2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Ric Flair]

31 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

I agree that they arnt flowing and it isn’t certain they will win the 4 games after Man Utd. However Newcastle are on form and Leeds are a tough team capable, so it’s not quite as much of a shock as these last 4.

I mean other than Burnley(A) I can’t see how they can drop points in those , even off form. Especially with the confidence of a win at Okd Trafford and knowing our last 3 games.

Thats why I feel it’s super important that they drop points at Old Trafford, otherwise I fear they will get to 69 and make it tough for us.

West ham and Everton are not going to get more than 68 at absolute best and because of their goal difference we will finish above them 99% of the time I think.

Liverpool are the only genuine threat I think.

 

Win vs Saints puts pressure on Liverpool to have to win at Old Trafford to have a realistic chance, which in turn would put pressure and maybe a lack of belief in them which in turn would cause them to subconsciously drop off. If we drop points vs Saints they will fancy it and IF they then won at Old Trafford and closed it to 5/6 points then they would seriously fancy it and we might be forced to beat Spurs and Newcastle.

I'm sorry but conceding goals in both games with minutes or seconds to spare is absolutely scandalous and shows the serious self implosion they currently have. Newcastle scored twice in 2 minutes vs them.

[NewEnglandFox]

I want a Man U result to hold Liverpool down. That is the perverse incentive of the finish 2nd folks. To have Man U slip, especially here wouldn't just allow us to catch up to them, but it also allows Liverpool to close in from behind. But I haven't been reading every post so I haven't seen the explicit pro-Liverpool posts.

 

You can say there are 20 teams in this league and 20 finishing positions but the reality of it is you can only be champions, champions league, Europa, survive or relegated. I am only certain of 3 of our finishing positions the last 7 seasons. Where did we finish in the great escape season? Where did we finish the champions league season? It's not really about finishing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th is it?

Edited 28 April 2021 by NewEnglandFox

[Ric Flair]

I will cheer a Man Utd win this weekend like I cheered that Iheanacho goal on Monday night.

[fuchsntf]

6 hours ago, Gerard said:

 

Will you still be cheering on Liverpool if we fail to beat Southampton?

 

It's crazy to put more value on second than it is on securing top four. In my book you either win it or are nowhere, who cares who finished runner up, people only remember the winners.

 

I made the analogy to my pal last night for those putting more value on 2nd at the expense of finishing 5th.  It's like having £900 in your pocket but because some people want a £1,000 they're prepared to spin a coin and risk that £900 to win the extra £100 on a very poor value bet.

 

Finishing 2nd to 3rd or 4th isn't a big drop off in terms of value to the club

Finishing 4th instead of 5th is absolutely massive to the club.present

But at  present all is open....so lets dream ..!!

unlike some if all goes Tits up...As many would know, I will be the last who would go into meltdown & start shouting & Spitting out negative waves..

Within the season a fan can Dream & chase the hardest aspirations.....

I prefer to sit back & twiddle with the permatations    for the ..fun.!!..

Its our Team that gives us the end result, Not fans picking or Argueing the toss over the positive / negative outcome..

 

The difference with me, no matter what happens, with the situation we found ourselves in & major issues.....on whole Team fitness

I dont think but Bloody know...the Team is doing Bloody well, & pulling the guts out of the Top 6 Phenomenen & nonsense..

But at present we are challenging and just a threat...We dont want to just Knock on  the door , Why Not Knock the Bloody Thing down,&

 p*ss  over Manutd

If not...nice try.... then leave it at that.... No tears..!

Rather look up & chase, than look over the Shoulder & start Shittng oneself.....

 

All Teams are stumbling, lets Hope its Leicester who can find their feet quicker & do the fan-dango...

 

 

 

 

 

[deanolegend1989]

18 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

More than one has said it, a few in fact.

 

Liverpool drawing would be massive as it leave us needing two wins or one win and three draws. Looking at the fixture list we don't want to be going into the last three games with less than a 7pt lead.

I’d go as far to say an 8 or even 9 point lead. 7 point lead would put pressure on to beat one of them.

I think the minimum we need is to be on 66(1 win/1 draw out the next 2) and Liverpool be on 58(draw and win). 8 point gap meaning 2 draws or 1 win, gives us a fair chance.

Got to assume Liverpool will win their last 3 meaning we need to be at least 8 maybe even 9 ahead to be comfortable.

The easier way would be just win our next 2 and get onto 68 and we will all buy have it done.

 

3 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I'm sorry but conceding goals in both games with minutes or seconds to spare is absolutely scandalous and shows the serious self implosion they currently have. Newcastle scored twice in 2 minutes vs them.

I agree they are looking vulnerable at times but let’s be honest, they should of been miles clear before then so many missed chances. I’d be very suprised if they drop many if ANY after Utd so if they did win at Old Trafford, there’s no doubt it will be pressure on us.

[HighPeakFox]

I'm enjoying you all falling out over a totally hypothetical set of results which haven't yet happened. I think we can trust in BR and co to focus on Friday and no further. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

I'm confident none of the others (WHU, Liverpool, Spurs, Everton) chasing 4th will finish on more than 66 points.

 

I'm glad others are backing me on the notion that anyone wanting Liverpool to win is mental.

[hackneyfox]

2 hours ago, deanolegend1989 said:

it and we might be forced to beat Spurs and Newcastle.

We'll need to beat Southampton & Newcastle to get to 68 points or do you think we'll qualify on 65 points?

[FOXSE]

17 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I'm enjoying you all falling out over a totally hypothetical set of results which haven't yet happened. I think we can trust in BR and co to focus on Friday and no further. 

😂😂 if I really wanted Liverpool to beat Man U (I dont) it would actually make any difference to the result. We just need to concentrate on winning our games, and we will see what happens! I am hoping we finish second.

[OhYesNdidi]

11 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

We'll need to beat Southampton & Newcastle to get to 68 points or do you think we'll qualify on 65 points?

I think 68 will do it, Liverpool will get 67 imo and finish 5th 

[deanolegend1989]

10 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

We'll need to beat Southampton & Newcastle to get to 68 points or do you think we'll qualify on 65 points?

Think we need to match Liverpool’s results over the next 2 games at the least.

So if Liverpool win at old Trafford, we will probably need back to back wins. If Liverpool draw or lose, we’d get away with 4 points out the 2 I think.

Basically win vs Southampton and we’re nearly there.

[fuchsntf]

9 hours ago, OrielCaziado said:

I can’t believe people actually want Liverpool to get a result this weekend.  The quicker we get this top four spot sorted the better. A win on Friday and a Liverpool defeat and it’s possibly one round of games away.  If it’s secured at home to Newcastle the week after that massively increases our chances in the FA Cup for me as we aren’t playing a massive pressure full match a few days before our first final in over fifty years. A bad result on Friday and a Liverpool win and that league table will make even the more confident of us start to fear the worse again. 

I like the excitement...Plus for many on here, its like having a Weekly manicure....!!!like

 

until otherwise proven, I Take my Team to win every game...

[Wolfox]

5 hours ago, Gerard said:

 

It's not that people think they will, it's the possibility.

 

People think we can chase Man Utd down who have a 5pt lead on us but think we can't be caught by 4 teams from 5th-8th behind us. There is little value in the places between 2nd & 4th but the drop off is massive from 4th to 5th. 

 

Anyone who puts more value on us finishing 2nd than fears finishing 5th is a moron IMO. They have absolutely no concept of risk/reward.

Depends on whether one of your best mates is a Man Utd fan (i.e we were best man for each other!)

 

I’m torn on this one 

[Ric Flair]

It's fascinating to go through all the permutations, whether it be from a cautious/pessimistic perspective or from one of confidence/rationale based on how the season has gone.

 

Here's a few points of interest that count for very little but might aid and soothe the worrying mind.

 

Should Man Utd avoid defeat on Sunday, regardless of what Man City do the day before vs Palace it means Man City will still need a result at home to Chelsea next Saturday to seal the title, however remote it is that Utd could still catch them. Any dropped points for Chelsea is obviously good news for us as they have just as tough a run in as ours they just have the order of games different to ours and that brings me on to my next point.

 

Our games vs both Man Utd and Chelsea could well be games where a draw favours each team at a moment in time as opposed to needing 3 points and that makes those final 3 games for us potentially less of a daunting task. Man Utd will all but be CL secure and will be saving themselves for hopefully the Europa League final and then Chelsea ought to be 5+ points clear of Liverppol, West Ham, Spurs and Everton and a draw for us both makes it impossible for any team to catch either of us if we haven't completely lost it vs Southampton, Newcastle and Utd. Also it makes very little difference for Chelsea to finish 3rd or 4th as they are the team that are at play with winning the CL and scuppering 4th spot for the likes of us if they were to finish 5th or worse. Therefore 2 draws please and 2 wins in the next 2 for 70 big ones going into that Spurs fixture.

 

Thanks for reading, now go and win us the FA Cup an'all by liking my Vichai post

[Lichfieldfox.]

7 hours ago, Gerard said:

 

If Liverpool beat Man Utd their remaining fixtures are:

 

Southampton & Palace at home.

West Brom & Burnley away.

 

They could quite feasibly win all of those and force us to get 70pts as their GD would likely be superior to ours.

 

We then have to W2, D2, L1 from:

 

Newcastle & Tottenham at home.

Southampton, Man Utd & Chelsea away.

 

IMO you fail to grasp the situation because you've put more value on finishing 2nd than you realise the chances of finishing 5th. If Liverpool win all their games then we have little room for error in our fixtures and maybe forced to get a result away at Man Utd or Chelsea. You can't sniff the danger and are oblivious to what could be lying ahead.

Pessimist. 3 teams in flip flops and one team chasing the CL. Villa will want to do the double over Liverpool. 

Anyway I'm an optimistic nut and frankly don't  give one.

[Lichfieldfox.]

7 hours ago, turlo said:

If we fail to get 6 points from Southampton and Newcastle and then Liverpool beat Man Utd then yes I could see us both ending up on 69 points and it going down to goal difference. Liverpool getting a draw would be the best result as far as I'm concerned, as it pretty much counts Liverpool out of the top 4 race and keeps Man Utd within our sights. . 

Agree

[Guest Chocolate Teapot]

3 minutes ago, Lichfieldfox. said:

Pessimist. 3 teams in flip flops and one team chasing the CL. Villa will want to do the double over Liverpool. 

Anyway I'm an optimistic nut and frankly don't  give one.

A shame they can't then.

[Lichfieldfox.]

5 hours ago, nnfox said:

It doesn't work like that though.  I'd love to finish second and I absolutely don't want to finish 5th, but there isn't a choice to make because all we can do is play our games and see where we end up.  I'm not saying, and nobody is saying, we have to make a choice between 2nd or 5th.  It isn't like we can say that we'll do x, y and z and finish 2nd, but do a, b and c to guarantee 4th - and have to decide which way we go. 

 

There are 5 teams below us that are trying to win all their games.  We can do nothing about it.  We just need to look after our own results and the points will take care of themselves.

 

The way some people go on in here is as if we only have two games left this season and are fully expecting to lose our final three.

Bang on!

[Lichfieldfox.]

5 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

A shame they can't then.

My error. I'm hoping Villa get a point vs Man Utd, but that's unlikely. 

[Aus Fox]

So many people worrying about a game between the team that is 8 points behind us, with an inferior goal difference and a team who is 5 points clear of us.

Some of you I am sure have a bit PTSD from last season, all we need to worry about is winning our games and we are there.

Win 2 of 5 and draw one and we qualify for the Champions League regardless of other results.

Win all 5 and we will finish second.

Between now and the end of the season, there will be twists and turns and people will lose their shit over little things.

We have a 7 point lead and better GD, with 5 games to go. We do not need to worry about other results at this stage. We certainly don’t need to be name calling for others having different opinions in an insignificant game. 
Relax and enjoy the ride...

[Steven]

23 hours ago, jmono84 said:

Need to get Villa in there. They have 6 games remaining and could get to 63pts 😜😜

WTF. I have to redo my spreadsheet. 

[jmono84]

3 minutes ago, Steven said:

WTF. I have to redo my spreadsheet. 

You kno you’ll love it really 😂

[simon789us]

ill take a man u win vs liverpool finish a comfortable 3rd in league and win FA cup right now oh and while im at it derby to be relegated  

[Motty]

Todays the day to show our mettle again.

Beating Palace from 1 down shows we are in a better place than last year. Southampton will want to settle the hurt of the semi loss, much like they did after the 9-0.

I think we can win this game.  it maybe very nervy, if we score first we may well win comfortably.

Winning the next 2 games and beating Chelsea twice in one week will give us 3rd in the league and our first ever FA Cup. 

Simplistic I know! win those 4 games out of the next 5 and massive party against Spurs(y)

 

We may well only need to draw the league game with Chelsea by that time.

 

 

Edited 30 April 2021 by Motty

[Andrew]

Sorry if this has been mentioned already but if we finish 4th and Arsenal win the Europa league and Chelsea win the champions league and finish outside the top four then we will need to finish at least third to qualify

Edited 30 April 2021 by Andrew