2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[foxfan92]

8 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Sorry if this has been mentioned already but if we finish 4th and Arsenal win the Europa league and Chelsea win the champions league and finish outside the top four then we will need to finish at least third to qualify

If we finish 4th how can we finish at least 3rd?

[Nalis]

Did another predictor this morning and ended up with this, combined form and the odd surprise result:

 

 

Not sure how I end up with us 3rd and West Ham 4th but I'd take it! 

Edited 30 April 2021 by Nalis

[Spiritwalker]

2 hours ago, Andrew said:

Sorry if this has been mentioned already but if we finish 4th and Arsenal win the Europa league and Chelsea win the champions league and finish outside the top four then we will need to finish at least third to qualify

This would only slightly affect our chances, essentially it would take Chelsea out of the equation and mean we 

have to finish above the rest. Chelsea will most likely finish above the others anyway in which case it will make

no difference.

[Gerard]

3 hours ago, Nalis said:

Did another predictor this morning and ended up with this, combined form and the odd surprise result:

 

 

Not sure how I end up with us 3rd and West Ham 4th but I'd take it! 

 

Those predictors fall down as you always pick the obvious result but invariably it doesn't end up that like.

 

You have both West Ham and Liverpool winning four of their last five.

If you did one for next season you'd have Man City on 110pts and if Barnsley got promoted they'd have about 10pts. 

 

A more accurate way to judge is to take the mid point on the spreads which has us 3rd and 4.5pts better than Liverpool in 5th.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

[Danizen]

So nervous for this run in but we're in a good position. 6 points from Southampton and Newcastle would go a long way if we can manage it then a point at Stamford Bridge to keep Chelsea at bay should be about enough. 

 

Obviously, we know we can get results against Man U and Spurs, too.

 

After last year, I'm bricking it.

[gw_leics772]

Not sure where to put this but know that somebody confirmed my understanding that only 1st place gets seeded and 2nd to 4th are all done on coefficients so likely a hard group. But just read this:-

 

"Finishing in the top four will have a massively positive impact on their short-term future. If Leicester finish outside the top two, they will go into next season’s Champions League unseeded but still stand to receive at least £40m, with the promise of further funds if they progress to the knockout stages."

 

In this:- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/04/30/southampton-vs-leicester-city-premier-league-live-score-latest/

 

And now I'm confused again. Pretty sure they are wrong but any more insight gratefully received as my googling doesn't even confirm my original thoughts!

 

Thanks

 

[Ric Flair]

Plenty of people predicting we lose those last 3 games but win these next 2. If we get to 68 points with 3 games to go and are pretty much qualified there is no way we lose all 3.

[enmac]

On 28/04/2021 at 00:59, UpTheLeagueFox said:

With five games to go:

 

LAST SEASON: Third place. Three points clear over fifth place (Man Utd, who'd won 6 in 8) with a squad being pulled to pieces and performances/results on the slide.

THIS SEASON: Third place. Seven points clear over fifth place (West Ham, who've lost their last 2), in form and with almost a fully fit squad

 

Looking good  

We have the same number of points as we had last season after 38 games. We eventually ended 4 points behind 4th spot. On this "logic" we need 5 more points. 

I know that is nonsense. 

[jeffschlupp]

13 minutes ago, gw_leics772 said:

Not sure where to put this but know that somebody confirmed my understanding that only 1st place gets seeded and 2nd to 4th are all done on coefficients so likely a hard group. But just read this:-

 

"Finishing in the top four will have a massively positive impact on their short-term future. If Leicester finish outside the top two, they will go into next season’s Champions League unseeded but still stand to receive at least £40m, with the promise of further funds if they progress to the knockout stages."

 

In this:- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/04/30/southampton-vs-leicester-city-premier-league-live-score-latest/

 

And now I'm confused again. Pretty sure they are wrong but any more insight gratefully received as my googling doesn't even confirm my original thoughts!

 

Thanks

 

Yep, that is wrong. As you say, 2nd-4th is unseeded. Pot 1 contains the winners of the top 6/7 leagues + EL winners + CL winners, the rest are done by coefficient.

[Bert]

1 hour ago, Danizen said:

So nervous for this run in but we're in a good position. 6 points from Southampton and Newcastle would go a long way if we can manage it then a point at Stamford Bridge to keep Chelsea at bay should be about enough. 

 

Obviously, we know we can get results against Man U and Spurs, too.

 

After last year, I'm bricking it.

6 points from the next two games secures it. 

[enmac]

Purely hypothetically, could a situation arise where it is in our interests to lose the last game of the season against Chelsea so that they finish in the top 4 which prevents them having to qualify for a CL spot by winning the CL? 

If so, what is the penalty for deliberately losing a game? 

[sheffield_fox]

3 minutes ago, enmac said:

Purely hypothetically, could a situation arise where it is in our interests to lose the last game of the season against Chelsea so that they finish in the top 4 which prevents them having to qualify for a CL spot by winning the CL? 

If so, what is the penalty for deliberately losing a game? 

I don't know but that's a fantastic question

[Ric Flair]

5 minutes ago, enmac said:

Purely hypothetically, could a situation arise where it is in our interests to lose the last game of the season against Chelsea so that they finish in the top 4 which prevents them having to qualify for a CL spot by winning the CL? 

If so, what is the penalty for deliberately losing a game? 

We don't play them last game of the season

[Rsswmu]

7 minutes ago, enmac said:

Purely hypothetically, could a situation arise where it is in our interests to lose the last game of the season against Chelsea so that they finish in the top 4 which prevents them having to qualify for a CL spot by winning the CL? 

If so, what is the penalty for deliberately losing a game? 

Don’t think that would be possible. Because for us to need them to win they would need to jump a team in 4th which means we would be in 3rd. And a loss would have to keep us above said team to stay 4th. So a win or draw would also keep us above that team. Nevertheless we play spurs the last game Chelsea second to last so it’s a moot point.

Edited 30 April 2021 by Rsswmu

[Steve Earle]

Just my opinion, but I think there's too much optimism on here about the next two games (4 points more likely than 6 maybe?) and too much pessimism about the last three (we'll probably get 2-5 points from those). 6 points in total would see us very squeaky, 7 or 8 would be just about certain. I'd love to be wrong! 6 points from the next two and we're practically home and hosed.

[enmac]

5 minutes ago, sheffield_fox said:

I don't know but that's a fantastic question

Found this. No idea how "expert" it is:

 

I think you're mixing two different issues together.

1. Deliberately losing the game is unsportsmanlike behavior, puts the intended third team under unjust competition conditions and will be punished by the regulatory body, very possibly severely (point deduction and even relegation). Scoring a deliberate own goal is one of such an obvious behavior.

2. Fielding an under-strength team, on the other hand, is allowed. However, in most cases it's not because the team want to deliberately lose the game. It's because of the tight schedule and thus the need to rest key players and rotate the squad. This is why a team has 25 players registered, not 18.

[SexyGammonFox]

13 minutes ago, Rsswmu said:

Don’t think that would be possible. Because for us to need them to win they would need to jump a team in 4th which means we would be in 3rd. And a loss would have to keep us above said team to stay 4th. So a win or draw would also keep us above that team. Nevertheless we play spurs the last game Chelsea second to last so it’s a moot point.

 

 

Edited 30 April 2021 by SexyGammonFox

[Ric Flair]

Just now, Steve Earle said:

Just my opinion, but I think there's too much optimism on here about the next two games (4 points more likely than 6 maybe?) and too much pessimism about the last three (we'll probably get 2-5 points from those). 6 points in total would see us very squeaky, 7 or 8 would be just about certain. I'd love to be wrong! 6 points from the next two and we're practically home and hosed.

This is down to impatience of wanting to know the outcome of our fate. These next 2 games are palatable whereas the final 3 a horrible prospect and therefore to make ourselves feel better we have to keep saying that win these next 2 and we'll be fine.

 

It's hard to stay in the moment, I've found this very difficult the older I get with Leicester. That title win was torture, I'm still annoyed with myself for failing to soak up the moments prior to it being confirmed. It was agony from Christmas to the start of May.

[enmac]

6 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

We don't play them last game of the season

But I thought the game had been postponed because of the Cup? 

[Ric Flair]

2 minutes ago, SexyGammonFox said:

3rd West Ham 69 points

4th Leicester 68 points

5th Chelsea 67 points

 

Is I believe the hypothetical situation referred to.

 

But letting them win would mean we don't get CL football anyway as we'd then be 5th? 

 

As I and others have already said, we don't play Chelsea last game of the season so it's pointless.

[Ric Flair]

Just now, enmac said:

But I thought the game had been postponed because of the Cup? 

Yes but all penultimate fixtures in the PL (37th game) are pushed back to the midweek after the cup final. The 38th game is Spurs.

[SexyGammonFox]

5 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

But letting them win would mean we don't get CL football anyway as we'd then be 5th? 

 

As I and others have already said, we don't play Chelsea last game of the season so it's pointless.

True. I realised what I had written was complete bollocks as soon as I hit submit!

[Rsswmu]

3 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Yes but all penultimate fixtures in the PL (37th game) are pushed back to the midweek after the cup final. The 38th game is Spurs.

Correct. Just a little bit of info to supplement. 38th game week is always the final game week. Games are played concurrently, see West Germany v Austria 1982 for a hint on why this may happen.

[filthyfox]

SIX.... MORE... POINTS! That is all we need!

 

 

[Jobyfox]

6 hours ago, Andrew said:

Sorry if this has been mentioned already but if we finish 4th and Arsenal win the Europa league and Chelsea win the champions league and finish outside the top four then we will need to finish at least third to qualify

Shhhh ...... nobody had mentioned that ....