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CosbehFox

The Race for 7th - Stats Galore

By CosbehFox, in Leicester City Forum

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lancyclaret

lancyclaret

Posted
Posted (edited)

Getting interesting heading into April (I'm presuming Everton lose at home to Man City on March 31)

 

LEICESTER: home - Arsenal (3), Newcastle (3), Southampton (1), West Ham (3); away - Brighton (1), Palace (0), Burnley (?), Spurs (1).

 

BURNLEY: home - Chelsea (1), Leicester (?), Brighton (1), Bournemouth (3); away - West Brom (0) Watford (3), Stoke (0), Arsenal (0).

 

Leicester 37 52

Burnley....37 51

Edited by lancyclaret
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David Hankey

David Hankey

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Obviously the away game against Burnley will be critical but to be honest had we not had so many indifferent performances of late we should have caught and overatken Arsenal in 6th. We been 8th since the turn of the year and so had plenty of time and games to progress upwards.

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HighPeakFox

HighPeakFox

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11 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

Obviously the away game against Burnley will be critical but to be honest had we not had so many indifferent performances of late we should have caught and overatken Arsenal in 6th. We been 8th since the turn of the year and so had plenty of time and games to progress upwards.

Yes. However, we didn't. Come on LCFC!

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MC Prussian

MC Prussian

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Posted

Obviously a bit of a "How many points are we going to get from the last remaining games?" kind of input from my side:

 

31/03 Brighton & Hove Albion (a)

07/04 Newcastle United (h)

14/04 Burnley FC (a)

21/04 Southampton FC (h)

28/04 Crystal Palace FC (a)

05/05 West Ham United FC (h)

13/05 Tottenham Hotspur (a)

 

The first six games are all crucial, really. In particular the matchup against Burnley itself. It's going to be a tough ask in my eyes - Brighton have resurfaced, Newcastle have also regained some strength, whilst Southampton, West Ham and Crystal Palace are all trying to avoid relegation.

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KingsX

KingsX

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4 hours ago, Wookie said:

xG table is quite favourable once again 

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Fantastic website if like me, you're a football stats and analytics borderline obsessive.

Jeez that's unflattering to Burnley.  And shows one limitation of xG against.  Burnley do allow a fair number of shots from central areas.  But that is what they are set up to do, and those are usually the only good shots they allow.  Their defenders are positioned to prevent them becoming goals, and they have the CBs to make it work.  Mee and Tarkowski are both top four in the PL for blocks, despite games missed.

 

That nit picked, that is a good site and I wish their PL numbers went back further.  I would like to see what our xGA was in the title season, with all the possession and crosses we allowed.  Morgan and Huth were third and sixth in blocks that year,

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RutlanderFox

RutlanderFox

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Posted
5 hours ago, Wookie said:

xG table is quite favourable once again 

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Fantastic website if like me, you're a football stats and analytics borderline obsessive.

Do you know how they calculate XG points? One would assume they hand out 3 for a win, one for a draw and 0 for a loss as usual based on whether that team got more XG than their opponent every match but clearly that’s not the case with teams having decimal figures representing their total number of XG points

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lancyclaret

lancyclaret

Posted
Posted (edited)

There is another interesting website for stats and predictions....www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

, 

 

It has Arsenal with an 83% chance of 6th, Burnley 10%, Leicester 4%.

 

For 7th, it has Burnley 50%, Leicester 27%, Arsenal 11%, Watford 6%

 

Burnley to finish 12th is 1% and Leicester 13th is 1%.

 

West Brom to be relegated is 98%, Stoke 63%, Palace 34%, Southampton 25%, Huddersfield 25%

Edited by lancyclaret
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Stadt

Stadt

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, RutlanderFox said:

Do you know how they calculate XG points? One would assume they hand out 3 for a win, one for a draw and 0 for a loss as usual based on whether that team got more XG than their opponent every match but clearly that’s not the case with teams having decimal figures representing their total number of XG points

I don't know actually, probably due to simulating who is most likely to win based on xG - 11tegen11 for example has percentage of how often a team should win with a particular game's values.

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CosbehFox

CosbehFox

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Latest update - been off work for a couple of days, so not been nearby the main spreadsheet. Only two teams are within five points or less; Burnley and Leicester. An Arsenal loss on Sunday would have seen them involved. 

 

Averages

To hit the average points total for 7th, LCFC need 16 points from 24 - 2 points per game. 

To hit the lowest points total for 7th, LCFC need 7 points from 24 - 0.88 points per game. 

To hit the highest points total for 7th, LCFC need 22 points from 24 - 2.75 points per game. 

 

Form

Last 6

Burnley 55

Leicester 48

 

Last 10

Burnley 51

Leicester 50

 

Reverse results

Leicester 56 - the Puel bounce is reflected. 

Burnley 56

 

Next week fixtures

No league game for Burnley or Leicester. 

Everton and Watford can both come within 5 points though -

Stoke v Everton 3.00

Liverpool v Watford 5.30

 

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CosbehFox

CosbehFox

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On 13/03/2018 at 08:58, MC Prussian said:

The first six games are all crucial, really. In particular the matchup against Burnley itself. It's going to be a tough ask in my eyes - Brighton have resurfaced, Newcastle have also regained some strength, whilst Southampton, West Ham and Crystal Palace are all trying to avoid relegation.

The difficulty is it's hard to predict the circumstance of that game at that time. This is more of an issue in April/May when teams who are safe simply down tools.

 

For example, West Ham might be clear by start of May or Newcastle might be 6 to possibly 9 clear. Southampton has a good chance of being moved due to the Cup; you'd be thinking that fixture then gets played May - circumstances likely to have changed. 

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dsr-burnley

dsr-burnley

Posted
Posted
On 3/13/2018 at 09:10, Wookie said:

xG table is quite favourable once again 

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Fantastic website if like me, you're a football stats and analytics borderline obsessive.

No offence to the presenters who no doubt do a lot of work, but according to that league table West Brom are a better side and have a better defence than Burnley.  That means there is a big flaw in the calculations.

 

At least, I hope when you compare their performance last Saturday with our performance when you come to the Turf, you won't agree with them!

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