2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[NasPb]

3 hours ago, Lineker's Lugs said:

Liverpool are still the team I'm concerned about, but it makes no real sense - they're 8 points behind with 5 matches left, having only caught up 2 points over the last 5.

 

The natural pessimism of the football supporter overcomes logic I suppose!

 

 

Am. Hoping united can do us a favour. They'll want the knock out blow vs Liverpool for their rivalry. 

[Reg Vardy]

2 hours ago, NasPb said:

Am. Hoping united can do us a favour. They'll want the knock out blow vs Liverpool for their rivalry. 

Draw would do...particularly if we win...

[Fox seen in Norwich]

5 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

Agreed. I think last season, we blow the Southampton semi, we blow the West Brom game, and we probably blow tonight as well.

 

Neither tonight or Southampton were convincing but we got the results. We've got more about us this season.

We’ve got Nacho (playing) this season 👍🏻

[Torten]

3 hours ago, NasPb said:

Am. Hoping united can do us a favour. They'll want the knock out blow vs Liverpool for their rivalry. 

I’m very confident that game finishes 0-0

[Area88]

I believe we only need 1 more win to potentially open a 12 point gap and 4 games remaining.

 

In other words, 1 more victory should be enough.

Edited 27 April 2021 by Area88

[Fox92]

22 minutes ago, Area88 said:

I believe we only need 1 more win to potentially open a 12 point gap and 4 games remaining.

 

In other words, 1 more victory should be enough.

Beat Southampton and Newcastle should be alright for me. Then we can probably afford a slip up against either Man Utd or Chelsea (ie not needing to win the games). Then back to a side in Spurs who we should be looking to beat also.

[Koke]

I know this is a bit premature as we haven't secured top 4 yet. But I'd love us to finish 3rd instead of 4th, just for a psychological boost for the players. Finishing above the reigning champions in Liverpool, and a Chelsea side who have spent hundreds of millions would mean a lot. 

[coolhandfox]

8 minutes ago, Koke said:

I know this is a bit premature as we haven't secured top 4 yet. But I'd love us to finish 3rd instead of 4th, just for a psychological boost for the players. Finishing above the reigning champions in Liverpool, and a Chelsea side who have spent hundreds of millions would mean a lot. 

2nd isn't out of reach with United to play still.

 

Would be nice to see us finish the season in good form, and looking up rather then down,

[Lesterlad]

22 hours ago, dynamark said:

Id be concerned about having to play full strength in a league game v Chelsea a few days before the final .Much rather they dont get a preview of our team and play until it hits them on cup final day

We will be playing them after the final. Too many fixtures for Chelsea before then. My guess will be Wednesday 19th 

[Aus Fox]

5 hours ago, NasPb said:

Am. Hoping united can do us a favour. They'll want the knock out blow vs Liverpool for their rivalry. 

If we beat Southampton, I’d prefer this game to end in a draw, that would leave us only 3 points behind Utd with them still to play and mean we only need 1 more win to add Liverpool to the can’t catch us list.

We should now IMO be aiming for 2nd.

[Ric Flair]

8 hours ago, Lineker's Lugs said:

Liverpool are still the team I'm concerned about, but it makes no real sense - they're 8 points behind with 5 matches left, having only caught up 2 points over the last 5.

 

The natural pessimism of the football supporter overcomes logic I suppose!

 

 

They're away at Old Trafford on Sunday. It's a huge week. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Just realised WHU and Everton have to play each other, so both won't be able to win all of their games (as unlikely as that'll be)

[Deeg67]

I think 4 points from the next two should probably be enough to get us over the line.  Six would make it more comfortable though.

[Lineker's Lugs]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

They're away at Old Trafford on Sunday. It's a huge week. 

The downside of being at the top end of the table is that cheering on Man Utd is becoming a worryingly common occurrence.

 

It's almost enough to make me pine for mid-table mediocrity!

 

[Nick]

2 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

I think 4 points from the next two should probably be enough to get us over the line.  Six would make it more comfortable though.

Yeah you're probably about right there.

 

I was thinking earlier that if we win the next two (or any two of the five remaining) that will be enough for 4th place. On paper three wins will do it but you may be right - it's hard to know in this crazy results league. When you look at the fixtures, you'd expect Spurs and Liverpool to win every game but it just aint happening.

[Nick]

5 hours ago, Koke said:

I know this is a bit premature as we haven't secured top 4 yet. But I'd love us to finish 3rd instead of 4th, just for a psychological boost for the players. Finishing above the reigning champions in Liverpool, and a Chelsea side who have spent hundreds of millions would mean a lot. 

I've still not ruled out finishing 2nd!

[Gerard]

Posted this on the Palace pre match thread, our quickest way to top four.

 

26th April - Leicester beat Palace 

30th April - Leicester beat Southampton

1st May - Everton draw at home with Villa

2nd May - Liverpool lose away at Man Utd, Tottenham beat Sheffield Utd at home

3rd May - West Ham draw away at Burnley

7th May - Leicester beat Newcastle

8th May - Tottenham draw away at Leeds, Liverpool beat Southampton

9th May - West Ham draw at home to Everton

 

And that's it..............

 

With an FA Cup final six days later 

[hackneyfox]

On 26/04/2021 at 11:25, dynamark said:

Id be concerned about having to play full strength in a league game v Chelsea a few days before the final .Much rather they dont get a preview of our team and play until it hits them on cup final day

Aren't we playing them in the league post FA Cup? They have CL semis before the final.

Edited 27 April 2021 by hackneyfox

[Gerard]

37 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

Arent't we playing them in the league post FA Cup? They have CL semis before the final.

 

You're right.

 

Chelsea have no room in their schedule to play us any other time but the midweek game between the FA Cup final and the last game of the season.

 

It will be hard for the losers to give the winners a guard of honour, all the more reason to win it. 

[Lambert09]

1 hour ago, Gerard said:

Posted this on the Palace pre match thread, our quickest way to top four.

 

26th April - Leicester beat Palace 

30th April - Leicester beat Southampton

1st May - Everton draw at home with Villa

2nd May - Liverpool lose away at Man Utd, Tottenham beat Sheffield Utd at home

3rd May - West Ham draw away at Burnley

7th May - Leicester beat Newcastle

8th May - Tottenham draw away at Leeds, Liverpool beat Southampton

9th May - West Ham draw at home to Everton

 

And that's it..............

 

With an FA Cup final six days later 

I hate to be the one .... but wouldn’t it be quicker if our rivals lost all of their games  

Edited 27 April 2021 by Lambert09

[Gerard]

13 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

I hate to be the one .... but wouldn’t it be quicker if our rivals lost all of their games  

Even if they did this is still the quickest route, the earliest we can confirm CL is on 9th May if West ham and Everton draw with each other.

Edited 27 April 2021 by Gerard

[KrefelderFox666]

29 minutes ago, Gerard said:

Even if they did this is still the quickest route, the earliest we can confirm CL is on 9th May if West ham and Everton draw with each other.

Pretty sure we could guarantee ourselves Top 4 by 7th May if we beat Southampton and Newcastle, and results go our way this weekend.

[Lineker's Lugs]

25 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Pretty sure we could guarantee ourselves Top 4 by 7th May if we beat Southampton and Newcastle, and results go our way this weekend.

Deleted - I can't add 62 and 6.  Good job I only work in Finance.

Edited 27 April 2021 by Lineker's Lugs

[Gerard]

12 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Pretty sure we could guarantee ourselves Top 4 by 7th May if we beat Southampton and Newcastle, and results go our way this weekend.

 

We could but it would take a sequence of perfect results.

 

Maximum points

 

Everton 70

West Ham 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

 

So if we beat both Southampton and Newcastle we'd be on 68pts and need:

 

Everton lose at home Villa

West Ham to lose away at Burnley

Liverpool to fail to win at Man Utd

Tottenham to fail to win at home to Sheffield Utd

 

 

[KrefelderFox666]

4 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

We could but it would take a sequence of perfect results.

 

Maximum points

 

Everton 70

West Ham 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

 

So if we beat both Southampton and Newcastle we'd be on 68pts and need:

 

Everton lose at home Villa

West Ham to lose away at Burnley

Liverpool to fail to win at Man Utd

Tottenham to fail to win at home to Sheffield Utd

 

 

Yes, that was my thinking (as unlikely as the set of results are, but possible nonetheless).

 

I'd be very surprised if things were done and dusted before the FA Cup final.