Coronavirus Thread

[Guest Harrydc]

So it's looking likely Nottingham will go in to a local 'lockdown'. Can't wait to have what's left of my freedom stripped away in the next couple of days. 

Edited 5 October 2020 by Harrydc

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

Approximately 10,000 people die every week in England and Wales, for any manner of reasons, COVID is responsible for a tiny percentage.

 

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

i very much doubt this is the case since june.  we had done well to reduce the virus across society but as is being seen across the globe, if you drop your focus it comes back fairly quickly.  how that translates into the debate is up for discussion...…...

I was referring to Brazil, for the record.

[leicsmac]

17 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

 

There is no democracy anymore, we are living in a world where free speech is censored, socialising is banned, you can't even sing or dance in a pub. The government no longer have to debate and vote to have laws passed in Parliament,  they can just throw them out willy nilly . Doesn't sound like a free democracy to me.

Way I see it, Churchill was right when he said "democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time" and when he said " the best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter".

[Desabafar]

50 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

sorry , that's absolute bollox.

our world data has weekly deaths 362 today. two weeks ago 21st September 149 so more than double. so tell me how it is bollox

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-covid-deaths?tab=chart&time=2020-09-01..latest&country=~GBR

[st albans fox]

Just now, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Agree with this. 
The line is drawn in the sand for most on here. We’re just going over and over the same things and frustrations are coming to the fore.

As for the daily case announcements I also think it should be stopped and replaced by an announcement on hospital admissions and deaths, 2 figures that are far more important than case figures and a far bigger indicator to where we are at.

except that shows you where you,ve been, not where you're going. go back to early march and see the daily death rate and hospital admissions - the death rate would give you no idea at all what was less than four weeks away. on march 20th (just a few days before lockdown), the seven day rolling daily average on deaths was 25. ten days later it was 244. hospital admissions on march 20th were 691. ten days later they were 2817.  by the time you see that action is needed its pretty late into the cycle. however, if you are of the opinion that getting to where we were in the final third of march, having had no real restrictions at all up until mid march is not a problem then i guess you can set markers of daily admissions of 500 to trigger huge restrictions but my suspicion would be that this would happen way too fast for the libertarians to cope with …….

[joachim1965]

1 minute ago, Desabafar said:

our world data has weekly deaths 362 today. two weeks ago 21st September 149 so more than double. so tell me how it is bollox

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-covid-deaths?tab=chart&time=2020-09-01..latest&country=~GBR

maybe that comment was a bit harsh, so apologies for that but 362 deaths per week  per week is 52 per day , it is not even 1 person in every million people of population, and of course , the deaths will increase as we head into winter, that's normal, my point is the measures being taken are not justified on the figures of hospitalizations and deaths,   the measures are being driven purely by "cases" which are the result of an inaccurate test.

We are not in the middle of a pandemic, or an epidemic, we are in a casedemic.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

except that shows you where you,ve been, not where you're going. go back to early march and see the daily death rate and hospital admissions - the death rate would give you no idea at all what was less than four weeks away. on march 20th (just a few days before lockdown), the seven day rolling daily average on deaths was 25. ten days later it was 244. hospital admissions on march 20th were 691. ten days later they were 2817.  by the time you see that action is needed its pretty late into the cycle. however, if you are of the opinion that getting to where we were in the final third of march, having had no real restrictions at all up until mid march is not a problem then i guess you can set markers of daily admissions of 500 to trigger huge restrictions but my suspicion would be that this would happen way too fast for the libertarians to cope with …….

But cases are no longer relevant to hospital admissions and deaths. 
It’s not March now. 
Hospital admissions and deaths are the two things people will listen to.

[Desabafar]

2 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

maybe that comment was a bit harsh, so apologies for that but 362 deaths per week  per week is 52 per day , it is not even 1 person in every million people of population, and of course , the deaths will increase as we head into winter, that's normal, my point is the measures being taken are not justified on the figures of hospitalizations and deaths,   the measures are being driven purely by "cases" which are the result of an inaccurate test.

We are not in the middle of a pandemic, or an epidemic, we are in a casedemic.

 u said deaths aren't going up but they are going up. u called it bollox when i point this out then move the goalposts cos u r happy with 52 deaths a day which is probably going to rise more

[joachim1965]

This is without covid.

[joachim1965]

the black line is with covid added, the deaths are comparable with the previous five years 

[joachim1965]

3 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

 u said deaths aren't going up but they are going up. u called it bollox when i point this out then move the goalposts cos u r happy with 52 deaths a day which is probably going to rise more

Not happy with any deaths, but unfortunately humans die, if you can't accept that then your life is going to be fraught with stress.

my point is the deaths are now comparable to a normal year, yes we had a spike when we had the epidemic but we don't anymore.

 

[Nalis]

44 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I’ve never been happy with arguments about this virus along the lines of directly comparing deaths rates.

 

Britain is a country that:

- is densely populated;

- has a relatively high percentage of elderly people;

- has a relatively high percentage of obese people;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with diabetes;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with other significant “comorbidities”;

- has an unhealthy diet by and large;

- has a relatively low level of sunlight (important source of vitamin D);
- is liberal rather than authoritarian;

- has a population who are not given to being told what to do (usually a significant strength imo, but bad for this situation);
 

If you were to design a country that would be hard hit by this virus, it would look a lot like us.
 

There are so many factors at play here. I think there is something to admire about the approach of Sweden (a comparison often made), but even there they didn’t simply carry on as normal. The population, the culture, respected the virus in a way they haven’t here. They compromised. If we want a return to normality, it means pretty much everyone has to compromise.

Yeah Sweden comes up a lot of this thread as a pioneer for no restrictions but the reality is they have had restrictions, just not as many as other european countries. And a different culture to our own.

[FoxesDeb]

4 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

Not happy with any deaths, but unfortunately humans die, if you can't accept that then your life is going to be fraught with stress.

my point is the deaths are now comparable to a normal year, yes we had a spike when we had the epidemic but we don't anymore.

 

Do you not think that is because of the restrictions then? You don't believe the virus is still there, and if we go back to normal deaths will not increase?

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, FoxesDeb said:

Do you not think that is because of the restrictions then? You don't believe the virus is still there, and if we go back to normal deaths will not increase?

And (sorry for me repeating myself) cannot prove this to any burden of proof that such a decision would require.

[Paninistickers]

41 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I’ve never been happy with arguments about this virus along the lines of directly comparing deaths rates.

 

Britain is a country that:

- is densely populated;

- has a relatively high percentage of elderly people;

- has a relatively high percentage of obese people;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with diabetes;

- has a relatively high percentage of people with other significant “comorbidities”;

- has an unhealthy diet by and large;

- has a relatively low level of sunlight (important source of vitamin D);
- is liberal rather than authoritarian;

- has a population who are not given to being told what to do (usually a significant strength imo, but bad for this situation);
 

If you were to design a country that would be hard hit by this virus, it would look a lot like us.
 

There are so many factors at play here. I think there is something to admire about the approach of Sweden (a comparison often made), but even there they didn’t simply carry on as normal. The population, the culture, respected the virus in a way they haven’t here. They compromised. If we want a return to normality, it means pretty much everyone has to compromise.

I think that part is something in particular that pisses me off with the 'great: british public. 

 

Stop your average Joe In the street - like yougov do - and they'll back.lockdown and Moan that 'other people' are ignoring the rules

 

But then without any hint of irony, the same pro.lockdown punter will visit their elderly mam in the house after a night out or a day in the office.

 

We just as a nation can't behave like the Swedes. The average UK always wants it both ways; tighter restrictions except for your own personal circumstances. Lower tax but more public spending. No immigrants but a warehouse of cheap workers  prepping Amazon prime delivery.

[FoxesDeb]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

And (sorry for me repeating myself) cannot prove this to any burden of proof that such a decision would require.

But there's something on YouTube, innit….

[joachim1965]

1 minute ago, FoxesDeb said:

Do you not think that is because of the restrictions then? You don't believe the virus is still there, and if we go back to normal deaths will not increase?

spot on, but I do believe the virus is still here, it will always be here, we can't get rid of it just like you can't get rid of influenza or the common cold (coronavirus), it just isn't as prevailent as the government and media are making us believe,  pcr testing is driving this.

The deaths will increase as we go into winter but that happens every year and we don't normally bat an eyelid.

The death rate due to respiratory conditions is at the moment comparable to the previous five years.

[Finnaldo]

3 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Yeah Sweden comes up a lot of this thread as a pioneer for no restrictions but the reality is they have had restrictions, just not as many as other european countries. And a different culture to our own.

The Swedes, most importantly, seemed to have had a clear plan with a very straightforward set of rules causing no more economic damage than it had to. I appreciate the U.K. government could never have kept deaths anywhere near as low as Sweden (due to the physical and societal differences have been pointed out) or necessarily used the same plan, but we treated the whole thing as a joke to begin with, Boris shaking Covid patients hands, the dodged COBR meetings, letting the likes of Cheltenham go on. Since then, we’ve gone totally the other way and been completely reactive, and now the country is a patchwork of different rules and regs that even the PM can’t seem to keep up with. The failure to use the clean slate lockdown provided to put a well thought plan in place seems like a massive own goal now, but at least deaths seem a lot lower on this second wave on perhaps theres still time to put in a sensible, dynamic plan. 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

Early reports say another 19 people have died due to coronavirus in the last 24 hours, this is from the daily mirror though 🙈

Edited 

Edited 5 October 2020 by Mark 'expert' Lawrenson

[joachim1965]

Just now, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Early reports say another 10 people have died due to coronavirus in the last 24 hours, this is from the daily mirror though 🙈

so cases are rising and deaths are falling.

[Nalis]

1 minute ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Early reports say another 10 people have died due to coronavirus in the last 24 hours, this is from the daily mirror though 🙈

I guess the most important thing for the people/government to do is not to rejoice too much when we have low weekend figures then freak out when Tuesday's figures are a lot higher, the latter of which being a permanent reaction sadly.

[yorkie1999]

12 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

so cases are rising and deaths are falling.

Who knows? It's obvious that looking over a period of 24 hours does not work, i don't know why but you can't read anything if you look at the data since the beginning of July, one day its 180, next day it's 2, next day it's 150, etc.  I think the thing to do is to squint whilst looking at a graph, if the tops of the mountains are getting smaller, it's getting better.

[Fox in the North]

How are @Parafoxand @z-layrexfinding things at the moment? Always valued their opinion as medical professionals. Are things as chaotic for you as they were around March/April? 

[dsr-burnley]

55 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

And (sorry for me repeating myself) cannot prove this to any burden of proof that such a decision would require.

I think that's the wrong way round for burden of proof.  

 

If an individual decides that visiting mother is on balance the right thing to do, then the Government should not be stopping him or her doing that unless they can prove that allowing it will cause serious harm to the general public.  They shouldn't be placing the burden of proof on the individual to prove that visiting Mother will not harm anyone else.