Brexit!

[Innovindil]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

I think you should renounce your status as a Forest fan before you're allowed on this forum....... 

Reported for personal abuse. 

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Innovindil said:

Reported for personal abuse. 

 

Please get me banned. I'd get so much more done in life..... 

[Alf Bentley]

Tories apparently producing election leaflets on the assumption that Brexit won't have happened by the election..... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50029635

 

"Conservative leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party accepts the UK might not have left the EU by the time it has to fight an election. One says voting for The Brexit Party would mean "more delay" because Nigel Farage's party "can't deliver Brexit". The "new campaigning products", made available to agents and activists last week, also reveal some of the arguments the party may use in an election. [...]

 

Another leaflet is aimed at people who voted Leave in 2016 who are now tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats. This leaflet says "without a strong majority government Brexit won't get delivered", again suggesting the party intends on sending this leaflet out after the UK's departure has been delayed".

[bovril]

29 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Tories apparently producing election leaflets on the assumption that Brexit won't have happened by the election..... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50029635

 

"Conservative leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party accepts the UK might not have left the EU by the time it has to fight an election. One says voting for The Brexit Party would mean "more delay" because Nigel Farage's party "can't deliver Brexit". The "new campaigning products", made available to agents and activists last week, also reveal some of the arguments the party may use in an election. [...]

 

Another leaflet is aimed at people who voted Leave in 2016 who are now tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats. This leaflet says "without a strong majority government Brexit won't get delivered", again suggesting the party intends on sending this leaflet out after the UK's departure has been delayed".

There is also a job going (can't find link now) as a PA to a conservative MEP in Brussels. Starts November 4th.

[bovril]

Would be funny if May voted against the new deal and it lost by one.

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Tories apparently producing election leaflets on the assumption that Brexit won't have happened by the election..... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50029635

 

"Conservative leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party accepts the UK might not have left the EU by the time it has to fight an election. One says voting for The Brexit Party would mean "more delay" because Nigel Farage's party "can't deliver Brexit". The "new campaigning products", made available to agents and activists last week, also reveal some of the arguments the party may use in an election. [...]

 

Another leaflet is aimed at people who voted Leave in 2016 who are now tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats. This leaflet says "without a strong majority government Brexit won't get delivered", again suggesting the party intends on sending this leaflet out after the UK's departure has been delayed".

And?  I’m sure they also have materials to use if we have left.

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

And?  I’m sure they also have materials to use if we have left.

 

You might well be right about that (though it's not mentioned).

 

But Boris has repeatedly given an absolute commitment that we'll leave on 31st October & said he'd rather be "dead in a ditch" than ask for an extension.....

 

Ah, well! We'll find out at least a bit more very soon.

[Jon the Hat]

44 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

You might well be right about that (though it's not mentioned).

 

But Boris has repeatedly given an absolute commitment that we'll leave on 31st October & said he'd rather be "dead in a ditch" than ask for an extension.....

 

Ah, well! We'll find out at least a bit more very soon.

Boris doesn't run the party though

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

You might well be right about that (though it's not mentioned).

 

But Boris has repeatedly given an absolute commitment that we'll leave on 31st October & said he'd rather be "dead in a ditch" than ask for an extension.....

 

Ah, well! We'll find out at least a bit more very soon.

He has, but virtually every Brexiteer/Tory voter I know is fully prepared now to give him the benefit of the doubt and realises parliament has sabotaged him. 

 

My cousin who knows nothing about politics even mentioned "the surrender bill"

[Strokes]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

He has, but virtually every Brexiteer/Tory voter I know is fully prepared now to give him the benefit of the doubt and realises parliament has sabotaged him. 

 

My cousin who knows nothing about politics even mentioned "the surrender bill"

I wasn’t on board with his methods but he has turned my I opinion around. I will most likely vote for conservatives in the upcoming GE.

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I wasn’t on board with his methods but he has turned my I opinion around. I will most likely vote for conservatives in the upcoming GE.

Yeah I was in the "Brexit party if after 31st" camp as well but I now feel doing that hands the victory to Hillary Benn etc

 

The plan from them all along appears to have been just to get to that date and then try and paint him as the villain - not going to work after what they've done to him.

[Claridge]

24 minutes ago, MattP said:

He has, but virtually every Brexiteer/Tory voter I know is fully prepared now to give him the benefit of the doubt and realises parliament has sabotaged him. 

 

My cousin who knows nothing about politics even mentioned "the surrender bill"

My teenage son who struggles to bring his plates down to wash after a 24 hr Xbox session mentioned the traitors in parliament. Had no idea that he knew what Parliament was.

[Strokes]

19 minutes ago, MattP said:

Yeah I was in the "Brexit party if after 31st" camp as well but I now feel doing that hands the victory to Hillary Benn etc

 

The plan from them all along appears to have been just to get to that date and then try and paint him as the villain - not going to work after what they've done to him.

We need as many of that 52% as possible to vote in unity in GE. Or we could lose it. 
Id be amazed if this deal goes ahead because there is still a whiff of second ref/remain and I think some within the EU will gamble on that.

[Jon the Hat]

19 minutes ago, Strokes said:

We need as many of that 52% as possible to vote in unity in GE. Or we could lose it. 
Id be amazed if this deal goes ahead because there is still a whiff of second ref/remain and I think some within the EU will gamble on that.

To be honest, I expect the EU to gamble on kicking the can down the road with a compromise withdrawal agreement, then playing hardball again on the future relationship.  As I have said before, this is a very expensive route to take, but I suppose MPs would rather spend our money than risk no deal at this stage.

[Alf Bentley]

19 minutes ago, MattP said:

He has, but virtually every Brexiteer/Tory voter I know is fully prepared now to give him the benefit of the doubt and realises parliament has sabotaged him. 

 

My cousin who knows nothing about politics even mentioned "the surrender bill"

 

They'll have to rename the "surrender bill" if he ends up agreeing a deal with the EU but has to request an extension to get it signed off by the EU27, UK parliament, EU parliament etc. 

 

I'm still dubious that will happen, though. Earlier today they were still saying that no legal text had even been presented.

Plus, if the rumours are true, it sounds as if Boris is making major concessions and accepting an effective border in the Irish Sea. I'm suspicious at the lack of protest from the DUP so far. Will they really accept anything like that? 

I can see why the ERG would, as getting Brexit is their dominant aim, but the dominant aim of the DUP is not to see the union diluted, surely? DUP votes might be superflous, but might not - and their silence is odd....

 

The Blame Game outcome is still a runner for me: both UK and EU have carefully given the public impression that they're working for a deal, then everything collapses at the last minute, EU blames UK, Boris blames EU (or maybe even uses DUP objections) & then blames Parliament for forcing him into the "surrender extension" as a preliminary to a People v. Parliament/EU election, a 5-year majority & possibly a free run to No Deal in Jan/Feb or whenever.

 

If my cynicism is unjustified and he does agree a deal with the EU, I have genuinely mixed feelings about that. My first reaction to a deal avoiding potential problems in Ireland via a border in the Irish Sea was positive. But then, if an EU-UK deal is agreed and gets through parliament, there's the little matter of Johnson potentially winning a landslide on the back of that success, and having 5 years of unfettered power to establish Singapore-on-Thames or whatever other right-wing projects his party wants (always assuming his personal motivation is narcissism & power for its own sake).

 

Because, as things stand, nothing much is firmly agreed on the protection of employment/social/environmental rights, is it? Admittedly, there'd be sod all chance of a FTA with the EU if it is clear that he wants to have a bonfire of regulations and a race to the bottom on standards & rights to undercut the EU.....but maybe the Tories would opt for that and not bother about a FTA?

 

It's that risk that makes me wonder if you're over-estimating the number of Labour MPs (20) willing to support a deal that doesn't protect such rights? The likes of Kinnock and Nandy clearly want to vote for a deal but have repeatedly stressed the importance of such protection of rights. All Labour MPs will also be under massive pressure not to support a deal that doesn't offer such protection - and will be clear that they could be paving the way for 5 years of majority right-wing Tory Govt.

 

On the other hand, if a UK-EU deal "resolves" the Irish problem for now - and the Govt agrees to protections of employment/social/environmental rights (Kinnock's aim), I'd find it hard to quibble with that.

 

But if Boris somehow does a deal with the EU by throwing the DUP under the bus and doesn't make such concessions on rights, he still might not persuade enough Labour MPs or Tory Remain rebels to win a vote in parliament. Then, where are we? An extension, I presume, with a pre-Xmas election....& back to waiting to see what the voters make of the delay....and what Farage makes of it?

 

If he gets a deal done, I assume he wins the election, but it's still a big "if".....and everyone expected Churchill to win the 1945 election on the back of war victory, didn't they? 

At least Corbyn would have a known platform to campaign on. Possibly the ones most out on a limb would be the Lib Dems....what the hell would they campaign on, as "the party of Remain"?! 

 

Where's @Kopfkino to offer expertise (hope all's well, mate - haven't heard from you in ages?)

 

[bovril]

Interesting analysis on Johnson's Brexit vs May's, by FT economics editor.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

IMF predicts UK to grow faster than Germany and France in 2020.

 

 

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50044659

 

Not brilliant, depending on your point of view, of course.

[Guest MattP]

10 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

They'll have to rename the "surrender bill" if he ends up agreeing a deal with the EU but has to request an extension to get it signed off by the EU27, UK parliament, EU parliament etc. 

 

I'm still dubious that will happen, though. Earlier today they were still saying that no legal text had even been presented.

Plus, if the rumours are true, it sounds as if Boris is making major concessions and accepting an effective border in the Irish Sea. I'm suspicious at the lack of protest from the DUP so far. Will they really accept anything like that? 

I can see why the ERG would, as getting Brexit is their dominant aim, but the dominant aim of the DUP is not to see the union diluted, surely? DUP votes might be superflous, but might not - and their silence is odd....

 

The Blame Game outcome is still a runner for me: both UK and EU have carefully given the public impression that they're working for a deal, then everything collapses at the last minute, EU blames UK, Boris blames EU (or maybe even uses DUP objections) & then blames Parliament for forcing him into the "surrender extension" as a preliminary to a People v. Parliament/EU election, a 5-year majority & possibly a free run to No Deal in Jan/Feb or whenever.

 

If my cynicism is unjustified and he does agree a deal with the EU, I have genuinely mixed feelings about that. My first reaction to a deal avoiding potential problems in Ireland via a border in the Irish Sea was positive. But then, if an EU-UK deal is agreed and gets through parliament, there's the little matter of Johnson potentially winning a landslide on the back of that success, and having 5 years of unfettered power to establish Singapore-on-Thames or whatever other right-wing projects his party wants (always assuming his personal motivation is narcissism & power for its own sake).

 

Because, as things stand, nothing much is firmly agreed on the protection of employment/social/environmental rights, is it? Admittedly, there'd be sod all chance of a FTA with the EU if it is clear that he wants to have a bonfire of regulations and a race to the bottom on standards & rights to undercut the EU.....but maybe the Tories would opt for that and not bother about a FTA?

 

It's that risk that makes me wonder if you're over-estimating the number of Labour MPs (20) willing to support a deal that doesn't protect such rights? The likes of Kinnock and Nandy clearly want to vote for a deal but have repeatedly stressed the importance of such protection of rights. All Labour MPs will also be under massive pressure not to support a deal that doesn't offer such protection - and will be clear that they could be paving the way for 5 years of majority right-wing Tory Govt.

 

On the other hand, if a UK-EU deal "resolves" the Irish problem for now - and the Govt agrees to protections of employment/social/environmental rights (Kinnock's aim), I'd find it hard to quibble with that.

 

But if Boris somehow does a deal with the EU by throwing the DUP under the bus and doesn't make such concessions on rights, he still might not persuade enough Labour MPs or Tory Remain rebels to win a vote in parliament. Then, where are we? An extension, I presume, with a pre-Xmas election....& back to waiting to see what the voters make of the delay....and what Farage makes of it?

 

If he gets a deal done, I assume he wins the election, but it's still a big "if".....and everyone expected Churchill to win the 1945 election on the back of war victory, didn't they? 

At least Corbyn would have a known platform to campaign on. Possibly the ones most out on a limb would be the Lib Dems....what the hell would they campaign on, as "the party of Remain"?! 

 

Where's @Kopfkino to offer expertise (hope all's well, mate - haven't heard from you in ages?)

I don't see how the DUP could accept that, unless there is some sort of strict time limit on it.

Sounds like he's meeting the 1922 committee tonight - so we'll be learning a lot by the reaction of that.

[Guest MattP]

No idea what Boris has got, but the hard Remainers are clearly desperate if they are now going to Brussels to try and stop whatever it is.

 

 

[Wymsey]

There's a Brexit debate/discussion tonight at 21:00, Jeremy Vine presenting, on Channel 5.

[Facecloth]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

No idea what Boris has got, but the hard Remainers are clearly desperate if they are now going to Brussels to try and stop whatever it is.

 

 

Piss up with the lads?

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Facecloth said:

Piss up with the lads?

I think I'd rather join Jihadi John and the Beatles in Syria.

[Bobby Hundreds]

5 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Piss up with the lads?

Begs the question, which 3 politicians would you go on the lash with? I'd plump for Ken Clarke, Dennis Skinner and Liz Kendall, just in case like. 

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Begs the question, which 3 politicians would you go on the lash with? I'd plump for Ken Clarke, Dennis Skinner and Liz Kendall, just in case like. 

Nigel Farage, Jeffery Archer and probably John Prescott.