General Election, June 8th

[Dr The Singh]

13 minutes ago, Paddy. said:

I wouldn't trust Diane Abbott to run the bakery in my local Tescos. Comes across as an absolute ****tard.

I have no ideA why Corbyn would even think of her in the same pkstcode, let alone rim jobbing her

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

I have no ideA why Corbyn would even think of her in the same pkstcode, let alone rim jobbing her

I honestly think him receiving a golden shower from Diane Abbott is worse than any of his terrorist links.

[Dr The Singh]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

I honestly think him receiving a golden shower from Diane Abbott is worse than any of his terrorist links.

Rincy would love that

[Jimothy]

Larry  

 

 

[Benji]

 very good

[LiberalFox]

Abbott is only there because moderate Labour wouldn't support Corbyn. They have effectively won this election for the Tories (although the Tories wouldn't have called an election if they didn't think they would win big).

[EnderbyFox]

 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, EnderbyFox said:

 

Mental. How can they all be so far apart still? 

[Buce]

9 hours ago, MattP said:

I honestly think him receiving a golden shower from Diane Abbott is worse than any of his terrorist links.

 

You cvnt!

 

I will never be able to unread that.

[Realist Guy In The Room]

11 hours ago, MattP said:

I know the SNP are becoming less popular but this is staggering.

 

They weren't getting a beating like this even in pro-union cities like Edinburgh last time.

Sturgeon has lost the plot.  She was in a position of absolute power and she's thrown it away.

[Guest Kopfkino]

The Survation poll shows a high turnout for the young vote and 15% of the Labour vote is coming from those that didn't vote in 2015.

 

Got a rehearsal for the ITV coverage today. Spoke to a guy from YouGov who really isn't confident on their polling, thinks the constituency stuff was a stupid thing to do because they base it solely on demographics. 

[Foxxed]

Regarding NI tax, the Tories removal of the small employers NI exception annoyed me.

 

In the same way you have 10k income tax free, you didn't pay any employers NI until for 2k if you employed fewer than 10 people.

 

Seems to remove an incentive for small business to employ. I wouldn't mind if that money were being transferred to the employee to spur on spending, but no.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

 

If the wide divergence in the polls is mainly due to different expectations about youth turnout, the voting percentages could be close to last time: perhaps a 7% Tory lead.

 

As I understand it, the pollsters recording 10%-12% leads adjust their figures to assume a very low youth turnout, similar to last time. Whereas YouGov (& Survation?) use different methods that don't make that assumption.

 

The differential turnout by age in 2015 (42% for 18-25 v. 78% for age 65+) was extreme, even by normal standards. There is clearly a lot of youth support for Corbyn - and some Tory-voting pensioners might stay at home due to the Tory social care policy. So the differential turnout might not be so great this time....though it would still exist, I'm sure. It always does.

 

However, if Labour is accumulating extra youth votes, what sort of constituencies is it accumulating them in? My suspicion is that it will be in big cities, university towns and parts of the South. Most of the big city/university town constituencies are already Labour seats. Meanwhile, most other seats in the South are out of Labour's reach. So they could well be piling up extra votes in precisely the seats where they are least use!

 

If that is combined with a significant swing to the Tories in the North and Midlands (outside major cities / university towns), then that's where a lot of the marginals are. So Labour could gain 5% in parts of the country that yield very few extra seats, but could lose 5% in precisely those seats where they have most to lose.

 

Unless I see election day footage of young voters queuing down the street in Dudley, Bury and Middlesbrough, I'll be assuming that a 7% Tory lead this time will bring them a much bigger majority (60-80?). Labour would probably need to be within 3-4% in the exit poll not to lose seats overall - and even closer to aspire to a hung parliament. 

[Nick]

36 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

If the wide divergence in the polls is mainly due to different expectations about youth turnout, the voting percentages could be close to last time: perhaps a 7% Tory lead.

 

As I understand it, the pollsters recording 10%-12% leads adjust their figures to assume a very low youth turnout, similar to last time. Whereas YouGov (& Survation?) use different methods that don't make that assumption.

 

The differential turnout by age in 2015 (42% for 18-25 v. 78% for age 65+) was extreme, even by normal standards. There is clearly a lot of youth support for Corbyn - and some Tory-voting pensioners might stay at home due to the Tory social care policy. So the differential turnout might not be so great this time....though it would still exist, I'm sure. It always does.

 

However, if Labour is accumulating extra youth votes, what sort of constituencies is it accumulating them in? My suspicion is that it will be in big cities, university towns and parts of the South. Most of the big city/university town constituencies are already Labour seats. Meanwhile, most other seats in the South are out of Labour's reach. So they could well be piling up extra votes in precisely the seats where they are least use!

 

If that is combined with a significant swing to the Tories in the North and Midlands (outside major cities / university towns), then that's where a lot of the marginals are. So Labour could gain 5% in parts of the country that yield very few extra seats, but could lose 5% in precisely those seats where they have most to lose.

 

Unless I see election day footage of young voters queuing down the street in Dudley, Bury and Middlesbrough, I'll be assuming that a 7% Tory lead this time will bring them a much bigger majority (60-80?). Labour would probably need to be within 3-4% in the exit poll not to lose seats overall - and even closer to aspire to a hung parliament. 

Well there is a remote possibility that the youth that didn't vote in the referendum and feel that Brexit didn't or doesn't represent their ideals have registered to vote in their thousands..... but millions which it surely take a few of to upset this election result?

 

Until voting is secure and fully on-line (which doesn't look likely in this age of cyber crime) I doubt the 18-22 year old demographic will matter much - especially as even those registered, many are at University and away from home and others don't use the post or make themselves available on polling day.

[Beliall]

WTF

 

 

[Guest]

Looking at this election without the policies and I'm coming to the conclusion that we've hardly got any politicians that are fit to govern. 

 

Abbott is a complete embarrasment for labour but then some of the stuff with various tories refusing to answer basic questions is just as bad. Politics really does seem to be lacking heavy weights and intellectual giants on all sides at the moment. 

[Nick]

4 minutes ago, Beliall said:

WTF

 

 

Thats right of the Alan Partridge jingle bank  

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Beliall said:

WTF

 

 

He's from Blaby originally. 

[Nick]

2 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Looking at this election without the policies and I'm coming to the conclusion that we've hardly got any politicians that are fit to govern. 

 

Abbott is a complete embarrasment for labour but then some of the stuff with various tories refusing to answer basic questions is just as bad. Politics really does seem to be lacking heavy weights and intellectual giants on all sides at the moment. 

Yeah, I've said this from the start.

 

There's no real credible options only more generic austerity, misery and big business profiteering or rolling the dice into the matrix.

 

Basically take the red pill or the blue pill: One's a rollercoaster action disaster movie, the other will have you as an extra on the walking dead.

[Nick]

2 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

He's from Blaby originally. 

Yeah, here to represent the kids and global tailoring.

[Captain...]

Surprised this hasn't  been posted yet:

 

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/im-pleased-we-have-foodbanks-tory-candidate-faces-backlash-after-comments-filmed-at-hustings-a3557361.html

 

Pretty bad from the Tory candidate and conforms to the elitist privilege behaviour that people expect of the "Nasty Party". I don't think her comments on food banks were that bad if a little misjudged/poorly worded. Then to dismiss the complaints and tell everyone to ignore her own constituents, that was pretty poor.

[Mike Oxlong]

14 hours ago, MattP said:

I honestly think him receiving a golden shower from Diane Abbott is worse than any of his terrorist links.

She's  so fvckin incompetent that she'd miss even if she were squatting over him.

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

If the wide divergence in the polls is mainly due to different expectations about youth turnout, the voting percentages could be close to last time: perhaps a 7% Tory lead.

 

As I understand it, the pollsters recording 10%-12% leads adjust their figures to assume a very low youth turnout, similar to last time. Whereas YouGov (& Survation?) use different methods that don't make that assumption.

 

The differential turnout by age in 2015 (42% for 18-25 v. 78% for age 65+) was extreme, even by normal standards. There is clearly a lot of youth support for Corbyn - and some Tory-voting pensioners might stay at home due to the Tory social care policy. So the differential turnout might not be so great this time....though it would still exist, I'm sure. It always does.

 

However, if Labour is accumulating extra youth votes, what sort of constituencies is it accumulating them in? My suspicion is that it will be in big cities, university towns and parts of the South. Most of the big city/university town constituencies are already Labour seats. Meanwhile, most other seats in the South are out of Labour's reach. So they could well be piling up extra votes in precisely the seats where they are least use!

 

If that is combined with a significant swing to the Tories in the North and Midlands (outside major cities / university towns), then that's where a lot of the marginals are. So Labour could gain 5% in parts of the country that yield very few extra seats, but could lose 5% in precisely those seats where they have most to lose.

 

Unless I see election day footage of young voters queuing down the street in Dudley, Bury and Middlesbrough, I'll be assuming that a 7% Tory lead this time will bring them a much bigger majority (60-80?). Labour would probably need to be within 3-4% in the exit poll not to lose seats overall - and even closer to aspire to a hung parliament. 

Just on that, students have a choice which address they register at (parental or term time) and most will be back from university with a June election, so I'd not be so quick to write it as extending leads in safe seats.

[Guest]

15 hours ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Is she on drugs? Seriously.

Dermot wasn't trying to belittle her or catch her out and gave her fair chance a number of times.

In all my years I can't recall a politician who seems so uninformed and dense.

I'm staggered by her incompetence and embarrassed for her. It's really uncomfortable to watch her.

Jesus, she hasn't read the document. She is special needs

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

Just on that, students have a choice which address they register at (parental or term time) and most will be back from university with a June election, so I'd not be so quick to write it as extending leads in safe seats.

 

That would be relevant for those who registered after the election was called or who were already registered back home, but what about those who were already registered where they were studying?

Postal voters or abstainers, unless they live nearby? Of course, a lot more students go to their local unis these days, don't they?

 

Even if a lot of them do vote from their parental addresses, what sort of areas do students come from?

Obviously, they come from all over and I'm stereotyping a bit, but I reckon a lot more students come from, say, Nottingham, York or Tunbridge Wells, than from Bury, Middlesbrough or Thurrock....

 

I might be wrong - and will be pleased if I am - but I think that a lot of Labour's support might be in the wrong places to be beneficial under First Past the Post, and more so than in 2015.