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Posted
1 hour ago, Dahnsouff said:

Interesting developments in Belarusian/US relations, with lifting of sanctions, reopening of US embassy in Minsk, freeing prisoners, positive rhetoric.

Remains to be seen if this is part of the larger game at play in Eastern Europe, but hope is hope.

(Even rumours that Lukashenko is not happy about his Purim’s lapdog perception on the global stage, but that could be guff)

Lukashenko does strike me as an opportunist, so if he knows he'll get a better deal he might give Putin the cold shoulder. 

 

Of course, you wouldn't expect Putin to let that go unanswered. 

 

17 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

I guess this comes back to the problem with any such system of size; whether you think it's better to accept some guilty/bad people get away with things to allow everyone who needs to be protected to be covered, or if you're willing to accept the suffering and death of "innocent" people in order to ensure such guilty people don't play the system too. 

 

It's very difficult to strike a balance or come even close to perfection in such systems. 

  • Like 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Suspect it's more a wannabe autocrat looking after an actual one. I've given up pretending to myself that the US are playing chess and trying to think more than a day ahead. 

Trump clearly is guided by impulse and therefore a lot of the other are, but at the same time I reckon there are quite a few of them who definitely have a very dark plan and are looking to put it into effect however possible. Miller, for one. 

Posted (edited)

Yeah. Sadly I don’t think this is a sign that Belarus is starting to tire of Russia, that’s coming from an assumption that the US under Trump is still on our side. I think it’s more a sign that Trump at best doesn’t care and if he does he’s on the side of Russia/Belarus not the side of Ukraine/western & Central Europe.

Edited by Sampson
  • Like 1
Posted

I live in hope regarding Belarus, especially as I work with them, but I also recognise it is likely just further trickery and misdirection by Putin, and his lapdog.... (No not Trump)

Posted

Lukashenko has to play the maintaining Belarusian sovereignty while also being in the Russian sphere and he’s probably done a good job of it. He’s never going to leave the Russia sphere but he absolutely will put things in place to make the USA Russia relationship better.

 

I truly think now Trump has given Putin the go ahead to create his own sphere of influence in Eastern Europe given America is pulling out of the Baltics. If Russia was to attack Estonia (not that they’d be able to invade right now), USA would stay out under trumps leadership. 

Posted
47 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Lukashenko has to play the maintaining Belarusian sovereignty while also being in the Russian sphere and he’s probably done a good job of it. He’s never going to leave the Russia sphere but he absolutely will put things in place to make the USA Russia relationship better.

 

I truly think now Trump has given Putin the go ahead to create his own sphere of influence in Eastern Europe given America is pulling out of the Baltics. If Russia was to attack Estonia (not that they’d be able to invade right now), USA would stay out under trumps leadership. 

If Trump hangs Estonia out to dry, NATO is finished. 

Posted

 "It is part of the price of leadership of this great and free nation to be the target of clever satirists. You have given the gift of laughter to our people. May we never grow so somber or self-important that we fail to appreciate the humor in our lives.” - Lyndon Johnson

 

... historians will marvel at how the US has gone from that to... well, whatever might describe the attitude of the current government towards having the piss taken out of it. 

Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Sly said:

I see Russian jets were in NATO airspace again, this time in Estonia. 

There's a very simple answer to that the next time they try a stunt like this. Give them the exact same treatment Russia would take if a Nato fighter jet entered Russian airspace. 

 

Either that or respond in kind by sending jets into Russian airspace and see what happens. 

Edited by ian__marshall
Posted
33 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

A good idea or not, this (or is the topic matter not really allowed on here)?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cpw1qkyke4nt

 

Should've happened long ago. Especially by the UK considering we were the colonial empire who caused this in the first place (though I guess you could argue for Greece lol)

Posted
7 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Should've happened long ago. Especially by the UK considering we were the colonial empire who caused this in the first place (though I guess you could argue for Greece lol)

Sykes-Picot Agreement. 

Posted
1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Timing might be off, but about time in general.

Something is going on here with the timing which I don’t really understand.  It can’t just be about domestic politics (uk and France). Are Canada and Australia under those pressures to the same extent ??

 

I think the idea is to effectively back the PA and isolate Hams.   But on the ground in the region, the lack of contingency on recognition being attached to Hams removal from power will not be seen like that. The people will see that this didn’t happen from western countries before oct 2023. 
 

it could be a lot to do with West Bank settlement expansion and these countries trying to ‘stick their political flag in the sand’ before it’s too late  - but this is not going to change until after next years GE at the earliest (and dependent on a change in govt). if there is annexation then under Isr law, that’s difficult to reverse. Is annexation more likely after these recognitions?? 

Posted
20 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Something is going on here with the timing which I don’t really understand.  It can’t just be about domestic politics (uk and France). Are Canada and Australia under those pressures to the same extent ??

 

I think the idea is to effectively back the PA and isolate Hams.   But on the ground in the region, the lack of contingency on recognition being attached to Hams removal from power will not be seen like that. The people will see that this didn’t happen from western countries before oct 2023. 
 

it could be a lot to do with West Bank settlement expansion and these countries trying to ‘stick their political flag in the sand’ before it’s too late  - but this is not going to change until after next years GE at the earliest (and dependent on a change in govt). if there is annexation then under Isr law, that’s difficult to reverse. Is annexation more likely after these recognitions?? 

I think this is mostly the idea, because while the policy won't change until after the elections next year (if it does), then it can be clearer now that it is being done under more severe rebuke from an increasing majority of the international community.

 

Of course, given that they're likely not going to stop such landgrabs anyway, then perhaps the whole argument regarding timing is irrelevant as the thing is simply symbolic no matter when it's done, in which case now is as good a time as any other.

Posted
7 minutes ago, bovril said:

So wonderful now in England every time a crime is committed we need to have endless internet posts on the perpetrator's ethnicity by people trying to get one over on other people with different politics to them. Great development. 

It's almost as if we're only human and profiling based on the divides we've artificially produced above all other factors is incredibly counterproductive and actually helps no one beyond the bigots.

  • Like 1
Posted
5 hours ago, ian__marshall said:

There's a very simple answer to that the next time they try a stunt like this. Give them the exact same treatment Russia would take if a Nato fighter jet entered Russian airspace. 

 

Either that or respond in kind by sending jets into Russian airspace and see what happens. 

And then what? 
 

Russia will always be one step ahead of us in terms of escalation because they have tactical and strategic nukes, and only USA can match that, and I don’t think Trump is gonna risk it all for Estonia. 

Posted
5 hours ago, ian__marshall said:

There's a very simple answer to that the next time they try a stunt like this. Give them the exact same treatment Russia would take if a Nato fighter jet entered Russian airspace. 

 

Either that or respond in kind by sending jets into Russian airspace and see what happens. 

You've sort of said the same thing twice here. Or have I missed something?

Posted
3 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

We have plenty of white rapists so we shouldn't deport foreign rapists, is that the logic? 

You've missed the point of my cynicism and sarcasm with my post by the way... 

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