So really how much are we worth? - Does Charlie Meffin know?

[Chelmofox]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Yes 100%, he won't know the real important info but there'll be a sales deck valuation range that he's likely to get a steer on. 

 

I think we will go for way more than he says but the threat of administration can't be that car down the line as the numbers don't compute past this season.

My concern is there doesn't feel like there is much for the buyer to work with and my hunch is that KP will want a cash deal and to get out, and if buyers know that they are never going to meet high valuations.  We are loaned up to the bollocks with future tv money used as equity, so we know under PSR etc someone cant come in and just flash the cash.  If the buyer wants to do an earn out style tiered deal (i.e value us at the £140m based on getting back to the PL in x years) then the current management team will have to be involved to try and meet that, which none of us really want. Anyone suggesting a valuation be based on future earnings really needs to understand that the buyer de-risks that approach as much as possible and puts all the pressure on the seller.  I don't really see how any deal would make sense as things stand. Of course, go straight back up, and have our academy a fundamental part of that and look strong in the Championship, the potential upside looks very different.

 

But football is weird. We know owners use them as vanity projects or sports washing exercises. Maybe a buyer sees huge commercial opportunities not being exploited. Who knows, but my hunch is that nothing major will happen unless we look head and shoulders above everyone else in L1 by a significant margin. Start the season even 'average', and i think your prediction looks sound.

 

 

[Tuna]

FFS can someone edit the title. Charlie Meffin.

Edited 5 August by Tuna

[coolhandfox]

Charlie feel like @Ric Flair new Tete......

[Jon the Hat]

8 hours ago, Chelmofox said:

Valuations are largely based on how a buyer and seller wishes to structure a deal. Those NDAd won’t be discussing anything with Methven, so his ideas will be based on his knowledge and heresay. He’s probably bang on, but might be well out. 
 

I’ve been involved in several buyouts of technology companies and each was structured differently. The thing to remember is the buyer holds all the cards in a situation like LCFC . Buyers can structure deals based on revenue or profitability over several years, knowing full well targets cannot be met. Or they can buy outright in cash and try and leverage the opportunity immediately if they think there is one. A smart buyer will dangle a carrot, but aim to pay as little as possible. 

You make a good point, there could well be a upfront payment and an earnout based on getting back to the prem within 5 years or something.

[Ric Flair]

5 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

Charlie feel like @Ric Flair new Tete......

Our first Etonian 

[funkyrobot]

Interesting how if seems that the majority on here seem to trust the knowledge of Methven over MacAnthony. Both were in the same football ownership business and only one of them still is. One says it’s only worth £30m, one says it’s worth more than £140m. 
 

It would be worth checking Sunderland fans impression of Charlie to give a bit of balance.

[Ric Flair]

4 minutes ago, funkyrobot said:

Interesting how if seems that the majority on here seem to trust the knowledge of Methven over MacAnthony. Both were in the same football ownership business and only one of them still is. One says it’s only worth £30m, one says it’s worth more than £140m. 
 

It would be worth checking Sunderland fans impression of Charlie to give a bit of balance.

Methven is definitely of the opinion football clubs need to be ran drastically well financially. His involvement at Sunderland and Charlton speaks volumes in that regard but it's unpopular. Both clubs have gone on to grow since though from a more stable financial footing. 

 

I suspect we are an outlier anyway. We are not a normal League One club but equally our debts and circumstances put us on a prescipice that likely negate what we should be worth. I think somewhere around £100m would tempt someone.

[dobbylcfc]

Who ever takes us on have got one hell of a job on there hands. The club has gotten worse on and off the pitch for the last 3 seasons or so. As others said even if new owners come in they can’t flash the cash because of top’s/KP’s incompetence. 140 million seems like a stupidly high price for us. Nobody gets into football to make money it’s well known that football clubs are money pits. King Power didn’t buy us for that price all those years ago they’ll be lucky to flog us for nearly what the brought us for off mandaric think it was £30 mill.

[Finn Claw II]

No idea as to the price but we should be very attractive.

 

modern stadium with large committed fan base  - limited development costs 

 

modern training facilities - same as above 

 

Underachieving relative to where we would normally be - cheap

 

The majority of the high earners have been moved on.- becoming much more sustainable 

 

Good history in terms of wider reach.

 

I suspect KP want all the debt / equity injected into the club repaid so it would be interesting to know what that total is

 

 

 

 

[lcfc_forever]

Anyone got access to this full article by Swiss Ramble about the club’s finances? 
The data is a year out and much has changed but still looks interesting. 

https://swissramble.substack.com/p/leicester-city-finances-202425

[hackneyfox]

13 minutes ago, Finn Claw II said:

No idea as to the price but we should be very attractive.

 

modern stadium with large committed fan base  - limited development costs 

 

modern training facilities - same as above 

 

Underachieving relative to where we would normally be - cheap

 

The majority of the high earners have been moved on.- becoming much more sustainable 

 

Good history in terms of wider reach.

 

I suspect KP want all the debt / equity injected into the club repaid so it would be interesting to know what that total is

 

 

 

 

I thought Vichai/Top had said that they would never claim back the debt write-offs?

[Finn Claw II]

7 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

I thought Vichai/Top had said that they would never claim back the debt write-offs?

They won’t say that is what it is directly but I suspect it’ll form part of what they want in terms of a sale price

[moore_94]

Maybe Charlie Methven can buy us and we can have a rave before each match?

 

 

[ian__marshall]

I have no idea how you'd put a value on our club, we're quite unique in many ways. 

 

My thoughts are that I think we're somewhere in between both Methven and MacAnthony's valuations. 

 

The debts and lack of future cash flow of course make us less attractive to a potential buyer, unless they have deep pockets and are in it for the long haul. 

 

That said, I don't think comparing us to Sunderland as an example is entirely accurate either, as inflation will mean general club valuations have increased, whilst regional variances would value the land we own at a far higher price than the same footprint located in Sunderland (much like you'd expect to pay a premium for a London club). Additionally, I'd argue that with the right people in place to maximise the commercial value of the brand, we have the potential to leverage our story globally and generate some of the highest revenues outside of the top 6/7 (assuming we're in the PL and have exposure to an international audience). 

 

Whilst I acknowledge that Methven has some valid points, certainly concerning the here and now, I also agree with MacAnthony that club could and should be able to bounce back quickly, and if it were, the price right now (even including the debt) would look like chump change if an owner can get us back competing in the PL. 

 

I know we see Seagrave as a millstone around the neck and think what's to stop a lesser club being bought and building a similar facility, but on the plus side it is there ready built, a tangible asset that can be utilised from day one. It's one thing to have aspirations for a facility like that we have, but it's an entirely different matter to turn that into reality. 

 

As others have mentioned, I think other than the story in the FT, I doubt we'll hear much until a deal is all but concluded. Hopefully, that is sooner rather than later. 

 

Edited 6 August by ian__marshall

[Ric Flair]

12 minutes ago, moore_94 said:

Maybe Charlie Methven can buy us and we can have a rave before each match?

 

 

Reminiscing about the glory days when we played Darude Sandstorm before games, that's why me and Methven are kindred spirits 😂

[Parker Pen]

53 minutes ago, moore_94 said:

Maybe Charlie Methven can buy us and we can have a rave before each match?

 

 

I think he is definitely onto something with this! Since 2022/23 we have had  ‘when you’re smiling’  blasting out before kick off, that like she says in the video clip ‘resonates’ with a certain part of the crowd. Three relegations later!  It’s  not for me and is too slow and sucks the life from any atmosphere that had begun to be generated.

[1884HF]

4 minutes ago, Parker Pen said:

I think he is definitely onto something with this! Since 2022/23 we have had  ‘when you’re smiling’  blasting out before kick off, that like she says in the video clip ‘resonates’ with a certain part of the crowd. Three relegations later!  It’s  not for me and is too slow and sucks the life from any atmosphere that had begun to be generated.

I always felt I was a part of the minority who never took to 'when your smiling' its boring, it sucks the energy from the stadium, its downbeat instead of getting me fully up for a game as I should be, not being funny but most of the time I think im hearing speakers more than I am people actually singing it

[HankMarvin]

15 hours ago, CloudFox said:

Wrexham isn't a good comparison. Regardless of history and "size", they have created a huge, global brand, particularly visible in the States. They have a TV show and huge commercial value, as evidenced by the type of sponsorship deals they've managed to make.

 

Wrexham are a completely different beast. We'd have to look at a Sheffield Wednesday or the like for a similar valuation nowadays anyway, I think.

It is if you take 50 percent of their value, anyway you’re right we are much more similar to a club that was in administration and failed to pay staff and players, not been in the Premier league for 26 years and spent much of that time at the bottom half of the championship or league one.

Let’s just quietly ignore our 9 straight years in the top flight, FA cup win, League win, champions league season and one of the best training grounds.
As a club we have the 13th longest duration in the top flight since its inception as the Premier league.

£20m it is 

[Chelmofox]

15 hours ago, CloudFox said:

Wrexham isn't a good comparison. Regardless of history and "size", they have created a huge, global brand, particularly visible in the States. They have a TV show and huge commercial value, as evidenced by the type of sponsorship deals they've managed to make.

 

Wrexham are a completely different beast. We'd have to look at a Sheffield Wednesday or the like for a similar valuation nowadays anyway, I think.

Noone in the US gives a f*ck about who Wrexham are! But lots of people ive spoken to over there know the Leicester story. That made up valuation for Wrexham smells like nonsense to me.

[Manley Farrington-Brown]

11 minutes ago, 1884HF said:

I always felt I was a part of the minority who never took to 'when your smiling' its boring, it sucks the energy from the stadium, its downbeat instead of getting me fully up for a game as I should be, not being funny but most of the time I think im hearing speakers more than I am people actually singing it

It's awful. It's a dirge. They must have been going for a You'll Never Walk Alone type of thing but it's just not as good a song. And this version of it is particularly crap. There's a reason we used to sing it about three times the speed and add in the jazz hands to make it more interesting.

(the worst thing about the rubbish version they play - even worse than how slow and how bad it is - is that it's dealt the final blow to the already almost extinct way we used to sing it, which was our best and most distinctive song)

[jammie82uk]

5 hours ago, dobbylcfc said:

140 million seems like a stupidly high price for us.

Depends on what is included, if everything is included, the club, the stadium, all the land around the stadium that king power have brought (all land from the stadium to Aylestone Road) , the hybrid planning permission, 2 training grounds then £140 million starts looking like a bargain 

[ClaphamFox]

2 hours ago, 1884HF said:

I always felt I was a part of the minority who never took to 'when your smiling' its boring, it sucks the energy from the stadium, its downbeat instead of getting me fully up for a game as I should be, not being funny but most of the time I think im hearing speakers more than I am people actually singing it

It's difficult to think of a less inspiring football anthem than When You're Smiling. It's almost as bad as having God Save the King as the national anthem. Both horrendous.

[1884HF]

5 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

It's difficult to think of a less inspiring football anthem than When You're Smiling. It's almost as bad as having God Save the King as the national anthem. Both horrendous.

I don't sing when your smiling but when it comes on I always look around just to observe how many sing it out of curiosity and from my perspective in G1 standing I can see about 60% of the crowd singing which isn't amazing for what's supposed to be "a great anthem" bring back hey Jude ffs and can we get some decent music on after we score because that'll help the atmosphere 

[LVFox]

3 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Reminiscing about the glory days when we played Darude Sandstorm before games, that's why me and Methven are kindred spirits 😂

Babbyyyy I’m ready to gooooooooo

[Spudulike]