2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[KrefelderFox666]

3 hours ago, Nalis said:

That is horrific and dare I say a bit unfair on them. Although Tuesday wpuld be better for us I'm guessing there's a possibility it will be changed to Wednesday? 

Nothing past the weekend of 8th May has been confirmed yet. So no doubt our game and Chelsea's game will be Wednesday 12th May.

[Long Eaton Fox]

12 hours ago, hackneyfox said:

Yes

But we need Chelsea to finish top 4. If they don't but win CL and Arsenal win EL then we 4th place misses out.

Thanks

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Nothing past the weekend of 8th May has been confirmed yet. So no doubt our game and Chelsea's game will be Wednesday 12th May.

Except we’re supposed to be playing at yanited 11th and Chelsea v Arsenal 12th! 
 

suspect our Chelsea game will be the midweek following the cup final as that is a free week and it allows them to have fans in for their last home fixture 

[Gerard]

Man Utd will go 14pts clear of 5th if they win today.

 

I suspect their quick turnover of games against Villa and ourselves after the Europa Cup SF will be of little concern to them as their CL spot will be done and dusted by then. 

[Clever Fox]

I think the league positions down to Liverpool as they are today will stay pretty much the same on the run in.

Our lads know the importance of the next few games and so I expect them to deliver and securing a top 4 finish.

Obviously Chelsea are the form team putting a run together and playing for the new Manager, Though they have a lot on their plate,

So their unlikely to win every game.

[Motty]

32 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Except we’re supposed to be playing at yanited 11th and Chelsea v Arsenal 12th! 
 

suspect our Chelsea game will be the midweek following the cup final as that is a free week and it allows them to have fans in for their last home fixture 

I think that as well. This fixture was always going to be moved all game week 37 played on or after the 17th of May

[Motty]

6 minutes ago, Clever Fox said:

I think the league positions down to Liverpool as they are today will stay pretty much the same on the run in.

Our lads know the importance of the next few games and so I expect them to deliver and securing a top 4 finish.

Obviously Chelsea are the form team putting a run together and playing for the new Manager, Though they have a lot on their plate,

So their unlikely to win every game.

Man u 5wins then Man C 4 wins and a loss ,Liverpool and Leeds 3 wins 2 draws then us 3wins 2 losses. Chelsea Spurs and Newcastle all have same 2 wins 2 draws and a loss in their last 5 league games

[Motty]

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Premier League – Form Guide – Last 10 Matches

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			Last 10 Matches										P	W	D	L	F	A	+/-	Pts
	1	Manchester City	W 3-1 v EVER..	W 1-0 v ARSE..	W 2-1 v WEST..	W 4-1 v WOLV..	L 2-0 v MANC..	W 5-2 v SOUT..	W 3-0 v FULH..	W 2-0 v LEIC..	L 2-1 v LEED..	W 2-1 v ASTO..	10	8	0	2	23	10	+13	24
	2	Manchester United	D 3-3 v EVER..	D 1-1 v WEST..	W 3-1 v NEWC..	D 0-0 v CHEL..	D 0-0 v CRYS..	W 2-0 v MANC..	W 1-0 v WEST..	W 2-1 v BRIG..	W 3-1 v TOTT..	W 3-1 v BURN..	10	6	4	0	18	8	+10	22
	3	Chelsea	W 2-0 v NEWC..	D 1-1 v SOUT..	D 0-0 v MANC..	W 1-0 v LIVE..	W 2-0 v EVER..	D 0-0 v LEED..	L 5-2 v WEST..	W 4-1 v CRYS..	D 0-0 v BRIG..	W 1-0 v WEST..	10	5	4	1	13	7	+6	19
	4	Tottenham Hotspur	L 2-1 v WEST..	W 4-0 v BURN..	W 1-0 v FULH..	W 4-1 v CRYS..	L 2-1 v ARSE..	W 2-0 v ASTO..	D 2-2 v NEWC..	L 3-1 v MANC..	D 2-2 v EVER..	W 2-1 v SOUT..	10	5	2	3	20	13	+7	17
	5	Leicester City	D 0-0 v WOLV..	W 3-1 v LIVE..	W 2-1 v ASTO..	L 3-1 v ARSE..	D 1-1 v BURN..	W 2-1 v BRIG..	W 5-0 v SHEF..	L 2-0 v MANC..	L 3-2 v WEST..	W 3-0 v WEST..	10	5	2	3	19	12	+7	17
	6	West Ham United	W 3-0 v SHEF..	W 2-1 v TOTT..	L 2-1 v MANC..	W 2-0 v LEED..	L 1-0 v MANC..	D 3-3 v ARSE..	W 3-2 v WOLV..	W 3-2 v LEIC..	L 3-2 v NEWC..	L 1-0 v CHEL..	10	5	1	4	19	15	+4	16
	7	Arsenal	W 4-2 v LEED..	L 1-0 v MANC..	W 3-1 v LEIC..	D 1-1 v BURN..	W 2-1 v TOTT..	D 3-3 v WEST..	L 3-0 v LIVE..	W 3-0 v SHEF..	D 1-1 v FULH..	L 1-0 v EVER..	10	4	3	3	17	14	+3	15
	8	Everton	L 3-1 v MANC..	W 2-0 v LIVE..	W 1-0 v SOUT..	W 1-0 v WEST..	L 2-0 v CHEL..	L 2-1 v BURN..	D 1-1 v CRYS..	D 0-0 v BRIG..	D 2-2 v TOTT..	W 1-0 v ARSE..	10	4	3	3	10	10	0	15
	9	Wolverhampton Wanderers	D 0-0 v LEIC..	W 2-1 v SOUT..	W 1-0 v LEED..	D 1-1 v NEWC..	L 4-1 v MANC..	D 0-0 v ASTO..	L 1-0 v LIVE..	L 3-2 v WEST..	W 1-0 v FULH..	W 1-0 v SHEF..	10	4	3	3	9	10	-1	15
	10	Liverpool	L 3-1 v LEIC..	L 2-0 v EVER..	W 2-0 v SHEF..	L 1-0 v CHEL..	L 1-0 v FULH..	W 1-0 v WOLV..	W 3-0 v ARSE..	W 2-1 v ASTO..	D 1-1 v LEED..	D 1-1 v NEWC..	10	4	2	4	11	10	+1	14
	11	Leeds United	L 4-2 v ARSE..	L 1-0 v WOLV..	W 3-0 v SOUT..	L 1-0 v ASTO..	L 2-0 v WEST..	D 0-0 v CHEL..	W 2-1 v FULH..	W 2-1 v SHEF..	W 2-1 v MANC..	D 1-1 v LIVE..	10	4	2	4	12	12	0	14
	12	West Bromwich Albion	L 2-0 v TOTT..	D 1-1 v MANC..	D 0-0 v BURN..	W 1-0 v BRIG..	L 1-0 v EVER..	D 0-0 v NEWC..	L 1-0 v CRYS..	W 5-2 v CHEL..	W 3-0 v SOUT..	L 3-0 v LEIC..	10	3	3	4	10	10	0	12
	13	Crystal Palace	W 2-1 v NEWC..	L 2-0 v LEED..	L 3-0 v BURN..	W 2-1 v BRIG..	D 0-0 v FULH..	D 0-0 v MANC..	L 4-1 v TOTT..	W 1-0 v WEST..	D 1-1 v EVER..	L 4-1 v CHEL..	10	3	3	4	8	16	-8	12
	14	Newcastle United	L 2-0 v CHEL..	L 3-1 v MANC..	D 1-1 v WOLV..	D 0-0 v WEST..	D 1-1 v ASTO..	L 3-0 v BRIG..	D 2-2 v TOTT..	W 2-1 v BURN..	W 3-2 v WEST..	D 1-1 v LIVE..	10	2	5	3	11	16	-5	11
	15	Burnley	W 3-0 v CRYS..	D 1-1 v FULH..	D 0-0 v WEST..	L 4-0 v TOTT..	D 1-1 v LEIC..	D 1-1 v ARSE..	W 2-1 v EVER..	L 3-2 v SOUT..	L 2-1 v NEWC..	L 3-1 v MANC..	10	2	4	4	12	16	-4	10
	16	Brighton & Hove Albion	D 0-0 v ASTO..	L 2-1 v CRYS..	L 1-0 v WEST..	L 2-1 v LEIC..	W 2-1 v SOUT..	W 3-0 v NEWC..	L 2-1 v MANC..	D 0-0 v EVER..	D 0-0 v CHEL..	L 1-0 v SHEF..	10	2	3	5	8	9	-1	9
	17	Aston Villa	D 0-0 v BRIG..	L 2-1 v LEIC..	W 1-0 v LEED..	L 1-0 v SHEF..	D 0-0 v WOLV..	D 1-1 v NEWC..	L 2-0 v TOTT..	W 3-1 v FULH..	L 2-1 v LIVE..	L 2-1 v MANC..	10	2	3	5	8	11	-3	9
	18	Fulham	D 1-1 v BURN..	W 1-0 v SHEF..	D 0-0 v CRYS..	L 1-0 v TOTT..	W 1-0 v LIVE..	L 3-0 v MANC..	L 2-1 v LEED..	L 3-1 v ASTO..	L 1-0 v WOLV..	D 1-1 v ARSE..	10	2	3	5	6	12	-6	9
	19	Southampton	L 2-1 v WOLV..	D 1-1 v CHEL..	L 3-0 v LEED..	L 1-0 v EVER..	W 2-0 v SHEF..	L 5-2 v MANC..	L 2-1 v BRIG..	W 3-2 v BURN..	L 3-0 v WEST..	L 2-1 v TOTT..	10	2	1	7	11	21	-10	7
	20	Sheffield United	L 3-0 v WEST..	L 1-0 v FULH..	L 2-0 v LIVE..	W 1-0 v ASTO..	L 2-0 v SOUT..	L 5-0 v LEIC..	L 2-1 v LEED..	L 3-0 v ARSE..	L 1-0 v WOLV..	W 1-0 v BRIG..	10	2	0	8	3	19	-16	6

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[Clever Fox]

2 hours ago, Motty said:

Man u 5wins then Man C 4 wins and a loss ,Liverpool and Leeds 3 wins 2 draws then us 3wins 2 losses. Chelsea Spurs and Newcastle all have same 2 wins 2 draws and a loss in their last 5 league games

yes that all seems doable. if we can win the next 3 then we may not need anything form the last three. Though I know Brendan will want to win as many as possible.

If we had it done by the cup final and managed a win their, Then I could see Brendan resting quite a few and blooding a few in those last three games. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Buzzing for the next update after tomorrows game, if we win it'll look beautiful

[Raw Dykes]

13 minutes ago, Clever Fox said:

yes that all seems doable. if we can win the next 3 then we may not need anything form the last three. Though I know Brendan will want to win as many as possible.

If we had it done by the cup final and managed a win their, Then I could see Brendan resting quite a few and blooding a few in those last three games. 

I doubt we'll see any resting of players or blooding youngsters unless 3rd place is wrapped up. Bit of extra prize money, but mainly the uncertainty over 4th place qualifying for CL means we can't afford to do that.

[Greg2607]

Still feels like 2nd place is doable. If man u lost to us and Liverpool we'd be ahead of them in the table assuming we win tomorrow.  

 

They can't win the league, they aren't dropping out of the top 4. Who knows how motivated they will be.. . 

[CosbehFox]

The points per game, the last six games form and the last ten games form all projects now as little as 64 points being enough. 

 

3 wins from here - 68 points needs the chasing pack requiring perfect records (Chelsea withstanding)......

[Clever Fox]

3 hours ago, Raw Dykes said:

I doubt we'll see any resting of players or blooding youngsters unless 3rd place is wrapped up. Bit of extra prize money, but mainly the uncertainty over 4th place qualifying for CL means we can't afford to do that.

Yes, I did think of the money but the difference between the places is roughly 2 million.

Not to be sniffed at but to get the young players some first team match experience it might  be worth it.

That way we can see if they have what it takes to step up. 

But you could well be right given the finances this year.

[st albans fox]

39 minutes ago, Clever Fox said:

Yes, I did think of the money but the difference between the places is roughly 2 million.

Not to be sniffed at but to get the young players some first team match experience it might  be worth it.

That way we can see if they have what it takes to step up. 

But you could well be right given the finances this year.

I’m sure that the champions league tv pot distribution depends on your finishing position 

[Raw Dykes]

42 minutes ago, Clever Fox said:

Yes, I did think of the money but the difference between the places is roughly 2 million.

Not to be sniffed at but to get the young players some first team match experience it might  be worth it.

That way we can see if they have what it takes to step up. 

But you could well be right given the finances this year.

The prize money, while nice, isn't as important as the certainty involved in 3rd place qualifying for CL. There is still a chance that both the CL and EL are won by English clubs who finish outside the top 4, meaning the club finishing 4th would not get into the CL. While that's still a possibility, I'm sure we'll be doing everything we can to finish at least 3rd.

 

I do agree that it would be good to see some young players get a chance in dead rubber games, though. If Arsenal or Chelsea are knocked out of Europe soon, then I think we could see it.

[Carl the Llama]

23 hours ago, turlo said:

Man Utd have 2 games in 5 days prior to playing us and only 1 day rest after the Villa game. They should be knackered  by the time they play us on the Tuesday

 I wouldn't make too much of that, odds are they rest players at Villa following the Europa semi-final.

[Motty]

As it stands 12 points needed to guarantee top 4 (71}

hopefully this will change as teams chasing drop points.

WHam 5 games max 70

Everton 6 games Max 70

Liverpool 5 games Max 69

Tottenham 5 games Max 68

Villa 6 games Max 63

Leeds 5 Games Max 62

Arsenal bye bye

 

Edited 26 April 2021 by Motty

[AS78UK]

If we can beat Palace and Southampton, that takes us to 65 points before any other team has kicked a ball.  That will change the whole perception of the run-in and pressure will move on the chasing pack.  Sadly of we loose them then the pressure and tension will mount on our team.  

[nnfox]

32 minutes ago, Motty said:

As it stands 12 points needed to guarantee top 4 (71}

hopefully this will change as teams chasing drop points.

WHam 5 games max 70

Everton 6 games Max 70

Liverpool 5 games Max 69

Tottenham 5 games Max 68

Villa 6 games Max 63

Leeds 5 Games Max 62

Arsenal 5 games Max 61

 

So looks like if we get 3 more wins (68 points), providing Spurs, Liverpool, Everton or West Ham don't win every game, we're good.

1

With Everton and West Ham still to play each other and us to play Spurs, it really is in our hands.

[coolhandfox]

After watching the last few weeks how anyone can think Chelsea, West Ham, Liverpool, Everton and Spurs can win all their  games is beyond me.

 

Last 5 game 

 

Chelsea    WDWLD

West Ham LLWWD

Liverpool  DDWWW

Spurs       WDLDW

Everton    WDDDL

 

 

[Big Dave]

15 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

Still feels like 2nd place is doable. If man u lost to us and Liverpool we'd be ahead of them in the table assuming we win tomorrow.  

 

They can't win the league, they aren't dropping out of the top 4. Who knows how motivated they will be.. . 

I just can’t see them losing many games in the run in (but fingers crossed they do).  I sadly think the 2nd place boat has sailed.

[Big Dave]

1 hour ago, nnfox said:

So looks like if we get 3 more wins (68 points), providing Spurs, Liverpool, Everton or West Ham don't win every game, we're good.

1

With Everton and West Ham still to play each other and us to play Spurs, it really is in our hands.

Yep - think 9 points from the last 6 games will be enough.

[Ric Flair]

17 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

I just can’t see them losing many games in the run in (but fingers crossed they do).  I sadly think the 2nd place boat has sailed.

Hope they win on Sunday

[nnfox]

1 hour ago, coolhandfox said:

After watching the last few weeks how anyone can think Chelsea, West Ham, Liverpool, Everton and Spurs can win all their  games is beyond me.

 

Last 5 game 

 

Chelsea    WDWLD

West Ham LLWWD

Liverpool  DDWWW

Spurs       WDLDW

Everton    WDDDL

 

 

Just to add a little perspective as all of those teams have 5 games left (Everton have 6), only Manchester City and Manchester Utd have gone on a run of 5 consecutive Premier League wins this season.  Only Man City have managed more than 5.  It's a hugely difficult thing to do.

 

And just to temper our own expectations of winning against WBA, Palace, Southampton and Newcastle to reach that 68 point mark, we haven't won 4 games in a row yet this season (we've gone on a 3 match winning run three times).  So, if we do drop points over the next couple of weeks, it isn't necessarily the end of the world.