Corona Virus

[bovril]

Just now, Foxin_Mad said:

I think the damage to jobs and as a result mental health and wellbeing will be far more damaging long term and probably cause a lot of lives to be lost over the next 5 years. 

I agree.

But I still think it would've been impossible for us to go down the Sweden route. People saw what was going on in Italy. 

[Jon the Hat]

Just now, Foxin_Mad said:

Maybe certain areas, I can understand but nationally I am not so sure.

 

Really international flights/travel should have been halted in January globally. I would have perhaps locked down London and Birmingham and allowed no outbound travel from those areas initially. Again, its difficult to know which approach would/could have worked best. I am however concerned for the future. 

 

I think the damage to jobs and as a result mental health and wellbeing will be far more damaging long term and probably cause a lot of lives to be lost over the next 5 years. 

FFS no one in January had a clue - China was lying to the WHO, and if you read the minutes from the Government advisory committees they had no reason to make any such changes until well into Feb.

[ealingfox]

4 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

This is no slander on NHS staff.

Having to redirect resources, to maintain public order in areas which require control due to outrage based on such outbursts is hardly sensible.

Yes, there is a need to examine what happened, what went wrong, but after this is done, not during. 

It is disappointing that people need this explaining. 

 

And where has this happened?

 

If things are going wrong you raise the alarm during, not after the event. You examine what happened after the event, but that is something different. If your house was on fire would you watch it burn down and wait to examine the ashes? Or would you call the fire brigade?

[Foxin_Mad]

1 minute ago, bovril said:

I agree.

But I still think it would've been impossible for us to go down the Sweden route. People saw what was going on in Italy. 

Possibly, I suppose noone will ever know.

 

I suppose the risk is, which is why I kind of understood the herd immunity approach say 80% of the population can catch this and recover with minor symptoms. Maybe 10% die (perhaps basic overestimation).

 

The question is what percentage of the population will be affected and as a result die by this approach?

 

Really the government is delaying the inevitable with Furlouging, later in the year if the economy doesn't come back quickly we could be looking at 8 million unemployed workers. 

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, ealingfox said:

 

And where has this happened?

 

If things are going wrong you raise the alarm during, not after the event. You examine what happened after the event, but that is something different. If your house was on fire would you watch it burn down and wait to examine the ashes? Or would you call the fire brigade?

Do you not see the people ignoring isolation orders? The climate is already there.

Do you really think that the derailing the Governmental message by use of faceless social media posts is what free speech is all about?

Unity, not division, is what the current societal mindset needs to be, not provoking further division through a witch hunt fueled by social media and the more fragrant elements of the media.

Yes to accountability, Yes to apportion of blame and merit, no to time and resource consuming witch hunts during the current time.

 

But I guess I am just out of touch.

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, bovril said:

That's mental. Boyfriend at 80?

Don’t tell his wife.

[Jon the Hat]

3 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

Possibly, I suppose noone will ever know.

 

I suppose the risk is, which is why I kind of understood the herd immunity approach say 80% of the population can catch this and recover with minor symptoms. Maybe 10% die (perhaps basic overestimation).

 

The question is what percentage of the population will be affected and as a result die by this approach?

 

Really the government is delaying the inevitable with Furlouging, later in the year if the economy doesn't come back quickly we could be looking at 8 million unemployed workers. 

No one has suggest at any point that this has anything like a 10% mortality rate.  That comes for very incorectly comparing deaths with a small proportion of total infections who are detected through testing.

 

Say 70% have no symptoms - not tested at all (except maybe in South Korea)

15% suffer at home with minor symptoms

15% enter the hospital system

of these maybe half are tested and found to have COVI-19

Vs those stats 10% die - so you are actually showing 10% of 7.5% = 0.75% death rate, which while nasty is a very long way from 10%.

 

 

[Tuna]

What is wrong with people?

 

[Foxin_Mad]

4 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

FFS no one in January had a clue - China was lying to the WHO, and if you read the minutes from the Government advisory committees they had no reason to make any such changes until well into Feb.

Well that raises serious questions about China - I would certainly not trust them with anything again after this. As soon as we have an imported case, we should have taken action. But hindsight as you say is a wonderful thing. 

 

This whole thing also shows that globalisation is a complete and utter disaster and needs to be reversed not just economically but environmentally. We need to be primarily self sufficient as a nation for food and manufactured products and supply chain. There is no good ethical or environment reason to ship or fly stuff half way round the world.

[ealingfox]

3 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Do you not see the people ignoring isolation orders? The climate is already there.

Do you really think that the derailing the Governmental message by use of faceless social media posts is what free speech is all about?

Unity, not division, is what the current societal mindset needs to be, not provoking further division through a witch hunt fueled by social media and the more fragrant elements of the media.

Yes to accountability, Yes to apportion of blame and merit, no to time and resource consuming witch hunts during the current time.

 

But I guess I am just out of touch.

 

A minority of people have been doing that throughout, there's no correlation between that and frontline workers calling for action and provision where it is needed. The vast majority are complying with the instructions and have done so throughout.

 

The government's message on social distancing is one facet of this situation and it is separate to this. Dismissing people's concerns out of hand as a witch hunt because it's inconvenient is far more damaging.

[SpacedX]

2 hours ago, swanlee said:

Well I've certainly heard some barbed comments in the past about masks used for heath reasons. And believe it or not quite recently in fact.

 

And you may well be right, perhaps the development of urban mega-cities across china has resulted in higher levels of pollution. And has thus resulted in more recent years in masks being deployed for this reason.

 

But in my understanding, it has long been common to wear masks in Asia out of consideration for others with regards health issues.

 

So have I - recently too. 

 

Yes, I do agree, there very probably is a consideration of public health in there too.

 

 

2 hours ago, swanlee said:

Sorry if you misconstrued that phrase. The last time I used the tube was in fact three weeks ago, before my office shutdown and my consequent furlough. I've been working & living in London now for many years.

 

The daily commute, and expense it involves, being one of the least appealing features of living in the south east. I've long now, and with some reluctance, come to consider myself an adopted Londoner.

 

And I'm sorry, I have to disagree with you. In my opinion the notion of an indigenous Londoner became anachronistic years ago. (There'll be many a southerner that may well disagree with me there though!)

As a former Londoner, I'm the reverse - although I have been living and working there again recently. I think again, it's entirely dependent upon the local geographies. There are some that are more diverse and some that have experienced higher levels of gentrification than others. In respect of the latter, I'm always fascinated when I travel overground to see the renovation of the old Peabody Estates that I remember as a child. Unfortunately for many, gentrification is a very different process to regeneration. 

[Jon the Hat]

12 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

And where has this happened?

 

If things are going wrong you raise the alarm during, not after the event. You examine what happened after the event, but that is something different. If your house was on fire would you watch it burn down and wait to examine the ashes? Or would you call the fire brigade?

Look at it another way -

1) Are those who are trying to secure sufficient PPE for the next few weeks of peak; 

    a) Helped by politicans asking them for updates every 5 minutes becuase the press keep demanding answers or;

    b) Hindered by politicians asking them for updates every 5 minutes

 

2) Are those who concevied, planned and executed the procurment, creation and purchase of additional ventilators;

   a) Helped by the press reporting on every company who they didn't choose to progress for whatever reason or;

   b) Hindered by the press reporting on every company who they didn't choose to progress for whatever reason

 

3) Are the scientists who are advising the government based on models which necessarily based on incomplete data;

   a) Helped by the media second guessing their models based on very limited knowledge or some bloke of the internet who is not involved?

   b) Hindered by the media second guessing their models based on very limited knowledge or some bloke of the internet who is not involved?

 

[Foxin_Mad]

2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

No one has suggest at any point that this has anything like a 10% mortality rate.  That comes for very incorectly comparing deaths with a small proportion of total infections who are detected through testing.

 

Say 70% have no symptoms - not tested at all (except maybe in South Korea)

15% suffer at home with minor symptoms

15% enter the hospital system

of these maybe half are tested and found to have COVI-19

Vs those stats 10% die - so you are actually showing 10% of 7.5% = 0.75% death rate, which while nasty is a very long way from 10%.

 

 

I agree, which is why testing should be increased as much as possible by whatever means.  If we need chemicals then lets use our chemical industry and expertise to make them.That was a very rough fag packet calculation based on limited data. I am sure the reality of the figures is more positive, which if anything further supports that the damage with be far worse with an extended lock down. I get that noone wants people to die of a horrible illness, but more people will die over a longer period under this plan in my view. People will die unless the government has an unlimited budget to spend on paying people wages. 

 

Im baffled why we can not make for example paracetamol here and instead import it from India - who have restricted the amount they export (understandably for their own population).

[ithuriel]

3 minutes ago, Tuna said:

What is wrong with people?

 

Reminds me of that World of Warcraft event with the blood plague that scientist studied to see how peeps would act in the event of an epidemic, some people just do not care and go out of their way to harm others.

https://www.pcgamer.com/uk/the-researchers-who-once-studied-wows-corrupted-blood-plague-are-now-fighting-the-coronavirus/

 

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, ealingfox said:

 

A minority of people have been doing that throughout, there's no correlation between that and frontline workers calling for action and provision where it is needed. The vast majority are complying with the instructions and have done so throughout.

 

The government's message on social distancing is one facet of this situation and it is separate to this. Dismissing people's concerns out of hand as a witch hunt because it's inconvenient is far more damaging.

Lets revisit this after the Easter weekend. I hope you are right, and my cynical opinion is condemned to the rubbish bin. This crisis has badly dented by faith in the general public's ability to act as a cohesive unit for the greater good, and I never dismissed concerns, merely stated they should (must) be reviewed at the appropriate time, which I feel is not now.

You can find people who have justified or other wise complaints at any given moment about any given thing, but for complaints to be heeded in a crisis, the complaints must represent the majority, not the vocal minority, and not detract from the efforts put in saving the situation.

[Jon the Hat]

2 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

I agree, which is why testing should be increased as much as possible by whatever means.  If we need chemicals then lets use our chemical industry and expertise to make them.That was a very rough fag packet calculation based on limited data. I am sure the reality of the figures is more positive, which if anything further supports that the damage with be far worse with an extended lock down. I get that noone wants people to die of a horrible illness, but more people will die over a longer period under this plan in my view. People will die unless the government has an unlimited budget to spend on paying people wages. 

 

Im baffled why we can not make for example paracetamol here and instead import it from India - who have restricted the amount they export (understandably for their own population).

I'm not sure I follow the logic for testing to be honest.  What do you do with the additional information?  Do we belive this can be eradicated?  Not sure how you get there from pandemic.  Seems to be we have to cuk it up while managing the peaks until we have a decent vaccine in place, and mass testing only serves to reduce the % rather than the actual impacts.  I might be completely missing the point though!

[Costock_Fox]

13 minutes ago, Tuna said:

What is wrong with people?

 

It’s bad isn’t it, who eats vegetables?

[theessexfox]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Doesn't change that the idea of being a presenter of a news show is that you don't give your opinions on a subject, whether you deem that factual or not.

 

Although I actually take the Peter Hitchen view here - I wish they would do it more often, at least we would have it confirmed to us that almost everyone in the broadcast media holds the liberal metropolitan outlook they do.

 

The BBC is actually still the best of the bunch though, compared to C4 and Sky (since Goodall and Rigby took over) they are a bastion of neutrality.

What would be the opposite of the liberal metropolitan outlooked that Maitlis expressed there? That the virus isn’t disproportionately affecting and killing poorer frontline workers (and BAME communities, for a myriad of reasons I imagine)? That the social safety net we currently have doesn’t have significant holes that people are falling through? Or is the opposite of the liberal metropolitan outlook to pretend that none of that is happening?

[Blue ROI]

The good weather has come at the worst possible time in lockdown. The crisis began for us over 4 weeks ago and ever since the weather has been glorious.

 

In one way it might be a blessing if it can hinder covid19 but when you need calm heads it's a nuisance as everybody is tempted to go to the beaches or head to the parks.

 

Personally I wouldnt go near these places at the best of times. The forces will be camped in most of these places which could lead to trouble. But some people would badly want to have got the message by now.

Edited 9 April 2020 by Blue ROI

[davieG]

6 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

I agree, which is why testing should be increased as much as possible by whatever means.  If we need chemicals then lets use our chemical industry and expertise to make them.That was a very rough fag packet calculation based on limited data. I am sure the reality of the figures is more positive, which if anything further supports that the damage with be far worse with an extended lock down. I get that noone wants people to die of a horrible illness, but more people will die over a longer period under this plan in my view. People will die unless the government has an unlimited budget to spend on paying people wages. 

 

Im baffled why we can not make for example paracetamol here and instead import it from India - who have restricted the amount they export (understandably for their own population).

Ever since the industrial revolution products have been made where the labour is cheapest hence why the source has continually moved from one country to another - UK -Japan - Taiwan - Singapore - South Korea etc (not necessarily in that order)because people naturally want the best priced products.

[SpacedX]

3 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I'm not sure I follow the logic for testing to be honest.  What do you do with the additional information?  Do we belive this can be eradicated?  Not sure how you get there from pandemic.  Seems to be we have to cuk it up while managing the peaks until we have a decent vaccine in place, and mass testing only serves to reduce the % rather than the actual impacts.  I might be completely missing the point though!

Any vaccine developed will need to undergo human trials, with the vast majority needing to be tested on animals first. The approval can be a very protracted process, but on 16th March the first human was injected in the Moderna trial. Unfortunately, even though mRNA vaccines tend to be quicker than traditional vaccines, they still have to be subjected to rigorous testing processed to ensure safety and efficiency. If one is available before 2021 I'll eat my, sorry, your hat. 

[ealingfox]

9 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Look at it another way -

1) Are those who are trying to secure sufficient PPE for the next few weeks of peak; 

    a) Helped by politicans asking them for updates every 5 minutes becuase the press keep demanding answers or;

    b) Hindered by politicians asking them for updates every 5 minutes

 

2) Are those who concevied, planned and executed the procurment, creation and purchase of additional ventilators;

   a) Helped by the press reporting on every company who they didn't choose to progress for whatever reason or;

   b) Hindered by the press reporting on every company who they didn't choose to progress for whatever reason

 

3) Are the scientists who are advising the government based on models which necessarily based on incomplete data;

   a) Helped by the media second guessing their models based on very limited knowledge or some bloke of the internet who is not involved?

   b) Hindered by the media second guessing their models based on very limited knowledge or some bloke of the internet who is not involved?

 

 

This is a pointless exercise. Clearly you think the answer to all 3 is b despite having moulded the questions to suit you and no evidence about any of it. None of the groups are necessarily helped or hindered.

 

What we can say is that applying pressure forces action, we have seen that multiple times within this very episode.

[Foxin_Mad]

1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

I'm not sure I follow the logic for testing to be honest.  What do you do with the additional information?  Do we belive this can be eradicated?  Not sure how you get there from pandemic.  Seems to be we have to cuk it up while managing the peaks until we have a decent vaccine in place, and mass testing only serves to reduce the % rather than the actual impacts.  I might be completely missing the point though!

My though on the logic would be to better know who has had it, and also areas where infections may have happened in the community.

 

The antibody check for me is crucial as it would allow the economy to resume even if reduced capacity, potentially people to be certified if they are immune.

 

I just feel this whole lockdown until when? nobody knows! is so very very dangerous to a great many more peoples lives and livelihoods for a lot longer periods possible 5-10 years. 

 

The government schemes are helpful for now, my staff are paid until the end of May on Furlough. Then what? The economy I suspect will be slow and cautious for months after. Pay goes back up to full with reduced income, my profitable business begins hemorrhaging money - I don't want a loan so then what? I have Furloughed myself which means I have had to take personal financial hits, which have to be repaid at some point in the future all of this adds to stress while worrying about protecting my workers/colleagues! what gives?

[Lionator]

So the eagerly anticipated ‘Heinsberg study’ results have been released this morning. Heinsberg is the ‘German Wuhan’ where they have a huge outbreak of cases in late February. The key findings have been: 

 

- Unsurprisingly they’ve found that viral exposure can predict severity. Hence why there’s a higher death rate in healthcare staff. PPE should be the number 1 priority for everyone. 
 

- The estimated infection fatality rate is 0.3% which would mean it is 3x deadlier than the flu.

 

- 15% of their study population (1500) have antibodies, where they’d only estimated for there to be 5% indicating its way more widespread and infectious than estimated.

 

- They conclude that herd immunity may be the best way out of this, however the vulnerable would still have to be shielded as much as possible. 
 

Just to note this is absolutely the best and most detailed data we have so far on Covid-19. 

Edited 9 April 2020 by Lionator

[Foxin_Mad]

14 minutes ago, davieG said:

Ever since the industrial revolution products have been made where the labour is cheapest hence why the source has continually moved from one country to another - UK -Japan - Taiwan - Singapore - South Korea etc (not necessarily in that order)because people naturally want the best priced products.

People need to change their whole way of thinking. If the young are serious about the environment, we need to become more sustainable. The reduction in unnecessary travel is profound environmentally. Technology has a huge part to play. 

 

It might be economically better to buy junk from China but is it ethically and environmentally better? With China being the source of this and the cover ups - is it even economically better?

 

Is it more sustainable to buy something shipped half way round the world from a global conglomerate who pays not tax or by the same thing that costs more from steve down the road, who employs local people, paying a fair wage, pays tax, sources components from other local businesses. Globalisation is broken, quite frankly its morally, socially, well-being, bankrupt. This whole pandemic has showed its flaws. 

 

I am quite sure we will go back to our old ways again. 

Edited 9 April 2020 by Foxin_Mad