2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

Chelsea’s run in is arguably as tough as ours, Liverpool have a comfortable run of winnable games after the Man Utd game so could do with Liverpool not winning.

Its in our hands, we seem mentally stronger this season and are about at full strength bar JJ and Barnes, I think we’ll win on Friday and be able to relax watching the other weekend results come in.

[SixtiesFox]

Although the best case scenario would be to have it all done and dusted before the FA Cup Final, relying on the results of others, something we cannot control, is something we clearly don't need to do. What Rodgers will be doing is keeping everyone on script. Cliche though it is, within the club they'll be taking one game at a time, preparing thoroughly for the unique challenge each game presents in order to put in the best performance possible.

Since September 2019 we have been in the top 4 for all but 1 week and during that time we've been there longer than any other team including Liverpool, Man City and United. That level of consistency augers well for the last 5 games whoever we have to play. In addition, we go into these games with a 7 point advantage and a superior goal difference to our rivals. Even if we were only to pick up 5 points, which would equate to our disastrous 1 point per game run over the last 7 games of last season, one of the chasing pack would then have to win 4 and draw 1 of their last 5 games to overhaul us. Also, our form going into these last 5 games is far superior to what we were showing at the tail end of last season, and we have a fitter, deeper squad this time around. Finally, this year we are not being hunted down by a team that was winning almost every game, by hook or by crook, like Man U were last season. As fans we are emotionally invested and tend to be overly pessimistic but, by every possible indicator: points per game average, form and fitness we should be able to cross that finish line. Let's just hope that for the sake of our blood pressure it happens sooner rather than later!   .

[Wolfox]

Someone posted FIVETHIRTYEIGHT predictions a few weeks back….
 

@Woofis a big fan of this stats site too and Woof knows about these things !

 

in summary it’s looking good

 

 

[Woof]

It's certainly looking good but only probable not certain, as we discovered last year 

[Wolfox]

21 minutes ago, Woof said:

It's certainly looking good but only probable not certain, as we discovered last year 

Hush…. Lightning can’t strike twice!

[Sampson]

3 hours ago, Wolfox said:

Someone posted FIVETHIRTYEIGHT predictions a few weeks back….
 

@Woofis a big fan of this stats site too and Woof knows about these things !

 

in summary it’s looking good

 

 

Pretty sure the BBC said we were >99% chance of making it in the covid break when people were discussing whether the league should be voided or not as well...

[Deeg67]

4 hours ago, Wolfox said:

Someone posted FIVETHIRTYEIGHT predictions a few weeks back….
 

@Woofis a big fan of this stats site too and Woof knows about these things !

 

in summary it’s looking good

 

 

Yes, the same 538 which had us at 98% to make the CL last season.  I like the site and their methodology is fine, but it’s still just an educated guess.  

[ARM1968]

3 hours ago, Wolfox said:

Hush…. Lightning can’t strike twice!

You moron 🤣

[UpTheLeagueFox]

With five games to go:

 

LAST SEASON: Third place. Three points clear over fifth place (Man Utd, who'd won 6 in 8) with a squad being pulled to pieces and performances/results on the slide.

THIS SEASON: Third place. Seven points clear over fifth place (West Ham, who've lost their last 2), in form and with almost a fully fit squad

 

Looking good  

[Deeg67]

Cockiness setting in. Don’t like it, even among fans.

[KFS]

This is with us winning next two and losing last three with a heavy weighting on ‘big six’ wins. It’s basically Liverpool and Chelsea we have to worry about. West Ham, Everton and Spurs have enough tricky games in the mix that I don’t really see them bothering us. 
 

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

[OntarioFox]

Still surprised that people keep assuming that West Ham are less likely than Chelsea to make the top four at our expense.

 

Their run in is a piece of piss by comparison. An inconsistent Everton are the only direct rival left to play - otherwise it's Burnley, West Brom, Southampton and Brighton. The Hammers could feasibly be getting 12, 13, even 15 points in their current form.

 

Chelsea also have to play us which - if we do beat them - will put a little daylight between us if all goes well. Get past that Fulham fixture they have coming up - which itself is far from a formality with them fighting for survival - and their run-in is tough with Arsenal and Man City still to come, plus a decent Villa side on the final day.

 

It's absolutely feasible if we can pull a result against them that us and West Ham both make it at their expense. For me, the Chelsea game is the season-defining game for us. Win that and top four is a formality.

 

If I were a betting man i'd be down the bookies right now putting twenty quid on the Hammers.

[Ric Flair]

20 minutes ago, OntarioFox said:

Still surprised that people keep assuming that West Ham are less likely than Chelsea to make the top four at our expense.

 

Their run in is a piece of piss by comparison. An inconsistent Everton are the only direct rival left to play - otherwise it's Burnley, West Brom, Southampton and Brighton. The Hammers could feasibly be getting 12, 13, even 15 points in their current form.

 

Chelsea also have to play us which - if we do beat them - will put a little daylight between us if all goes well. Get past that Fulham fixture they have coming up - which itself is far from a formality with them fighting for survival - and their run-in is tough with Arsenal and Man City still to come, plus a decent Villa side on the final day.

 

It's absolutely feasible if we can pull a result against them that us and West Ham both make it at their expense. For me, the Chelsea game is the season-defining game for us. Win that and top four is a formality.

 

If I were a betting man i'd be down the bookies right now putting twenty quid on the Hammers.

It's funny how things can be spun, they absolutely have an easy run in but their form if you analyse it hasn't been that good. There were serious alarm bells ringing vs Arsenal, Wolves and us and then they were garbage vs Newcastle and the Chelsea game was a game they seemed unable to find any spark.

 

They've started to get injuries and suspensions and it's now how they can dust themselves down and tackle these final few games. I think their next 2 will be hard for them, away at Burnley off their back of their 4 nil hammering of Wolves won't be an easy gig and then the Everton game is a game that both need to win and anything other than a win makes top 4 very difficult to achieve. 

 

[Bptiger]

I think we must win the next to games and take 3 points from the last 3 games, and I think that will get us home 

[fuchsntf]

10 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Chelsea’s run in is arguably as tough as ours, Liverpool have a comfortable run of winnable games after the Man Utd game so could do with Liverpool not winning.

Its in our hands, we seem mentally stronger this season and are about at full strength bar JJ and Barnes, I think we’ll win on Friday and be able to relax watching the other weekend results come in.

I would still like to see us have ambitions to Chase down Manutd, and believe also we   can fend off the 4-7th positions challenges....

So L'pool drawing or even beating Manutd.....I See as a positive outcome...

I wont Play the "ifs"  and get myself in a tissy....It upto is to the Team to Grab this chance, I will sit back & Enjoy the ride....!!

[Vardinio'sCat]

8 hours ago, Wolfox said:

Someone posted FIVETHIRTYEIGHT predictions a few weeks back….
 

@Woofis a big fan of this stats site too and Woof knows about these things !

 

in summary it’s looking good

 

 

 

538 is led by a guy called Nate Silver, a very influential US polling analyst and all round stats man.

 

His use of data is always on point.

 

 

Edited 28 April 2021 by Vardinio'sCat

[KingsX]

9 hours ago, Wolfox said:

Someone posted FIVETHIRTYEIGHT predictions a few weeks back….
 

@Woofis a big fan of this stats site too and Woof knows about these things !

 

in summary it’s looking good

 

 

 

I recheck this after each relevant match.  (A good way to drive myself crazy.)

 

Our loss to WHU knocked us down from a 66% chance (of top 4) to 51%, but it’s been all uphill from there.  Two each of City wins, Liverpool draws and WHU losses have put us into our strongest position all season.  The chasing pack are nearly out of games.

 

Four points from the next two and we will be very hard to catch.  Win them both, and it's virtually over.

[reynard]

10 hours ago, Woof said:

It's certainly looking good but only probable not certain, as we discovered last year 

Agree. Next two matches must be won in my opinion. It would be a big boost to our chances if Man utd were to beat Liverpool.

 

Chelsea have a tricky run in and now an absolutely great chance of making the final of the Champions League which they could easily win.

 

Like to see Arsenal dumped out of the Europa League too as that would mean 4th would definitely get in to the Champions League. Right now we need to be targeting 3rd place.

There is a chance it might go to the last game against Spurs with us needing a win or a draw to be certain.

Edited 28 April 2021 by reynard

[turlo]

6 points from the next two would put is in a very strong position but 4 wouldn't be disaster either. Looking at their fixtures of our main top 4 rivals they all have 1 tough fixture in the next 2 games and by next weekend I think we'll be in a position where Spurs are out of the running and at least 2 of Chelsea, West Ham & Liverpool have dropped points. 

[KrefelderFox666]

6 hours ago, OntarioFox said:

Still surprised that people keep assuming that West Ham are less likely than Chelsea to make the top four at our expense.

 

Their run in is a piece of piss by comparison. An inconsistent Everton are the only direct rival left to play - otherwise it's Burnley, West Brom, Southampton and Brighton. The Hammers could feasibly be getting 12, 13, even 15 points in their current form.

 

Chelsea also have to play us which - if we do beat them - will put a little daylight between us if all goes well. Get past that Fulham fixture they have coming up - which itself is far from a formality with them fighting for survival - and their run-in is tough with Arsenal and Man City still to come, plus a decent Villa side on the final day.

 

It's absolutely feasible if we can pull a result against them that us and West Ham both make it at their expense. For me, the Chelsea game is the season-defining game for us. Win that and top four is a formality.

 

If I were a betting man i'd be down the bookies right now putting twenty quid on the Hammers.

Current form being losses to Newcastle and Chelsea?

 

I agree we should write no one off but it feels that Chelsea are much more likely to stay in 4th than West Ham catch them. However, anything can happen.

 

The good thing is that everything is in our own hands, even if we lose the next 2/3 games.

 

As @UpTheLeagueFox says above, compared to last season we are already ahead of the curve and in a better position in many ways. And we were trying to hold off a consistent team and one with title winning form. None of the teams below us this season are as dangerous.

Edited 28 April 2021 by KrefelderFox666

[Wolfox]

10 hours ago, Sampson said:

Pretty sure the BBC said we were >99% chance of making it in the covid break when people were discussing whether the league should be voided or not as well...

 

 

9 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

Yes, the same 538 which had us at 98% to make the CL last season.  I like the site and their methodology is fine, but it’s still just an educated guess.  

At the point those estimates were made they were fair estimates…. We were (lest we forget) 5000/1 at one stage and bucked the odds

 

538 is a pretty good indicator, because as you say @Deeg67 there methodology is sound…

 

85% is fantastic….  I’m still not relaxed until it’s 100% though !

 

[Gerard]

5 hours ago, KingsX said:

 

I recheck this after each relevant match.  (A good way to drive myself crazy.)

 

Our loss to WHU knocked us down from a 66% chance (of top 4) to 51%, but it’s been all uphill from there.  Two each of City wins, Liverpool draws and WHU losses have put us into our strongest position all season.  The chasing pack are nearly out of games.

 

Four points from the next two and we will be very hard to catch.  Win them both, and it's virtually over.

 

For comparison on Betfair the current implied chances are:

 

Leicester 82%

Chelsea 65%

----------------------------

Liverpool 30.5%

West Ham 13%

Tottenham 9.5%

Everton 3.5%

 

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.171685558

Edited 28 April 2021 by Gerard

[weller54]

38 minutes ago, Wolfox said:

 

 

At the point those estimates were made they were fair estimates…. We were (lest we forget) 5000/1 at one stage and bucked the odds

 

538 is a pretty good indicator, because as you say @Deeg67 there methodology is sound…

 

85% is fantastic….  I’m still not relaxed until it’s 100% though !

 

I'll breath easier when it's 101%.

[Gerard]

6 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

I would still like to see us have ambitions to Chase down Manutd, and believe also we   can fend off the 4-7th positions challenges....

So L'pool drawing or even beating Manutd.....I See as a positive outcome...

I wont Play the "ifs"  and get myself in a tissy....It upto is to the Team to Grab this chance, I will sit back & Enjoy the ride....!!

 

Will you still be cheering on Liverpool if we fail to beat Southampton?

 

It's crazy to put more value on second than it is on securing top four. In my book you either win it or are nowhere, who cares who finished runner up, people only remember the winners.

 

I made the analogy to my pal last night for those putting more value on 2nd at the expense of finishing 5th.  It's like having £900 in your pocket but because some people want a £1,000 they're prepared to spin a coin and risk that £900 to win the extra £100 on a very poor value bet.

 

Finishing 2nd to 3rd or 4th isn't a big drop off in terms of value to the club

Finishing 4th instead of 5th is absolutely massive to the club.

[OrielCaziado]

I can’t believe people actually want Liverpool to get a result this weekend.  The quicker we get this top four spot sorted the better. A win on Friday and a Liverpool defeat and it’s possibly one round of games away.  If it’s secured at home to Newcastle the week after that massively increases our chances in the FA Cup for me as we aren’t playing a massive pressure full match a few days before our first final in over fifty years. A bad result on Friday and a Liverpool win and that league table will make even the more confident of us start to fear the worse again.