Coronavirus Thread

[dsr-burnley]

30 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

the deaths would be higher now if the actions werent took

We have among the highest death rates in the world.  Even the death rate in countries like Brazil that took virtually no action are little worse.  We've had the worst of all worlds.

 

It's fairly clear by now that coronavirus was not Spanish Flu and wouldn't have been Spanish Flu even if left unchecked.  

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

As we discussed on Saturday, it all depends on how seriously you take the pcr test.

The science shows that this test is not fit for purpose in the context of what it is being used for.

It shows no such thing (in the context of peer reviewed, serious literature anyway) and it's tiring to keep having to point this out when that proof is still not forthcoming and all the argument is based on is hearsay and innuendo.

 

3 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

We have among the highest death rates in the world.  Even the death rate in countries like Brazil that took virtually no action are little worse.  We've had the worst of all worlds.

 

It's fairly clear by now that coronavirus was not Spanish Flu and wouldn't have been Spanish Flu even if left unchecked.  

Maybe, maybe not. Again, we can't prove this.

 

There's still way too much we don't know about this thing so I have no idea why people aren't inclined to be risk averse when the stakes are so high.

 

Wait, actually I do know why - self-interest.

[Desabafar]

8 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

We have among the highest death rates in the world.  Even the death rate in countries like Brazil that took virtually no action are little worse.  We've had the worst of all worlds.

 

It's fairly clear by now that coronavirus was not Spanish Flu and wouldn't have been Spanish Flu even if left unchecked.  

the death rate being one of the highest doesn't mean it wouldn't have been higher

 

Brazil underreport 

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54387856

 

Boris Johnson urges people to ‘go to the cinema’

[joachim1965]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

It shows no such thing (in the context of peer reviewed, serious literature anyway) and it's tiring to keep having to point this out when that proof is still not forthcoming and all the argument is based on is hearsay and innuendo.

 

Maybe, maybe not. Again, we can't prove this.

 

There's still way too much we don't know about this thing so I have no idea why people aren't inclined to be risk averse when the stakes are so high.

 

Wait, actually I do know why - self-interest.

I do respect your views but believe you are wrong on this one, many respected people including doctors, professors and Nobel prize winners do state that pcr cannot and should not be used for diagnoses, it provides a very high number of false positives,  if the amount of positives were true cases, the deaths would increase accordingly,  they clearly are not so could you please explain to me why they are not .

[joachim1965]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54387856

 

Boris Johnson urges people to ‘go to the cinema’

Is this moron taking the piss.

[ealingfox]

3 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54387856

 

Boris Johnson urges people to ‘go to the cinema’

 

So Tories can blame young people for the virus again a month down the line presumably.

 

The only thing I wanted to see at the cinema at the moment was the James Bond film anyway

 

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

deaths will follow as the month progresses - they already are - what is an acceptable ‘deaths per day seven day average’ for people ?? 
 

That's a very real question.  With flu and pneumonia, the death rate has run at 300 or so deaths per day for many many years and is presumably acceptable.  It might be better to look at the overall deaths rather than the coronavirus deaths.

 

It's a trade off.  Look at the over 80's, for example, disproportionately the largest sufferers.  There are 3 million people aged over 80 in this country, and In the last 6 months, under normal circumstances, 150,000 of them would have died.  In fact, because of coronavirus, it's 180,000.  They don't produce stats - I don't know if they could - as to how many of them were already on death's pathway.

 

But the 150,000 who would have died anyway have had a completely miserable last 6 months, and the further 200,000 who have just lived their last summer have had a pretty miserable one too.  The 500,000 with dementia have, mostly, deteriorated faster than they would have if they had had normal social interation and been able to see their relatives.  Many of the 2.5 million who didn't have dementia will have started down that trail.  Many will have suffered because they couldn't see a doctor and something has been missed.  Many will have suffered because their cataract operation, or hip operation, or knee operation, or tumour that wasn't serious at the time but now it's too late operation, have been cancelled.  2 million such operations have been cancelled across the country - I don't know how many are for the old.

 

Basically, what I am saying is that 1% of over 80's have died because of coronavirus and 99% have had their lives made worse because of the fight against it.  What would have happened if we had let it ride like Sweden?  We don't know.  But the current policy appears to be to let the children, students and employed people interact with hundreds of people while the elderly interact with no-one.  It is certainly time IMO to let the elderly and those who care for them off the leash to make their own decisions as to health and well being.  At present we could very well have a young person seeing 100 people per week and an old person seeing 2.  Telling the young person to carry on seeing 100 while depriving the old person of his 2 visits may (but only may) slow down the spread by a tiny amount but will certainly badly affect the well being of many.

[Desabafar]

3 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

I do respect your views but believe you are wrong on this one, many respected people including doctors, professors and Nobel prize winners do state that pcr cannot and should not be used for diagnoses, it provides a very high number of false positives,  if the amount of positives were true cases, the deaths would increase accordingly,  they clearly are not so could you please explain to me why they are not .

it takes 2+ weeks for case to become death. deaths were half what they are now 2 weeks ago so they are going up but it wont go up as much yet because lots of young people infected but they can pass it on to old people who will die

[joachim1965]

Just now, Desabafar said:

it takes 2+ weeks for case to become death. deaths were half what they are now 2 weeks ago so they are going up but it wont go up as much yet because lots of young people infected but they can pass it on to old people who will die

sorry , that's absolute bollox.

[dsr-burnley]

14 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

the death rate being one of the highest doesn't mean it wouldn't have been higher

 

Brazil underreport 

This report, says that excess deaths in Brazil were 22% in the 12 weeks to 6th June.  This coincides with the peak of the epidemic in the UK when excess deaths were 48%.  It's based on the same period for the previous 5 years and doesn't take account of cause of death, so underreporting of coronavirus won't affect the figures.  (Underreporting of deaths in general would affect the figures, but it's an awful lot of bodies to hide to make a significant difference to the figures.)

 

Of course, Brazil's death rate hasn't gone down anything like as quickly as ours, partly perhaps because of lack of precautions and partly perhaps because it's a huge country and the pandemic hadn't got going by June in some areas.  But even so, their excess deaths are probably still below ours and certainly not way ahead.

 

https://www.vitalstrategies.org/resources/excess-mortality-in-brazil-a-detailed-description-of-trends-in-mortality-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

I do respect your views but believe you are wrong on this one, many respected people including doctors, professors and Nobel prize winners do state that pcr cannot and should not be used for diagnoses, it provides a very high number of false positives,  if the amount of positives were true cases, the deaths would increase accordingly,  they clearly are not so could you please explain to me why they are not .

There are a myriad of reasons why the death rate in the UK seems to have slowed down at the present time - better treatment, a mutation, it hitting less vulnerable groups, or a combination thereof, just off the top of my head. It certainly doesn't have to be down to a dodgy PCR test.

 

Perhaps I am wrong - it's certainly possible - but forgive me for thinking that I would like cast-iron scientific proof. Not talking heads, as astute as they may be, but verified, data-driven, peer-reviewed and verified proof, identifying exactly what factor is driving the lessened death figures and (more importantly) how it might be controlled should the UK open up again in order to keep those death levels the way they are now, before they even think of opening up again.

 

NB. Thanks for being fair in your tone during this discussion.

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

sorry , that's absolute bollox.

maybe this is why few will indulge in debate with you ……….granted you began with 'sorry' but you're position seems a bit 'set'. 

[leicsmac]

Just now, dsr-burnley said:

This report, says that excess deaths in Brazil were 22% in the 12 weeks to 6th June.  This coincides with the peak of the epidemic in the UK when excess deaths were 48%.  It's based on the same period for the previous 5 years and doesn't take account of cause of death, so underreporting of coronavirus won't affect the figures.  (Underreporting of deaths in general would affect the figures, but it's an awful lot of bodies to hide to make a significant difference to the figures.)

 

Of course, Brazil's death rate hasn't gone down anything like as quickly as ours, partly perhaps because of lack of precautions and partly perhaps because it's a huge country and the pandemic hadn't got going by June in some areas.  But even so, their excess deaths are probably still below ours and certainly not way ahead.

 

https://www.vitalstrategies.org/resources/excess-mortality-in-brazil-a-detailed-description-of-trends-in-mortality-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

With all due respect to the authorities in Brazil, an awful lot of bodies might not be as difficult to hide (or at least not identify the cause) there as one might think.

[dsr-burnley]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

With all due respect to the authorities in Brazil, an awful lot of bodies might not be as difficult to hide (or at least not identify the cause) there as one might think.

That's the point of the excess deaths stat.  It records the total number who have died regardless of cause compared with the previous year.  It wouldn't matter of all the coronavirus victims were described as dying of flu, their deaths would still be recorded.  Brazil is a democracy, not a dictatorship; and I doubt they have the infrastructure to hide the number of deaths they would need to.

[st albans fox]

11 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

it takes 2+ weeks for case to become death. deaths were half what they are now 2 weeks ago so they are going up but it wont go up as much yet because lots of young people infected but they can pass it on to old people who will die

its a lot longer than that, especially with better treatments now available 

 

as far as i am aware, the point of the restrictions and original lockdown was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed by cases and more importantly for those caring for the infected to also be protected from it.  it's fine to have an attitude that 'i'm not bothered if i catch it so i wont take any precautions'  but does that mean

 

a) if you do need hospital treatment to get through it you're ok not being admitted and just suffering at home

b) if you infect others who suffer as a consequence of your blasé approach, you're prepared to compensate them for their losses (and what if someone you infect dies way ahead of 'their time' ??)

 

these points not directed at you btw, just chucked out there 

 

 

[joachim1965]

7 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

maybe this is why few will indulge in debate with you ……….granted you began with 'sorry' but you're position seems a bit 'set'. 

maybe it was a tad harsh, but that doesn't make it untrue.

 

[RowlattsFox]

This thread has got a bit repetitive now hasn't it, always value opinion of people who know more than me about this sort of thing so like to follow the thread but its the same debate over and over again. 

 

I don't think we particularly need daily case announcements at this stage. A weekly press conference where they update us on the latest and whether there are any changes to rules is enough for me. Surely allows data to be interpreted and analysed properly. 

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

That's the point of the excess deaths stat.  It records the total number who have died regardless of cause compared with the previous year.  It wouldn't matter of all the coronavirus victims were described as dying of flu, their deaths would still be recorded.  Brazil is a democracy, not a dictatorship; and I doubt they have the infrastructure to hide the number of deaths they would need to.

Pardon my cynicism, but with the current man in charge I'm not entirely sure it's a democracy either.

 

I guess my point is that more people are perhaps dying of this there than are being recorded at all, rather than being incorrectly recorded. I'm not sure they have the infrastructure and manpower everywhere to keep that kind of detailed record, and so I'm entirely unsure of their overall case and death figure. I could well be wrong, though - that's just a hunch on my part.

[joachim1965]

2 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

This thread has got a bit repetitive now hasn't it, always value opinion of people who know more than me about this sort of thing so like to follow the thread but its the same debate over and over again. 

 

I don't think we particularly need daily case announcements at this stage. A weekly press conference where they update us on the latest and whether there are any changes to rules is enough for me. Surely allows data to be interpreted and analysed properly. 

 

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Pardon my cynicism, but with the current man in charge I'm not entirely sure it's a democracy either.

 

I guess my point is that more people are perhaps dying of this there than are being recorded at all, rather than being incorrectly recorded. I'm not sure they have the infrastructure and manpower everywhere to keep that kind of detailed record, and so I'm entirely unsure of their overall case and death figure. I could well be wrong, though - that's just a hunch on my part.

There is no democracy anymore, we are living in a world where free speech is censored, socialising is banned, you can't even sing or dance in a pub. The government no longer have to debate and vote to have laws passed in Parliament,  they can just throw them out willy nilly . Doesn't sound like a free democracy to me.

[yorkie1999]

3 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

This thread has got a bit repetitive now hasn't it, always value opinion of people who know more than me about this sort of thing so like to follow the thread but its the same debate over and over again. 

 

I don't think we particularly need daily case announcements at this stage. A weekly press conference where they update us on the latest and whether there are any changes to rules is enough for me. Surely allows data to be interpreted and analysed properly. 

This is what should have happened all through the pandemic, even every 10 days. The population knowing daily figures is pretty pointless as nothing can be done by those not in positions of control. It would allow for erroneous data and mistakes to be put right before the media and press get hold of it so we can all see a true picture of what's going on. The "instant news" media cycle we have does far more damage than good. 

[Dunge]

I’ve never been happy with arguments about this virus along the lines of directly comparing deaths rates.

 

Britain is a country that:

- is densely populated;

- has a relatively high percentage of elderly people;

- has a relatively high percentage of obese people;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with diabetes;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with other significant “comorbidities”;

- has an unhealthy diet by and large;

- has a relatively low level of sunlight (important source of vitamin D);
- is liberal rather than authoritarian;

- has a population who are not given to being told what to do (usually a significant strength imo, but bad for this situation);
 

If you were to design a country that would be hard hit by this virus, it would look a lot like us.
 

There are so many factors at play here. I think there is something to admire about the approach of Sweden (a comparison often made), but even there they didn’t simply carry on as normal. The population, the culture, respected the virus in a way they haven’t here. They compromised. If we want a return to normality, it means pretty much everyone has to compromise.

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Pardon my cynicism, but with the current man in charge I'm not entirely sure it's a democracy either.

 

I guess my point is that more people are perhaps dying of this there than are being recorded at all, rather than being incorrectly recorded. I'm not sure they have the infrastructure and manpower everywhere to keep that kind of detailed record, and so I'm entirely unsure of their overall case and death figure. I could well be wrong, though - that's just a hunch on my part.

i very much doubt this is the case since june.  we had done well to reduce the virus across society but as is being seen across the globe, if you drop your focus it comes back fairly quickly.  how that translates into the debate is up for discussion...…...

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

7 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

This thread has got a bit repetitive now hasn't it, always value opinion of people who know more than me about this sort of thing so like to follow the thread but its the same debate over and over again. 

 

I don't think we particularly need daily case announcements at this stage. A weekly press conference where they update us on the latest and whether there are any changes to rules is enough for me. Surely allows data to be interpreted and analysed properly. 

Agree with this. 
The line is drawn in the sand for most on here. We’re just going over and over the same things and frustrations are coming to the fore.

As for the daily case announcements I also think it should be stopped and replaced by an announcement on hospital admissions and deaths, 2 figures that are far more important than case figures and a far bigger indicator to where we are at.

[yorkie1999]

3 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I’ve never been happy with arguments about this virus along the lines of directly comparing deaths rates.

 

Britain is a country that:

- is densely populated;

- has a relatively high percentage of elderly people;

- has a relatively high percentage of obese people;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with diabetes;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with other significant “comorbidities”;

- has an unhealthy diet by and large;

- has a relatively low level of sunlight (important source of vitamin D);
- is liberal rather than authoritarian;

- has a population who are not given to being told what to do (usually a significant strength imo, but bad for this situation);
 

If you were to design a country that would be hard hit by this virus, it would look a lot like us.
 

There are so many factors at play here. I think there is something to admire about the approach of Sweden (a comparison often made), but even there they didn’t simply carry on as normal. The population, the culture, respected the virus in a way they haven’t here. They compromised. If we want a return to normality, it means pretty much everyone has to compromise.

Plus their main diet doesn't consist of fry-ups, chip butties, fizzy pop and cakes.