General Election, June 8th

[theessexfox]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

We'd be basically telling them to stop dicking around with the little pointless parties and decide which main party they want. Then we would still probably get a dead heat.

Fair enough if there was any sort of provision for that in the UK constitution, yeah that may settle things. Obviously not an option at the moment though. 

[Guest MattP]

55 minutes ago, Captain... said:

That's not what Corbyn said in the debates or the Shadow Brexit Secretary, they said they wanted to remain in the single market and believed it was possible. They also implied they would end free movement, but Corbyn was very clear not to say that he would accept free movement for access to the single market.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/24/labour-vows-to-rip-up-and-rethink-brexit-white-paper

 

I'm not sure how the spectator got this headline from that exchange: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/full-transcript-john-mcdonnell-says-labour-supports-leaving-single-market/#

 

The way I interpreted it was that they would be happy with a Norway style deal, but made sure they didn't actually say it. They did say the wanted tariff free access to the single market, but accepted Brexit. The only way that is possible is to make a Norway style deal, or get the EU to compromise on their key beliefs.

 

That may just be me looking for things that aren't there because I see that as being the logical option at the moment. We have a mess in the commons, we have a government that called an election to give them a stronger mandate on Brexit and have massively weakened their position. At they moment they are still struggling to make a deal on the running of this country I have zero faith in them negotiating any sort of beneficial Brexit. Taking a Norway type deal would be a half way house honouring the results of Brexit whilst giving us access to the single market and the migrant labour force we need for growth. We would honour any existing financial commitments so there would be no divorce settlements, then after 5 years or 10 or 7, after some years we have another referendum to decide whether we stay with the Norway deal, rejoin the EU or sever all ties.

The manifesto (and to be fair McDonnell and Gardner since) is very clear about what it says, it says freedom of movement will end, no ifs no buts, so that is a commitment to leave the single market unless there is a massive change of heart by the European Union when the negotiations start.

 

I did feel at times Labour were being deliberate in being a bit hazey over the issue to avoid losing the youth vote, but the fact they were allowed to do that is the fault of the Conservatives and the blame lies with them, it is exactly why Theresa May should have been on the TV debates, she could have been pointing out that like a lot of things, Corbyn was again promising something that was impossible, but she didn't.

 

45 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

43%? You sure?  

Busted! 42.3 - I apologise.

 

23 minutes ago, Captain... said:

I've just seen David Davis on the news saying he is open to ideas over Brexit, if anyone has them let him know.

 

This really is farcical, maybe I should get in touch...

As I said earlier, from the Daily Politics Labour now appear to be more in touch with a hard Brexit than the Tories and for the first time in my life, actually have a chance of getting my vote if that's the option on the table in an election before the negotiation is concluded.

[Captain...]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

The manifesto (and to be fair McDonnell and Gardner since) is very clear about what it says, it says freedom of movement will end, no ifs no buts, so that is a commitment to leave the single market unless there is a massive change of heart by the European Union when the negotiations start.

 

I did feel at times Labour were being deliberate in being a bit hazey over the issue to avoid losing the youth vote, but the fact they were allowed to do that is the fault of the Conservatives and the blame lies with them, it is exactly why Theresa May should have been on the TV debates, she could have been pointing out that like a lot of things, Corbyn was again promising something that was impossible, but she didn't.

 

Busted! 42.3 - I apologise.

 

As I said earlier, from the Daily Politics Labour now appeared to be more in touch with a hard Brexit than the Tories.

They certainly weren't clear on it, whether that was because they were planning a soft brexit but didn't want to be seen as offering it, or had a hard brexit in mind, but likewise didn't want to be seen to be promising one thing or the other. My interpretation was down to how they said reducing immigration and stopping freedom of movement was not a priority, the priority was tariff free access to the single market. To me that is hinting a soft brexit, but then I am a remainer, as a brexiteer it is interesting that you interpreted what they said as promising a hard brexit. Maybe we are both guilty of hearing what we want to hear.

 

Would you be happy with a quickly negotiated soft brexit, Norway style join the efta, open borders, access to single market etc if there was a chance to renegotiate at some point in the future with hard brexit a future possibility?

[Izzy]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Owen Jones. Quite a prominent lefty political commentator (and he's not as young as he looks).

 

I can understand you finding him annoying. Try to ignore him and concentrate on the content (though I've not got the time to watch this half-hour video).

He used to be a bit immature in his analysis, but has matured quite well - writes some good stuff sometimes, annoying or not.

Cheers Alf, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt then seeing as you think he's ok 

 

I just thought he came across as very confrontational on Sky yesterday and was clearly happy at how he'd riled a load of Tory MPs recently.

 

He seemed to have a huge ego which turned me off him instantly but I'll ignore him and focus on the content as you say 

 

P.S. Spent all afternoon looking for my car keys that I've lost. I blame Theresa May for this obviously 

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Captain... said:

They certainly weren't clear on it, whether that was because they were planning a soft brexit but didn't want to be seen as offering it, or had a hard brexit in mind, but likewise didn't want to be seen to be promising one thing or the other. My interpretation was down to how they said reducing immigration and stopping freedom of movement was not a priority, the priority was tariff free access to the single market. To me that is hinting a soft brexit, but then I am a remainer, as a brexiteer it is interesting that you interpreted what they said as promising a hard brexit. Maybe we are both guilty of hearing what we want to hear.

 

Would you be happy with a quickly negotiated soft brexit, Norway style join the efta, open borders, access to single market etc if there was a chance to renegotiate at some point in the future with hard brexit a future possibility?

The Manifesto said Freedom of Movement has to end, unless everyone in the EU is lying that means we are leaving the single market and the shadow chancellor confirmed that yesterday. To the question, absolutely not, that's just effectively delaying the decision and I have no doubt it never would be negotiated again.

 

It sounds like something the EU would try though, have a read of "Adults in the Room" by Yanis Varoufakis, I've only read the extracts but it tells you exactly what they are like in a negotiation.

[LiberalFox]

As a remainer I don't see the point in a "Norway" Brexit. It's basically remaining but not having any MEPs. Still having freedom of movement, still paying (Norway pay more per head than we do). If Norway is acceptable to the public then we should remain. 

 

We have 3 viable choices:

 

Remain - Requires EU allowing us to withdraw article 50 (Best Economic option, means overturning referendum)

Leave but stay in the customs union - Requires the most negotiation (Most reasonable economic leave option, requires loads of negotiations that could require an extension to complete)

Leave without any bilateral agreement in place - Requires little negotiation (Worst economic option, probably the easiest political position if the public will support it)

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, MattP said:

The Manifesto said Freedom of Movement has to end, unless everyone in the EU is lying that means we are leaving the single market and the shadow chancellor confirmed that yesterday. To the question, absolutely not, that's just effectively delaying the decision and I have no doubt it never would be negotiated again.

 

It sounds like something the EU would try though, have a read of "Adults in the Room" by Yanis Varoufakis, I've only read the extracts but it tells you exactly what they are like in a negotiation.

May said no deal is better than a bad deal. 

Corbyn said there would definately be a deal done. 

I don't believe for one second may could or would have walked away. 

If they can't have tariff free access to the single market and change immigration rules there'll be a big decision to make. Anybody that puts immigration over the economy dooms their party to 30 years out of office. It would be national suicide. Let's hope the Europeans want to be accomodating.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, toddybad said:

May said no deal is better than a bad deal. 

Corbyn said there would definately be a deal done. 

I don't believe for one second may could or would have walked away. 

If they can't have tariff free access to the single market and change immigration rules there'll be a big decision to make. Anybody that puts immigration over the economy dooms their party to 30 years out of office. It would be national suicide. Let's hope the Europeans want to be accomodating.

I don't believe for one minute May would have walked away without a deal, it was all bluster, but to get a good deal you need them to think you'll walk away with nothing, that's goes from the EU to buying a piece of jewellery or a car, now I think no deal is likely as she's got to somehow please her Eurosceptic backbenchers, a Scottish Tory leader who wants to stay in the Single market and the DUP.

 

Corbyn's position was so asinine it was hard to even take it seriously, effectively telling people you'll take whatever they offer you, you can tell he's never done a negotiation in his life.

[Guest]

Just now, MattP said:

I don't believe for one minute May would have walked away without a deal, it was all bluster, but to get a good deal you need them to think you'll walk away with nothing, that's goes from the EU to buying a piece of jewellery or a car, now I think no deal is likely as she's got to somehow please her Eurosceptic backbenchers, a Scottish Tory leader who wants to stay in the Single market and the DUP.

 

Corbyn's position was so asinine it was hard to even take it seriously, effectively telling people you'll take whatever they offer you, you can tell he's never done a negotiation in his life.

None of our politicians have done negotiations of this type before. All our trade negotiations have been performed by the eu for decades. I have no idea whether it's a negotiation of the type you'd try down the used car dealership or not but i do suspect not pissing them off beforehand might have been wise. 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, toddybad said:

None of our politicians have done negotiations of this type before. All our trade negotiations have been performed by the eu for decades. I have no idea whether it's a negotiation of the type you'd try down the used car dealership or not but i do suspect not pissing them off beforehand might have been wise. 

But any person in the World should realise that if you are entering into a negotiation with anyone you don't jump in at the start and tell them that before you start you are desperate and are prepared to take anything, I can't believe anyone seriously has to have that explained.

 

As I said to Captain, have a read of some of things in "Adults in the Room" by Yanis Varoufakis, you aren't dealing with normal people here, they are brutal sadists who try to crush any opposition.

 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/d/Books/Adults-Room-Yanis-Varoufakis/184792445X

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

We'd be basically telling them to stop dicking around with the little pointless parties and decide which main party they want. Then we would still probably get a dead heat.

 

I'm not so sure of that; Labour has the momentum (no pun intended), at the moment.

[Captain...]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

The Manifesto said Freedom of Movement has to end, unless everyone in the EU is lying that means we are leaving the single market and the shadow chancellor confirmed that yesterday. To the question, absolutely not, that's just effectively delaying the decision and I have no doubt it never would be negotiated again.

 

It sounds like something the EU would try though, have a read of "Adults in the Room" by Yanis Varoufakis, I've only read the extracts but it tells you exactly what they are like in a negotiation.

He was on the channel 4 election special advocating a Norway style agreement partly because he knows how difficult it will be to get any sort of deal out of the EU. I would go for it right now to buy some time to get our own house in order. We are in no position to negotiate Brexit.

[The Guvnor]

I'm pretty sure there were a lot of protest votes against the Tories Adult Social Care proposals in Labours favour , they will now be history and this might be the wake up call the Tories needed. I believe if there was another election called  with a new Tory leader , the Social Care ammendments and with Labours Brexit plans never being able to pacify the Brexiteers , the UKIP voters would be back on board and it would be a comfortable Tory victory.

[Nick]

We'll leave with a deal and it will be the worst deal ever if this government happens. 

[SouthStandUpperTier]

I'm pretty sure there were a lot of protest votes against the Tories Adult Social Care proposals in Labours favour

And I know a few true blue Tories who stayed at home because of the social care debacle. They'll be back if the Tories can get their house in order. I'm really not convinced Labour are as close to power as they think they are.

 

 

 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

We'll leave with a deal and it will be the worst deal ever if this government happens. 

Well it was a bit stupid to choose to leave.

[Bobby Hundreds]

13 minutes ago, SouthStandUpperTier said:

And I know a few true blue Tories who stayed at home because of the social care debacle. They'll be back if the Tories can get their house in order. I'm really not convinced Labour are as close to power as they think they are.

 

 

 

Love anecdotal evidence me.

[LiberalFox]

'Facebook blasphemer' given death penalty in Pakistan.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40246754

 

And we give these about £400 Million a year in aid last time I checked.

 

 

[SouthStandUpperTier]

Love anecdotal evidence me.

Good for you, I aim to please.

[Great Boos Up]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

I'm not so sure of that; Labour has the momentum (no pun intended), at the moment.

As implied by @davieG poll (who asked  what we think but are unable to reply on FT) Post election Poll. No one will ever change their mind so at this point a perpetual dead heat is a certainty. like the brexit 49/51, the country is split.

[The Guvnor]

21 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Well it was a bit stupid to choose to leave.

You sort of end up going round in circles eventually, if you go back to the time when Cameron asked for the gentlest of concessions from the EU, he never even got them even with the threat of a referendum lurking in the wings, now if you are going to label anyone stupid surely it should be the EU's total arrogance and inflexibility, a few changes would probably been suffice to prevent a leave vote but oh no they couldn't even concede to those, the EU are to blame no one else.

[bovril]

3 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

You sort of end up going round in circles eventually, if you go back to the time when Cameron asked for the gentlest of concessions from the EU, he never even got them even with the threat of a referendum lurking in the wings, now if you are going to label anyone stupid surely it should be the EU's total arrogance and inflexibility, a few changes would probably been suffice to prevent a leave vote but oh no they couldn't even concede to those, the EU are to blame no one else.

Interesting you mention arrogance. I'm not an EU fanatic at all but to claim that it is the EU's fault we left is arrogance in the extreme.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

You sort of end up going round in circles eventually, if you go back to the time when Cameron asked for the gentlest of concessions from the EU, he never even got them even with the threat of a referendum lurking in the wings, now if you are going to label anyone stupid surely it should be the EU's total arrogance and inflexibility, a few changes would probably been suffice to prevent a leave vote but oh no they couldn't even concede to those, the EU are to blame no one else.

That's a strange argument. The eu protects the eu. Britain protects britain. Britain will be committing national suicide if it leaves badly and it will be entirely our own fault.

 

We voted out - well 52% of you did. We are leaving based on that democratic vote but it should be remembered that if only 3% of people voting in the referendum wanted to leave under what we now call 'soft' terms then a majority of the country are effectively soft brexiteers (as all remainers would fall under that cetegory now you'd imagine). There is no mandate for a hard brexit as that question has never been asked. I suspect if it was the soft option would win as people are just starting to see the tip of the iceberg in terms of the difficulties that are ahead.

[LiberalFox]

I don't know what Cameron was hoping to achieve, one can't just turn up and demand the whole EU structure is reformed because the current UK PM wants it. 

[The Guvnor]

7 minutes ago, bovril said:

Interesting you mention arrogance. I'm not an EU fanatic at all but to claim that it is the EU's fault we left is arrogance in the extreme.

Cameron at the time was quite open about the EU and continually stated that we would be better off within the EU however  it needed reforms in certain areas and was confident that would happen in future negotiations he then went to the EU asking as I said for minor concessions and couldn't even get them. Now how on earth could that have convinced the EU sceptics things would change, the referendum proved it did not.