2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Rigga]

Exactly the above ..

[FoxOnWheels]

41 minutes ago, OrielCaziado said:

I can’t believe people actually want Liverpool to get a result this weekend.  The quicker we get this top four spot sorted the better. A win on Friday and a Liverpool defeat and it’s possibly one round of games away.  If it’s secured at home to Newcastle the week after that massively increases our chances in the FA Cup for me as we aren’t playing a massive pressure full match a few days before our first final in over fifty years. A bad result on Friday and a Liverpool win and that league table will make even the more confident of us start to fear the worse again. 

Couldn’t agree more!! Had people wanting the similar situation last season look how that turned out 

[fox_up_north]

Any result that puts daylight between 4th and 5th - whoever they may be - is fine by me. The quicker we can make 4th a certainty, giving us time to prepare for the cup final - is fine by me. If we can stay third with a win at Southampton, while United beat Liverpool and take them out of the race, while Everton beat West Ham - happy days. 

 

Ideally, I want Chelsea focused on going for UCL while we have third, Arsenal to blow it in EL - in case things go wrong - and for us to have all the energy into FA cup. 

[Gerard]

I see the table like this: our points total versus our opponents maximum total. Every time we get a result I can add points to our total and every time our opponents drop points I'll take it off their maximum possible points.

 

Chelsea 73

West Ham 70

--------------------------

Everton 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

Leeds 62

Leicester 62

 

If people are cheering on Liverpool away at Man Utd and they win then Liverpool are certainly equipped to win their last four which leaves us needing two wins and two draws from our last five games. It's absolutely mental that anyone wants Liverpool to win at Man Utd and I can only surmise they have no grasp of the situation..

[HereBeFoxes]

I want us to get 3rd at the moment, so all results preferences are based on maximising the chances of that.  Ergo Man U win > draw > LFC win. 

[filbertway]

1 hour ago, Gerard said:

 

Will you still be cheering on Liverpool if we fail to beat Southampton?

 

It's crazy to put more value on second than it is on securing top four. In my book you either win it or are nowhere, who cares who finished runner up, people only remember the winners.

 

I made the analogy to my pal last night for those putting more value on 2nd at the expense of finishing 5th.  It's like having £900 in your pocket but because some people want a £1,000 they're prepared to spin a coin and risk that £900 to win the extra £100 on a very poor value bet.

 

Finishing 2nd to 3rd or 4th isn't a big drop off in terms of value to the club

Finishing 4th instead of 5th is absolutely massive to the club.

Not really, I don't see how having more positive targets is detrimental. If you're looking up the league rather than panicking what's behind you, then to me it shows a confidence and desire to do as well as possible. Much better than hoping to meekly cross the line.

 

I'd love the hear that the talk around the training ground is of the players wanting to hunt down United's spot rather than hiding behind the sofa when someone 6/7 points behind us is playing. Seems a weak mindset.

[HighPeakFox]

14 minutes ago, Gerard said:

I see the table like this: our points total versus our opponents maximum total. Every time we get a result I can add points to our total and every time our opponents drop points I'll take it off their maximum possible points.

 

Chelsea 73

West Ham 70

--------------------------

Everton 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

Leeds 62

Leicester 62

I like this way of looking at things. 

[Gerard]

1 minute ago, filbertway said:

Not really, I don't see how having more positive targets is detrimental. If you're looking up the league rather than panicking what's behind you, then to me it shows a confidence and desire to do as well as possible. Much better than hoping to meekly cross the line.

 

I'd love the hear that the talk around the training ground is of the players wanting to hunt down United's spot rather than hiding behind the sofa when someone 6/7 points behind us is playing. Seems a weak mindset.

 

It's not a weak mindset, it's pragmatic.

 

The players should not concern themselves too much with points totals but trying to win the next football match.

 

There are some on here who would prefer to see Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool all on 69pts so we have a better chance of getting second rather than Man Utd 75pts, Chelsea 69pts and Liverpool 64pts.

[HighPeakFox]

I can see all points on this. Beat Southampton and I'll probably care a lot less about the outcome of Man Utd vs Liverpool. 

[filbertway]

9 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

It's not a weak mindset, it's pragmatic.

 

The players should not concern themselves too much with points totals but trying to win the next football match.

 

There are some on here who would prefer to see Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool all on 69pts so we have a better chance of getting second rather than Man Utd 75pts, Chelsea 69pts and Liverpool 64pts.

In my mind the two are interchangable

 

Either way, I said it after the West Ham loss. We'll win our next 5 and everything will be rosey. 3 down, 2 to go. It was the perfect run of games against teams lacking confidence or just being worse than us.

[Grebfromgrebland]

Top 4 might not be good enough, we need top 3 to be sure of Champions League next season

[Benji]

At the risk of being told to read back on the thread properly or one of many others, my [lazy] question is what happens if Chelsea win the Champions League and Arsenal win the Europa League, but both finish outside the top 4?  Is it just the top 3 who qualify?

 

Nevermind: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56787573 

Edited 28 April 2021 by Benji

[Byson]

I personally like all of you deep down you want both, I believe top4 and FA cup is definitely ours to lose.

[KrefelderFox666]

31 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

Top 4 might not be good enough, we need top 3 to be sure of Champions League next season

In that scenario we are currently 7 ahead of West Ham, 8 ahead of Liverpool and 9 ahead of Spurs (as Chelsea are irrelevant as you are suggesting they could finish 5th or lower and win CL). I still fancy our chances with 5 games to go. None of those teams will win 5 matches. Let's say at best someone gets 4 wins. We would need one more win and a couple of draws maybe in that case. I still don't think any of those three teams will get more than 10 points from their remaining fixtures. Which means one more win would seal the deal for us.

[gw_leics772]

1 hour ago, Gerard said:

I see the table like this: our points total versus our opponents maximum total. Every time we get a result I can add points to our total and every time our opponents drop points I'll take it off their maximum possible points.

 

Chelsea 73

West Ham 70

--------------------------

Everton 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

Leeds 62

Leicester 62

 

If people are cheering on Liverpool away at Man Utd and they win then Liverpool are certainly equipped to win their last four which leaves us needing two wins and two draws from our last five games. It's absolutely mental that anyone wants Liverpool to win at Man Utd and I can only surmise they have no grasp of the situation..

My inner spreadsheet geek really likes this.

 

Edit, in fact so much so, I'm spreadsheeting it now!

Edited 28 April 2021 by gw_leics772

[Gerard]

4 minutes ago, gw_leics772 said:

My inner spreadsheet geek really likes this.

 

Edit, in fact so much so, I'm spreadsheeting it now!

The good thing about that table is it can never get any worse and can only improve. 

[Fox in the North]

Just want top 4 as soon as possible after last season, preferably 3rd to avoid any double European glory from the greedy 6. If we’re fortunate to think about competing for 2nd then that would be a nice bonus. After securing Champions League football, all eyes should be on the FA Cup. 

[Nalis]

1 hour ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

Top 4 might not be good enough, we need top 3 to be sure of Champions League next season

I think if we finish 4th the most likely team to finish in 3rd would be Chelsea anyway so I'm not concerned about the Arsenal Europa League/ Chelsea Champions League scenario as that would be redundant. Not concerned yet anyway.

Edited 28 April 2021 by Nalis

[nnfox]

At the end of the day we can only affect our own results.  If we beat Southampton then honestly I'm not that bothered by the Liverpool result.  If we lose, then that's slightly different.  I'd happily take Utd and Liverpool drawing right now.

 

I still think any two wins will probably be enough.  One win might even do it, but regardless, we have a massive say in who qualifies given that we play Chelsea and Spurs.

 

I think finishing 2nd in the league in this era would be phenomenal.  Coupled with an FA Cup final, it's epic.

[CosbehFox]

Win two, it will be about done. Get 4 points, it will be squeezy bum trying to a get a point or win in them final three. 

 

Everton could be a danger with their fixtures. 

[Yes]

11 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Win two, it will be about done. Get 4 points, it will be squeezy bum trying to a get a point or win in them final three. 

 

Everton could be a danger with their fixtures. 

I actually thought Everton’s fixtures look quite difficult, Villa, West Ham, Sheff U, Wolves and Man City, also think they’re the least likely to go and win 3 or 4 on the bounce.

 

Liverpool’s are the most worrying, after Man United its basically all teams who have nothing to play for.

[Deeg67]

All due respect to those who think otherwise - everyone is entitled to an option.  But if you're rooting for Liverpool to beat Man. U., you're flipping nuts.

[Lichfieldfox.]

1 minute ago, Deeg67 said:

All due respect to those who think otherwise - everyone is entitled to an option.  But if you're rooting for Liverpool to beat Man. U., you're flipping nuts.

I'm nuts then. Does anyone really think Liverpool will gain 8 more points than us in next 5 games? Statistically we have a far better chance of getting ahead of Man Utd especially if they lose to Liverpool and us.

[Gerard]

1 minute ago, Lichfieldfox. said:

I'm nuts then. Does anyone really think Liverpool will gain 8 more points than us in next 5 games? Statistically we have a far better chance of getting ahead of Man Utd especially if they lose to Liverpool and us.

 

If Liverpool beat Man Utd their remaining fixtures are:

 

Southampton & Palace at home.

West Brom & Burnley away.

 

They could quite feasibly win all of those and force us to get 70pts as their GD would likely be superior to ours.

 

We then have to W2, D2, L1 from:

 

Newcastle & Tottenham at home.

Southampton, Man Utd & Chelsea away.

 

IMO you fail to grasp the situation because you've put more value on finishing 2nd than you realise the chances of finishing 5th. If Liverpool win all their games then we have little room for error in our fixtures and maybe forced to get a result away at Man Utd or Chelsea. You can't sniff the danger and are oblivious to what could be lying ahead.

[coolhandfox]

Love how people seem to think West Ham, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton are going to win the last 5.

 

Only West Ham have managed to win 5 in the last 10

 

Spur have won 5 in the last 11

 

Everton have won 5 in the last 12

 

Liverpool have won 5 in the last 13

 

Edited 28 April 2021 by coolhandfox