The Run In...

[Number 6]

8 minutes ago, honeybradger said:

You could say the same for us, yes Leeds lost 1-6 against a Liverpool side who are playing at 100% in all their games to try and regain some confidence. Man City on the other hand used our match as an opportunity to get some rest before the Bayern Munich midweek match, if they were in the same situation as liverpool they would have blown us out equally as much if not more.

 

Also I think beating leeds with our team as it is is a big 'if', we havent won a game in over 2 months. Outside of that game their fixtures arent worse enough than ours to suggest that we can confidently pick up 4 points more than them and finish above them. Current i would say it's 80% likely that leeds finish above us.

Fixtures are fairly similar, but in the three differing fixtures between us they play Bournemouth, Man C, and Spurs. While we play Wolves, Liverpool, and Everton. I think we can beat their points total over those 3 (and would probably be expected to), but whether we finish above them or not probably depends on the result against them next week. Actually given we both probably have better fixtures this month, we'll know a lot by the end of April.

[SuperMike]

12 minutes ago, AKCJ said:

...and we're honking  

.....And we NEVER, EVER seem to win games of football 

[ClaphamFox]

12 minutes ago, honeybradger said:

You could say the same for us, yes Leeds lost 1-6 against a Liverpool side who are playing at 100% in all their games to try and regain some confidence. Man City on the other hand used our match as an opportunity to get some rest before the Bayern Munich midweek match, if they were in the same situation as liverpool they would have blown us out equally as much if not more.

 

Also I think beating leeds with our team as it is is a big 'if', we havent won a game in over 2 months. Outside of that game their fixtures arent worse enough than ours to suggest that we can confidently pick up 4 points more than them and finish above them. Current i would say it's 80% likely that leeds finish above us.

Leeds rolled the managerial dice earlier than us and it looks like they chose badly - Gracia seems completely out of his depth and a downgrade on Marsch, which is saying something. 

 

We don't know how our managerial change will play out yet, but if Smith, Shakespeare and Terry can lift the squad's morale and get them playing with more confidence (and there were tentative signs in the 2nd half on Saturday that they might just do that), we can overtake Leeds. Judging from the Waccoe forum this morning, it seems that most Leeds fans think they're already down...

[Les-TA-Jon]

 

Looking at the table, Palace, Wolves, Bournemouth all largely safe. West Ham close to it. We might actually benefit from them becoming safer, because then our game vs West Ham on last day could be a dead rubber for them. 

 

Looking like 3 out of the current bottom 5

 

 

Oh and here's everyone's points totals for the reverse fixtures of their remaining fixtures:

 

Edited 18 April 2023 by Les-TA-Jon

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

 

Looking at the table, Palace, Wolves, Bournemouth all largely safe. West Ham close to it. We might actually benefit from them becoming safer, because then our game vs West Ham on last day could be a dead rubber for them. 

 

Looking like 3 out of the current bottom 5

 

But Everton still to play all three of those !

And forest finish at palace 

 

 

[FoxyLeon]

12 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I think we looked a little better on Saturday wrt to conceding shots 

tbh, we probably get a draw against the all conquering villa without KDH red card 

the Bournemouth performance is a huge worry considering the way we dealt with the whole situation on a mental level.  The new coaching staff have their biggest task in sorting that out ahead of Saturday 

 

We were 3-0 down within 25 minutes, it was clear visually that Man City stepped off. Crystal Palace had 20 shots against us in the 1st half because the game was still in the balance, they had the same intensity throughout the match at 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 because the result was in the balance. Let's say that Man City were only behind Arsenal by a goal difference of 6....There's no way they would have dropped their intensity, and no doubt it would've been just like Palace.

We were just as poor at either end against Man City - The difference was we played a higher quality side so they were able to kill us off quicker and stroll for around 70 minutes.

[J. James]

22 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

 

Looking at the table, Palace, Wolves, Bournemouth all largely safe. West Ham close to it. We might actually benefit from them becoming safer, because then our game vs West Ham on last day could be a dead rubber for them. 

 

Looking like 3 out of the current bottom 5

 

 

Oh and here's everyone's points totals for the reverse fixtures of their remaining fixtures:

 

This is good work and quite informative too.

The reverse fixtures points totals for us are especially surprising (and encouraging).

[st albans fox]

55 minutes ago, J. James said:

This is good work and quite informative too.

The reverse fixtures points totals for us are especially surprising (and encouraging).

Is there any evidence that reverse fixtures correlate with first results?

[daddylonglegs]

12 hours ago, Conscript Fox said:

Well didn't this age well

They have now conceded 11 in 180 minutes & 16 in the last 4 games.

 

Get ahead of them & they'll shatter. They're already folding. 

 

Southampton 

Leeds

Forest or Leicester will drop. 

They're 4 points ahead of us mate! We've earnt 4 points in the last 3 months, so i think they'd rather be in their position than ours!

[cruzFOX]

Southampton look like they have sunk and have grabbed one hand on our ankle as we start to sink with them unless we start to win by grabbing that rope of hope and climbing out of this. Let Southampton take someone else down instead. Sorry for the weird dreamlike analogy

[Lambert09]

9 hours ago, LCFCJohn said:

See I’m not overly concerned about this. For me, it’s been about the mentality of the squad more so than quality. Regardless of whether or not Man City dropped off, the side of this season so far under Rodgers would have still conspired to concede a few more or best case scenario, kept it tight and at 3. The fact we went at them, pulled one back and had further good chances showed a more positive mind set which is the main thing we need in the coming games.

 

Also, I don’t watch Man City ever (unless against us) as I can’t stand watching them. But they tend to get into that sort of position at home most games really so I’d imagine that dropping off in the second half is a more regular occurrence than we think. In which case the fact we caused them problems more so than most teams who have gone there is a positive. 

I get the first point, but on man city, this was different.  They usually go for the jugular, the difference was at half time their manager is resting players and saying jobs done lets worry about the champions league. They dont usually do that... they leave haaland on and tell him to go break some records. 

[ClaphamFox]

43 minutes ago, daddylonglegs said:

They're 4 points ahead of us mate! We've earnt 4 points in the last 3 months, so i think they'd rather be in their position than ours!

You want to try reading their forum - most of them seem convinced they won't get another point this season. 

[Lambert09]

6 hours ago, Chelmofox said:

Watch Smiths post match interview as he makes this point exactly. He said he needed to analyse whether or not Man C's changes led to our improvements. Personally, Thomas looked better than he had for a while, and i'm not sure that one change would have a huge impact as Victor looked out of sorts. Although i think he will stick with Victor. Key points will be elsewhere on the pitch.

Thanks for this. I didnt see his post match, so im glad he acknowledged that.  A very positive sign, because brendan would have been using it to illustrate that his second half tactics worked and not even consider the external factors. 

[Guest bennytwohats]

3 hours ago, J. James said:

This is good work and quite informative too.

The reverse fixtures points totals for us are especially surprising (and encouraging).

Sadly I think they’re also a bit misleading as presumably the reverse fixtures were played in the tail end of the first half of the season which is when we were in a rare hot streak of form which has been rare this season. So I’d argue the reverse totals are more reflective of where we were at that point in time than the quality of the opposition (but happy to be proved wrong).

 

In any case hopefully it gives the players a lift to know the won the reverse fixtures and that sort of lift would not be a bad thing given the lack of belief more generally.

[J. James]

5 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Is there any evidence that reverse fixtures correlate with first results?

Dunno about that but l reserve the right to be encouraged!

[LCFCJohn]

3 hours ago, Lambert09 said:

I get the first point, but on man city, this was different.  They usually go for the jugular, the difference was at half time their manager is resting players and saying jobs done lets worry about the champions league. They dont usually do that... they leave haaland on and tell him to go break some records. 

Ok fair enough. By my own admission, I make a point of not watching them. I didn’t make it clear enough it was more of what I suspected.

 

Even so, I do think if it gives us a boost it’s fine. We will see on Saturday!

[Ric Flair]

If we can get to the Liverpool home game on 35 points then I'd be extremely happy. It allows for a tough two games vs them and away at Newcastle and then West Ham are likely safe so we'd hopefully be in a far better place to take advantage of that and get the 3 points to get us to 38 points and that should comfortably be enough.

 

So 3 wins and a draw from our next 4 😳😳

[Clever Fox]

Sound good.

With Soyuncu back in the fold to strengthen the defence I think we can do it. 

Personally I'd move Faes into midfield for his on the Ball skills and pace.

 We really need that first win to give everyone a lift.

Let's hope it's Saturday.

[J. James]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

If we can get to the Liverpool home game on 35 points then I'd be extremely happy. It allows for a tough two games vs them and away at Newcastle and then West Ham are likely safe so we'd hopefully be in a far better place to take advantage of that and get the 3 points to get us to 38 points and that should comfortably be enough.

 

So 3 wins and a draw from our next 4 😳😳

Hope it happens but I'd call it extremely ambitious and most unikely.

Just gotta get ahead of our rivals, put pressure on them and match their results.

[st albans fox]

9 hours ago, FoxyLeon said:

 

We were 3-0 down within 25 minutes, it was clear visually that Man City stepped off. Crystal Palace had 20 shots against us in the 1st half because the game was still in the balance, they had the same intensity throughout the match at 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 because the result was in the balance. Let's say that Man City were only behind Arsenal by a goal difference of 6....There's no way they would have dropped their intensity, and no doubt it would've been just like Palace.

We were just as poor at either end against Man City - The difference was we played a higher quality side so they were able to kill us off quicker and stroll for around 70 minutes.

Whilst the game was still alive and Man City were pushing, they did not have the same easy access to our penalty area as palace seemed to. We looked more defensively organised. 

[OntarioFox]

8 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Is there any evidence that reverse fixtures correlate with first results?

Southampton and Bournemouth 

[biggs]

I'm losing it to the point on betting on our relegation......go down with drinking money in my pockets (might need it) or I lose a 50 note to stay up.  

[Sol thewall Bamba]

2 hours ago, Clever Fox said:

Sound good.

With Soyuncu back in the fold to strengthen the defence I think we can do it. 

Personally I'd move Faes into midfield for his on the Ball skills and pace.

 We really need that first win to give everyone a lift.

Let's hope it's Saturday.

Shades of Harry Worley being played centre mid at Stoke away May 2008

[surrifox]

9 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Is there any evidence that reverse fixtures correlate with first results?

The spurs and villa results would suggest not 

[dannythefox]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

If we can get to the Liverpool home game on 35 points then I'd be extremely happy. It allows for a tough two games vs them and away at Newcastle and then West Ham are likely safe so we'd hopefully be in a far better place to take advantage of that and get the 3 points to get us to 38 points and that should comfortably be enough.

 

So 3 wins and a draw from our next 4 😳😳

I’d be buzzing if this was the case.