The Race for 7th - Stats Galore

[Domsdad]

Talk sports "super computer" has us to finish 7th. WBA Southampton and Stoke to go down

[coalvillefox]

I have also had a look at this using our results against teams in a similar position to those we are going to play and put them into 6 categories.

Home Top Six (HS) W1, D1, L2 Average Points 1.00

Away Top Six (AS) W0, D1, L5 Average Points 0.17

Home Mid Table (HM) W3, D0, L0 Average Points 3.00

Away Mid Table (AM) W2, D4, L2 Average Points 1.25

Home Bottom (HB) W2, D1, L1 Average Points 1.75

Away Bottom (AB) W1, D1, L0 Average Points 2.00

 

If you then put that average points per game against the sides we have left to play it looks like this:

	Games	Avg	Total	Points 19.67
HS	1	1.00	1.00
AS	1	0.17	0.17
HM	3	3.00	9.00		Total 54.67
AM	3	1.25	3.75
HB	1	1.75	1.75
AB	2	2.00	4.00

 

[Guest]

so I'm not mad to think we can finish top 8 then?

[09bballer]

I think I'm right in saying 7th would be our 2nd best Premier League finish? (To beat the 10th under Martin O'Neill).

 

But where would it rate in our all-time finishes?

[Steven]

Second best all-time finish? 

[billyfox1]

9 minutes ago, 09bballer said:

I think I'm right in saying 7th would be our 2nd best Premier League finish? (To beat the 10th under Martin O'Neill).

 

But where would it rate in our all-time finishes?

It would be our 2nd best Premier League finish but O'Neill finished 8th. We have had numerous 7th and above top flight finishes over the years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Leicester_City_F.C._seasons

[coalvillefox]

8 minutes ago, 09bballer said:

I think I'm right in saying 7th would be our 2nd best Premier League finish? (To beat the 10th under Martin O'Neill).

 

But where would it rate in our all-time finishes?

In the old Div 1, finishes of 7th or above:

1926-27 - 7th

1927-28 - 3rd

1928-29 - 2nd

1960-61 - 6th

1962-63 - 4th

1965-66 - 7th

1975-76 - 7th

 

1999-00 - 8th

[KingsX]

 

All this math from a forum that can't even conclude whether sixth, seventh -- or eighth   -- will make Europe.

[turtmcfly]

19 hours ago, Vacamion said:

I hope this thread does get updated, I have loved these types of threads over recent years.

 

I can guarantee that, as always in here, we will swing between wild optimism and dark dark Saturday evenings of pessimism.

 

Bring it on.

Something tells me there'll be no wild swings from @Kitchandro 

[RutlanderFox]

6 hours ago, FoxFossil said:

Just need to win our last game of the season, the cup final. Simples!

And the quarter final and semi final!

Edited 21 February 2018 by RutlanderFox

[RutlanderFox]

5 hours ago, coalvillefox said:

I have also had a look at this using our results against teams in a similar position to those we are going to play and put them into 6 categories.

Home Top Six (HS) W1, D1, L2 Average Points 1.00

Away Top Six (AS) W0, D1, L5 Average Points 0.17

Home Mid Table (HM) W3, D0, L0 Average Points 3.00

Away Mid Table (AM) W2, D4, L2 Average Points 1.25

Home Bottom (HB) W2, D1, L1 Average Points 1.75

Away Bottom (AB) W1, D1, L0 Average Points 2.00

 

If you then put that average points per game against the sides we have left to play it looks like this:

	Games	Avg	Total	Points 19.67
HS	1	1.00	1.00
AS	1	0.17	0.17
HM	3	3.00	9.00		Total 54.67
AM	3	1.25	3.75
HB	1	1.75	1.75
AB	2	2.00	4.00

 

Out of interest, how have you differentiated between “mid table” and “bottom” teams

[fuchsntf]

14 hours ago, vanity said:

I am sure there are lots like you, just like there are a number of us that enjoy analyzing the points race and considering what the team will need to manage over their final games to wrangle a Europa spot.

Fair dues....but I Spent,all These years doing exactly same,THEN the title!!!

 

This season is Like a Gift from the Football gods.

1st Concern,because of Shakespeare's unfortunate lack of Inspiration/imagination,

then a @fif eureka Moment!!!  We are competing for top 7, relax for the First time in

Years,Just to have that Feeling..wow No Relegation demons, No must Points/wins.

 

Watch a new Manager, rebuilding,slowly redevelope,make subtle but needed changes,

Feeding and allowing ambition ,that not only opens potential for the next season,but

Keeps that interest open for still completing a successfull non stressfull EOS.

I, in fact all older Fans have earnt,the right to sit back Take a breather, and be

layed Back and nonchalent,to see what this season brings...

 

 

But. Shhh,. Shush now..!! secretely with tightly held  bum cheeks, hoping that silverpot(FA),

just might fall ourway.

 

 

[lancyclaret]

Although amazingly still 7th after NO win in 10, I don't think Burnley are really in the race for 7th anymore.

 

We are playing OK still in most matches - Swansea and Palace apart - but with 6/7 of our first-choice starting XI out for big chunks of the season since November, injuries will see us limp just past the finishing line.

 

Heaton was injured in the 4th match and since Robbie Brady ruled himself out for the rest of the season against yourselves just before Christmas, we have also lost Stephen Ward (not won since he was injured against Stoke on Dec 12), Chris Wood (Dec 23), James Tarkowski (missed 7 games recently through injury and suspension), Jon Walters, Phil Bardsley, Matt Lowton, Dean Marney (all at various times) but the biggest blow was losing our best player Steven Defour for the rest of the season after the 24th match against Man United.

 

Some of these players will obviously return soon but, crucially, not Defour and Brady who are our two most creative and skilful players. We can still raise our game some times like in the 1-1 v Man City or the 2-2 at Old Trafford, but Dyche is having trouble motivating a depleted squad for away games against the likes of Palace, Newcastle and Swansea. Before Xmas, we would have been winning or drawing these matches but now we are losing them 1-0 or struggling to draw 0-0/1-1. Also our recent run of results has not been helped by 4 successive home games against Spurs, Liverpool, Man United, Man City.

 

We played well in all of them except Spurs but still only managed one point from 12 with Liverpool getting an injury-time winner.

 

So I see Leicester finishing 7th with Everton/Boremouth your main challengers. I hope we can hang on to 10th - our first half of the season probably merits a Top Ten finish but I will be relieved when we get to the 40-point mark. 

 

Strangely, we still have Leicester (8th), Everton (9th), Bournemouth (10th) to play at Turf Moor.

Edited 23 February 2018 by lancyclaret

[FoxFossil]

On 2/21/2018 at 13:54, KingsX said:

 

All this math from a forum that can't even conclude whether sixth, seventh -- or eighth   -- will make Europe.

I  can't follow this without a coloured-in spread sheet.

It was that attention to detail that won us the league

[KingsX]

3 hours ago, lancyclaret said:

Although amazingly still 7th after NO win in 10, I don't think Burnley are really in the race for 7th anymore.

 

We are playing OK still in most matches - Swansea and Palace apart - but with 6/7 of our first-choice starting XI out for big chunks of the season since November, injuries will see us limp just past the finishing line.

I think Europa League would be a curse for you.  A mixed blessing for most outside the top six, but the deeper and less fragile the squad, the less “mixed”.  In our case well worth the go. 

[lancyclaret]

It would be nice to finish 7th but I would hate to have an embarrassing Everton-type Europa League campaign. Scraped through a qualifier and were rubbish in the group stages.

 

West Ham and Southampton had similar laughable recent EL campaigns - both failing to make group stage.

 

Unlike some of the PL's nouveau riche like Brighton and Bournemouth, Burnley have already had a couple of good Euro journeys in the 1960s, so I'd prefer no distractions next season - Dyche always does his best to get Burnley out of the cups as quick as possible. Accrington, Lincoln last season. Leeds and Man City this season. He had to beat Blackburn.

[lancyclaret]

I expected you to beat Stoke and be on 38 points tonight against our 36/37. Watch Everton leapfrog us both with a win at Watford..........and we are at home to The Toffees next week,

 

The way the Foxes, Burnley and even Everton are playing at the moment, Bournemouth or someone like West Ham or Brighton still might finish 7th.

 

Brighton in Europe next season, anyone?:)

Edited 24 February 2018 by lancyclaret

[Suzie the Fox]

6 hours ago, lancyclaret said:

I expected you to beat Stoke and be on 38 points tonight against our 36/37. Watch Everton leapfrog us both with a win at Watford..........and we are at home to The Toffees next week,

 

The way the Foxes, Burnley and even Everton are playing at the moment, Bournemouth or someone like West Ham or Brighton still might finish 7th.

 

Brighton in Europe next season, anyone?:)

Everton were bloody rubbish today and the game was less exciting than ours v Stoke. Glad they didn't get any points and their current position flatters them, especially taking into account the amount of money they've spent. 

 

Edited 24 February 2018 by Suzie the Fox

[Sir Shep]

Our form of late hasn’t been great yet we are still 8th which is crazy, I think any team around mid table now who puts a run together will look good for 7th. 

 

Just goes to to show how crap this league is outside of the top 6 to me. 

[CosbehFox]

Will be an update at lunch

[CosbehFox]

First of all, welcome to Watford who are now within 2 games results of 7th. After saying it would be a decisive weekend, all teams stayed equal to each other. 

 

Average points:

City require 20 pts from 30 pts to achieve the average points required for 7th. (2 pts per game)

City require 11 pts from 30 pts to achieve the lowest points required for 7th. (1.1 pts per game)

City require 26 pts from 30 pts to achieve the highest points required for 7th. (2.6 pts per game)

 

Using that as an indication, it's fair to say it's going to be somewhere between the lowest and average required amount. 

 

Form: 

Using last six games, the table will finish. 

Bournemouth 50

Watford 46

Leicester 46

Everton 46

Burnley 42

 

Using last ten games, the table will finish. 

Bournemouth 48

Leicester 46

Watford 44

Everton 43

Burnley 42

 

If we reverse the results, 

Burnley 54 

Leicester 54

Everton 52

Watford 50

Bournemouth 36 - incredible only 4 points. 

 

Doing a bit more fixture analysis 

Burnley have to play all four of the 'Race for 7th' and 2 of the top six.

Leicester 2 of the 'Race for 7th' / 2 of the top six. 

Everton 1 of the 'Race for 7th' / 2 of the top six.

Watford 2 of the 'Race for 7th' / 4 of the top six. 

Bournemouth 3 of the 'Race for 7th' / 3 of the top six. 

 

I have a spreadsheet in the pipeline - hopefully have it done by the end of the week. 

 

Games this weekend are:-

Burnley v Everton 12.30

Leicester v Bournemouth 3.00

Watford v West Brom 3.00

 

[lestajigs]

We’ve got no chance of 7th, the shit were playing at the min 

[Stan]

2 minutes ago, lestajigs said:

We’ve got no chance of 7th, the shit were playing at the min 

That's the spirit!

[Harry - LCFC]

1 hour ago, lestajigs said:

We’ve got no chance of 7th, the shit were playing at the min 

We've been bad recently, but so have our rivals. We've got every chance still.

[FoxFossil]

1 hour ago, lestajigs said:

We’ve got no chance of 7th, the shit were playing at the min 

Once the spread sheet is up and running, we will go from strength to strength. Also need to find my prem winning pyjamas. We can do this.