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Corona Virus

Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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Cytokine storms are the reason the 1918 flu pandemic killed so many people, particularly healthy people with good immune systems.

 

However, it seems that firstly this virus isn't causing such storms regularly given that what we know about the death toll indicates it's hitting the old and infirm hardest, and while the world is a much smaller place than it was then we're also better at both containment and understanding, so while there likely will be many more cases and given my own location I'm keeping a rather close eye on the whole thing, I expect it will less devastating than the H1N1 flu pandemic about 10 years ago and possibly less so than the SARS epidemic.

 

The gene sequence has also been isolated relatively quickly which will help with efforts to synthesise a vaccine.

Edited by leicsmac
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25 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Cytokine storms are the reason the 1918 flu pandemic killed so many people, particularly healthy people with good immune systems.

 

However, it seems that firstly this virus isn't causing such storms regularly given that what we know about the death toll indicates it's hitting the old and infirm hardest, and while the world is a much smaller place than it was then we're also better and both containment and understanding, so while there likely will be many more cases and given my own location I'm keeping a rather close eye on the whole thing, I expect it will less devastating than the H1N1 flu pandemic about 10 years ago and possibly less so than the SARS epidemic.

 

The gene sequence has also been isolated relatively quickly which will help with efforts to synthesise a vaccine.

I'm taking a lot of whats being said with a pinch of salt. Haven't directly been told who is dying from the virus, with it most likely being the elderly, young and chronically ill. They still don't know a huge amount about it, transmission is an iffy one given they're unsure if its animal to human or solely human to human. 

 

Yes they've got the genetic sequence but it could be mutating quickly so that may change. Hopefully this is dealt with quickly.

 

Important to note that these numbers aren't as much as the seasonal flu we get annually, yet we don't panic on that.

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Make no mistake this is controllable 

 

mass media hysteria for click bate 

 

SARS and Bird Flu where much bigger than this and were contained 

 

the vaccine is being worked on already 

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It's my understanding that the incubation period is weeks, so many of the people infected are hard to detect, SARS was much quicker, so easier to quarantine. Also, this virus is mutating quickly.

 

The vaccine is said to be 6 months away.

 

I agree on the old and infirm, but the deaths linked to immune response leaves more people susceptible. 

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1 hour ago, UniFox21 said:

I'm taking a lot of whats being said with a pinch of salt. Haven't directly been told who is dying from the virus, with it most likely being the elderly, young and chronically ill. They still don't know a huge amount about it, transmission is an iffy one given they're unsure if its animal to human or solely human to human. 

 

Yes they've got the genetic sequence but it could be mutating quickly so that may change. Hopefully this is dealt with quickly.

 

Important to note that these numbers aren't as much as the seasonal flu we get annually, yet we don't panic on that.

 

By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients were identified as laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan. 20 [49%]) of the 2019-nCoV-infected patients were aged 25–49 years, and 14 (34%) were aged 50–64 years (figure 1A). The median age of the patients was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0; table 1). In our cohort of the first 41 patients as of Jan 2, no children or adolescents were infected. Of the 41 patients, 13 (32%) were admitted to the ICU because they required high-flow nasal cannula or higher-level oxygen support measures to correct hypoxaemia. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%]); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]).

 

27 (66%) patients had direct exposure to Huanan seafood market (figure 1B). Market exposure was similar between the patients with ICU care (nine [69%]) and those with non-ICU care (18 [64%]). The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases. The first fatal case, who had continuous exposure to the market, was admitted to hospital because of a 7-day history of fever, cough, and dyspnoea. 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalised in the isolation ward.

 

The most common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38; table 1). More than half of patients (22 [55%] of 40) developed dyspnoea. The median duration from illness onset to dyspnoea was 8·0 days (IQR 5·0–13·0). The median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital admission was 7·0 days (4·0-8·0), to shortness of breath was 8·0 days (5·0–13·0), to ARDS was 9·0 days (8·0–14·0), to mechanical ventilation was 10·5 days (7·0–14·0), and to ICU admission was 10·5 days 
(8·0–17·0; figure 2).
 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

Edited by simFox

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I read something yesterday about the mortality rates of flu, SARS, MERS and the corinavirus (and it's obviously early days for the coronavirus, so I don't intend to make comparisons) but I must admit that my reaction was similar to that of @LinekersLugs above.

 

It is frightening to think though; could this be the start of something that sweeps the planet, as prophesied in 'The Survivors'! (The 1975 one obviously, the later one was rubbish!)  

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I mean the reason it feels different is its the first really infectious outbreak in the age of social media meaning you see, and are aware of, far more than previously. SARS may well have seemed worse had social media been around. 

 

But its a concern for sure. Who knows what's really going on give we're relying on the Chinese for information. Also now it seems it can spread during incubation, and that can be upto 14 days, the slow response in the first place likely means the situation is worse than we already know. 

 

Hopefully like SARS it will mutate to something less serious and we'll get away with it. 

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What's pissing me off is they are trying to contain it by stopping people coming in and out of the country, and then you have the front line media who are reporting this in hospitals and public places. Do they not count when it comes to spreading? Do they not get infected? Do they do their reporting and jump straight on a plane home? I don't know nothing about this kind of stuff but why is this happening? 

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40 minutes ago, SeCrEt FoX said:

What's pissing me off is they are trying to contain it by stopping people coming in and out of the country, and then you have the front line media who are reporting this in hospitals and public places. Do they not count when it comes to spreading? Do they not get infected? Do they do their reporting and jump straight on a plane home? I don't know nothing about this kind of stuff but why is this happening? 

Presumably they’re freelance and live there or have been in before the lockdown.

Edited by Strokes

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Just now, LinekersLugs said:

Sean from Enderby broke that story :ph34r:

Oh crap, he’s never wrong!

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The black death plague killed 60% of europe in the 14th century and was spread by fleas from rats, I do not think it is a coincedence that the corona virus has started just as the Chinese new year of the rat has begun.

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3 minutes ago, I am Rod Hull said:

Does anyone know a local (South Derbyshire) Chinese takeway that delivers bat soup? 

Not sure but I’ve just been in a Chinese super market on Welford road and got this

E8812579-456C-44F8-809E-2796E17B95AD.jpeg

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3 hours ago, simFox said:

 

The vaccine is said to be 6 months away.

 

Around 16 weeks - but then it will need a longer period of testing.

 

PHE will already have assays and diagnostic tests in place. It may well be that is no more virulent than H1N1 a decade ago which was quickly controlled. 

 

3 hours ago, mabrah said:

It is frightening to think though; could this be the start of something that sweeps the planet, as prophesied in 'The Survivors'! (The 1975 one obviously, the later one was rubbish!)  

I thought I was the only one that remembered this. I recall being terrified as a kid by the bloke with rabies. 

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6 hours ago, simFox said:

Surprised there is no thread on this. This feels different somehow, I don't think we'll all die, but I think a lot of people will.

 

 

Coincidence?

 

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

 

axVMIi9I__01.png

I agree.For some reason I feel very uneasy about this.The media seem to reporting it slightly differently.

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46 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said:

I agree.For some reason I feel very uneasy about this.The media seem to reporting it slightly differently.

It's pure hysteria. And whoever makes the vaccine will end up cashing in as the more people who are scared = the more people who get vaccinated = more money.

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2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

It's pure hysteria. And whoever makes the vaccine will end up cashing in as the more people who are scared = the more people who get vaccinated = more money.

No I mean differently because the media aren’t being hysterical.

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14 day incubation, can be transmitted without symptoms.

 

It's already here.

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