2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Les-TA-Jon]

UPDATE 26th April 

 

Doing a pre-emptive update now, because I'll be tucked up in bed straight after the match 

 

So see below for Win, Draw or Loss.

 

(I have binned off Arsenal, for they are an irrelevance)

 

As I've said all along - eyes on the prize - 68 points should be it! 3 wins will do it. Also note that the fixture list is very favourable. We play Palace and Soton before anyone else plays again, so we've the opportunity to get 4-6 points and really get ahead, which would be huge psychologically. 

 

After Chelsea's win and Liverpool's draw, you can see that if we win any 3 games of the 6 remaining, every other team would need 2.6 points per game or more. Chelsea would need 2 points per game. 

 

So if we get to 68 points, it's a huge mountain for every other team - to visualise that a bit more, here's the form required for the others if we get 68 points:

 

 

Win

 

 

 

Draw

 

 

 

Loss

 

 

 

Fixtures

 

 

 

 

Edited 26 April 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Leicester_Loyal]

Cheers for the update.

 

I have a feeling 67 will end up being enough, can't see any of the others not losing a game, and we have a much better GD than WHU and Everton if they do hit 67.

[dynamark]

Id be concerned about having to play full strength in a league game v Chelsea a few days before the final .Much rather they dont get a preview of our team and play until it hits them on cup final day

[enmac]

5 hours ago, Motty said:

As it stands 12 points needed to guarantee top 4 (71}

hopefully this will change as teams chasing drop points.

WHam 5 games max 70

Everton 6 games Max 70

Liverpool 5 games Max 69

Tottenham 5 games Max 68

Villa 6 games Max 63

Leeds 5 Games Max 62

Arsenal 5 games Max 61

 

City's gd is so much better than West Ham's and Everton's. 11 and 17 that 70 points is effectively the maximum needed. 

[Buce]

6 hours ago, enmac said:

City's gd is so much better than West Ham's and Everton's. 11 and 17 that 70 points is effectively the maximum needed. 

 

I'm not sure that's relevent. For them to catch us implies their gd will improve while ours will regress.

[Clever Fox]

I've thought for a while that 68 is the Magic number but it could be even less than that.

 

If we can win tonight that will be a big step as I see Palace as the most dangerous of these next 3 games.

[Leicester_Loyal]

6 hours ago, enmac said:

City's gd is so much better than West Ham's and Everton's. 11 and 17 that 70 points is effectively the maximum needed. 

 

42 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I'm not sure that's relevent. For them to catch us implies their gd will improve while ours will regress.

Ours is +21, WHU have +10 and Everton have +4. They'll struggle to overturn that, even if they catch us on points.

 

Not sure where Enmac got his figures from

[enmac]

7 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Ours is +21, WHU have +10 and Everton have +4. They'll struggle to overturn that, even if they catch us on points.

 

Not sure where Enmac got his figures from

I agree unless there's a complete disaster. 

21-10=11

21-4=17

The difference between the gds. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Just now, enmac said:

I agree unless there's a complete disaster. 

21-10=11

21-4=17

The difference between the gds. 

Dunno how I missed that, makes more sense now, cheers!

[Buce]

11 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Ours is +21, WHU have +10 and Everton have +4. They'll struggle to overturn that, even if they catch us on points.

 

Not sure where Enmac got his figures from

 

For WH to catch us would mean at least two losses for us, at least two wins for them, requiring a swing of 2.5 per game. Not impossible, if unlikely.

 

Everton I'll give you.

[enmac]

53 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I'm not sure that's relevent. For them to catch us implies their gd will improve while ours will regress.

I think you're being unduly pessimistic. We've conceded 37 goals in 32 games, many of which we had one CB injured. If all 3 stay fit there's no way we'll concede worse than that. 

[enmac]

3 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Dunno how I missed that, makes more sense now, cheers!

It's pre match nerves! 

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, enmac said:

I think you're being unduly pessimistic. We've conceded 37 goals in 32 games, many of which we had one CB injured. If all 3 stay fit there's no way we'll concede worse than that. 

 

No, you misunderstand.

 

I don't expect them to catch us at all - I'm just responding to the suggested hyperthetical scenario presented.

Edited 26 April 2021 by Buce

[Motty]

7 hours ago, enmac said:

City's gd is so much better than West Ham's and Everton's. 11 and 17 that 70 points is effectively the maximum needed. 

a really good win tonight would increase that goal difference. 

If we can get 7 points from the next 3 games and avoid defeat to Man u and beat Chelsea then 3rd should be secured

[Motty]

16 hours ago, Motty said:

As it stands 12 points needed to guarantee top 4 (71}

hopefully this will change as teams chasing drop points.

WHam 5 games max 70

Everton 6 games Max 70

Liverpool 5 games Max 69

Tottenham 5 games Max 68

Villa 6 games Max 63

Leeds 5 Games Max 62 hanging by a thread

Arsenal bye bye

 

updated

Edited 26 April 2021 by Motty

[TJB-fox]

Certainly looking better after a good 3 points earlier this evening. Honestly if we go to saints on Friday and beat them the table will be looking simply unreal 

[foxes_rule1978]

3 minutes ago, TJB-fox said:

Certainly looking better after a good 3 points earlier this evening. Honestly if we go to saints on Friday and beat them the table will be looking simply unreal 

10 ahead with only 15 on the table if we beat the saints on Friday... and Southampton seriously look done 

[Blue ROI]

I reckon 2 more wins should be just about enough. Easier said then done but getting 1 win in the last 3 games would be huge.

[Gerard]

2 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

10 ahead with only 15 on the table if we beat the saints on Friday... and Southampton seriously look done 

 

it wouldn't be comfortable but three more points out the last five will do it more times than not. 

 

Liverpool have the highest point expectation out of the clubs outside the top four and it's only 64.5pts. 

 

Ideally we'll beat both Southampton and Newcastle and that will almost certainly be enough and then we can focus on the FA Cup. It would be great to be home and hosed before the Man Utd game.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

13 hours ago, dynamark said:

Id be concerned about having to play full strength in a league game v Chelsea a few days before the final .Much rather they dont get a preview of our team and play until it hits them on cup final day

Isn't the same true of them though? They might go full strength if they need points for top four and we get a preview of them.

[Lineker's Lugs]

28 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

it wouldn't be comfortable but three more points out the last five will do it more times than not. 

 

Liverpool have the highest point expectation out of the clubs outside the top four and it's only 64.5pts. 

 

Ideally we'll beat both Southampton and Newcastle and that will almost certainly be enough and then we can focus on the FA Cup. It would be great to be home and hosed before the Man Utd game.

Liverpool are still the team I'm concerned about, but it makes no real sense - they're 8 points behind with 5 matches left, having only caught up 2 points over the last 5.

 

The natural pessimism of the football supporter overcomes logic I suppose!

 

 

[Lichfieldfox.]

40 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Isn't the same true of them though? They might go full strength if they need points for top four and we get a preview of them.

Surely the Chelsea league game will have to be after the FA Cup final due to their fixtures. My guess is Wed 18th May.

Oh and I think we will give Man Utd a close run for second; I fancy Liverpool to beat them as Manure will be focused on Europa League. If we beat them we may nip ahead of them briefly assuming we dispatch Soton and Newcastle who hopefully will have their flip flops on. 

[Dan LCFC]

We do it now in my opinion. We're not quite there yet, but I don't think we blow this. I said I wanted four wins from the last two and next two, and still do, but I think results elsewhere have eased the pressure somewhat.

 

Iheanacho has timed this perfectly.

[foxes_rule1978]

Just now, Dan LCFC said:

We do it now in my opinion. We're not quite there yet, but I don't think we blow this. I said I wanted four wins from the last two and next two, and still do, but I think results elsewhere have eased the pressure somewhat.

 

Iheanacho has timed this perfectly.

It is the manner we come back against palace that has made me believe... last season isn’t going to be repeated 

[Dan LCFC]

Just now, foxes_rule1978 said:

It is the manner we come back against palace that has made me believe... last season isn’t going to be repeated 

Agreed. I think last season, we blow the Southampton semi, we blow the West Brom game, and we probably blow tonight as well.

 

Neither tonight or Southampton were convincing but we got the results. We've got more about us this season.