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simFox

Corona Virus

By simFox, in General Chat

Mark
Message added by Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Now is the time for Boris to do a Trump (figuratively speaking), and slap 50% import taxes on goods from china, Singapore and Korea so there's a level playing field. We can't compete with a bowl of rice.

...really?

 

Wasn't aware those two places were backwards authoritarian manufacturing hellholes - interesting!

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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted
Just now, stix said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

Is this information/website a reliable source of information? If so, why are the UK recovery numbers so low in comparison to countries around us?

Seems we don`t really publish recovery numbers, think that is what they said earlier on the BBC News :dunno:

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BKLFox

BKLFox

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Izzy said:

The way things are carrying on we’ll end up with a civil war.

On one side the ‘good guys’ who follow the rules versus the ‘bad guys’ on the other side who think they can do as they please. 
A bit like Star Wars but without the light sabres.

FT can get a bit like that at times although More like Spaceballs with the lightsabres, with those that read the Guardian & the Mail & those that don't :blush:

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 09/04/2020 at 18:26, Jon the Hat said:

FFS no one in January had a clue - China was lying to the WHO, and if you read the minutes from the Government advisory committees they had no reason to make any such changes until well into Feb.

What does it matter what China were saying? They lie, the USA lie, the UK lie, everyone lies. What they actually do is far more important, and by the end of January they had shut down a city of  11 million people and had started building 2 emergency hospitals. That much info was available to anyone with an internet connection. To great powers like the USA and by extension, the Uk, with a trillion dollar spy network, you’d think they’d know a bit more, so to claim ignorance is disingenuous at best.

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Lionator said:

So the eagerly anticipated ‘Heinsberg study’ results have been released this morning. Heinsberg is the ‘German Wuhan’ where they have a huge outbreak of cases in late February. The key findings have been: 

 

- Unsurprisingly they’ve found that viral exposure can predict severity. Hence why there’s a higher death rate in healthcare staff. PPE should be the number 1 priority for everyone. 
 

- The estimated infection fatality rate is 0.3% which would mean it is 3x deadlier than the flu.

 

- 15% of their study population (1500) have antibodies, where they’d only estimated for there to be 5% indicating its way more widespread and infectious than estimated.

 

- They conclude that herd immunity may be the best way out of this, however the vulnerable would still have to be shielded as much as possible. 
 

Just to note this is absolutely the best and most detailed data we have so far on Covid-19. 

Interesting.

 

I guess a lot of people suspected the number of virus particles you get determines the severity of the cases seeing as how many doctors, nurses and care workers get badly ill even if they're young and fit - and how high the number of drs in Italy were as a percentage of the serious cases. they've probably been infected by multiple people at the same time.

Edited by Sampson
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yorkie1999

yorkie1999

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

What does it matter what China were saying? They lie, the USA lie, the UK lie, everyone lies. What they actually do is far more important, and by the end of January they had shut down a city of  11 million people and had started building 2 emergency hospitals. That much info was available to anyone with an internet connection. To great powers like the USA with a trillion dollar spy network you’d think they’d know a bit more, so to claim ignorance is disingenuous best.

I think the powers that be thought the UK and the US were just as they were in WW2, i.e. safe from it because they weren't connected to the european/asian continents. What they failed to realise was that we weren't flying the Germans in during the second world war.

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

No one has suggest at any point that this has anything like a 10% mortality rate.  That comes for very incorectly comparing deaths with a small proportion of total infections who are detected through testing.

 

Say 70% have no symptoms - not tested at all (except maybe in South Korea)

15% suffer at home with minor symptoms

15% enter the hospital system

of these maybe half are tested and found to have COVI-19

Vs those stats 10% die - so you are actually showing 10% of 7.5% = 0.75% death rate, which while nasty is a very long way from 10%.

 

 

Yes, but you are ignoring the multiplier effect of a totally overwhelmed Health Service, and the collateral damage of the usual caseload that would not have have received appropriate treatment.

 

Also, something that rarely gets mentioned is that for more serious cases, survival often leaves the victim with serious ongoing health problems.

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Kopfkino

Kopfkino

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I've no problem with the criticism of the WHO, a lot of it is most valid - my issue is, as you say, with Trump blatantly using it and other avenues as a very convenient scapegoat to deflect from his own considerable failings on the matter. It is possible - and possibly even correct - to hold the point of view that the WHO haven't done even close to everything they needed to do and recognise a malaproper con artist who happens to be in the position of the most powerful position on Earth making excuses for his own incompetence and point that out along with the hope that someone holds him to account for it one day.

 

Yes, whataboutery isn't something that should be used in international diplomatic conversation and tbh I'm somewhat surprised that when it comes to this as well as people using China as the only malefactor you seem willing to give it a pass.

 

Sadly I agree with the idea that international co-operation is going to be set back a lot from this - exactly at the time when it may well be most needed.

 

 

I don't let it pass, I'm just yet to see many posts say that this is all China's fault and no other questions can be asked because I also don't expect everyone to caveat all their points so that whenever China comes up that always has to be followed up with something about other governments dropping a bollock as that would be most unreasonable. Just as you didn't say that the WHO deserved criticism in your post, doesn't mean you don't believe it. 

 

And now when such a situation arises I'll leave it to the resident CCP rep to wave his fists about the west.

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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted

Wonder if they normalize these daily numbers so a better statistical analysis can be done on the trends the virus is following?

As @MattFox said, the numbers from yesterday, will provide little value to tracking of trends due that wide spectrum of inclusion.

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, MattFox said:

Of the 700+ deaths reported today only 140 actually occurred yesterday.

 

Shows why reading into small increases and decreases on a daily basis is pointless

And there will be many more than 140 deaths that occurred yesterday, which are not included in the 700 and will probably appear spread over the next week. So the deaths reported today are on average a picture from a few days ago. 

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dahnsouff said:

Wonder if they normalize these daily numbers so a better statistical analysis can be done on the trends the virus is following?

As @MattFox said, the numbers from yesterday, will provide little value to tracking of trends due that wide spectrum of inclusion.

They do retrospective analysis on when the deaths actually occurred. Which apparently makes the numbers a lot worse. 

 

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

I don't let it pass, I'm just yet to see many posts say that this is all China's fault and no other questions can be asked because I also don't expect everyone to caveat all their points so that whenever China comes up that always has to be followed up with something about other governments dropping a bollock as that would be most unreasonable. Just as you didn't say that the WHO deserved criticism in your post, doesn't mean you don't believe it. 

 

And now when such a situation arises I'll leave it to the resident CCP rep to wave his fists about the west.

Perhaps I'm unreasonable when I expect a fair amount qualification of remarks and some nuance in the discussion then, and that includes myself as I know that I don't use qualifiers as often as I should - the example you pointed out is one of many.

 

Is there someone on here who seriously stans for the CCP? Good grief. There is clearly no accounting for taste.

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yorkie1999

yorkie1999

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, brucey said:

And there will be many more than 140 deaths that occurred yesterday, which are not included in the 700 and will probably appear spread over the next week. So the deaths reported today are on average a picture from a few days ago. 

What's the point of releasing data that's incorrect, they may as well just make it up, wait till the end of the week and release the deaths for the past week. One thing i can't believe is there has only been 135 recoveries reported and yet in order to give a bit of hope to us all, the main question that needs answering is if i end up in hospital, what are my chances of surviving. According to that previous link and looking at it from a laymans eye where you'd look at how many have died and how many have recovered, 7000 people have died and 135 have recovered, there's not much chance of surviving.  

Edited by yorkie1999
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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted

Maybe the job of the government is not just to manage the outbreak, but to manage the expectations to the outbreak....just saying  

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

What's the point of releasing data that's incorrect, they may as well just make it up, wait till the end of the week and release the deaths for the past week. One thing i can't believe is there has only been 140 recoveries reported and yet in order to give a bit of hope to us all, the main question that needs answering is if i end up in hospital, what are my chances of surviving. According to that previous link and looking at it from a laymans eye where you'd look at how many have died and how many have recovered, 7000 people have died and 135 have recovered, there's not much chance of surviving.  

Because it's what every other country is doing, can you imagine the uproar if we refused to release numbers until a week later? The overall trend is more informative than actual numbers, even if it is on a delay. Deaths lag behind new infections by 2-4 weeks anyway so an extra week really doesn't make much difference. 

 

Perhaps the UK recoveries figure should be removed entirely from the worldometer site in the absence of updated data. If it helps, my hospital does report the number of recovered cases locally, which currently stands at approximately double the number of deaths. That ratio has and will continue to increase. 

 

Edited by brucey
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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Perhaps I'm unreasonable when I expect a fair amount qualification of remarks and some nuance in the discussion then, and that includes myself as I know that I don't use qualifiers as often as I should - the example you pointed out is one of many.

 

Is there someone on here who seriously stans for the CCP? Good grief. There is clearly no accounting for taste.

Do you actually work for a Chinese company/department Mac?

 

Obviously I dont mean the government, but you have a personal stake in the country continuing to be a global superpower?

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