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Posted

Following last week's government alerts sent to our phones regarding fires, I suspect that we might soon be receiving a lot more, but for a different reason. Russia's warning that the UK's supply of drones to Ukraine will 'inevitably carry consequences' seems pretty alarming to me. I'm convinced that we're soon going to be in for a big shock in this country, when Putin's frustration finally boils over and London (and maybe a few Amazon warehouses) get attacked by drones. And because we've been so lukewarm in helping DT's Iran war effort, we're probably more vulnerable than perhaps we like to think.    

  • Like 3
Posted
32 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Following last week's government alerts sent to our phones regarding fires, I suspect that we might soon be receiving a lot more, but for a different reason. Russia's warning that the UK's supply of drones to Ukraine will 'inevitably carry consequences' seems pretty alarming to me. I'm convinced that we're soon going to be in for a big shock in this country, when Putin's frustration finally boils over and London (and maybe a few Amazon warehouses) get attacked by drones. And because we've been so lukewarm in helping DT's Iran war effort, we're probably more vulnerable than perhaps we like to think.    

... which is still better in pretty much every conceivable outcome than being boiling hot on that matter with that man. 

Posted
2 hours ago, String fellow said:

Following last week's government alerts sent to our phones regarding fires, I suspect that we might soon be receiving a lot more, but for a different reason. Russia's warning that the UK's supply of drones to Ukraine will 'inevitably carry consequences' seems pretty alarming to me. I'm convinced that we're soon going to be in for a big shock in this country, when Putin's frustration finally boils over and London (and maybe a few Amazon warehouses) get attacked by drones. And because we've been so lukewarm in helping DT's Iran war effort, we're probably more vulnerable than perhaps we like to think.    

Agreed. Except it won’t be drones, they’ll go all in. It’ll be kalibr cruise missiles from subs parked in the North Sea, if they really want to send a message, they will be nuclear tipped. And then all bets are off. There’s a factory in Leicester near Fosse Park so if you live in that area I’d be stocking up. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
Just now, Lionator said:

Agreed. Except it won’t be drones, they’ll go all in. It’ll be kalibr cruise missiles from subs parked in the North Sea, if they really want to send a message, they will be nuclear tipped. And then all bets are off. There’s a factory in Leicester near Fosse Park so if you live in that area I’d be stocking up. 

Counterpoint; Putin, while a bad hombre, is not certifiably insane.

Posted

In other news, the "Burnham bounce"(?) still having a clear effect on current polling, but there's still nearly three years until the next GE, so who knows what might happen?

Posted
2 hours ago, Lionator said:

Agreed. Except it won’t be drones, they’ll go all in. It’ll be kalibr cruise missiles from subs parked in the North Sea, if they really want to send a message, they will be nuclear tipped. And then all bets are off. There’s a factory in Leicester near Fosse Park so if you live in that area I’d be stocking up. 

Think we would be safe. One country that has stood by Putin is Modi's India and given our large Asian population, he would leave us alone.

Anyway, we've suffered enough with our football team.

Posted
6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Counterpoint; Putin, while a bad hombre, is not certifiably insane.

Read this, this is a guy who sits in Russian foreign policy meetings and leads policy. This is what is coming. Just because we don’t foresee conventional or nuclear war v Russia, doesn’t mean that they don’t.  https://archive.is/20260815181210/https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/kreml-politologe-ukraine-krieg-transformiert-sich-zum-vaterlaendischen-krieg-gegen-den-westen-10272199

Posted
41 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Read this, this is a guy who sits in Russian foreign policy meetings and leads policy. This is what is coming. Just because we don’t foresee conventional or nuclear war v Russia, doesn’t mean that they don’t.  https://archive.is/20260815181210/https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/kreml-politologe-ukraine-krieg-transformiert-sich-zum-vaterlaendischen-krieg-gegen-den-westen-10272199

I would, if it weren't in German (which, sadly, I'm only mildly proficient in).

 

In any case, the point has been obvious for the last 70 odd years; if two nuclear armed powers go to direct war with each other, then either sooner or just a little later both lose along with everyone else. Mutually assured destruction has, and does, hold. The Russians know this as well as anyone.

 

So, unless they are wanting the downfall of their opponents, their own nation and a lot more besides (which fits the description of insanity imo), then that is a line they will not cross.

Posted
43 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I would, if it weren't in German (which, sadly, I'm only mildly proficient in).

 

In any case, the point has been obvious for the last 70 odd years; if two nuclear armed powers go to direct war with each other, then either sooner or just a little later both lose along with everyone else. Mutually assured destruction has, and does, hold. The Russians know this as well as anyone.

 

So, unless they are wanting the downfall of their opponents, their own nation and a lot more besides (which fits the description of insanity imo), then that is a line they will not cross.

Russian mentality is that the west especially Anglo-Saxons want to destroy them and that if Russia can't exist then neither should the rest of the world 

Posted
17 minutes ago, bovril said:

Russian mentality is that the west especially Anglo-Saxons want to destroy them and that if Russia can't exist then neither should the rest of the world 

As much as I think this sentiment may be true, the fact that we're all still here means that it doesn't hold true universally or even often. 

 

If it was, then the lights would have gone on in 1962, or 1983, or any other similar situation in history where the Russians thought they teetered on the edge of destruction. 

 

But maybe the above is due to blind luck and one day our luck will run out. Who knows?

 

NB. They're unfortunately not the only nuclear armed power to have that mentality, either. The Samson Option is very explicit about both its execution and its results. 

  • Like 1
Posted
48 minutes ago, bovril said:

Russian mentality is that the west especially Anglo-Saxons want to destroy them and that if Russia can't exist then neither should the rest of the world 

That's a bold statement.

 

Any evidence that there's any truth in it?

  • Thanks 1
Posted
8 hours ago, SpacedX said:

I this actually serious or satire? I'm leaning towards the latter. It's simply that often when you post I find it hard to differentiate. 

 

"Consequences" - they said the same about stormshadow. A significant part of "consequences" for the UK, has historically involved buzzing our airspace with TU-95 Bears and mass disinformation campaigns manufactured by troll farms in St Petersburg. In the main, further Russian aggression toward the UK would likely involve malicious cyber operations. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) identifies Russian state intelligence and aligned proxy groups as an acute, ongoing threat responsible for sustained digital pressure against British infrastructure, democratic institutions, and networks. I wouldn't rule out sabotage of sub sea infrastructure either. 

It’s called ‘boiling the frog’. You always give snarky responses but history will eventually prove me right even if we won’t be around to see it. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, deep blue said:

That's a bold statement.

 

Any evidence that there's any truth in it?

Putin literally said that. “Why should the world exist if Russia isn’t in it?”. Sounds cool until you realise he alone could destroy every nation on earth. 

  • Like 1
Posted
51 minutes ago, Lionator said:

It’s called ‘boiling the frog’. 

No, it's called making irrational, hyperbolic, sensationalised and baseless statements on a football forum. 

 

52 minutes ago, Lionator said:

 You always give snarky responses 

That was certainly not my intention and my apologies if you perceive it that way. 

 

53 minutes ago, Lionator said:

but history will eventually prove me right even if we won’t be around to see it. 

Right about what precisely?

Posted
3 hours ago, Lionator said:

Read this, this is a guy who sits in Russian foreign policy meetings and leads policy. This is what is coming. Just because we don’t foresee conventional or nuclear war v Russia, doesn’t mean that they don’t.  https://archive.is/20260815181210/https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/kreml-politologe-ukraine-krieg-transformiert-sich-zum-vaterlaendischen-krieg-gegen-den-westen-10272199

What russian politicians say and what they mean is rarely the same thing.

 

They are the masters at saying what they think has the desired effect and song feel it necessary to be based in truth. 

  • Like 1
Posted
10 hours ago, Lionator said:

Agreed. Except it won’t be drones, they’ll go all in. It’ll be kalibr cruise missiles from subs parked in the North Sea, if they really want to send a message, they will be nuclear tipped. And then all bets are off. There’s a factory in Leicester near Fosse Park so if you live in that area I’d be stocking up. 

Er …… no 

Despite the Russians not being known for their subtlety, I expect any message sent would be precisely that 

Eg. probably from the IRGC book of recruiting some local young disaffected via the internet to commit a low grade arson attack 

Posted
5 hours ago, Lionator said:

Read this, this is a guy who sits in Russian foreign policy meetings and leads policy. This is what is coming. Just because we don’t foresee conventional or nuclear war v Russia, doesn’t mean that they don’t.  https://archive.is/20260815181210/https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/kreml-politologe-ukraine-krieg-transformiert-sich-zum-vaterlaendischen-krieg-gegen-den-westen-10272199

Its fine.  We have been training for it for 80 years.

Indeed...  i saw the USN and RN doing joint operations just today off the Dorset coast.

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