What's in the news?

[Jon the Hat]

No deal Brexit is known in the rest of the world as normal international trade.  Just get on with it.  It really isnt that hard!  Border customs checks going to mean a shortage of insulin?  Don't have any border customs checks.  It isn't that hard.

[lifted*fox]

no deal brexit is not happening, not now, not ever. 

 

not with may in charge, not with boris in charge, not with JRM in charge. 

 

the MP's of this country will not allow something that is going to severely harm the well-being of their constituents unfold like that - which is why so many are not supporting may's deal which is significantly less damaging than no deal. 

 

no deal was never alive, but if it was, it's dead. 

[davieG]

33 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

Politics and especially Breggzit is in the news every day and other stuff that's in the news is likely to fall into categories covered by existing threads. For instance the news relating to Raheem Sterling isn't even in this sub-forum. NZ incident neatly falls into Absolute ***** of Our Time as another example. It's nobody's fault or anything, just an observation. 

 

I'd wager this thread remains 90%+ politics as it is now, and therefore it's likely to attract the same issues as the politics thread which was eventually deemed binworthy. 

Sterling issue has it's own thread.

 

 

[rachhere]

2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

We have tried diligent competence under Theresa, and look where that has got us.  We need someone who believes and can take the country with him;  Let others worry about the details.

Donald Trump believes that he can make America great again... Likewise I am sure that Boris believes he can save the UK. The all important thing here is what is your definition of 'great'. 

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

Well ...  two big topics on the go today ...   women with fat fish like lips ...          and Brexit ...     

 

We'll take back control of British trout pouts once we leave the Common Fisheries Policy. 

[Countryfox]

 

I don't care who's in charge ...   as long as they haven't got big fishy lips ...   

[lifted*fox]

12 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

No deal Brexit is known in the rest of the world as normal international trade.  Just get on with it.  It really isnt that hard!  Border customs checks going to mean a shortage of insulin?  Don't have any border customs checks.  It isn't that hard.

 

no it isn't.

 

nobody trades on purely WTO rules - that is baseline - everyone has spent years building on that baseline - there is no other country dealing on WTO rules ONLY, currently. (correction, ONE)

 

in the time it will take to try and create deals with countries who are also looking out for their own interests (not going to roll over for us) the economy of the UK (what's left of it) will be ****ed. 

 

the head of the WTO (correction, ex-head of WTO) said yesterday that the UK choosing to bomb out on WTO rules only is like choosing to relegate ourselves to the 4th division of football. 

Edited 10 December 2018 by lifted*fox

[davieG]

Just now, Countryfox said:

 

I don't care who's in charge ...   as long as they haven't got big fishy lips ...   

Would go with the fishy politics and politicians though.

[siraaj_lcfc]

Is it bad i am studying politics and have no clue what u guys are on about?!

[Countryfox]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

We'll take back control of British trout pouts once we leave the Common Fisheries Policy. 

 

Hi Alf !!! ...   you ok ? ...   was beginning to think I was invisible ...    or everyone had me on ignore ! ...   

 

Anyway ...   thanks for the chat ...   I'll shut the door on the way out.    

[Countryfox]

1 minute ago, siraaj_lcfc said:

Is it bad i am studying politics and have no clue what u guys are on about?!

 

Future PM here on FT ...   got all the credentials ...   

[Foxxed]

30 minutes ago, MattP said:

Where are you getting that from?? Most recent polls are neck and neck and another hung parliament looks certain.

 

 

 

 

UK polling report. From 15 Nov though. Probably changed.

 

My point is the Tories could win an election but I'm not sure they'd want to. 

[lifted*fox]

Quote

The Results
Once I had the data, I could write a query to return all the countries that lacked any agreements. Upon running it, I found that many of the returned countries weren’t actually countries at all, but dependent territories like Bermuda and Puerto Rico. I therefore manually removed these. I was then left with this list:

 

Holy See
Mauritania
Monaco
Montenegro
Palau
Timor-Leste
Sao Tome and Principe
Serbia
Somalia
South Sudan
Sudan
Western Sahara

However again, I knew this wasn’t right Serbia and Montenegro are both members of CEFTA, so I investigated further. It turns out that neither are a member of WTO, which is why they have not notified the WTO of their agreements. So I then compared this list with a list of WTO members and removed any that were not members.

 

The next step would have been to order these by GDP, but that turned out to be unnecessary, as there is only one country in the world that trades only under WTO rules. That country:

 

MAURITANIA
For those of you not familiar with Mauritania, it’s GDP is $4,714million (0.2% of the UK’s), 50% of its exports consist of Iron Ore, and between 1% and 17% of the population still live in slavery.

It appears that this is the country that Leave.UK wish to emulate. I am afraid that this is not a vision for Britain’s future that I can share.

 

https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-actually-trades-solely-under-wto-rules-1b6127ce33c6

 

 

[lifted*fox]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/21/brexit-premier-league-side-wanting-to-be-relegated-wto-internal-market

 

Quote

At a recent event at the London School of Economics in honour of the late Peter Sutherland – the man who set up the WTO and whom Lamy succeeded – the latter could hardly have put it more plainly: “The internal market is the top league. The WTO is the bottom.”

The internal market is usually referred to in the UK as the single market, of which Mrs Thatcher was a passionate supporter, arguing that it would give the UK economy “access to over 300 million of the world’s most prosperous people, bigger than Japan, bigger than the US. It’s not some bureaucrat’s dream – it’s for real.”

The propagation and membership of the internal/single market was considered by former Tory chancellor Kenneth Clarke to be Margaret Thatcher’s greatest achievement.

But, thanks to the trade agreements the EU has with a fair proportion of the rest of the world, as the Office for Budget Responsibility reminds us in its Discussion Paper No 3, “when added to the 49% share of UK trade accounted for by members of the EU, altogether [existing] trade agreements reduce or eliminate tariffs for around 66% of UK trade.”

 

The idea of crashing out of the EU and trying to set up new trade agreements from scratch in a world that is going protectionist fast is, or ought to be, for the birds.

 

[Foxxed]

9 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

No deal Brexit is known in the rest of the world as normal international trade.  Just get on with it.  It really isnt that hard!  Border customs checks going to mean a shortage of insulin?  Don't have any border customs checks.  It isn't that hard.

Paying for market access. No guarantee of access. Following EU rules for access. Having no say in those rules. 40% of our economy, and the most lucrative part, reliant on that. Not to mention NI. There may be a reason nearly every major politician is against it.

[Mayofox]

The Bank of England, the CBI, and of course the Government's own technical papers say a No deal would be calamitous for the UK.  A vote to be poorer and have less influence in the world.  

[Captain...]

2 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

 

https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-actually-trades-solely-under-wto-rules-1b6127ce33c6

 

 

Great post, but you miss one crucial thing about relegating ourselves to 4th tier of the business world, all of our processes and facilities are set up to operate at the top level.

 

The administrative impact of switching tariffs on all imported products is huge, I work for an international company and it will take them weeks if not months to adjust all their pricing, purchase agreements, accounting rules, documentation and after that they are not sure what it will mean in terms customs declarations in the event of a no deal and financial reporting and the countless other things that will impact trade.

 

This is just a fraction of what will need to happen at freight ports. The cost to internationally trading companies is going to be huge and nobody knows what they are going to have to implement and how long they will have to do it in the event of a no deal. The knock on effect will be companies moving manufacturing and distribution to mainland Europe to avoid tariffs.

[lifted*fox]

1 minute ago, Mayofox said:

The Bank of England, the CBI, and of course the Government's own technical papers say a No deal would be calamitous for the UK.  A vote to be poorer and have less influence in the world.  

 

PEOPLE ARE SICK AND TIRED OF EXPERTS B2B PROJECT FEAR THO

 

[lifted*fox]

5 minutes ago, Captain... said:

Great post, but you miss one crucial thing about relegating ourselves to 4th tier of the business world, all of our processes and facilities are set up to operate at the top level.

 

The administrative impact of switching tariffs on all imported products is huge, I work for an international company and it will take them weeks if not months to adjust all their pricing, purchase agreements, accounting rules, documentation and after that they are not sure what it will mean in terms customs declarations in the event of a no deal and financial reporting and the countless other things that will impact trade.

 

This is just a fraction of what will need to happen at freight ports. The cost to internationally trading companies is going to be huge and nobody knows what they are going to have to implement and how long they will have to do it in the event of a no deal. The knock on effect will be companies moving manufacturing and distribution to mainland Europe to avoid tariffs.

 

all good points mate

 

my company export/import to/from the EU and we also export/import to/from the rest of the world. 

 

my product going to the EU is as simple as whacking it out on a courier and off it goes - no extra documentation, no extra rules, etc. 

 

my product going to the rest of the world = huge amounts of documentation, days (if not weeks) of the product sitting in customs checks / holds and the numerous charges that go with it. 

 

I see all of this first hand - I get the feeling most of the people championing WTO baseline have never imported/exported for business and haven't the slightest about the complexities and hardships.

 

it's not perfect as it is - making it any harder and adding any more paperwork / issues is going to turn it into a nightmare that isn't worth bothering with.

 

Edited 10 December 2018 by lifted*fox

[Buce]

27 minutes ago, siraaj_lcfc said:

Is it bad i am studying politics and have no clue what u guys are on about?!

 

Don’t worry, mate. 

 

We don’t know what we’re on about either. 

[Jon the Hat]

4 minutes ago, Captain... said:

Great post, but you miss one crucial thing about relegating ourselves to 4th tier of the business world, all of our processes and facilities are set up to operate at the top level.

 

The administrative impact of switching tariffs on all imported products is huge, I work for an international company and it will take them weeks if not months to adjust all their pricing, purchase agreements, accounting rules, documentation and after that they are not sure what it will mean in terms customs declarations in the event of a no deal and financial reporting and the countless other things that will impact trade.

 

This is just a fraction of what will need to happen at freight ports. The cost to internationally trading companies is going to be huge and nobody knows what they are going to have to implement and how long they will have to do it in the event of a no deal. The knock on effect will be companies moving manufacturing and distribution to mainland Europe to avoid tariffs.

Sorry who said we are changing tariffs?  We can unilaterally not apply any tarries on imports from the EU and maintain all other tariffs as they are for as long as we choose.  This is the thing about managing your own trade policy - you get to set your own rules.  

 

All of the models assume we do bloody insane things, rather than the blindingly obvious simple and most practical routes, which is to leave the EU and maintain unilaterally all zero and existing rate tariffs as they are.

We can also while we are at it continue to honur existing payment schedules to farmers so they are not out of pocket.  Etc.  Really not that difficult.

 

Then after things settle down, we can build some capability, and lo if they EU has decided to impose tariffs on imports for the UK, we could for example add them at a time of our choosing to say Cars.  Good hey?  Meanwhile, unlike Theresa's deal we can actually make trade deals with the rest of the world - which unlike now - will only have to suit us, not 27 other states with varying industrial and political interests.

[Foxxed]

The government spent 100k on Facebook ads for this Brexit deal.

 

I can't remember the government ever advertising in newspapers when I was young.

 

Have I just forgot it?

[Jon the Hat]

4 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

 

all good points mate

 

my company export/import to/from the EU and we also export/import to/from the rest of the world. 

 

my product going to the EU is as simple as whacking it out on a courier and off it goes - no extra documentation, no extra rules, etc. 

 

my product going to the rest of the world = huge amounts of documentation, days (if not weeks) of the product sitting in customs checks / holds and the numerous charges that go with it. 

 

I see all of this first hand - I get the feeling most of the people championing WTO baseline have never imported/exported for business and haven't the slightest about the complexities and hardships.

 

it's not perfect as it is - making it any harder and adding any more paperwork / issues is going to turn it into a nightmare that isn't worth bothering with.

 

Exactly, so you would have to be ****ing insane to add it.

[lifted*fox]

2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Exactly, so you would have to be ****ing insane to add it.

 

i'm not sure what you mean Jon? 

 

trading with the EU is so easy because we have agreed trade rules and product requirements which must be met and adhered to. 

 

by adhering to these we have an agreement that our goods are ethically sound, safe and fit for purpose and therefore they cross borders with no issues.

 

by exiting the EU and making our own rules on product safety, what is ethical and fit for purpose means we no longer adhere to EU rules and our products will need to be checked before crossing borders. 

 

this will by it's very nature mean more paperwork, red-tape, costs and delays than we experience now.

 

are you suggesting that we can just bomb out on WTO and not require any other changes to paperwork / shipping methods? 

[Jon the Hat]

14 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

 

i'm not sure what you mean Jon? 

 

trading with the EU is so easy because we have agreed trade rules and product requirements which must be met and adhered to. 

 

by adhering to these we have an agreement that our goods are ethically sound, safe and fit for purpose and therefore they cross borders with no issues.

 

by exiting the EU and making our own rules on product safety, what is ethical and fit for purpose means we no longer adhere to EU rules and our products will need to be checked before crossing borders. 

 

this will by it's very nature mean more paperwork, red-tape, costs and delays than we experience now.

 

are you suggesting that we can just bomb out on WTO and not require any other changes to paperwork / shipping methods? 

You are quite wrong - we can unilaterally align to EU rules as long as we want to - the day after no deal Brexit, we will still be just as compliant with EU rules as we are the day before, so why should there be extra paperwork?  Yes this could diverge over time, but aligning to European or even global standards on goods i not a bad thing in the vast majority of cases, so there is no reason it has to.

 

We then call the EU's bluff by not putting tariffs on anything.  They of course are free to put tariffs on, but we make it clear that we will match tariffs with those of our own, so there is no benefit in them doing so.