FT General Election Poll 2019

[Guest MattP]

[leicsmac]

32 minutes ago, MattP said:

Very fair point. Probably the biggest flaw in democracy is it can lead to this.

 

Shout out to the Green party as well for managing to double the amount Labour are promising, hilarious stuff from that dippy bird this morning on Ridge. 

I'm thinking there's bigger flaws in democracy than this one specifically...but if you're talking about populist lies that appeal to a crowd for the sake of votes and totally disregard the future, then I'm totally with you.

[Alf Bentley]

Despite not liking him and slagging him yesterday, I thought Corbyn was pretty sure-footed in a tough interview with Marr.

 

Whatever you think of him or his policy platform, he often shows a good command of detail. There's a distinct chance that Johnson could come unstuck against that when they do joint debates, if the interviewers are any good.

It might not matter if people have made up their mind to "get Brexit done" () or if Johnson manages to sidetrack and bluster charismatically......but "detail" tends to be a weak point for the blond bombshell.

 

I'm not sure that Corbyn's neutral stance on Labour's proposed Brexit referendum will work. Logically, it's a reasonable stance - but voters are used to leaders giving "firm leadership" (even if it's wrong leadership), not saying "I'll wait to see the terms negotiated" or "the people will decide". He did have an answer to the question about his main sidekicks (McDonnell, Thornberry, Abbott) supporting Remain - implying some of the negotiating team would be Labour Leavers.

 

He seemed to close down the IndyRef2 vulnerability quite well - firmly ruling out a Scottish referendum in the first couple of years, in favour of public investment in Scotland, but dangling a mention of the 2021 Scottish elections....implying that if the SNP won a majority in those, a 2nd referendum could be agreed. A firm response to the Tory charge of "2 referendums within a year" but one that could be used to get the SNP to support a minority Labour Govt for the first couple of years, if the polls shift or are wrong?

 

His stance on Trident (SNP demanding its removal from Scotland) was amusing, looking back to the controversy over Labour's 1983 policy on unilateral nuclear disarmament. Corbyn basically argued the multilateralist stance of the 1983 moderates - that British nukes would be discussed along with everyone else's nukes at non-proliferation negotiations etc. Someone has made a concerted attempt to limit the opportunities for the Tories to attack Labour policies....

 

Labour is obviously vulnerable to the charge that they're making unfeasible spending promises generally. But the fact that the Tories are doing likewise (to a lesser extent, but much more than usual) helps them....and debating other issues helps them avoid the "get Brexit done" message dominating everything. Ultimately, it will come down to trust on economic/spending policies. People who instinctively don't trust Labour on tax/spend or don't trust Corbyn personally won't be won over by spending promises - but some of those in despair at austerity might be, or young people daunted at the tight finances they face. He also had a good answer on the policy for free dental check-ups - saves money long-term as people don't end up needing expensive treatment or clogging up A&E.

 

On a personal level, he wasn't as annoying as he sometimes is....but I wish he'd cut out the prissy "if you'll kindly let me finish" retorts, general prissiness & naff jokes about Marr's teeth. He'd do well to present a sensible, grey, competent image, particularly as it contrasts with the "raving extremist" image presented by his opponents. It's one he could carry off, I think, as he does have a usefully nerdish command of policy detail....Boris lacks that, so has to resort to flowery rhetoric & bluster. Could be that voters will want a bit more gravitas than that and that good interviewers will find Boris easier to fillet than Corbyn....

[Guest Bob Hazels shorts]

The labour front bench headed by Corbyn is the worst in living memory and offers no really opposition or positive alternative. 

 

Old school socialism died years ago, the last Labour Prime Minister was more Tory than Thatcher

 

Their only hope is appealing to the masses who are dependent on the state through employment, obscene public sector pensions etc, and enough extremist, the gullible and uneducated. 

 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

34 minutes ago, MattP said:

The Lib Dems polling is quite bizarre - seems to be dropping nationally but doing very well in certain seats.

 

It's starting to look like the Tory vote will be around 40% - which will surely be enough to give them the majority barring something strange happening.

 

Polls suggest the Tories are heading for a majority currently, but if the Con-Lab tightens a bit that could yet change.

 

It's the gap - and regional disparities/tactical voting - that will matter more than national voting percentages, I think.

 

After all, the Tories won 42.4% of the vote in 2017.....and didn't get a majority. 

Plus, at least one poll had them 10% ahead the day before the 2017 election, never mind 4 weeks before.

[Nick]

I sometimes wonder in this thread if the political debate would be raised if contributors to the thread were to attempt to focus the narratives of their posts make positive statements about the party or political objectives they support rather than negative comments about the party or politics they do not?

 

We spend so much time on here demonising and slandering with hateful intent (both left and right) I wonder if we’d all learn more or at least stand a chance of being convinced to consider differing positions on issues.

 

I appreciate this would be difficult and I’m not suggesting in any way that discourse and debate shouldn’t occur, just removing the slander and the propagandistic crap from bias sources (something I’m really guilty of) which only serves to smugly inflame.

 

I just think I know much more in general about what contributors hate, rather than what they support. I’d love to get rid of the spin, especially from a more centrist perspective though I appreciate the two main parties right now are arguably at polar opposites.

 

Just a Sunday morning ramble after catching up on the last few pages!

 

 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

As per usual I’ll watch it for a week, start to get bored if the camp all get along and then watch it intermittently till the end, it’s a trial in itself watching it every night, I want arguments and little cliques developing as it makes it more interesting.

[Izzy]

2 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

As per usual I’ll watch it for a week, start to get bored if the camp all get along and then watch it intermittently till the end, it’s a trial in itself watching it every night, I want arguments and little cliques developing as it makes it more interesting.

I'm a Politician, Get me out of here!!

[SouthStandUpperTier]

1 minute ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

As per usual I’ll watch it for a week, start to get bored if the camp all get along and then watch it intermittently till the end, it’s a trial in itself watching it every night, I want arguments and little cliques developing as it makes it more interesting.

I think you're talking about I'm A Celeb, but it equally applies to any politics thread on FoxesTalk.

[lgfualol]

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Polls suggest the Tories are heading for a majority currently, but if the Con-Lab tightens a bit that could yet change.

 

It's the gap - and regional disparities/tactical voting - that will matter more than national voting percentages, I think.

 

After all, the Tories won 42.4% of the vote in 2017.....and didn't get a majority. 

Plus, at least one poll had them 10% ahead the day before the 2017 election, never mind 4 weeks before.

If the Tories get 40% Labour need at least 35% though to stop a majority even with regional variations - that looks a long way off at the minute and the public know a lot more now about Jeremy Corbyn than they did in 2017.

 

Leave voters can't really vote Labour anymore given electing them will stop Brexit with his rigged referendum so he needs to sweep up the Lib Dem/Green vote to stand a chance.

[urban.spaceman]

Don't you ****ing dare touch Leicester City Jez.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

If the Tories get 40% Labour need at least 35% though to stop a majority even with regional variations - that looks a long way off at the minute and the public know a lot more now about Jeremy Corbyn than they did in 2017.

 

Leave voters can't really vote Labour anymore given electing them will stop Brexit with his rigged referendum so he needs to sweep up the Lib Dem/Green vote to stand a chance.

 

I'd pretty much agree with what you say about 40%-35%, though most polls have Labour around 28-30%, so that's not impossible with almost 4 weeks left.

 

I take your point about Corbyn - and don't see him getting the same mass influx of youth votes this time. On the other hand, tactical voting due to Brexit will be much greater this time.

 

Voters for whom Brexit is THE issue and who accept your definition of Brexit as a Boris/No Deal Hard Brexit won't vote Labour, I'm sure, but were never likely to.

There are other Leave voters for whom Brexit isn't the only/main issue and/or who'd be happy with a compromise Brexit or getting it sorted via a referendum.

 

I think you're mistakenly assuming that every Leave voter shares (a) your view of Brexit as THE priority; (b) your belief in a Hard Brexit.

Actually, I think boredom & frustration could be more harmful to the Labour cause. The "get Brexit done" and "let's get it over with" line could cut through with voters sick of hearing the B-word, even though it's massively dishonest, because Brexit won't be "done", only the introductory phase will be done, Brexit negotiations and/or consequences will be ongoing for years to come.... 

[Guest MattP]

16 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Voters for whom Brexit is THE issue and who accept your definition of Brexit as a Boris/No Deal Hard Brexit won't vote Labour, I'm sure, but were never likely to.

There are other Leave voters for whom Brexit isn't the only/main issue and/or who'd be happy with a compromise Brexit or getting it sorted via a referendum.

 

I think you're mistakenly assuming that every Leave voter shares (a) your view of Brexit as THE priority; (b) your belief in a Hard Brexit.

Actually, I think boredom & frustration could be more harmful to the Labour cause. The "get Brexit done" and "let's get it over with" line could cut through with voters sick of hearing the B-word, even though it's massively dishonest, because Brexit won't be "done", only the introductory phase will be done, Brexit negotiations and/or consequences will be ongoing for years to come.... 

I don't believe in a hard/no deal Brexit - I think the deal is fine. I just thought the law should have been applied on the original two years after Article 50 was invoked.

 

It's all irrelevant anyway as Labour winning a majority - the only chance Corbyn has of being PM is if the SNP or Lib Dems prop him up.

[Guest MattP]

21 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Don't you ****ing dare touch Leicester City Jez.

 

 

We are a success story - of course Corbyn will try and either shut it down or take completely change it.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

44 minutes ago, SouthStandUpperTier said:

I think you're talking about I'm A Celeb, but it equally applies to any politics thread on FoxesTalk.

🙈 how have I done that? 

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

I don't believe in a hard/no deal Brexit - I think the deal is fine. I just thought the law should have been applied on the original two years after Article 50 was invoked.

 

It's all irrelevant anyway as Labour winning a majority - the only chance Corbyn has of being PM is if the SNP or Lib Dems prop him up.

 

I see the Boris deal as leading to a distant, frosty EU-UK relationship with a lot of trade friction & economic/political damage - a Hard Brexit (out of SM & CU, too). We'll have to agree to disagree on that.

 

I agree with your second point, though it's also still possible that the Tories might need propping up (by Lab Leave MPs on Brexit? Reconciliation with DUP? Unlikely deal with LDs or SNP?).

As you said, the maths will be crucial as regards numbers of MPs by party - and even by Leave/Remain stance) if the Tories don't get a clear majority (even a tiny majority could be awkward).

[Heathrow fox]

1 hour ago, lgfualol said:

Quality 😂

[SouthStandUpperTier]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Don't you ****ing dare touch Leicester City Jez.

 

 

Having read FoxesTalk for many years, I would absolutely fear for future of Leicester City if our fans were put in charge.

[Alf Bentley]

Jennifer Arcuri is back....  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50450167

 

"During [an] interview to be aired later, Ms Arcuri addressed the now prime minister directly, saying: "I've been nothing but loyal, faithful, supportive, and a true confidante of yours. "I've kept your secrets, and I've been your friend.

"And I don't understand why you've blocked me and ignored me as if I was some fleeting one-night stand or some girl that you picked up at a bar because I wasn't - and you know that.

"And I'm terribly heartbroken by the way that you have cast me aside like I am some gremlin." 

 

Anyone know what's happening with the investigations into whether Boris used his public position to give her inappropriate commercial opportunities?

 

That's the important bit, amusing as the sleaze about the roaming member of the Member for Uxbridge might be....

[urban.spaceman]

9 minutes ago, SouthStandUpperTier said:

Having read FoxesTalk for many years, I would absolutely fear for future of Leicester City if our fans were put in charge.

Put @StriderHiryu in charge of tactics, @Izzy as club chaplain, @UpTheLeagueFox in charge of LCFCTV, @SheppyFox in charge of transfers with me to keep him grounded, and@Thracian in charge of inclusivity. 

 

Sorted.

[twoleftfeet]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Don't you ****ing dare touch Leicester City Jez.

 

 

Is this not just in favour of the big six. Bigger fan base bigger revenues. Are fans the best people to run a club. You just need to see some of the remarks on here after we sold Maguire saying we had to spend £50 million plus on a replacement . Can any one not want to see Robbie, Troopz and DT take the reigns at arsenal not a move you would wish any club. 

[Jimothy]

31 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Put @StriderHiryu in charge of tactics, @Izzy as club chaplain, @UpTheLeagueFox in charge of LCFCTV, @SheppyFox in charge of transfers with me to keep him grounded, and@Thracian in charge of inclusivity. 

 

Sorted.

Izzy is clearly the manager, after his exploits with his youth team, and his motivational speaking. StriderHiryu with his tactical knowledge would be his first team coach.

[RobHawk]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Jennifer Arcuri is back....  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50450167

 

"During [an] interview to be aired later, Ms Arcuri addressed the now prime minister directly, saying: "I've been nothing but loyal, faithful, supportive, and a true confidante of yours. "I've kept your secrets, and I've been your friend.

"And I don't understand why you've blocked me and ignored me as if I was some fleeting one-night stand or some girl that you picked up at a bar because I wasn't - and you know that.

"And I'm terribly heartbroken by the way that you have cast me aside like I am some gremlin." 

 

Anyone know what's happening with the investigations into whether Boris used his public position to give her inappropriate commercial opportunities?

 

That's the important bit, amusing as the sleaze about the roaming member of the Member for Uxbridge might be....

I'm sure I read it had been put on the back burner until after the election. 

 

Along with that Russia report! 

[Lionator]

3 hours ago, Swan Lesta said:

I sometimes wonder in this thread if the political debate would be raised if contributors to the thread were to attempt to focus the narratives of their posts make positive statements about the party or political objectives they support rather than negative comments about the party or politics they do not?

 

We spend so much time on here demonising and slandering with hateful intent (both left and right) I wonder if we’d all learn more or at least stand a chance of being convinced to consider differing positions on issues.

 

I appreciate this would be difficult and I’m not suggesting in any way that discourse and debate shouldn’t occur, just removing the slander and the propagandistic crap from bias sources (something I’m really guilty of) which only serves to smugly inflame.

 

I just think I know much more in general about what contributors hate, rather than what they support. I’d love to get rid of the spin, especially from a more centrist perspective though I appreciate the two main parties right now are arguably at polar opposites.

 

Just a Sunday morning ramble after catching up on the last few pages!

 

 

It's because the Tories have nothing aside from "we're not Jezza".

 

Corbyn tries to be positive but their policies do come across as a bit too good to be true and people are sceptical.

 

One thing that's shocked me is that 50% of the 'working class' are going to be voting Tory. I find it fascinating as the working class are the one's most affected by Tory policy. Is it a case of Labour just not getting their message across to this population? Is it the press? Who knows?