davieG Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 Do you need 40 points to guarantee Premier League survival? We look at the stats... There are currently seven teams with 27 points or fewer and each have 11 games to play: Sunderland (19 pts), Hull City (21 pts), Middlesbrough (22 pts), Crystal Palace (25 pts), Swansea, Leicester and Bournemouth (all on 27 pts). Forty points is often cited as a target to avoid the drop - but is this the true number to guarantee safety? In fact, the average number of points to secure Premier League status since 1995/96 is 37, a Sky Sports study has found. However, if teams continue their average points-per-game ratios this term, Sunderland, Hull and Middlesbrough would face the drop, with Boro finishing in 18th place on just 31 points - meaning a mere 32 points could secure safety. That threshold bodes well for Palace, Swansea and Leicester, who each have points-per-game ratios and rejuvenated form that favour survival. BEST AND WORST Last season proved to be a tougher-than-average campaign for teams at the bottom, which eventually saw Aston Villa, Norwich and Newcastle relegated - despite the Magpies collecting 37 points that would typically secure survival. Over the last 21 years, only three teams have finished in the bottom three with 40 points or more: Sunderland (1996/97, 40 pts), Bolton (1997/98, 40 pts) and West Ham (2002/03, 42 pts). West Ham were relegated in 2003 despite finishing the season on 42 points West Ham's 42-point haul in 2002/03 remains the highest of any Premier League team to be relegated during a 38-game season, despite having Michael Carrick, Paulo Di Canio, Joe Cole, Glen Johnson and Jermain Defoe among the ranks. However, the toughest season for survival was in 2010/11 when West Ham, Blackpool and Birmingham accumulated a combined 111 points and all finished in the bottom three, while Wolves, Wigan and Blackburn avoided the drop narrowly. In contrast, Derby County recorded the fewest points with 11 in 2007/08, while Sunderland only managed 15 in 2005/06 and Aston Villa's 17 points last term was the third worst tally in 21 years.
Guest MattP Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 With in-depth studies like that those researchers at Sky Sports are earning their money. You would this year is going to be one of the lowest in years given Middlesborough are currently 18th with 22 points from 27 games, 35 points should be enough.
Lestoh Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 basically sunderland are finally going down and we're all happy about it
AmarteyAndChill Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 No but I don't wanna just stay up, 12th should be the aim
BenTheFox Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 I think 38 will be enough this season, possibly less. Want to get to 40 points to be sure though.
Thracian Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 I doubt it. The best of the bottom three have 22 points from 27 games which is considerably below the point a game average I believe you need to be pretty sure of staying up most years. Yes, two wins from two games such as we've taken would make a big difference to any of them but they've not shown much promise of achieving such a thing. Also the pressure of such games doesn't encourage expansive play. If a bottom club gets behind, they may attack for an equaliser then revert to caution again but if they go ahead they'll defend it rather than push for a second, something I don't always understand but seems to be human nature despite the considerable risks of the increasing pressure resulting in an equaliser. It was to our great credit that when we scored two goals we looked to score again and our improving goal difference might even be worth an extra point at the finish and if we need it. As already mentioned, it's worth us trying to keep climbing up the table anyway, and if we can squeeze our way through in the Champions League, we could end up with a team full of energised, confident players all striving to do well in the league and make sure they stay in the team chasing still more history. Put it this way. We're not clear of potential relegation by a long way but I'd sooner be in our position than any one of the teams below us - providing we stay 100% focused on whoever is our next opponent. For me 38, perhaps 39 points should equal survival even if someone breaks from the bottom three which looks increasingly doubtful because none seem particularly potent, attack-wise. Cynic that I am, I also see one more positive factor. Bournemouth. Both Leicester and the seasiders are five points clear of the bottom three and Leicester play Bournemouth in the last game of the season. What, I wonder would be the most likely result if both teams needed a point to stay up! Would they even be morally obliged, the one to try to beat the other? Or would they both be entirely justified in choosing to defend their half and do next to nothing else?.
weller54 Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 26 minutes ago, BenTheFox said: I think 38 will be enough this season, possibly less. Want to get to 40 points to be sure though. Thanks Claudio!
TJB-fox Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 43 minutes ago, AmarteyAndChill said: No but I don't wanna just stay up, 12th should be the aim I'd take staying up and getting through to knockout stages of CL tbh, even if we go out to sevilla. Could've done far better this year domestically (league and cups) but this was always going to be a tough season.
foxy boxing Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 40 points is usually the beromiter for teams to aim at to be sure of safety although over the last few seasons the points to be safe has got lower
StanSP Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 7 minutes ago, foxy boxing said: 40 points is usually the beromiter for teams to aim at to be sure of safety although over the last few seasons the points to be safe has got lower what's this
BenTheFox Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 20 minutes ago, weller54 said: Thanks Claudio! That mean the media will blame everyone except me if things start to go badly?
FoxinNotts Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 Its funny, but I think we'll get exactly 40 points! I foresee our only away point being at West Ham. Then home wins against Stoke, Sunderland, Watford and Bournemouth. Taking us into the last game of the season on 37 points, then getting that win.
WiFoxes Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 I think 37 is probably going to be enough this year. But as others have said, why shoot for that? 40 points would be nice. Finishing somewhere in 11th-14th would be better. Top half is pretty much a dream.
AmarteyAndChill Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 21 minutes ago, FoxinNotts said: Its funny, but I think we'll get exactly 40 points! I foresee our only away point being at West Ham. Then home wins against Stoke, Sunderland, Watford and Bournemouth. Taking us into the last game of the season on 37 points, then getting that win. West brom? They've already got 40 points?
Ted Maul Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 It's comforting to know that 3 wins and a couple of draws will see us survive comfortably. I still want us to rack the points up ASAP though- get a draw at West Ham and win the home games against Sunderland and Stoke. Then we can concentrate on our CL quarter final.
Mythyaar Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 I think 36 points will be enough to survive this season, maybe even 35. Looking at their remaining fixtures, I can't see Hull getiing more than 15 points taking them up to 36 but vastly inferior goal difference to us. Boro have a horrendous run in and will do well to bag 10 points. Sunderland look doomed.
yorkie1999 Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 29 minutes ago, Mythyaar said: I think 36 points will be enough to survive this season, maybe even 35. Looking at their remaining fixtures, I can't see Hull getiing more than 15 points taking them up to 36 but vastly inferior goal difference to us. Boro have a horrendous run in and will do well to bag 10 points. Sunderland look doomed. All depends which teams are on the beach in the last 8 games
Gazza M Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 We should be aiming for 40 points. That was the pre-season goal from Claudio. In all honesty from 11 games, 13 points should be comfortable in current form. In fact in current form 42-44 points is within reach. If we suddenly flop again, we must get 38, a point a game here on in. 3 wins and 2 draws.
ithuriel Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 Basically 4 wins from our remaining 11 games will be enough.
yorkie1999 Posted 8 March 2017 Posted 8 March 2017 2 minutes ago, ithuriel said: Basically 4 wins from our remaining 11 games will be enough. Or 10 wins from our next 17 games will be more than enough!
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