Coronavirus Thread

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 minutes ago, Samilktray said:

Gonna have to work your way through about 10 plates of cheesy chips just to have a substantial night out

Or be the worlds slowest eater

[StanSP]

R rate between 0.9 and 1.

[Costock_Fox]

49 minutes ago, Samilktray said:

Gonna have to work your way through about 10 plates of cheesy chips just to have a substantial night out

Should be how a substantial night is normally defined imo.

[StanSP]

6 hours ago, Samilktray said:

Have they turned off the track & trace app now? I haven’t had a phantom notification in weeks disappointingly, always found it quite exciting when 1 came through. Have I or haven’t I been around the infected, what a bloody rush 

Maybe because of this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-55107272

 

Another mess.

Quote

 

Hundreds of people have been wrongly told they have coronavirus by NHS Test and Trace after a laboratory error.

More than 1,300 people who gave samples between 19 and 23 November received positive results, when the tests were actually void.

All of those affected will be told to take another test, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said.

Duncan Larcombe, whose daughter received the wrong result, said it was "more than an inconvenient mistake".

The PR company director, from Maidstone, Kent, said his two children, aged 14 and nine, were both sent home from school to self-isolate and he was unable to work.

His said his 14-year-old daughter had not left her bedroom for four days, with meals being left outside her door, until the family learned the result was void on Thursday.

"We were taking it very seriously," he said.

Mr Larcombe, a former royal editor at the Sun newspaper, said the mistake "brings into question for me whether or not this testing system is competent".

"The entire economy is relying on the competence of the testing laboratories and if they are not doing their job they need to be held to account," he said.

DHSC said it was an "isolated incident" caused by an "issue with a batch of testing chemicals" which had affected tests taken across the UK.

It is "being fully investigated to ensure this does not happen again," the department said.

Mr Larcombe's daughter has now received a negative result after taking a second test on Thursday.

"Given that [the government] have just decided to put the whole of Kent in tier 3, you just wonder, is their modelling flawed," he said.

DHSC has been asked to comment on whether the 1,311 incorrect results would affect regional figures for infection rates, which are represented as the number of cases per 100,000 people.

 

 

[bmt]

7 hours ago, BKLFox said:

Look about 6 posts up from yours, @leicsmac lives in SK & they did much of what your preferable path would be but its still there & rising currently yes they have a little more freedom currently but its not a case of ying & yang on how much of this is panning out.

The up shot of all this is that there are 2 options lockdowns or no lockdowns both come with their own set of problems.

As in South korea?

 

More freedom, 500 deaths on a population of 50 million and a strong economy. 

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/16/coronavirus-covid-economic-impact-recession-south-korea-success/

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-south-koreas-track-and-trace-system-has-kept-death-count-below-500-12103124

 

https://undark.org/2020/10/05/south-korea-covid-19-success/

 

As leicsmac has said, perhaps they are having a third wave but they've made it to vaccines being a reality with limited economic and mortality impact compared to other places.

Edited 27 November 2020 by bmt

[Wymsey]

Are barbers and allowed to open in tier-3 areas?

[Leicester_Loyal]

19 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

Are barbers and allowed to open in tier-3 areas?

Yes mate.

[Nod.E]

Been off work today with what feels like a stinking hangover. No I wasn't drinking yesterday!

 

No cough or loss of taste or smell.

 

Covid? Or just run down?

 

I have been working too much but it's unusual for me to completely shut down like this for a whole day.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

Doing the rounds on whatsapp...

 

 

New restrictions as of December 2nd

EAST MIDLANDS LEICESTER Area TIER 3 LOCKDOWN PROTOCOL

BEAUMONT LEYS - You are able to fight your neighbour providing you wear a mask and social distancing rules are adhered to.

ST MATTHEWS - Burgling homes in your local area is still permitted providing you sanitise before and after the offence. Track and trace technology must also be used.

SAFFRON LANE - You can only visit your dealer when collecting your children from school. The dealer should wear a face visor and make sure all bags are sanitised.

EYRES MONSELL- Having sex with your sister is still permitted but you must be home before 10pm and use approved lubricant.

NORTHFIELDS - Vigilante groups of no more than six allowed outdoors and socially distancing between the hours of 10pm - 2am only. You must wear suitable PPE for any physical contact.

HIGHFIELDS - Prostitute services are still permitted to remain open, this is now classed as essential services for fear of the economic collapse of the town. Entry from the rear only

OADBY AND WIGSTON- Now declared a NO GO ZONE (in 1984), if you must travel to this area please follow all diversions, traffic cones and signals, remain in your car, do not abandon your car, masks are not required as nothing is open

COALVILLE- Everyone must remain at home and self isolate until manufacturers can distribute gloves with 6 fingers. Please do not go to A&E for digit removal as they are a tad busy.

BRAUNSTONE- Do as you want, even Covid wouldn’t go to BRAUNSTONE!!

Stick to these guidelines and we'll get through it together.

All in this together folks 🙄👉🏾🗑

[Nick]

New restrictions as of December 2nd

 

EAST MIDLANDS LEICESTER Area TIER 3 LOCKDOWN PROTOCOL

 

BEAUMONT LEYS - You are able to fight your neighbour providing you wear a mask and social distancing rules are adhered to.

 

ST MATTHEWS - Burgling homes in your local area is still permitted providing you sanitise before and after the offence. Track and trace technology must also be used.

 

SAFFRON LANE - You can only visit your dealer when collecting your children from school. The dealer should wear a face visor and make sure all bags are sanitised.

 

EYRES MONSELL- Having sex with your sister is still permitted but you must be home before 10pm and use approved lubricant.

 

NORTHFIELDS - Vigilante groups of no more than six allowed outdoors and socially distancing between the hours of 10pm - 2am only. You must wear suitable PPE for any physical contact.

 

HIGHFIELDS - Prostitute services are still permitted to remain open, this is now classed as essential services for fear of the economic collapse of the town. Entry from the rear only.

 

OADBY AND WIGSTON- Now declared a NO GO ZONE (in 1984), if you must travel to this area please follow all diversions, traffic cones and signals, remain in your car, do not abandon your car, masks are not required as nothing is open

 

COALVILLE- Everyone must remain at home and self isolate until manufacturers can distribute gloves with 6 fingers. Please do not go to A&E for digit removal as they are a tad busy.

 

BRAUNSTONE- Do as you want, even Covid wouldn’t go to BRAUNSTONE!!

 

Stick to these guidelines and we'll get through it together.

All in this together folks 🙄👉🏾🗑

[StanSP]

Fvck it I might as well post it too.

 

 

New restrictions as of December 2nd

 

EAST MIDLANDS LEICESTER Area TIER 3 LOCKDOWN PROTOCOL

 

BEAUMONT LEYS - You are able to fight your neighbour providing you wear a mask and social distancing rules are adhered to.

 

ST MATTHEWS - Burgling homes in your local area is still permitted providing you sanitise before and after the offence. Track and trace technology must also be used.

 

SAFFRON LANE - You can only visit your dealer when collecting your children from school. The dealer should wear a face visor and make sure all bags are sanitised.

 

EYRES MONSELL- Having sex with your sister is still permitted but you must be home before 10pm and use approved lubricant.

 

NORTHFIELDS - Vigilante groups of no more than six allowed outdoors and socially distancing between the hours of 10pm - 2am only. You must wear suitable PPE for any physical contact.

 

HIGHFIELDS - Prostitute services are still permitted to remain open, this is now classed as essential services for fear of the economic collapse of the town. Entry from the rear only.

 

OADBY AND WIGSTON- Now declared a NO GO ZONE (in 1984), if you must travel to this area please follow all diversions, traffic cones and signals, remain in your car, do not abandon your car, masks are not required as nothing is open

 

COALVILLE- Everyone must remain at home and self isolate until manufacturers can distribute gloves with 6 fingers. Please do not go to A&E for digit removal as they are a tad busy.

 

BRAUNSTONE- Do as you want, even Covid wouldn’t go to BRAUNSTONE!!

 

Stick to these guidelines and we'll get through it together.

All in this together folks 🙄👉🏾🗑

[DennisNedry]

I'm still allowed to take my car in for it's service in a couple of weeks, nip into town and go Christmas shopping...

...but I can't go with my wife to her 12 week scan of our first child.

 

Both gutted and furious.

 

 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

2 minutes ago, DennisNedry said:

I'm still allowed to take my car in for it's service in a couple of weeks, nip into town and go Christmas shopping...

...but I can't go with my wife to her 12 week scan of our first child.

 

Both gutted and furious.

 

 

 

 

It's a disgrace.  And people are accepting of it, or seem to be.  Sage are stringing the govt along and the mass testing/vaccination agenda will rumble on as long as they can keep it so.  There's more to this than what the govt want us to see and hear.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, DennisNedry said:

I'm still allowed to take my car in for it's service in a couple of weeks, nip into town and go Christmas shopping...

...but I can't go with my wife to her 12 week scan of our first child.

 

Both gutted and furious.

 

Sickening, it really is.

 

All the best to you both and your future newborn.

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

It's a disgrace.  And people are accepting of it, or seem to be.  Sage are stringing the govt along and the mass testing/vaccination agenda will rumble on as long as they can keep it so.  There's more to this than what the govt want us to see and hear.

...you do realise this sounds a mite anti vaxxer/tinfoil hat unless very well substantiated, yes? As well discussed above, that the UK government response has been incompetent doesn't mean there isn't a public health issue out there and that it should be allowed to run amok with all that entails.

 

(And by well substantiated, we're not talking about one or two mavericks with YouTube videos, just for clarity.)

Edited 27 November 2020 by leicsmac

[dsr-burnley]

7 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-what-counts-as-a-substantial-meal-how-rules-on-pub-drinking-could-work-in-tier-2-12143814

 

'However, on Friday an official spokesperson for the prime minister said drinkers will have to leave the premises once they have finished their food.'

I wonder if you could go into the pub and order your plate of cheesy chips, only to be told "there is a backlog in the kitchen and there will be a three hour delay" - and bring out a plate of nuts to show willing, and allow you a pint of beer or three while you are waiting.

[dsr-burnley]

12 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

We're currently averaging about 400+ deaths per day, almost 3000 per week, not to mention an unknown number surviving with long-term damage.

Fortunately, those figures should dip again shortly, now that infection rates are falling and hospitalisation figures leveling off, due to lockdown. 

 

However, under the new tiering system, non-essential shops are opening again - in time for Christmas shopping crowds. The Govt has also announced a relaxation over Christmas. A lot of people will meet family/friends and use public transport.

There alone you have ways in which further infections are baked in - which argues for a stricter approach in other ways, particularly in winter when more people fall ill of other causes and need hospitalisation.

 

I don't do everything the Govt tells me to do. I didn't vote for this Govt. I think it's done a disastrous job of handling the pandemic in many ways. But adopting a strict approach in these circumstances is correct. In fact, I think they have adopted too lax an approach re. the 23rd-27th December relaxation and some of us will pay for that with our lives or the lives of those close to us in Jan/Feb.

 

As for why some places are in higher tiers than before:

- Some have infection rates that are still high (Manchester, Leicester) or that have risen recently (Kent, Bristol)

- Some have hospitals under pressure (Devon)

- There are other factors in the calculation that I know less about: e.g. consideration of infection rates among over-60s

- Plus the new tiering system relaxes some activities (shops, gyms, hairdressers) so, when Covid is still a massive danger, it makes sense to be strict with other activities

 

I appreciate that some people are in a more difficult situation than me (I work from home anyway) but that's an argument for better Govt support for people and businesses that are struggling, particularly as the vaccine is on the horizon.

I absolutely support criticism of the Govt strategy on that score.

 

When will I say "enough is enough"? Well, vaccination is expected to be rolled out by the spring for the most vulnerable, so showing patience until then seems entirely reasonable, to protect lives and health - who knows, it might even be the life or health of someone you care about.

I'm still waiting, and have been waiting for a long time, for someone to say "we need this lockdown to reduce the number of covid deaths, because although we know that lockdown itself causes deaths and hastens the onset of dementia, as well as storing up future problems by the damage to the national economy as well as creating individual poverty, we still think that lockdown is necessary because ..."

 

All we get is "people are dying of coronavirus, so whatever it takes, we must not let anyone die of coronavirus".

 

Where are the reasoned estimates of the pros and cons of lockdown? 

[urban.spaceman]

[Guest Fktf]

29 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

I'm still waiting, and have been waiting for a long time, for someone to say "we need this lockdown to reduce the number of covid deaths, because although we know that lockdown itself causes deaths and hastens the onset of dementia, as well as storing up future problems by the damage to the national economy as well as creating individual poverty, we still think that lockdown is necessary because ..."

 

All we get is "people are dying of coronavirus, so whatever it takes, we must not let anyone die of coronavirus".

 

Where are the reasoned estimates of the pros and cons of lockdown? 

It's never been about the death numbers though, has it?

[Guest Fktf]

4 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

I'm still allowed to take my car in for it's service in a couple of weeks, nip into town and go Christmas shopping...

...but I can't go with my wife to her 12 week scan of our first child.

 

Both gutted and furious.

 

 

 

If you can spare 50 quid, go private. Me and my missus did a few times in her pregnancy because I couldn't get in the hospital with her.

[leicsmac]

41 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

I'm still waiting, and have been waiting for a long time, for someone to say "we need this lockdown to reduce the number of covid deaths, because although we know that lockdown itself causes deaths and hastens the onset of dementia, as well as storing up future problems by the damage to the national economy as well as creating individual poverty, we still think that lockdown is necessary because ..."

 

All we get is "people are dying of coronavirus, so whatever it takes, we must not let anyone die of coronavirus".

 

Where are the reasoned estimates of the pros and cons of lockdown? 

"....not doing so stands a significant chance of a collapse of the NHS over the winter which will then result in far more human and economic cost than lockdown would."

 

That seems reasonably self-evident tbh, but yes - it would be nice if someone were to actually say it a few times for emphasis, because sometimes people need reminding, evidently.

[Kopfkino]

https://voxeu.org/article/lockdowns-and-uk-economic-performance
 

A panel of academic economists:

63% thought the UK suffered no, or little, economic impact as a result of lockdown vs the counter factual of no government intervention. 
73% thought the damage from the latest lockdown was likely to be small compared to mild social distancing over the summer.

70% thought there was a small or no trade off between lives saved and the economy.

 

In all cases, your perception, and weighting, of small likely affects your response to this. However, should the panel be representative (and I’d say, from what I have read throughout it comes out slightly more against lockdowns) then if you put the economists in charge then they’d not be doing what ‘but the economy’ folk want. Of course, had the economists been in charge, they’d have quickly recognised that not locking down in the face of rising cases was a time inconsistent choice and therefore would have locked down early.

 

[dsr-burnley]

32 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

"....not doing so stands a significant chance of a collapse of the NHS over the winter which will then result in far more human and economic cost than lockdown would."

 

That seems reasonably self-evident tbh, but yes - it would be nice if someone were to actually say it a few times for emphasis, because sometimes people need reminding, evidently.

No, it is not self-evident.  Why was Leicester in lockdown in March?  Because the NHS might collapse.  Why was leicester in lockdown in April?  Because the NHS might collapse.  Why was Leicester in lockdown in My?  In June?  July?  August?  September?  Sooner or later, they ought to come up with a better answer than "Because the NHS might collapse" with the answer to the follow-up question asking for the reasoning being "because I say so".  

 

We went into lockdown in March, for 3 weeks, to save the NHS from collapse.  The three weeks have now finished.  Can you point me to any other statistics, perhaps more detailed than the Chicken Licken "The Sky is Falling" one, that indicate the comparative costs of various forms of action now?  Sooner or later they, someone will have to look at what the government did and what they didn't do and especially what they should have done.  And if they found out that they have saved 50,000 lives at the cost of 100,000 lives, wouldn't it be a good idea to ask the question now rather than 100,000 lives later?  Macmillan Cancer Support - experts int he field - say that 50,000 fewer cancers have been diagnosed this year compared with last, and 33,000 people have not been treated for known cancers who should have been treated.  Where is that factored into the "we must have lockdown" analysis?

 

I'm not even saying that lockdown is wrong.  I suspect it might be, but I don't know.  But why do they refuse even to ask the question?

[leicsmac]

21 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

No, it is not self-evident.  Why was Leicester in lockdown in March?  Because the NHS might collapse.  Why was leicester in lockdown in April?  Because the NHS might collapse.  Why was Leicester in lockdown in My?  In June?  July?  August?  September?  Sooner or later, they ought to come up with a better answer than "Because the NHS might collapse" with the answer to the follow-up question asking for the reasoning being "because I say so".  

 

We went into lockdown in March, for 3 weeks, to save the NHS from collapse.  The three weeks have now finished.  Can you point me to any other statistics, perhaps more detailed than the Chicken Licken "The Sky is Falling" one, that indicate the comparative costs of various forms of action now?  Sooner or later they, someone will have to look at what the government did and what they didn't do and especially what they should have done.  And if they found out that they have saved 50,000 lives at the cost of 100,000 lives, wouldn't it be a good idea to ask the question now rather than 100,000 lives later?  Macmillan Cancer Support - experts int he field - say that 50,000 fewer cancers have been diagnosed this year compared with last, and 33,000 people have not been treated for known cancers who should have been treated.  Where is that factored into the "we must have lockdown" analysis?

 

I'm not even saying that lockdown is wrong.  I suspect it might be, but I don't know.  But why do they refuse even to ask the question?

For what it's worth, I agree that the government dropped the ball post-lockdown back in March/April. The response over here in Korea shows that - there was a targetted restriction, and then when cases were down to a manageable amount, the government reopened stuff and adopted a much more flexible approach backed by jumping on outbreaks when and where they occurred locally. The UK did the first thing, but then not the second, and that has cost them dearly in terms of public confidence.

 

However, as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter and there is a corresponding increase in cases in many places, allowing Covid to spread further will then lead to a subsequent spike in hospitalisations and place possibly terminal stress on the NHS. We saw it stretching at the seams in the spring, and we've seen enough from the US and from other places in Europe to see what happens when such systems collapse or become close to doing so - where would those cancer patients be then? Kopf above posted a decent article on the economic comparison of lockdown vs no action.

 

I'm not entirely sure that a lockdown or whatever it is the UK is calling their tiered restrictions right now is the right pathway either - but I'm also struggling to come up with a better alternative that would cost less in human and economic terms too. What would you do?

[Mickyblueeyes]

Leicestershire areas with the most cases:

 

The neighbourhoods are:

• Loughborough Storer & Queen's Park - 970 cases
• Oadby North & East - 782 cases
• Loughborough - University - 693 cases
• Thurmaston - 419 cases
• Oadby South & West - 392 cases
• Loughborough Lemyngton & Hastings - 380 cases
• Wigston Town - 341 cases
• Birstall Wanlip & Riverside - 328 cases
• Braunstone Town - 319 cases
• Loughborough - Shelthorpe & Woodthorpe - 312 cases
• Enderby & Glen Parva - 306 cases
• Houghton,Thurby & Scraptoft - 302 cases
• Mountsorrel & Rothley - 291 cases
• Glenfield - 269 cases
• South Wigston - 265 cases

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/leicestershire-neighbourhoods-most-coronavirus-cases-4745362