FA cup quater final draw 7.45pm UK time

[HighPeakFox]

3 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Possibly worked this out wrong but the probably of one of the bigger teams getting the smaller 4 was 4/7 (0.571). So the possibility of all 4 getting a smaller team is 0.571 x 0.571 x 0.571 x 0.571, which is only 0.106, or 10.6%.

 

Dont think it was fixed tho, just very fortunate.

Don't be so reasonable.

[LCFCtotheprem]

1 hour ago, Nalis said:

Possibly worked this out wrong but the probably of one of the bigger teams getting the smaller 4 was 4/7 (0.571). So the possibility of all 4 getting a smaller team is 0.571 x 0.571 x 0.571 x 0.571, which is only 0.106, or 10.6%.

 

Dont think it was fixed tho, just very fortunate.

How about the QF of the Carabao cup. All big 4 teams avoided each other then also. Probability it happening in both cups is surely about 1.1%

[HighPeakFox]

2 minutes ago, LCFCtotheprem said:

How about the QF of the Carabao cup. All big 4 teams avoided each other then also. Probability it happening in both cups is surely about 1.1%

This still does not count as evidence, whatever the odds.

 

By the way, what was the probability of Leicester winning the PL in 15/16? I presume that was a fix too...

[LCFCtotheprem]

3 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

This still does not count as evidence, whatever the odds.

 

By the way, what was the probability of Leicester winning the PL in 15/16? I presume that was a fix too...

It doesn’t prove anything but the Carabao cup one was very suspicious since it wasn’t a live draw 

[whoareyaaa]

33 minutes ago, Gerbold said:

Interesting about the idea of "cold balls" and "hot balls" (interesting technology, too) but whoever picked them would be placing themselves in jeopardy for the rest of their lives as, potentially, the guys who assisted in fixing the Cup. Only money could persuade anyone to do such a risk-laden act. Who would pay the bribe and why? Would the FA do it of their own volition? Doubtful, without a reward coming their way - the venality of organisations in football is so apparent that there would have to be payment of some kind. That begs the question of who would pay.

 

The obvious answer is that the broadcasters and the the 'big' teams are most likely to gain - at this point in the competition - when the unlikely teams have all been eliminated. But the broadcasters might like the idea of showing a giant-killing match and any club needing revenue would welcome a fixture at Old Trafford or the Etihad. Much better, spectacle-wise, to show such a game from such a ground. The BBC seem to turn up for their broadcasts at the smaller grounds. I'm not sure how the broadcasts are divvied up - I don't have a package subscription and I'm more interested in the Premier games. Been disappointed too many times by City's early exits to 'minnow' sides to get worked up over the early stages.

 

But how big a payout would it ensure for clubs whose revenues are so great anyway. The Cup, in this conjectural situation, becomes a kind of tontine of the 'big' clubs - the last team remaining, that is, the winners, picking up the 'spoils'. No individual club could really profit (financially and prestige-wise) from any outlay - it would have to be a cartel of those with the most to gain. Does anybody believe that six rival clubs (the two Manchesters, Liverpool and the three London clubs) would conspire together to bias the outcome - when there's an odds-on chance they would beat any other team outside of their group [other than the form-teams of the rest of the Premier or the current Championship leading clubs]?

 

It seems unlikely.

 

 

The TV company?

[FoxFossil]

14 hours ago, harpendenfox said:

And Hazard tweaking a little something during extra time. Nothing serious, but a 2 week layoff

And Drinky's wig glue fails.

[Footballwipe]

 at people actually thinking the FA Cup draw is fixed. Good lord we're getting all conspiratorial in the modern age, aren't we?

[Steve_Walsh5]

17 minutes ago, Footballwipe said:

 at people actually thinking the FA Cup draw is fixed. Good lord we're getting all conspiratorial in the modern age, aren't we?

Yeah because football has never been involved in corruption or fixing. 

 

Fvck sake it was only a few months ago that one of our “best” referees admitted that he went into a crucial title deciding match with a game plan not to send anyone off.

[HighPeakFox]

42 minutes ago, Steve_Walsh5 said:

Yeah because football has never been involved in corruption or fixing. 

 

Fvck sake it was only a few months ago that one of our “best” referees admitted that he went into a crucial title deciding match with a game plan not to send anyone off.

Case closed then. Just keep an open mind on it.

[Donut]

12 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

7th draw in a row apparently (not including one where it was a mathematical impossibility).

 

It's far too convenient for me. The most predictable aspect of the draw as well.

 

It was as good a draw as we could've got if we were going to get a top side.

Dan come on, youre better than stooping to these levels

[Far Post Gerry]

You can hardly blame people for being suspicious. After the ridiculous carabao cup draws, proven high-level corruption and a perceived big club bias, i reckon you'd be way too trusting if you didn't even consider it.

 

That said, i don't think it was rigged. But it says a lot about the shit state football that so many people are so ready to assume it was.

[Filbert_Ross]

Why would Micheal Owen & Shay Given be up for fixing the draw?! ??‍♂️

Edited 18 February 2018 by Filbert_Ross

[oxtonfox]

On 2/17/2018 at 20:15, somebum said:

Dont agree there mate. Its certainly not impossible... maybe not very probable 

I think the chances of "big 4" being separated in the 4 ties are about 22% or in betting odds 11/2 . This is not outrageous but still quite a low likelihood that it should happen.

 

To be honest a big plus is a home draw and I would have preferred Chelsea as their performances are more unreliable than the other 3. That said Hazard, Willian and their left back Alonso give me the wills as they always do well against us.

[Wymsey]

Reckon Wigan will beat Man City tomorrow.

They're doing well in their league, with games in hand over their nearest rivals, and will see this as a 'free hit' opportunity.

[Walshy5]

5 hours ago, Filbert_Ross said:

Why would Micheal Owen & Shay Given be up for fixing the draw?! ??‍♂️

£££££££££££

[Filbert_Ross]

41 minutes ago, Walshy5 said:

£££££££££££

& they bribe everyone who comes on to draw each round? 

[oxtonfox]

51 minutes ago, oxtonfox said:

I think the chances of "big 4" being separated in the 4 ties are about 22% or in betting odds 11/2 . This is not outrageous but still quite a low likelihood that it should happen.

 

To be honest a big plus is a home draw and I would have preferred Chelsea as their performances are more unreliable than the other 3. That said Hazard, Willian and their left back Alonso give me the wills as they always do well against us.

I made a mistake. There are 8 combinations out of a possible 56 that would keep the "big 4" separate. So that's a 1 in 7 chance or 8/1 if the bookies were offer fair odds.  Or put another way, the same odds as you trying to throw a total of "5" with two dice. Yours faithfully, captain saddo. 

[Dan LCFC]

7 hours ago, Far Post Gerry said:

You can hardly blame people for being suspicious. After the ridiculous carabao cup draws, proven high-level corruption and a perceived big club bias, i reckon you'd be way too trusting if you didn't even consider it.

 

That said, i don't think it was rigged. But it says a lot about the shit state football that so many people are so ready to assume it was.

That's it for me as well. I'm not saying the draw was definitely a fix but I'm surprised how ferociously people are ruling out the possibility that it could be. How can anyone have watched that Carabao Cup quarter final shambles and been totally confident?

 

For what it's worth in terms of making Europe the draw's actually benefited us. Providing Spurs get past Rochdale at home, then either Swansea or Sheff Weds away, Man City get past Wigan and Southampton, and Man Utd get past Brighton, then 7th will get in Europe unless of course, we win the cup and don't come 7th.

 

I'm sure I read that the mathematical possibility of Man Utd, Man City, Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all dodging each other 7 draws on the spin were less than a percent.

 

So yeah, I can't definitely say if it's a fix or not but I just can't 100% rule it out either.

[Dan LCFC]

1 hour ago, oxtonfox said:

I made a mistake. There are 8 combinations out of a possible 56 that would keep the "big 4" separate. So that's a 1 in 7 chance or 8/1 if the bookies were offer fair odds.  Or put another way, the same odds as you trying to throw a total of "5" with two dice. Yours faithfully, captain saddo. 

I looked on Skybet specials to try and back that exact outcome and couldn't find it anywhere. Irritatingly.

[Stadt]

It’s not like the governing body of the game would be embroiled in a corruption scandal or anything as serious having the right to host a World Cup being bought.

 

The FA cup draws probably aren’t fixed but would you be surprised if it came to light that they were? It’s not unreasonable for football fans to be suspicious of the authorities as for so long they’ve held fans in contempt.

[Harry - LCFC]

15 hours ago, Nalis said:

Possibly worked this out wrong but the probably of one of the bigger teams getting the smaller 4 was 4/7 (0.571). So the possibility of all 4 getting a smaller team is 0.571 x 0.571 x 0.571 x 0.571, which is only 0.106, or 10.6%.

 

Dont think it was fixed tho, just very fortunate.

You're thinking in the right direction but that's not quite right.

 

For the first tie, the chance of one of the elite playing someone outside the top six is indeed 4/7.

 

But after the first pair of balls have been drawn there are only six teams left, so the chances of one of the elite avoiding the others is 3/5 for the second pair of balls picked out.

 

That leaves two elite teams left out of four. The chances of it happening again on the third pair of balls is 2/3.

 

So the probability of the elite teams all avoiding each other = 4/7 x 3/5 x 2/3 = 0.229 = 22.9%

[Dan LCFC]

42 minutes ago, Wookie said:

It’s not like the governing body of the game would be embroiled in a corruption scandal or anything as serious having the right to host a World Cup being bought.

 

The FA cup draws probably aren’t fixed but would you be surprised if it came to light that they were? It’s not unreasonable for football fans to be suspicious of the authorities as for so long they’ve held fans in contempt.

Held fans in contempt, and as much as ever wanted to appeal to the global footballing community - which in English football terms, is the overseas fans of the top clubs.

 

I heard someone on the radio the other day saying how the TV figures for the Premier League were the lowest they've been in years in 2015/16 so it does kind of piece together. That's despite that season probably being the most interesting from a neutral point of view in years as well. Certainly the most exciting since 2013/14 anyway. Every other one has been effectively done by November.

[Dan LCFC]

31 minutes ago, Harry - LCFC said:

You're thinking in the right direction but that's not quite right.

 

For the first tie, the chance of one of the elite playing someone outside the top six is indeed 4/7.

 

But after the first pair of balls have been drawn there are only six teams left, so the chances of one of the elite avoiding the others is 3/5 for the second pair of balls picked out.

 

That leaves two elite teams left out of four. The chances of it happening again on the third pair of balls is 2/3.

 

So the probability of the elite teams all avoiding each other = 4/7 x 3/5 x 2/3 = 0.229 = 22.9%

That's just for this round. Hasn't happened once in the whole tournament, or last year until there was no way it couldn't (5 of them were in the last 8). It didn't happen once in the League Cup this season either.

 

Like I say, it isn't something I could come on here and prove, but piecing together a lot of the motives in football nowadays and the outcome, it seems a bit convenient to me.

[foxinsox]

On 17/02/2018 at 20:35, foxinsox said:

Nah! Rochdale and Wigan will get through... 

Can I just point out what a Nostrodamus I am! 

[RODNEY FERNIO]

On ‎2‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 21:29, Wymeswold fox said:

Reckon Wigan will beat Man City tomorrow.

They're doing well in their league, with games in hand over their nearest rivals, and will see this as a 'free hit' opportunity.

Hope you got down the bookies Wymsey ... think they were around 25-1 to beat Citeh