2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Ric Flair]

1 minute ago, filthyfox said:

SIX.... MORE... POINTS! That is all we need!

 

 

That doesn't confirm it, 3 wins confirm it. We require dropped results from 2 of Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham and Everton as well.

[Bert]

3 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

That doesn't confirm it, 3 wins confirm it. We require dropped results from 2 of Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham and Everton as well.

6 points will be enough mate I’m sure 

[Les-TA-Jon]

I love how I started this whole thread with the prediction of 68 points and most updates since have reinforced that.

 

And then everyone's commenting like "I've given it some thought and I think 68 will be enough"

 

Edited 30 April 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[KrefelderFox666]

30 minutes ago, enmac said:

Purely hypothetically, could a situation arise where it is in our interests to lose the last game of the season against Chelsea so that they finish in the top 4 which prevents them having to qualify for a CL spot by winning the CL? 

If so, what is the penalty for deliberately losing a game? 

Forgetting the fact we play Chelsea in the game before last.

 

Why would we ever want to lose a game on purpose, especially a team fighting us for CL? If we are in the Top 3 already, guaranteed, then losing to Chelsea does not impact us. If we are 4th, why would you want Chelsea to overtake us and we end up in EL?

[KrefelderFox666]

3 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I love how I started this whole thread with the prediction of 68 points and most updates since have reinforced that. And then everyone's commenting like "I've given it some thought and I think 68 will be enough" 

I think 68 is a safe option. I actually think that by the end of the season 66/67 might actually be enough. Not that I want us to gamble on that!

[Steve Earle]

23 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

This is down to impatience of wanting to know the outcome of our fate. These next 2 games are palatable whereas the final 3 a horrible prospect and therefore to make ourselves feel better we have to keep saying that win these next 2 and we'll be fine.

 

It's hard to stay in the moment, I've found this very difficult the older I get with Leicester. That title win was torture, I'm still annoyed with myself for failing to soak up the moments prior to it being confirmed. It was agony from Christmas to the start of May.

Absolutely!

 

I can still remember the pain of West Ham at home. I couldn't even celebrate Ulloa's equaliser for fear of having a heart attack!!

[filthyfox]

No gambles.

Even if it means resting our best players for the FA cup.

Top 4 is the greater prize!

[coolhandfox]

14 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

That doesn't confirm it, 3 wins confirm it. We require dropped results from 2 of Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham and Everton as well.

I'd bet not one of the wins all 5 let alone 2! 

[KrefelderFox666]

It still annoys me that people (in particular pundits) say we lost CL spot in the last game of the season. We actually lost the CL spot the penultimate game. It was still in our hands on the last day but we were already chasing.

 

Aside from the fact that the downfall started way before then.

 

This season is different on so many levels. The only thing that isn't different is the average competition we have. The last 2 seasons have been a great opportunity for a different team to get into Europe. Only ourselves have managed it so far, maybe West Ham or Everton could also join in this year and kick Liverpool and/or Spurs out.

[Jobyfox]

Ok, looking at my geeky spreadsheet...

 

If every one of our challengers gets maximum points from their remaining games then we’d need 71 points to be sure. At the moment West Ham and Everton are the only teams who can get 70 points outside the current top three. Incidentally, if we continue our current PPG average we finish on 71 points.

 

My prediction has always been that 68 points would be enough. To achieve that we’d need a PPG of 1.2 PPG. We’re currently averaging 1.88. 
 

If the ‘rate of drop’ on the required number to get 4th continues on the same trajectory that it has since the start of the season then 64 points would be enough. One more win!

 

The good news is that all these stats give us reassurance. 
 

The bad news is that the shorter the period the less relevant PPG averages become as anybody can maintain short bursts of form. So with only 5 games left it’s anyone’s guess.

 

Not that I’ve really put any thought into this. 😜

[Jobyfox]

11 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I love how I started this whole thread with the prediction of 68 points and most updates since have reinforced that.

 

And then everyone's commenting like "I've given it some thought and I think 68 will be enough"

 

To be fair I always backed your 68 points prediction 

[Nalis]

2 hours ago, Gerard said:

 

Those predictors fall down as you always pick the obvious result but invariably it doesn't end up that like.

 

You have both West Ham and Liverpool winning four of their last five.

If you did one for next season you'd have Man City on 110pts and if Barnsley got promoted they'd have about 10pts. 

 

A more accurate way to judge is to take the mid point on the spreads which has us 3rd and 4.5pts better than Liverpool in 5th.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

Yeah good point, its still worked out that way even though I added some shock results like Chelsea and Leicester drawing this weekend.

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 minute ago, Jobyfox said:

Ok, looking at my geeky spreadsheet...

 

If every one of our challengers gets maximum points from their remaining games then we’d need 71 points to be sure. At the moment West Ham and Everton are the only teams who can get 70 points outside the current top three. Incidentally, if we continue our current PPG average we finish on 71 points.

 

My prediction has always been that 68 points would be enough. To achieve that we’d need a PPG of 1.2 PPG. We’re currently averaging 1.88. 
 

If the ‘rate of drop’ on the required number to get 4th continues on the same trajectory that it has since the start of the season then 64 points would be enough. One more win!

 

The good news is that all these stats give us reassurance. 
 

The bad news is that the shorter the period the less relevant PPG averages become as anybody can maintain short bursts of form. So with only 5 games left it’s anyone’s guess.

 

Not that I’ve really put any thought into this. 😜

Or see: 

 Haha 

[enmac]

4 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Forgetting the fact we play Chelsea in the game before last.

 

Why would we ever want to lose a game on purpose, especially a team fighting us for CL? If we are in the Top 3 already, guaranteed, then losing to Chelsea does not impact us. If we are 4th, why would you want Chelsea to overtake us and we end up in EL?

Again hypothetically, we are in 3rd place definitely, but what if there's a player both we and West Ham want to buy and the player prefers London to Leicester (place not team) but who stipulates that he will only go to the team guaranteed CL football? 

It would then be in our interests to lose to Chelsea. 

This is far fetched, I know. 

[enmac]

16 minutes ago, Bert said:

6 points will be enough mate I’m sure 

I raise you 8 points for certainty. 

[urban fox]

12 minutes ago, filthyfox said:

No gambles.

Even if it means resting our best players for the FA cup.

Top 4 is the greater prize!

I would rather we rest players against man utd before the final. we still have two more games to go after that.

Anyone who would advocate that we deliberately weaken our chance to win the FA cup has no soul and obviously has no idea what it has been like to be a foxes fan since the sixties.

Even as a lifelong fan of this club, if we were to even contemplate doing such a thing would be a complete anathema and i would (if i actually had one) tear up my season ticket and burn every piece of LCFC memorabilia that i have. I would rather support Forest (or Spurs) than think that we would do such a thing

Edited 30 April 2021 by urban fox

[filthyfox]

Just now, urban fox said:

I would rather we rest players against man utd before the final. we still have to games to go after that.

Anyone who would advocate that we deliberately weaken our chance to win the FA cup has no soul and obviously has no idea what it has been like to be a foxes fan since the sixties.

Even as a lifelong fan of this club, if we were to even contemplate doing such a thing would be a complete anathema and i would (if i actually had one) tear up my season ticket and burn every piece of LCFC memorabilia that i have. I would rather support Forest (or Spurs) than think that we would do such a thing

I was joking 😂  (fan since we beat Palace in the Playoffs)

 

It would be an UTTER disappointment if we didnt get top 4 though

[Gerard]

37 minutes ago, Steve Earle said:

Just my opinion, but I think there's too much optimism on here about the next two games (4 points more likely than 6 maybe?) and too much pessimism about the last three (we'll probably get 2-5 points from those). 6 points in total would see us very squeaky, 7 or 8 would be just about certain. I'd love to be wrong! 6 points from the next two and we're practically home and hosed.

 

I think it suits us how the games have fallen.

 

We really need to get it done in the next two games by getting a minimum of 4pts.

 

After next weekend what we need to do will be a lot clearer but we'll go into the last three knowing how many points we need.

[foxfan92]

19 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

That doesn't confirm it, 3 wins confirm it. We require dropped results from 2 of Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham and Everton as well.

True but (and I've supported Leicester long enough to know there are no guarantees) it would require either West Ham or Liverpool to win all their remaining games (since even pessimisically I cant see West Ham catching us on goal difference).

 

Hopefully we win later and other results go our way meaning by the Newcastle game we have a chance at securing top 4 on our own.

 

Come on Burnley ... torn as who to cheer for in the Liverpool game. I know I should be wanting top 4 first and foremost but if we win tonight I might start greedily hoping for 2nd.

 

Be nice to turn the tables on last season and sneak above United when everyone has them as certain to finish 2nd.

[MGLCFC]

2 minutes ago, urban fox said:

I would rather we rest players against man utd before the final. we still have to games to go after that.

Anyone who would advocate that we deliberately weaken our chance to win the FA cup has no soul and obviously has no idea what it has been like to be a foxes fan since the sixties.

Even as a lifelong fan of this club, if we were to even contemplate doing such a thing would be a complete anathema and i would (if i actually had one) tear up my season ticket and burn every piece of LCFC memorabilia that i have. I would rather support Forest (or Spurs) than think that we would do such a thing

Well, hopefully if we win our next 2 and Burnley or Everton beat West Ham (or both are draws) and Man U beat Liverpool, then we can play our Under 23's against Man U as we will have already qualified for the CL

[foxfan92]

9 minutes ago, Jobyfox said:

Ok, looking at my geeky spreadsheet...

 

If every one of our challengers gets maximum points from their remaining games then we’d need 71 points to be sure. At the moment West Ham and Everton are the only teams who can get 70 points outside the current top three. Incidentally, if we continue our current PPG average we finish on 71 points.

 

My prediction has always been that 68 points would be enough. To achieve that we’d need a PPG of 1.2 PPG. We’re currently averaging 1.88. 
 

If the ‘rate of drop’ on the required number to get 4th continues on the same trajectory that it has since the start of the season then 64 points would be enough. One more win!

 

The good news is that all these stats give us reassurance. 
 

The bad news is that the shorter the period the less relevant PPG averages become as anybody can maintain short bursts of form. So with only 5 games left it’s anyone’s guess.

 

Not that I’ve really put any thought into this. 😜

Only one of Everton or West Ham though since they play each other before the end of the season.

 

Hope I'm not wrong but can't see either winning all their remaining games 

[Jobyfox]

2 minutes ago, foxfan92 said:

Only one of Everton or West Ham though since they play each other before the end of the season.

 

Hope I'm not wrong but can't see either winning all their remaining games 

Yes - true. I don’t factor in who plays each other and just look at the numbers, but it’s this kind of thing that gives us more reassurance that requiring 70+ is highly improbable. 
 

A win tonight really does put us on the tipping point. If it wasn’t for that tough run in you’d say it almost confirms it. 

[Gerard]

24 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

I think 68 is a safe option. I actually think that by the end of the season 66/67 might actually be enough. Not that I want us to gamble on that!

 

I think about 40% of the time 65pts will be enough according to the spreads.

 

Yo always fear the worst at this stage. Amazingly we're still mathematically in the title race and if you swapped Man City for us and we had a 15pt lead I'd still have Man City winning their last five and be worried if we lost tonight we can't afford to slip up against Newcastle because of our last three games.

 

Win the next two and be on 68pts and assess again when the next weekend's results are done is the ideal scenario but 66pts sees us home probably more than 50% of the time.

[KrefelderFox666]

45 minutes ago, enmac said:

Again hypothetically, we are in 3rd place definitely, but what if there's a player both we and West Ham want to buy and the player prefers London to Leicester (place not team) but who stipulates that he will only go to the team guaranteed CL football? 

It would then be in our interests to lose to Chelsea. 

This is far fetched, I know. 

Fair enough, I get your point now. I lacked the context of why we would purposely lose (pretty sure the club/players/staff are too professional to lose on purpose anyway).

[KrefelderFox666]

27 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

I think about 40% of the time 65pts will be enough according to the spreads.

 

Yo always fear the worst at this stage. Amazingly we're still mathematically in the title race and if you swapped Man City for us and we had a 15pt lead I'd still have Man City winning their last five and be worried if we lost tonight we can't afford to slip up against Newcastle because of our last three games.

 

Win the next two and be on 68pts and assess again when the next weekend's results are done is the ideal scenario but 66pts sees us home probably more than 50% of the time.

I think if we are on 65/66 points (at least) after the Newcastle game, then we will be close to getting over the line. It just means a bit more panicking! Playing first in the next two round of fixtures can really put the pressure on if we do end up winning both.

 

We will know more at about 22:00 tonight.