Trav Le Bleu Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 What is happening here? It all seems very bizarre to me. Firstly, the target is still alive and secondly, the supposed nerve agent is all over the place, in the pub, in the restaurant, on the car, on a grave... it all seems a very shotgun effort at assassinating someone. So I'm wondering, are Russian secret agents really so inept? Wouldn't a well placed sniper have been more clinical and effective, or is this testament to the effectiveness of our gun laws? Do MI5 actually know what's happened? Not at all sure about these people who are worried because they were somewhere near. If they feel fine, it's probably because they are fine. Makes me wonder if all the government advice is just baloney to harden the public's attitude to Russia in preparation for tough sanctions on them. What's other people's take on this?
leicsmac Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 I do wonder if there is a lot more to this than is being reported. My thought is that if Putin wanted someone dead...they'd be dead, with at best tenuous and deniable links back to any Russian involvement. So the way this has been spectacularly messy speaks of something else going on.
Strokes Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 4 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said: What is happening here? It all seems very bizarre to me. Firstly, the target is still alive and secondly, the supposed nerve agent is all over the place, in the pub, in the restaurant, on the car, on a grave... it all seems a very shotgun effort at assassinating someone. So I'm wondering, are Russian secret agents really so inept? Wouldn't a well placed sniper have been more clinical and effective, or is this testament to the effectiveness of our gun laws? Do MI5 actually know what's happened? Not at all sure about these people who are worried because they were somewhere near. If they feel fine, it's probably because they are fine. Makes me wonder if all the government advice is just baloney to harden the public's attitude to Russia in preparation for tough sanctions on them. What's other people's take on this? No idea but it seems a bit quick to say it is Putin with very little evidence. I’ve no doubt he is capable of such things but that’s not how we do things is it?
Charl91 Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 30 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said: Firstly, the target is still alive and secondly, the supposed nerve agent is all over the place, in the pub, in the restaurant, on the car, on a grave... it all seems a very shotgun effort at assassinating someone. So I'm wondering, are Russian secret agents really so inept? Wouldn't a well placed sniper have been more clinical and effective, or is this testament to the effectiveness of our gun laws? Do MI5 actually know what's happened? With it being a nerve agent, it sends a clear message, in the same way that the polonium did. The point is to make it as obvious as possible. A sniper shot would be easier to play off as something else, and wouldn't make the headlines as much. No doubt they could've killed them much more quietly and effectively, but whoever did this (either Putin, or someone else trying to implicate Russia in it) wanted a public uproar. It's essentially a big "fvck you" both to the UK, and more importantly, any Agents who were thinking about going against Russia (assuming it is Putin, at least).
separator Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 Can only assume the Russians like a slow painful public death for those who spy against them, although hasn't worked this time.
Charl91 Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 6 minutes ago, separator said: Can only assume the Russians like a slow painful public death for those who spy against them, although hasn't worked this time. Hasn't worked yet. Took a while for Litvinenko to die, if I remember correctly.
Wymsey Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 3 minutes ago, Charl91 said: Hasn't worked yet. Took a while for Litvinenko to die, if I remember correctly. Apparently Litvinenko's condition improved a bit before it suddenly declined rapidly.
Jon the Hat Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 Definitely Putin. He doesn’t give a ****. Clear message to anyone thinking of spying on Russia; we won’t forget.
Webbo Posted 11 March 2018 Posted 11 March 2018 They could have easily arranged a car accident or a mugging gone wrong. They could have even bumped him off when he was in prison in Russia. It's obviously done to boost his popularity at home and it no doubt will.
leicsmac Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 35 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: Definitely Putin. He doesn’t give a ****. Clear message to anyone thinking of spying on Russia; we won’t forget. Right, I get that. But why all the spectacular mess? Simply killing him with a little bit of pomp to it would have had the same effect with less of the drawbacks, surely?
Vardinio'sCat Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 I think there does look to be signalling (to other ex-spies) going on, as the Russians appear to have done more subtle stuff before. I think Webbo's point that it will play well for Putin at home is a good one, it is election time, and although the result is not in doubt, more votes will be good for Vladimir. Tweaking the tail, and undermining the West seems a favourite game for him, and bolsters his image as a strong man domestically. The sloppiness of it reminds me of Litvinyenko, they left a big messy trail behind them too. It doesn't look that good on TM though, all that stalling on the polonium case, 9 years to have an inquest and all, looks a bit foolish in retrospect. The amount of Russian money (some of it quite dirty) in the country makes things complicated for UK plc. I have this feeling we (the UK) are making the most of the whole issue, rather than playing it down (as we did with Litvinyenko), perhaps doing some signalling of our own. Maybe TM thinks she got taken for a ride last time. I have some relatives that are reasonably close to some well-known Russian figures in this country, but we don't really talk, so I don't have any inside info. I do know there is a lot of oligarch money here (in the UK). If the Russians left en masse it would affect the top-end London economy to an extent, but we always have been a stable haven for hot money, so I'm sure another bunch of dodgy people would just take their place.
Finnegan Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 8 hours ago, leicsmac said: Right, I get that. But why all the spectacular mess? Simply killing him with a little bit of pomp to it would have had the same effect with less of the drawbacks, surely? Could really just legitimately have been human error. You'd have to imagine an intelligence agent isn't the easiest to assassinate anyway. I don't think they're really all that bothered about it being deniable. An ex Russian spy gets poisoned it's pretty obvious everyone knows what happened. If they wanted it to be subtle they'd have it look like a random mugging or a gas leak or something.
SpacedX Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 9 hours ago, Webbo said: They could have easily arranged a car accident or a mugging gone wrong. They could have even bumped him off when he was in prison in Russia. It's obviously done to boost his popularity at home and it no doubt will. I read this morning that it's not a nerve agent involved at all - rather the poison was self inflicted in a botched attempt to kill the ground ivy encroaching on his garden from the path at the back.
VLC86 Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 5 hours ago, Line-X said: I read this morning that it's not a nerve agent involved at all - rather the poison was self inflicted in a botched attempt to kill the ground ivy encroaching on his garden from the path at the back. Cool story Vlad.
leicsmac Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 6 hours ago, Finnegan said: Could really just legitimately have been human error. You'd have to imagine an intelligence agent isn't the easiest to assassinate anyway. I don't think they're really all that bothered about it being deniable. An ex Russian spy gets poisoned it's pretty obvious everyone knows what happened. If they wanted it to be subtle they'd have it look like a random mugging or a gas leak or something. Yeah, they definitely wanted people to know it was them but be able to hold up just a little figleaf of deniability IMO. I suppose the way that it seemingly went tits-up could just be down to incompetence, but the guys doing this are the last guys I would expect to be incompetent tbh - my guess is that incompetent wetwork guys wouldn't last long enough in the Russian system to be given a job like this.
Crinklyfox Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 This will probably play out as the investigation concluding that it was a nerve agent, they can't find the person responsible but conclude that only a state would have the means to produce such a nerve agent. The only state with a motive is Russia so that's where the finger will point. The government will be too scared to do anything that could cost a few quid so instead will protest by trying to get the FA to pull the England team out of the World Cup.
lifted*fox Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 putin could come over here and take a big fat russian poo on the queen's lap and we wouldn't do anything. we rely on russian money and gas too much. we will bend over and take it - as always.
Webbo Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 3 minutes ago, lifted*fox said: putin could come over here and take a big fat russian poo on the queen's lap and we wouldn't do anything. we rely on russian money and gas too much. we will bend over and take it - as always. What would your response be?
Countryfox Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 15 hours ago, leicsmac said: Right, I get that. But why all the spectacular mess? Simply killing him with a little bit of pomp to it would have had the same effect with less of the drawbacks, surely? No ... it has to be unusual and grab the headlines .... he wants everyone to know its him, its becoming a game to him now. He is a bigger despot than the ugly dwarf in Korea ... and a lot more dangerous.
Countryfox Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 16 hours ago, Jon the Hat said: Definitely Putin. He doesn’t give a ****. Clear message to anyone thinking of spying on Russia; we won’t forget. Not really sure that this one was a spy .. he actually just sold some info for cash on a one off basis ... more just a greedy cvnt i think.
Countryfox Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 20 minutes ago, Webbo said: What would your response be? Thats just it ... as Lifted said we will do sweet fa ... apart from a little hot air and sabre rattling. If we really wanted to do something we should freeze all Russian assets in this country. Even though he is the richest man in the world hitting him in his fur lined enormous wallet would make the fvcker blink.
leicsmac Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 4 minutes ago, Countryfox said: No ... it has to be unusual and grab the headlines .... he wants everyone to know its him, its becoming a game to him now. He is a bigger despot than the ugly dwarf in Korea ... and a lot more dangerous. I mentioned this earlier but I'll repeat: I get the need for the big show that's still a little deniable - but I don't get how it's seemingly been screwed up viz. the guy being still alive and there being a reasonable amount of collateral mess. The seeming incompetence seems...off, to me.
Webbo Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 Just now, Countryfox said: Thats just it ... as Lifted said we will do sweet fa ... apart from a little hot air and sabre rattling. If we really wanted to do something we should freeze all Russian assets in this country. Even though he is the richest man in the world hitting him in his fur lined enormous wallet would make the fvcker blink. There are already sanctions on Russia from when they annexed The Crimea, financial sanctions won't make any difference. I could see taking the World Cup off them affecting Putin's popularity but that'll never happen.
Countryfox Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 We have to be careful though ... I think things will get worse. He wants to get back some of the 'lost land' (who does that remind you of) and that will become easier by destabilising the west ... and for some reason us in particular. He is going to be president for life so his ego will drive him on ... I wouldn't be surprised if he will really get his teeth into us ... I really fear what might happen at the world cup for starters.
Countryfox Posted 12 March 2018 Posted 12 March 2018 6 minutes ago, leicsmac said: I mentioned this earlier but I'll repeat: I get the need for the big show that's still a little deniable - but I don't get how it's seemingly been screwed up viz. the guy being still alive and there being a reasonable amount of collateral mess. The seeming incompetence seems...off, to me. I'm not sure that he will survive ... and if he does he will never be the same again ... his daughter was posting a lot of anti Putin things so she was always a target as well. The Policeman was collateral damage but I don't think he gives a sh1t about that. No, overall a good day at the office for the little b@stard.
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