward.

[Gerard]

3 minutes ago, jmono84 said:

Need to get Villa in there. They have 6 games remaining and could get to 63pts 😜😜

 

Didn't look that far down. 

 

Chelsea 73

West Ham 70

--------------------------

Everton 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

Aston Villa 63

Leeds 62

Leicester 62

[Guest Danny Clender]

12 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

Love how people seem to think West Ham, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton are going to win the last 5.

 

Only West Ham have managed to win 5 in the last 10

 

Spur have won 5 in the last 11

 

Everton have won 5 in the last 12

 

Liverpool have won 5 in the last 13

 

It's called paranoia and the law of the sod. 

 

Having said that, there are grounds for pessimism considering;

 

West Ham - similar situation to us, they have a slightly lower chance than us for top 4, but based on their current position and the chance they have now, they could feasibly string 5 wins together. 

 

Spurs - New manager bounce, Kane not injured and in Gareth Bale they have a player that can deliver. 

 

Everton - Yes.  

 

Liverpool - Current champions, world class set up, trying everything to get there, easiest potential that everything sorts itself out and they finish with 5 wins. I see Liverpool as the team we are competing with. 

[Gerard]

Also just looking at the implied chances on Betfair of finishing 2nd compared to finishing 5th or lower

 

2nd we have a 9% chance

5th we have an 18% chance

 

So we're twice as likely to finish outside the top as we have of second but still the uninformed would rather risk that by cheering on Liverpool at the weekend despite the prize for finishing 3rd or 4th compared to 2nd or 5th is massive. 

[deanolegend1989]

43 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

If Liverpool beat Man Utd their remaining fixtures are:

 

Southampton & Palace at home.

West Brom & Burnley away.

 

They could quite feasibly win all of those and force us to get 70pts as their GD would likely be superior to ours.

 

We then have to W2, D2, L1 from:

 

Newcastle & Tottenham at home.

Southampton, Man Utd & Chelsea away.

 

IMO you fail to grasp the situation because you've put more value on finishing 2nd than you realise the chances of finishing 5th. If Liverpool win all their games then we have little room for error in our fixtures and maybe forced to get a result away at Man Utd or Chelsea. You can't sniff the danger and are oblivious to what could be lying ahead.

Absolutely spot on. Liverpool will be hugely dangerous if they beat Man U. It’s imperative that they drop points I think. If they win, as you say we’ll be forced to get 70 potentially.

We need to at the least match them this weekend otherwise we’ll be on the back foot again.

We need to win and hope they at least draw to get a situation where we have 65 and they can max get 67. In this situation we’d have 1 foot there, anything else will force us under huge pressure. This weekend could be the deciding factor.

[coolhandfox]

26 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

It's not that people think they will, it's the possibility.

So is us winning the double mathematically at the moment.

 

Quote

 

People think we can chase Man Utd down who have a 5pt lead on us but think we can't be caught by 4 teams from 5th-8th behind us. There is little value in the places between 2nd & 4th but the drop off is massive from 4th to 5th. 

 

Anyone who puts more value on us finishing 2nd than fears finishing 5th is a moron IMO. They have absolutely no concept of risk/reward.

I'm in the camp of Man U giving Liverpool a good shoeing 

Edited 28 April 2021 by coolhandfox

[gw_leics772]

20 minutes ago, Gerard said:

Also just looking at the implied chances on Betfair of finishing 2nd compared to finishing 5th or lower

 

2nd we have a 9% chance

5th we have an 18% chance

 

So we're twice as likely to finish outside the top as we have of second but still the uninformed would rather risk that by cheering on Liverpool at the weekend despite the prize for finishing 3rd or 4th compared to 2nd or 5th is massive. 

Also, am I right in saying that if we finished 2nd and any of man u, liverpool and chelsea finish 3rd or 4th, they would get better seeding due to bastard coefficients?

 

Be nice to get 2nd, but if I'm right, in the grand scheme of things, worth the square root of **** all.

Edited 28 April 2021 by gw_leics772
Spelling spacker

[gw_leics772]

17 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

 This weekend could be the deciding factor.

Again. 

 

I agree and can see more coming.

 

Quite stressful being half decent ain't it.

[Gerard]

Just now, gw_leics772 said:

Also, am I right in saying that if we go ished 2nd and any of man u, liverpool and chelsea finish 3rd or 4th, they would get better seeding due to bastard coefficients?

 

Be nice to get 2nd, but if I'm right, in the grand scheme of things, worth the square root of **** all.

 

Yes, you only get Pot 1 if you win but the rest of the qualifiers are judged by coefficient.

 

It's worth about £2m per place on league position and a CL campaign is worth about £50m on average.

 

So we have some people who want 2nd for the kudos of finishing runner up or first loser for £4m in tangible prizes and are prepared to risk losing £50m+ and the credibility of having a CL place and what that will achieve in keeping players at the club and signing new ones. 

[Lineker's Lugs]

5 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Yes, you only get Pot 1 if you win but the rest of the qualifiers are judged by coefficient.

 

It's worth about £2m per place on league position and a CL campaign is worth about £50m on average.

 

So we have some people who want 2nd for the kudos of finishing runner up or first loser for £4m in tangible prizes and are prepared to risk losing £50m+ and the credibility of having a CL place and what that will achieve in keeping players at the club and signing new ones. 

You’re preaching to the choir as far as I’m concerned, but you’ve argued the point excellently.  

 

[nnfox]

1 hour ago, Gerard said:

 

Yes, you only get Pot 1 if you win but the rest of the qualifiers are judged by coefficient.

 

It's worth about £2m per place on league position and a CL campaign is worth about £50m on average.

 

So we have some people who want 2nd for the kudos of finishing runner up or first loser for £4m in tangible prizes and are prepared to risk losing £50m+ and the credibility of having a CL place and what that will achieve in keeping players at the club and signing new ones. 

It doesn't work like that though.  I'd love to finish second and I absolutely don't want to finish 5th, but there isn't a choice to make because all we can do is play our games and see where we end up.  I'm not saying, and nobody is saying, we have to make a choice between 2nd or 5th.  It isn't like we can say that we'll do x, y and z and finish 2nd, but do a, b and c to guarantee 4th - and have to decide which way we go. 

 

There are 5 teams below us that are trying to win all their games.  We can do nothing about it.  We just need to look after our own results and the points will take care of themselves.

The way some people go on in here is as if we only have two games left this season and are fully expecting to lose our final three.

[gw_leics772]

1 hour ago, Gerard said:

 

Yes, you only get Pot 1 if you win but the rest of the qualifiers are judged by coefficient.

 

It's worth about £2m per place on league position and a CL campaign is worth about £50m on average.

 

So we have some people who want 2nd for the kudos of finishing runner up or first loser for £4m in tangible prizes and are prepared to risk losing £50m+ and the credibility of having a CL place and what that will achieve in keeping players at the club and signing new ones. 

Thanks.

 

And as for the rest, each to their own...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(****ing nutters😀🤪😱)

[Gerard]

6 minutes ago, nnfox said:

It doesn't work like that though.  I'd love to finish second and I absolutely don't want to finish 5th, but there isn't a choice to make because all we can do is play our games and see where we end up.  I'm not saying, and nobody is saying, we have to make a choice between 2nd or 5th.  It isn't like we can say that we'll do x, y and z and finish 2nd, but do a, b and c to guarantee 4th - and have to decide which way we go. 

 

There are 5 teams below us that are trying to win all their games.  We can do nothing about it.  We just need to look after our own results and the points will take care of themselves.

 

The way some people go on in here is as if we only have two games left this season and are fully expecting to lose our final three.

 

Of course and it makes no difference to the result that some will cheers on Liverpool versus Man Utd whilst those with their fingers on the pulse will cheer on Man Utd.

 

My point is those who value second ahead of not finishing 5th are clueless.

 

 

[Ric Flair]

2 hours ago, deanolegend1989 said:

Absolutely spot on. Liverpool will be hugely dangerous if they beat Man U. It’s imperative that they drop points I think. If they win, as you say we’ll be forced to get 70 potentially.

We need to at the least match them this weekend otherwise we’ll be on the back foot again.

We need to win and hope they at least draw to get a situation where we have 65 and they can max get 67. In this situation we’d have 1 foot there, anything else will force us under huge pressure. This weekend could be the deciding factor.

The saving grace about Liverpool is they have seemingly lost form yet again against quote average opposition and seem like they self destruct with minutes to go if they are winning. Something is seriously wrong. You never know, beating their bitter old rivals at Old Trafford on Sunday could spark a mini run of 5 wins but those 2 draws from winning positions with only a few mins or even seconds to go in both matches is beggars belief.

[STEVIE B]

Most seem to see Liverpool as the ones to stop us making the top 4. 

Chelsea are under pressure too. They have a tough run-in, Champions League & the Cup Final. 

They should be looking over their shoulders more than we are. 

Edited 28 April 2021 by STEVIE B

[nnfox]

12 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Of course and it makes no difference to the result that some will cheers on Liverpool versus Man Utd whilst those with their fingers on the pulse will cheer on Man Utd.

 

My point is those who value second ahead of not finishing 5th are clueless.

 

 

Literally nobody has said that.

[Gerard]

1 minute ago, nnfox said:

Literally nobody has said that.

 

People have said they want Liverpool to beat Man Utd this weekend which obviously infers that gambling top four to finish second is a risk worth taking.

[deanolegend1989]

7 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

The saving grace about Liverpool is they have seemingly lost form yet again against quote average opposition and seem like they self destruct with minutes to go if they are winning. Something is seriously wrong. You never know, beating their bitter old rivals at Old Trafford on Sunday could spark a mini run of 5 wins but those 2 draws from winning positions with only a few mins or even seconds to go in both matches is beggars belief.

I agree that they arnt flowing and it isn’t certain they will win the 4 games after Man Utd. However Newcastle are on form and Leeds are a tough team capable, so it’s not quite as much of a shock as these last 4.

I mean other than Burnley(A) I can’t see how they can drop points in those , even off form. Especially with the confidence of a win at Okd Trafford and knowing our last 3 games.

Thats why I feel it’s super important that they drop points at Old Trafford, otherwise I fear they will get to 69 and make it tough for us.

West ham and Everton are not going to get more than 68 at absolute best and because of their goal difference we will finish above them 99% of the time I think.

Liverpool are the only genuine threat I think.

 

Win vs Saints puts pressure on Liverpool to have to win at Old Trafford to have a realistic chance, which in turn would put pressure and maybe a lack of belief in them which in turn would cause them to subconsciously drop off. If we drop points vs Saints they will fancy it and IF they then won at Old Trafford and closed it to 5/6 points then they would seriously fancy it and we might be forced to beat Spurs and Newcastle.

[deanolegend1989]

3 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

People have said they want Liverpool to beat Man Utd this weekend which obviously infers that gambling top four to finish second is a risk worth taking.

No one surely wants that really though. I hate Man Utd more than any club, yet this weekend I’ll be celebrating hard if Utd win.

I can see lots of positives in a draw and wouldn’t be bothered that much but Liverpool winning is 100% bad.

I’m not sure which I’d prefer but it’s an ‘anything but Liverpool game’.

[Silva Fox]

7 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

No one surely wants that really though. I hate Man Utd more than any club, yet this weekend I’ll be celebrating hard if Utd win.

I can see lots of positives in a draw and wouldn’t be bothered that much but Liverpool winning is 100% bad.

I’m not sure which I’d prefer but it’s an ‘anything but Liverpool game’.

My head agrees with you but my heart doesn't! 

[Gerard]

6 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

No one surely wants that really though. I hate Man Utd more than any club, yet this weekend I’ll be celebrating hard if Utd win.

I can see lots of positives in a draw and wouldn’t be bothered that much but Liverpool winning is 100% bad.

I’m not sure which I’d prefer but it’s an ‘anything but Liverpool game’.

 

More than one has said it, a few in fact.

 

Liverpool drawing would be massive as it leave us needing two wins or one win and three draws. Looking at the fixture list we don't want to be going into the last three games with less than a 7pt lead.