Corona Virus

[potter3]

8 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

Which nation? Out of Interest. 

 

I think cultural differences to have an impact, for sure. As a free democratic nation the British don't take particularly well to being told what to do, probably less so that a lot of other nations. Culturally we have always had the attitude of we will do whatever we want, which shows. 

I'm going to guess South Korea

[Foxin_Mad]

1 hour ago, Dahnsouff said:

Yes, understand this. Uncertainty is the bugbear of all business, but what if they do not know? (I think they do not)

Would it help to have a best guess "return to work" date? (Honest question)

I am not a small business owner, I always work at home and do not go on site, so I have a completely different, uninformed! outlook on such scenarios

They must have a plan surely, of some kind? An end point, a route out. Even if becomes clear it is not achievable in time. I assume worst case is 3 months as that is how long all the financial support is there for. I would like start to plan for June reopening next month but who knows. 

 

It would help to have a return to work date - even if it was all manufacturing to restart and office staff work from home. Shops, bars, restaurants reopen with reduced capacity. Sport restarts behind closed doors. A gradual plan could work. Build capacity towards the summer months.  

 

My busiest time is later in the year toward Christmas, so if I can build stock, plan and market well. A very successfully latter part of the year, well planned could really help me, my staff and I think a lot of other businesses.. 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

58 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

David Lammy will be salivating over this article 

[Izzy]

1 minute ago, Foxin_Mad said:

They must have a plan surely, of some kind? An end point, a route out. Even if becomes clear it is not achievable in time. I assume worst case is 3 months as that is how long all the financial support is there for. I would like start to plan for June reopening next month but who knows. 

 

It would help to have a return to work date - even if it was all manufacturing to restart and office staff work from home. Shops, bars, restaurants reopen with reduced capacity. Sport restarts behind closed doors. A gradual plan could work. Build capacity towards the summer months.  

 

My busiest time is later in the year toward Christmas, so if I can build stock, plan and market well. A very successfully latter part of the year, well planned could really help me, my staff and I think a lot of other businesses.. 

I agree but I guess they don't want to raise expectations and then have to potentially lock down again if there's another spike.

 

If they gave us an end date and then a few days before had to reverse the decision, there'd be uproar. I imagine they'll just keep reviewing the situation every couple of weeks.

 

It's tough.

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, Foxin_Mad said:

They must have a plan surely, of some kind? An end point, a route out. Even if becomes clear it is not achievable in time. I assume worst case is 3 months as that is how long all the financial support is there for. I would like start to plan for June reopening next month but who knows. 

 

It would help to have a return to work date - even if it was all manufacturing to restart and office staff work from home. Shops, bars, restaurants reopen with reduced capacity. Sport restarts behind closed doors. A gradual plan could work. Build capacity towards the summer months.  

 

My busiest time is later in the year toward Christmas, so if I can build stock, plan and market well. A very successfully latter part of the year, well planned could really help me, my staff and I think a lot of other businesses.. 

Understand, but due to the many factors; When is the peak?  When we will see a sustained down turn in cases? When will people grow up and help everyone and stay home?

All these factors are bound to help bring a relaxation of lock down rules.

So in reality, the best the Government could do for a plan is something along the lines of "2 weeks after cases have fallen consistently"

Which in itself, does not offer any more useful data than now 

[Foxin_Mad]

1 minute ago, potter3 said:

I'm going to guess South Korea

 

A lot difference environment/weather wise I would say, whether that has an impact I don't know. 

 

Their testing/tracking has been significantly better, but I suspect being close to the source of a lot of these diseases makes you more prepared.

 

Until now Europe/UK/US has had minimal impact from these kind of things. I think with this the game has changed and future planning will be better. I also expect to see quite a few insurance companies selling pandemic insurance to business. 

[leicsmac]

21 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

I realise that the messenger makes a huge difference but let's not allow Trump's overtures and narcissism deflect from the feebleness and pointlessness of the WHO. It would have been useful if they had spent less time being China's rent boy. Of course, that's your argument about China chat deflecting from governments' poor response so I wouldn't expect you to at all.

 

The whole crisis sort of destroys the idea of international cooperation on much anytime soon. The WHO useless and sidelined, the EU incapable, EU member states putting themselves first, G7 and G20 absent and very little joined up international thinking from anywhere (even Central Banks haven't really managed it). A far cry from the financial crisis.

I've no problem with the criticism of the WHO, a lot of it is most valid - my issue is, as you say, with Trump blatantly using it and other avenues as a very convenient scapegoat to deflect from his own considerable failings on the matter. It is possible - and possibly even correct - to hold the point of view that the WHO haven't done even close to everything they needed to do and recognise a malaproper con artist who happens to be in the position of the most powerful position on Earth making excuses for his own incompetence and point that out along with the hope that someone holds him to account for it one day.

 

Yes, whataboutery isn't something that should be used in international diplomatic conversation and tbh I'm somewhat surprised that when it comes to this as well as people using China as the only malefactor you seem willing to give it a pass.

 

Sadly I agree with the idea that international co-operation is going to be set back a lot from this - exactly at the time when it may well be most needed.

 

 

11 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

Which nation? Out of Interest. 

 

I think cultural differences to have an impact, for sure. As a free democratic nation the British don't take particularly well to being told what to do, probably less so that a lot of other nations. Culturally we have always had the attitude of we will do whatever we want, which shows. 

 

2 minutes ago, potter3 said:

I'm going to guess South Korea

...correct.

 

Korea is a free democratic nation too with a penchant for million-man protests when their government does stuff they don't like (see 2016). I'm thinking that the preparation and cultural difference there are have had an effect, but does that tell the whole story?

[Foxin_Mad]

3 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I agree but I guess they don't want to raise expectations and then have to potentially lock down again if there's another spike.

 

If they gave us an end date and then a few days before had to reverse the decision, there'd be uproar. I imagine they'll just keep reviewing the situation every couple of weeks.

 

It's tough.

 

3 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Understand, but due to the many factors; When is the peak?  When we will see a sustained down turn in cases? When will people grow up and help everyone and stay home?

All these factors are bound to help bring a relaxation of lock down rules.

So in reality, the best the Government could do for a plan is something along the lines of "2 weeks after cases have fallen consistently"

Which in itself, does not offer any more useful data than now 

Yes I understand its difficult for all concerned. It might just help to have a bit of a forward plan, even if the goal moves at the 2 week reviews. 

 

I suppose they just want to get to a point where the NHS isn't overwhelmed and wont be overwhelmed.

[st albans fox]

EFL have told clubs that the earliest they are allowed to return to training is currently 16th may .......

 

I wonder if that’s a date given to them by govt as an indicator ............

[EastAnglianFox]

Usually about the time of the day somebody winds up @Facecloth

 

Who's gonna be first in 

 

(not making light of the numbers BTW) 

Edited 9 April 2020 by EastAnglianFox

[Dahnsouff]

4 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

Yes I understand its difficult for all concerned. It might just help to have a bit of a forward plan, even if the goal moves at the 2 week reviews. 

Agreed, operating on a two week window of review could at least provide some hope.

 

4 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

I suppose they just want to get to a point where the NHS isn't overwhelmed and wont be overwhelmed.

Yes, can you imagine the complete sh*tstorm if they get everyone back to work, only for this to be a major factor in a 2nd of infections

 

Edited 9 April 2020 by Dahnsouff

[Guest Markyblue]

1 minute ago, EastAnglianFox said:

Usually about the time of the day somebody winds up @Facecloth

 

Who's gonna be first in 

 

(not making light of the numbers BTW) 

Me deaths in England are down.

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, EastAnglianFox said:

Usually about the time of the day somebody winds up @Facecloth

 

Who's gonna be first in 

 

(not making light of the numbers BTW) 

Don't distract me .......I’m trawling the internet looking for the numbers ......... but now that marky says they’re down I’ve lost my motivation ...............

Edited 9 April 2020 by st albans fox

[Foxin_Mad]

37 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

 

 

The whole crisis sort of destroys the idea of international cooperation on much anytime soon. The WHO useless and sidelined, the EU incapable, EU member states putting themselves first, G7 and G20 absent and very little joined up international thinking from anywhere (even Central Banks haven't really managed it). A far cry from the financial crisis.

To this end, Brexit actually potentially puts Britain in quite a strong position being isolated already - if we do the right things. Now is the time to bring back our manufacturing/supply chain and majority of food production. Now is the time to use local environmentally sustainable business, now if the time for British people to buy British even if it costs more and for thousands of British people to join the work force to pick/pack/deliver our fantastic fruit and veg grown locally in this country. 

 

So far mostly the government I feel have done the right things based on the facts they are seeing, the same I feel with the BOE. 

 

The EU is in complete disarray and I find it hard to believe that relationships wont be strained there. 

[davieG]

2 hours ago, Foxin_Mad said:

People need to change their whole way of thinking. If the young are serious about the environment, we need to become more sustainable. The reduction in unnecessary travel is profound environmentally. Technology has a huge part to play. 

 

It might be economically better to buy junk from China but is it ethically and environmentally better? With China being the source of this and the cover ups - is it even economically better?

 

Is it more sustainable to buy something shipped half way round the world from a global conglomerate who pays not tax or by the same thing that costs more from steve down the road, who employs local people, paying a fair wage, pays tax, sources components from other local businesses. Globalisation is broken, quite frankly its morally, socially, well-being, bankrupt. This whole pandemic has showed its flaws. 

 

I am quite sure we will go back to our old ways again. 

I'm not saying it's good just that that is how it is. If people have to pay more they'll want more pay prices will go up and wages will need to follow. I'm not an economist but the world is set up to be materialistic and profit driven. If you can persuade people to give up their lifestyle and live as or near to that of the Buddhist in Nepal we could probably do it.

 

 

[ealingfox]

Shouldn't they have been patrolling for people flouting the social distancing rules instead of partying?!?

[yorkie1999]

3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

FFS no one in January had a clue - China was lying to the WHO, and if you read the minutes from the Government advisory committees they had no reason to make any such changes until well into Feb.

Someone did, this thread started in January.

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, Foxin_Mad said:

To this end, Brexit actually potentially puts Britain in quite a strong position being isolated already - if we do the right things. Now is the time to bring back our manufacturing/supply chain and majority of food production. Now is the time to use local environmentally sustainable business, now if the time for British people to buy British even if it costs more and for thousands of British people to join the work force to pick/pack/deliver our fantastic fruit and veg grown locally in this country. 

 

So far mostly the government I feel have done the right things based on the facts they are seeing, the same I feel with the BOE. 

 

The EU is in complete disarray and I find it hard to believe that relationships wont be strained there. 

People will have less money, there will be higher unemployment  ......... how does that work ? 
 

and many industries have ‘de machined’ ...... there will be no appetite to rebuild that infrastructure  

[Foxin_Mad]

2 minutes ago, davieG said:

I'm not saying it's good just that that is how it is. If people have to pay more they'll want more pay prices will go up and wages will need to follow. I'm not an economist but the world is set up to be materialistic and profit driven. If you can persuade people to give up their lifestyle and live as or near to that of the Buddhist in Nepal we could probably do it.

 

 

Yes I hear you completely. Its a shame I think people need to think more about what they do, especially if the environment really is a priority. 

 

We maybe don't need to change everything, but we certainly need much more balance. 

[Alf Bentley]

46 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

The whole crisis sort of destroys the idea of international cooperation on much anytime soon. The WHO useless and sidelined, the EU incapable, EU member states putting themselves first, G7 and G20 absent and very little joined up international thinking from anywhere (even Central Banks haven't really managed it). A far cry from the financial crisis.

 

You're quite right, Kopf. We need a knight in shining armour to show global leadership and lead the world out of this, just like in 2008......

 

 

 

[Chocolate Teapot]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

So the eagerly anticipated ‘Heinsberg study’ results have been released this morning. Heinsberg is the ‘German Wuhan’ where they have a huge outbreak of cases in late February. The key findings have been: 

 

- Unsurprisingly they’ve found that viral exposure can predict severity. Hence why there’s a higher death rate in healthcare staff. PPE should be the number 1 priority for everyone. 
 

- The estimated infection fatality rate is 0.3% which would mean it is 3x deadlier than the flu.

 

- 15% of their study population (1500) have antibodies, where they’d only estimated for there to be 5% indicating its way more widespread and infectious than estimated.

 

- They conclude that herd immunity may be the best way out of this, however the vulnerable would still have to be shielded as much as possible. 
 

Just to note this is absolutely the best and most detailed data we have so far on Covid-19. 

Fascinating - got a link?

[yorkie1999]

3 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

To this end, Brexit actually potentially puts Britain in quite a strong position being isolated already - if we do the right things. Now is the time to bring back our manufacturing/supply chain and majority of food production. Now is the time to use local environmentally sustainable business, now if the time for British people to buy British even if it costs more and for thousands of British people to join the work force to pick/pack/deliver our fantastic fruit and veg grown locally in this country. 

 

So far mostly the government I feel have done the right things based on the facts they are seeing, the same I feel with the BOE. 

 

The EU is in complete disarray and I find it hard to believe that relationships wont be strained there. 

Now is the time for Boris to do a Trump (figuratively speaking), and slap 50% import taxes on goods from china, Singapore and Korea so there's a level playing field. We can't compete with a bowl of rice.

[davieG]

3 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

Yes I hear you completely. Its a shame I think people need to think more about what they do, especially if the environment really is a priority. 

 

We maybe don't need to change everything, but we certainly need much more balance. 

In the late 60's and 70's we went from manufacturing to selling the machines and tools to manufacture parts as it became cheaper to buy from abroad. Now we don't even sell them the tools.

 

It's all about bespoke, added value and niche markets now for us.

[Guest Markyblue]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

So the eagerly anticipated ‘Heinsberg study’ results have been released this morning. Heinsberg is the ‘German Wuhan’ where they have a huge outbreak of cases in late February. The key findings have been: 

 

- Unsurprisingly they’ve found that viral exposure can predict severity. Hence why there’s a higher death rate in healthcare staff. PPE should be the number 1 priority for everyone. 
 

- The estimated infection fatality rate is 0.3% which would mean it is 3x deadlier than the flu.

 

- 15% of their study population (1500) have antibodies, where they’d only estimated for there to be 5% indicating its way more widespread and infectious than estimated.

 

- They conclude that herd immunity may be the best way out of this, however the vulnerable would still have to be shielded as much as possible. 
 

Just to note this is absolutely the best and most detailed data we have so far on Covid-19. 

Am i being over optimistic to think this report is encouraging. 

[Foxin_Mad]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

People will have less money, there will be higher unemployment  ......... how does that work ? 
 

and many industries have ‘de machined’ ...... there will be no appetite to rebuild that infrastructure  

The government are probably going to end up picking up the bill so we might as well make sure it comes back back and not out to the far east. 

 

There are some industries that are and can be successful here. Modern purpose built British factories can be some of the most efficient and productive in the world, producing the best wares. 

 

We also need to look at new emerging sectors, green energy, batteries, we can be a world leader. Some damn clever people and fantastic Universities. 

 

Part of the issue is belief and confidence, we can do it! We built 3 hospitals in 7 days! So anything is possible with the will. 

Edited 9 April 2020 by Foxin_Mad